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Worrying SL score margins


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#101 hindle xiii

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 12:58 PM

The score margins have been increasing for some time - they should be decreasing. If they arent then Houston, we have a problem. Fans want close games

So the stay away fans knew Leeds - Hull and Saints - Hudds were gonna be so one-sided? Clever dicks.

On Odsal Top baht 'at.


#102 Lounge Room Lizard

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 01:13 PM

What is worrying is that there are so many people who are so against the NRL they wont take off their blinkers and enjoy what is a great and thoroughly entertaining competition!

What is also worrying is that there are so many people that are of the opinion that the NRL is untouchable and graced by superhumans. There is a huge amount of quality in Super League that would walk in to many NRL teams.

I love both competitions, think they are both entertaining, and dont see why people cant just appreciate both without the need to denigrate one over the other.


The NRL is the best quality Competition and where the best and most skillful players are. The teams are much more equal though certain teams are usually in the mix like Melbourne Storm or Manly. But also lesser teams like Cronulla, Souths, can easily make the play offs after a few years of missing the playoffs. Watching the likes of Slater, Barba, Thurston, Hayne, Marshall etc is never boring for me. But I also appreciate the leadership skills of Smith and Gallen and the much better defence and the way its much harder to break down. I would like to see it grow and have a team in Perth, Central Queensland and NZ as well as a second team in Brisbane area.

SL is good to watch but its quality is way off the NRL. I would rather watch an NRL game than SL even when my team was in SL simply because of that. The way SL clubs do things and the recent decisions I can only see the gulf in standards between the two comps widening. I just cant get into watching SL as much as I do the NRL.The other thing that puts me off watching SL is the Sky team who just do my head in. The Australians are not perfect. Gus Gould is annoying but he has been there and done it and is very well connected in the game. Peter Sterling is very good how he views things and when you add the likes of Johns, Lockyer and Greg Alexander, Gordon Tallis who have all played at the highest level in recent years and are or have been involved in coaching clubs or players then its much easier to understand and enjoy the game for me.

#103 gingerjon

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 01:43 PM

More people getting sky in general (an upward long term trend)
Better stadia
More geographical spread of RL at grass roots


So crowds and viewing figures are going up?

I just want to make absolutely certain this is a FACT before we get on to why crowds and viewing figures are falling.
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#104 Padge

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 11:56 PM

Bump

!7 - !7
22 - 22

Massive blowouts

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#105 Dave T

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:58 AM

Bump

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Massive blowouts

Indeed - followed by the blowout at HJ last night - although Lobby wont class that as a close game as there was more than one score in it!

#106 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 01:46 PM

God you gotta hate statistics eh? Well not me, I love them!

Let's compare the average margin between this year and last year.
2013 Week 1, 25.7 points per game.
2012 Week 1, 12.3 points per game.

Here's where Lobby stepped in. First week and there were some big scorelines. However, many of us at this stage pointed out it was pointless because one of those blowouts was an incredible shock result - Huddersfield at Saints.

2013 Week 2, 15.42 points per game.
2012 Week 2, 27 points per game.

As you can see, big turnaround as week 2 was really bad for scorelines last year with this year being not so bad.

2013 Week 3 (so far), 12 points per game.
2012 Week 3, 14 points per game.

We have 4 games remaining but all games are 8 points or less on the handicap meaning blowouts are unlikely.

Season so far,
2013 18.67 points per game.
2012 17.47 points per game.

As you can see, drawing conclusions from such a small collection of games was rather silly. Things are looking like they are more than evening themselves out.

I don't have the time or the inclination to look at the average points per game over the last few seasons but Neil Barraclough did an analysis of the Super League playoffs winning margins; where you would expect the winning margins to be somewhat tighter.

When we had a top 5 playoff from 98-01, the average winning margin was 16.58.
When we had a top 6 playoff from 02-08, the average winning margin was 15.29.
Since we have had a top 8 playoff, the average winning margin has been 18.32.

So it looks like the average margin between games is usually around 15-18 points. At the end of today, our average could easily be between these 2 figures for the regular season. Doesn't look like anything to worry about at this early stage.

Edit: adjusted for Wigan-Hudds game.

Edited by Maximus Decimus, 16 February 2013 - 04:46 PM.


#107 Ant

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 02:27 PM

And in terms of the modern game, anything less than 3 scores is nearly a draw...

#108 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:26 PM

The modern game is a valid point.

