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Eastleigh By-Election: Who would you vote for?


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55 replies to this topic

Poll: Who would you vote for in the Eastleigh By-Election? (25 member(s) have cast votes)

Who would you vote for in the Eastleigh By-Election?

  1. COLIN BEX - Wessex Regionalists (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. DAVID BISHOP - Elvis Loves Pets Party (3 votes [12.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.00%

  3. JIM DUGGAN - Peace Party (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. RAY HALL - Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party (2 votes [8.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

  5. HOWLING LAUD HOPE - Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party (2 votes [8.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

  6. MARIA HUTCHINGS - Conservative (2 votes [8.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

  7. DIANE JAMES - UK Independence Party (3 votes [12.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.00%

  8. DR IAIN MACLENNAN - National Health Action Party (2 votes [8.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

  9. KEVIN MILBURN - Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. JOHN O'FARRELL - Labour (5 votes [20.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.00%

  11. DARREN PROCTER - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (2 votes [8.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.00%

  12. DANNY STUPPLE - Independent (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  13. MIKE THORNTON - Liberal Democrats (3 votes [12.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.00%

  14. MICHAEL WALTERS - English Democrats (1 votes [4.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#41 John Drake

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:32 AM

Whilst AV wasn't great it was an improvement on FPTP. Small steps and all... they'd never have got anywhere in a referendum for full proportional representation with STV. So yes, getting the referendum, for me still counts as a success.

It wasn't Labour encouraging people to vote yes! Milliband was actually clever in the run up to the referendum. He supported AV (to appeal to Lib Dem voters I assume), yet ALL his party big beasts were in the no campaign. That always felt strategic to me.


That referendum defeat was their most spectacular and crushing failure. A disaster that has set back the cause of electoral reform for years. Their big chance to achieve a lasting change and they totally blew it by allowing themselves to be completely outmaneouvred by the Tories, alienating Labour and not being able to enthuse genuine supporters of PR either.

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#42 JohnM

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:48 AM

In my opinion, QT was particularly poor last night. Hamilton is the sort of person that will attract people that fit the UKIP template. Loach made maybe a couple of good points but he clearly doesn't do irony.

Perry represented to me almost but not quite the worst of Tory MPs

The congenitally interruptive Eagle - who had the temerity to complain about being interrupted herself when all night long she was wittering over the top of everyone - is living proof as to why Labour will not win the next election. Why? In April 2008 Eagle took part in a debate in Parliament on the UK economy in which the Liberal Democrats tabled a motion suggesting that the country was facing an 'extreme bubble in the housing market and the 'risk of recession'. Eagle responded stating "Fortunately for all of us...that colourful and lurid fiction has no real bearing on the macro-economic reality." see here

#43 RidingPie

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:57 AM

That referendum defeat was their most spectacular and crushing failure. A disaster that has set back the cause of electoral reform for years. Their big chance to achieve a lasting change and they totally blew it by allowing themselves to be completely outmaneouvred by the Tories, alienating Labour and not being able to enthuse genuine supporters of PR either.


But since the alternatives political parties have never supported anything further than AV, I still view getting the question asked as a success. If Labour has supported it wholeheartedly it would have been far more difficult for the conservatives to dominate the narrative.

Of course AV+ was of course the solution recommended to Tony Blair, who had a manifesto pledge to implement electoral reform. He and the Labour party then went on to the spectacular sum of no electoral reform whilst (and probably because) he had a significant majority.

#44 nadera78

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:00 AM

Labour did a bit worse than I expected but I doubt that will worry them overly - it does mean that a 1997-style sweep across the country must be out of the question in the next election. It looks like Ukip, in the south at least, are safe protest vote for disaffected Tories. Interesting opinion offered this morning was that for all the comment made about the relative silence of the Tory candidate the Ukip one was also mute for vast amounts of time - and the suggestion is that had it been Farage himself wailing on then their result would have been a lot worse. It is noticeable that he himself doesn't poll particularly well for all his bluster. If Ukip are to have any chance of holding votes or even winning a seat they'll need to be on the best behaviour from now until May 2015 and can they be trusted to do that?

