241 replies to this topic

[John Drake]

David Cameron has said the British people must "have their say" on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-21148282

My guess is this referendum will never happen. Far too vague a commitment, as always: a vote on an as yet unspecified treaty renegotiation which may or may not be countenanced by the rest of the EU anyway. It's just something unpopular politicians say to buy themselves peace with their own backbenchers, get a few friendly headlines in the tabloids and hope it will stave off losing votes in marginal constituencies to UKIP.

But, if a referendum were to happen now, how would you vote and why?

Personally, I'd vote to stay in. It's a big economic club right on our doorstep. Walking out of the door won't stop its influence on the UK but it will prevent the UK having any influence on what it does. That would be madness, IMO.

Plus, I've never believed all that straight banana twaddle the tabloids peddle, and I look at many of those whose voices cry loudest against Europe like Nigel Farage and most of those on the right of the Tory Party and find I disagree with pretty much everything they say or believe in on most other issues, so why would I believe them to be right about the EU?

That said, I'm not against having a referendum, if it finally lances the boil and shuts these people up once and for all. I just wouldn't dream of voting Tory to get one.

[steef]

Stay in it. It is obviously going through some troubles at the moment but these things generally go in cycles. Things should improve and when they do I dom't think it will be good to be on the outside looking in.

[steef]

Stay in it. It is obviously going through some troubles at the moment but these things generally go in cycles. Things should improve and when they do I don't think it will be good to be on the outside looking in.

[Futtocks]

Stay in.

With Cameron's announcement, if the Conservatives win the next General Election* we can expect a tidal wave of scaremongering xenophobic half-truths and downright lies across the usual suspects in the media. Oh, joy...

*promising a referendum will probably get Cameron plenty of votes from people who would have intended to vote for UKIP, which is at least a small consolation if it marginalises those tosspots.

[Steve May]

That said, I'm not against having a referendum, if it finally lances the boil and shuts these people up once and for all.

It wouldn't shut them up for more than a couple of years.

[Griff9of13]

To leave would be economic suicide especially for the parts of the UK outside the M25. Our regions rely heavily on EU grants for capital development. Do you really think a London centric government would re-direct the saved EU money away from the capital and into the regions such as the north? If we were to leave the EU and an independent (if the vote goes that way) Scotland were to stay in things would become very interesting.

Maybe the north of England could join an independent Scotland, we could be better off.?

[JohnM]

1. In
2. Referendum may never happen
3. Any commitment to being bound by the result?
4. Will we ever see and end to the CAP?

[Steve May]

To leave would be economic suicide especially for the parts of the UK outside the M25. Our regions rely heavily on EU grants for capital development. Do you really think a London centric government would re-direct the saved EU money away from the capital and into the regions such as the north? If we were to leave the EU and an independent (if the vote goes that way) Scotland were to stay in things would become very interesting.

Maybe the north of England could join an independent Scotland, we could be better off.?

One of the arguments against Scottish independence is the uncertainty of Scotland's future position in the EU. It does not seem to be clear that a newly independent Scotland would automatically be an EU member.

But now, thanks to Calamity Dave and his habit of not really thinking things through very deeply, Scotland's future in the EU is uncertain regardless. He has, probably unwittingly, taken a plank of the argument away.

I do wonder if Cameron will be the last UK Prime Minister. That would be a terrible legacy for a Conservative and Unionist PM.

[D9000]

In. There's an old saying about tents and urination comes to mind.

[Wolford6]

Cameron's playing for time. What use is a promise of a referendum some time in the next seven years, but only if the Tories win the next election. He might as well promise to have a referendum some time in the next seven years to bring back the death penalty, but only if the Tories win the next election.

In both cases, in a referendum, the public are likely to give the response he doesn't want. Neither does Miliband think any differently.

It's an empty political gesture and a fudge to prevent the electorate from having a fair say on whether or not to stay in.


At that election, vote UKIP and force the issue.

Ce message a été modifié par Wolford6 - 23 janvier 2013 - 02:00 .

[gingerjon]

Support for leaving the EU has dropped 20 points since Ukip's poll rise forced the issue.

By the time the referendum comes we'll be securely in but grumbling.

[Steve May]

Cameron's playing for time. ...

He certainly is.

It's an empty political gesture and a fudge to prevent the electorate from having a fair say on whether or not to stay in.

