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Worrying SL score margins


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#121 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:47 AM

You're not being serious, right? I mean, how many teams can defend against 13 men when they only have 11? I'm no expert in the game but even I can grasp the notion that such a scenario would prove to be a massive task to the side with 11 men.

Cas without Rangi Chase look a lot better this season than when he was playing last season. With a fit and firing and well behaved Rangi then apart from still being a bit weak in the forwards they should be no walkovers this season, assuming they can keep enough of their first choice team fit (but that applies to all teams really).


Talk about completely missing the point.

This was exactly my point. If you purely look at the result and see a 26 point victory then you would think we have seen another uncompetitive game. The reality was far from different, to the extent that at the 65 minute mark I thought Cas were more likely to get a result. I had a bet on Bradford at +8 and never felt confident I was going to win it until the players went off. In fact, I actually tweeted during the game that I thought I'd just thrown my money away.

The actual reason for the blowout is irrelevant, hense why I didn't bring it up. It was to show how quickly one team can get away from another one once the close result has gone. Of course this was facilitated by the sin-binnings but the fact is that we saw a competitive game look like an uncompetitive game because of 18 points scored in the last 10 minutes.

The nature of RL allows for quick flurries like this at the end of the game.

#122 tonyXIII

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:57 AM

The actual reason for the blowout is irrelevant, hense why I didn't bring it up. It was to show how quickly one team can get away from another one once the close result has gone. Of course this was facilitated by the sin-binnings but the fact is that we saw a competitive game look like an uncompetitive game because of 18 points scored in the last 10 minutes.

The nature of RL allows for quick flurries like this at the end of the game.


And, of course, there are plenty of us who like to see this. Why else would so many call for a reduction in the number of interchanges, which would lead to tiring defences and more "quick flurries" of tries at the end of the game?

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#123 RSN

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:08 PM

Apart from the Wigan v London game today the average winning margin in the 3 other games was 2 points.

#124 flyingking

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:15 PM

I am getting worried about all the draws we keep having in Superleague.
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#125 Saintslass

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:27 PM

I am getting worried about all the draws we keep having in Superleague.

:lol:

#126 Padge

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:49 PM

I am getting worried about all the draws we keep having in Superleague.

Don't worry, its just a figment of your imagination, close games never ever happen in SL, That's a Lobby fact.

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#127 dkw

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:02 PM

:lol: This thread gets funnier each week, I wonder if Lobby would care to respond to the scores form the past few weeks.

#128 Lobbygobbler

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:01 PM

:lol: This thread gets funnier each week, I wonder if Lobby would care to respond to the scores form the past few weeks.


Of course - lets see where we are after round ten.

Note that the margin comparison is with the game pre-SL (and pre the 10m and joke "scrums" we have now).

As I said, in a fully pro game we ought to have closer score margins than when RL was part time

#129 longboard

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:19 PM

I am getting worried about all the draws we keep having in Superleague.


Were these blow out draws? :)

#130 Padge

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:21 PM

As I said, in a fully pro game we ought to have closer score margins than when RL was part time


Why?. All teams were amateur, all teams are now pro, the margins shouldn't change just because players are full time.


Note that the margin comparison is with the game pre-SL (and pre the 10m and joke "scrums" we have now).


you have been shown time and time again that blow outs have always happened, why will you not accept this as fact when its there for all to see in the history books?

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#131 JohnM

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:34 PM

I agree about joke scrums though. Many's the time at Station Road in the last century when scrums were taken so seriously that teams would spend hours perfecting their scrums....during the game.

#132 Padge

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:47 PM

I agree about joke scrums though. Many's the time at Station Road in the last century when scrums were taken so seriously that teams would spend hours perfecting their scrums....during the game.

They did serve a useful purpose though, you could go to the bar or bog whilst they went through the resets and then the final penalty decision without missing any action.

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#133 Old Frightful

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 10:58 PM

They did serve a useful purpose though, you could go to the bar or bog whilst they went through the resets and then the final penalty decision without missing any action.

A bit like falling asleep before kick off in a Union game and not missing any action then?

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#134 Wellsy4HullFC

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 11:01 PM

Of course - lets see where we are after round ten.