Labour don't need to ditch Milliband - in fact they need to realise that their lead is holding up very strongly despite the negative perceptions. People in general don't like politicians to act like politicians so the worst thing they could do is starting getting all Machiavelli at the exact same time as the Tories are about to implode.

I don't think immigration will be the main focus of the election. If it's anything other than the economy I'll eat Wolford's faux Celtic nationalism, although foreigners taking jobs may play a part in that. The obvious response is that there needs to be investment in industry, education and training ... and the Coalition has cut back on all of those things. Not having to come up with an alternative plan - indeed, having had much the same plan - is why it's easier in opposition.


As soon as the likes of Farage and Hamilton open their mouths any appeal UKIP has to traditional Labour voters disappears. They immediately remind everyone that when you get past their position on the EU, which in fairness is shared by lots of people on the left, UKIP is little more than a group of ultra-Thatcherites. When they manage to put people on the ground and in the local media who sound even halfway normal their support rises. The problem they'll face at the next election is that whatever national media attention they do get will be focused entirely on the people who deter voters from supporting them,
"Just as we had been Cathars, we were treizistes, men apart."
Jean Roque, Calendrier-revue du Racing-Club Albigeois, 1958-1959

#45 Griff9of13

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:44 AM

In my opinion, QT was particularly poor last night. Hamilton is the sort of person that will attract people that fit the UKIP template. Loach made maybe a couple of good points but he clearly doesn't do irony.

Perry represented to me almost but not quite the worst of Tory MPs

The congenitally interruptive Eagle - who had the temerity to complain about being interrupted herself when all night long she was wittering over the top of everyone - is living proof as to why Labour will not win the next election. Why? In April 2008 Eagle took part in a debate in Parliament on the UK economy in which the Liberal Democrats tabled a motion suggesting that the country was facing an 'extreme bubble in the housing market and the 'risk of recession'. Eagle responded stating "Fortunately for all of us...that colourful and lurid fiction has no real bearing on the macro-economic reality." see here


I went to school with her and her sister, Maria Eagle. All I can say about them is that they were extremely intelligent (she was under 18s chess champion) , but unfortunately they both seem lacking in even the most basic common sense (not an un-common phenomenon with some very bright people). Their father, Anton is still active in the local Labour party - another bunch of witless clowns IMO. I have been considering taking a more active role in politics in the last couple of years, but frankly knowing a fair few of the major players in the local party puts me right off - I really don't think I could stomach more than half an hour in the same room as some of them. :ph34r:
"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

#46 JohnM

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:57 AM

the sad thing is, I think, that your experience is not unusual, whatever the party.

#47 Wolford6

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 12:02 PM

Just working on one for (predominately white, working class) men in the north in their 50s and over who might want to go on living for as long as possible whilst being able to have a drink.

Bunch of scroungers.


That's brilliant news!

How much can you send me?
B)

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#48 Wolford6

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 08:59 PM

I think it's an indication that:
- the next election will be won and lost on immigration policy.

Sorry to disappoint, but no, it absolutely won't.


Plenty more articles like this are guaranteed to be in the papers before the next election.

http://www.dailymail...t-crime-soaring

http://www.dailymail...d-15-years.html

http://www.dailymail...kmark-chromeext

http://www.telegraph...error-plot.html

http://www.telegraph...gures-show.html

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#49 Griff9of13

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:14 PM

Sorry to disappoint you bet we're not all wail & torygraph reading xenaphopes.

The him-ig-rants thing is way down the list of stuff to worry about behind the economy, health, education etc.
"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

#50 Steve May

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:36 PM

One thing you can always be sure of after a By-Election is that everyone involved will claim to have won it in some way or other, regardless of how the actual votes have stacked up.

And it won't foretell the result of a General Election either, though lots of people will pretend that it does,


Quite right.

Here's my take on the result, as fair as I can make it.