Lobby points to a completely different time but blames all the differences on the 10m rule.

It's the perfect example of the 'false cause' or 'non-sequitar' argument. Even if we accept that scorelines are wider than they were in the past it does not follow that the 10m rule has to be the cause. For instance, the 10m rule came in in 1992. There are a number of differences in the game since then such as:

Fitter players
Players doing more gym work and therefore being bigger
Summer rugby
Other rule changes
Increased professionalism off the field
Changes in the style of the game
Changes in technique (tackling being the perfect example)

Many of these come under the umbrella of full-time professionalism. The game is now played by finely-tuned athletes in games that are highly analysed by backroom staff. The result has seen much more efficient methods of playing the game. There is a lot less off-the-cuff play because it doesn't win as often as playing the percentages. The modern game is about repeat sets, applying pressure and executing at the right time.

The result often means that we often see an arm-wrestle with teams pulling away in the final stages as the cumulative factors take their toll. Also, the game requires such commitment that once it drops as the result goes, teams find it much easier to score.

Edited by Maximus Decimus, 16 February 2013 - 04:28 PM.


#109 Ant

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 05:33 PM

Exactly, blow outs happen now because one team simply cannot keep pace with the other

#110 dkw

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:02 PM

Oh look, another blow out In the giants v warriors game, and the bulls v tigers is just embarrassingly one sided.......

#111 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:31 PM

Exactly, blow outs happen now because one team simply cannot keep pace with the other


This Bradford-Cas game is the perfect example of the modern game.

Really competitive for 65 mins and then one team gets a bit of a gap and pulls away when the game is already away from them. When it was 12-12 I thought Cas had had the better of the game and looked more likely.

Edited by Maximus Decimus, 16 February 2013 - 06:32 PM.


#112 shun

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:31 PM

The score margins have been increasing for some time - they should be decreasing. If they arent then Houston, we have a problem. Fans want close games

you dont half talk a load of s**te. :blink:

#113 Saintslass

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:42 PM

Really competitive for 65 mins and then one team gets a bit of a gap and pulls away when the game is already away from them. When it was 12-12 I thought Cas had had the better of the game and looked more likely.

You're not being serious, right? I mean, how many teams can defend against 13 men when they only have 11? I'm no expert in the game but even I can grasp the notion that such a scenario would prove to be a massive task to the side with 11 men.

Cas without Rangi Chase look a lot better this season than when he was playing last season. With a fit and firing and well behaved Rangi then apart from still being a bit weak in the forwards they should be no walkovers this season, assuming they can keep enough of their first choice team fit (but that applies to all teams really).

Edited by Saintslass, 16 February 2013 - 08:43 PM.


#114 Steve May

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:27 PM

Yes, I thought that, too. After all, there were only 82,976 bored Aussies at the 2012 Grand Final


It can't have been that many. I was there with a friend and neither of us are Aussies. Maybe it was 82,974 Aussies and two Poms.

No one seemed bored either.

That's me.  I'm done.


#115 The Parksider

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 10:08 PM

And in terms of the modern game, anything less than 3 scores is nearly a draw...


well said Ant........

#116 dkw

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 10:48 PM

This Bradford-Cas game is the perfect example of the modern game.

Really competitive for 65 mins and then one team gets a bit of a gap and pulls away when the game is already away from them. When it was 12-12 I thought Cas had had the better of the game and looked more likely.

So we are ignoring that cas had 2 players in the bin?

#117 Roy Boy

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM

I've done some delving and it appears you have much more chance of a blow out scoreline when the match is played with a prevailing Westerly running the length of the pitch.

Maybe if the grounds could be made on a huge turntable we could spin the pitches round and prevent this weakness in our game.

Another idea is huge wind machines fixed on the stadia roofs to counteract it .....

Then again this could all be cobblers a bit like the start of this thread!
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#118 JohnM

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:16 AM

It can't have been that many. I was there with a friend and neither of us are Aussies. Maybe it was 82,974 Aussies and two Poms.

No one seemed bored either.


That was my sarcastic response to Ant.

#119 Ant

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:34 AM

Clearly everyone was drunk, enough booze and even rounders baseball is interesting

#120 JohnM

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:11 AM

Sarcasm in return? :D Typically, Major League Baseball crowds are around 40K and there are I think around 80 home games a season, so clubs generally pull in about 3,500,000 speccies a season. I wish RL was as "boring"




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