So round one has some high scores, we can comment straight away.
Rounds two to four have close scores, we should wait until round ten.

Can you not see why people are ridiculing you for how you choose to criticise?!
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#135 l'angelo mysterioso

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 11:01 PM

Of course - lets see where we are after round ten.

Note that the margin comparison is with the game pre-SL (and pre the 10m and joke "scrums" we have now).

As I said, in a fully pro game we ought to have closer score margins than when RL was part time


well you were prepared to see where we are after round one.

if you want tro see joke scrums, chck out the so called competitiv ones of yore.

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#136 gingerjon

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 07:25 AM

As I said, in a fully pro game we ought to have closer score margins than when RL was part time


Does the altogether closer NRL have the 5m rule, semi professional players and proper scrummaging?
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#137 Lobbygobbler

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:29 PM

Does the altogether closer NRL have the 5m rule, semi professional players and proper scrummaging?


No - that is why it is #### (regarding point 1and point 3). I really dont enjoy watching NRL, and never watched it before I finally got shut of premier sports last year

#138 Ant

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:32 PM

You don't enjoy watching anything that isn't a dour game in a mud bath in winter do you

#139 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 05:34 PM

Of course - lets see where we are after round ten.

Note that the margin comparison is with the game pre-SL (and pre the 10m and joke "scrums" we have now).

As I said, in a fully pro game we ought to have closer score margins than when RL was part time


Ha, the hypocrisy of this post.

So if the margin comparison was with the game pre-SL, why did you post it after 2 games this season and then state,?

With all SL clubs supposedly on a level pegging we should be seeing games becoming closer with very few large margins. In fact it is going the other way.


This has nothing to do with the game pre-SL, it is completely about the here and now. The title proves it also, 'worrying SL scorelines.' If we're talking about scorelines that we've had for nearly 20 years then they are hardly worrying.

You are in fact making an absurd statement based on two games that the margins are getting further apart. In fact saying, 'let's wait until there have been 10 rounds,' proves that you were suggesting that the margins are getting bigger as you think that they still will get further apart.

Edited by Maximus Decimus, 26 February 2013 - 05:35 PM.


#140 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 05:50 PM

God you gotta hate statistics eh? Well not me, I love them!

Let's compare the average margin between this year and last year.
2013 Week 1, 25.7 points per game.
2012 Week 1, 12.3 points per game.

Here's where Lobby stepped in. First week and there were some big scorelines. However, many of us at this stage pointed out it was pointless because one of those blowouts was an incredible shock result - Huddersfield at Saints.

2013 Week 2, 15.42 points per game.
2012 Week 2, 27 points per game.

As you can see, big turnaround as week 2 was really bad for scorelines last year with this year being not so bad.

2013 Week 3 (so far), 12 points per game.
2012 Week 3, 14 points per game.

We have 4 games remaining but all games are 8 points or less on the handicap meaning blowouts are unlikely.

Season so far,
2013 18.67 points per game.
2012 17.47 points per game.

As you can see, drawing conclusions from such a small collection of games was rather silly. Things are looking like they are more than evening themselves out.

I don't have the time or the inclination to look at the average points per game over the last few seasons but Neil Barraclough did an analysis of the Super League playoffs winning margins; where you would expect the winning margins to be somewhat tighter.

When we had a top 5 playoff from 98-01, the average winning margin was 16.58.
When we had a top 6 playoff from 02-08, the average winning margin was 15.29.
Since we have had a top 8 playoff, the average winning margin has been 18.32.

So it looks like the average margin between games is usually around 15-18 points. At the end of today, our average could easily be between these 2 figures for the regular season. Doesn't look like anything to worry about at this early stage.

Edit: adjusted for Wigan-Hudds game.


Update

Round 3 2012 - 14 points per game
Round 3 2013 - 18.57 points per game

Round 4 2012 - 19.71 points per game
Round 4 2013 - 12.67 points per game

Overall so far 2012 - 18.08 (26 games)
Overall so far 2013 - 18.30 (27 games)

So this "widening" gap is now a massive 0.22 points per game after round 4.




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