It has nothing to do with preventing the electorate having a fair say on anything. He wants to kill this as a focus of sedition and mutiny on his backbenches and take the wind out of UKIPs sails. You are quite correct though, that it is an empty political gesture.

At that election, vote UKIP and force the issue.

I'd rather cut my balls off with pinking shears than vote UKIP.

[Ackroman]

One of the arguments against Scottish independence is the uncertainty of Scotland's future position in the EU. It does not seem to be clear that a newly independent Scotland would automatically be an EU member.

But now, thanks to Calamity Dave and his habit of not really thinking things through very deeply, Scotland's future in the EU is uncertain regardless. He has, probably unwittingly, taken a plank of the argument away.

I do wonder if Cameron will be the last UK Prime Minister. That would be a terrible legacy for a Conservative and Unionist PM.

It makes sense to see how the Scottish get on with independence first before the rest of us have a referendum but this is not about David Cameron's power, more the lack of it.

Anyway, for me I don't get the scaremongering against leaving the EU. The EU won't shut the door in our face like a jilted lover. They'll be looking to keep hold of as much of the positive trade balance that already exists.

[Steve May]

Support for leaving the EU has dropped 20 points since Ukip's poll rise forced the issue.

By the time the referendum comes we'll be securely in but grumbling.

I think one of the problems is that UKIP are a pretty odd bunch. "Normal" people aren't going to be swayed by Nigel Farage and his golf club chums.

In an actual referendum with a real campaign they'd split the electorate into the usual Daily Mailers and everyone else.

[Wolford6]

I'd rather cut my balls off with pinking shears than vote UKIP.

I appreciate the offer.

[Ackroman]

I'd rather cut my balls off with pinking shears than vote UKIP.

Certainly he's trying to put them firmly on a European agenda and not a domestic one to get back into office. Then he'll kick the referendum into the long grass.

[gingerjon]

I think one of the problems is that UKIP are a pretty odd bunch.

I've just been having a boozy lunch with a member of the Labour party about this. Well, it was about something else but after a few glasses we got on to Farage.

We agreed that - despite wanting to punch Cameron in the nuts repeatedly until he howls - the Tories are playing a good game here. They're neutralising why vote Ukip with the referendum whilst also getting the golf club bores to sound forth on topics other than Europe. Ukip may get 10+% in the election but they won't get an MP and then afterwards they will become the Veritas Party they were always destined to be.

Ce message a été modifié par gingerjon - 23 janvier 2013 - 02:21 .

[Wolford6]

... the Tories are playing a good game here. They're neutralising why vote Ukip with the referendum whilst also getting the golf club bores to sound forth on topics other than Europe.

Quite right, there are other issues. Let's talk about immigration, the percentage of crime caused by ethnic minorities, the Afghan War, the lack of state-school-educated men and women in the cabinet and MP's expenses. Oh, and how much did the Olympics cost?

Cameron and Miliband should both be really comfortable with those discussions.

[Steve May]

I've just been having a boozy lunch with a member of the Labour party about this. Well, it was about something else but after a few glasses we got on to Farage.

We agreed that - despite wanting to punch Cameron in the nuts repeatedly until he howls - the Tories are playing a good game here. They're neutralising why vote Ukip with the referendum whilst also getting the golf club bores to sound forth on topics other than Europe. Ukip may get 10+% in the election but they won't get an MP and then afterwards they will become the Veritas Party they were always destined to be.

I'm not convinced this will take UKIP out of the equation. Farage may be a vile pub bore, but he's probably the canniest operator in British politics this side of Alex Salmond. He won't shut up just because there's going to be a referendum. Between now and then there will have to be "negotiations" to influence. Imagine the relentless commentary from UKIP on that one. Every move Cameron makes is open to criticism.

And then there will be a whole referendum to campaign on. A whole referendum! Such fun! I think the game is only just beginning for Farage and his odd UKIP chums.

Cameron may well have neutralised this issue, or he may have opened a can of worms. I just don't know. We just will have to wait and see.

[Steve May]

Ukip may get 10+% in the election but they won't get an MP and then afterwards they will become the Veritas Party they were always destined to be.

As you well know, the key thing is not how many MPs UKIP get (probably none), but how many Tories will lose their seats because the vote splits.