All weekend polls are now out (see http://ukpollingrepo...g/archives/6920
)Angus Reid/Sunday Express
have the Conservatives on 30% (up three) and Labour on 39% (down three) – the online version of the article doesn’t mention the UKIP or Lib Dem scores. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday.ComRes/IoS/Sunday Mirror
has the Conservatives up 5 on 33%, Labour unchanged on 39%, UKIP down 4 points on 10%. As I wrote yesterday, some of this appears to be due to ComRes treating likelihood to vote differently in their December poll, but even with consistent treatment of likelihood to vote the poll would have shown the Conservatives up 4 or 5 points, though it would probably also have shown Labour down slightly.Survation/Mail on Sunday
has the Conservatives on 31%, up two, Labour unchanged on 38% and UKIP down two on 14%.YouGov in the Sunday Times
has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 7%. Compared to the average of YouGov’s polls last week that equates to the Conservatives being up by about two, Labour down by about two and UKIP down by about one.
In each individual poll the changes are relatively small, but they are consistent across the pollsters, so we can be fairly confident that the Conservatives have enjoyed a small boost from the referendum promise and the positive publicity around it. UKIP appear to have dropped slightly, but not massively (the biggest drop they had, that in the ComRes poll, was mostly due to methodological variation). The shift is hardly a game changing degree though.
So, a small swing from UKIP to Conservatives, and a lessening of Labour's lead compared to recent weeks. Nothing earth-shattering, but it is a trend that probably will continue as this parliament continues.