1. Lib Dems - they'll be very, very relieved that they won after the week from hell. It's a great result for them. Eastleigh is a true Lib Dem stronghold and losing here would have been an absolute catastophe for them. As far as I know, they fought a typical LibDem local campaign. The activists will be really boosted by this and Clegg is probably safe now until the next election. This is, however, tempered by the fact that their vote share was significantly down. In fact, they dropped 15 points in the share of vote, which actually mirrors the drop they show in national opinion polls. They won here because they were so far ahead in the first place and UKIP split the Tory vote. This was not a big vote for the Lib Dems.
So, 9/10 on the night, but only 7/10 overall.

2. UKIP - The Daily Mailers just refuse to die. Clearly a terrific result, but not the breakthrough into Parliament that they need. They won't be able to repeat this in a general election, but they will be rightly delighted by this week. Cameron's offer of an in/out referendum seems, as I predicted, to have done nothing whatsoever to stop his UKIP problem. 9/10 - would be 10 but they didn't actually win.

3. Tories - an absolute disaster on every front. Being beaten by the Lib Dems would have been bad enough, but to lose to UKIP as well. Cameron is a dead man walking now. He may hang on, he may not, but he's the second coming of John Major. 3/10 at best.

4. Labour - a really interesting night for them. On the face of it disappointing, although they did slightly increase their share of the vote. Noone expected them to do well, and they didn't. But they do seem to have enjoyed themselves in the campaign and perhaps they've planted a seed for the local party to grow a little. Also, and this is the kicker, Labour need a fairly strong Lib Dem vote to hold off the Tories. If the Lib Dems collapse and half their vote moves to Labour, the Tories win the general election. 5/10 on the night, but not a bad week overall. A few papers have picked up on the result, but Ed's M and B won't be overly upset this weekend.

That's me.  I'm done.


#51 Steve May

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:54 PM

So they've not managed to get everyone's tax free allowance raise?


Which is nice, but there's a trick to this. You have to look at the overall amount that people have, particularly at the bottom. Although the government likes to tell us about the tax free allowance raise (and the Tories are trying to "steal" it from the Lib Dems) against a backdrop of VAT rises and benefit cuts, in particular the downright evil bedroom tax, it just doesn't add up.

They've not managed to stop a dreadful new secondary school qualification stopped?


So what. This is about the least of the education reforms. If Gove really wanted this, he wouldn't have given it up so easily. It was possibly even a tactical withdrawal along the lines of the abbatoir and the bus depot trick. There is an unfolding disaster happening in the education system, and the Lib Dems have done nothing to stop it.


Most impressively they actually got a referendum on a better voting system. It will be difficult for me to forgive labour for not supporting that one.


Which is almost completely irrelevent to real people in the real world. And they were totally outmaneouvred by the Tories on it anyway. As for Labour, Ed M was all for Yes. It's worth noticing that the Lib Dems made no attempt whatsoever to appeal to the Labour Party on this or any other issue - and still aren't doing.

They've actually tried to make the House of Lords more representative.


That's nice. Please tell us how that's coming along. Any movement yet?

As I said they were naive while negotiating te coalition document, and they've made mistakes but then so have every party.


They really were. Not that it matters. The coalition document isn't worth wiping your ###### on. I think the Lib Dems saw it as a joint governing plan, and the Tories saw it as a minor piece of paperwork they had to get signed off before they could start handing the countries assets over to their pals.


Anyway a confirmed lib dem win in Eastleigh now probably means the party won't be wiped out at the next election.


I don't think many people really thought they would be.

That's me.  I'm done.


#52 Johnoco

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 12:01 AM

Just working on one for (predominately white, working class) men in the north in their 50s and over who might want to go on living for as long as possible whilst being able to have a drink.

Bunch of scroungers.

Well I'm interested....please expand.

#53 Wolford6

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 02:17 AM

Well I'm interested....please expand.


Get to the back of the queue. I bagsed firsties.

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#54 gingerjon

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 07:19 AM

Well I'm interested....please expand.


In due course.

Which isn't me being deliberately arsey we just don't have everything worked through yet.
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#55 John Drake

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 11:25 AM

3. Tories - an absolute disaster on every front. Being beaten by the Lib Dems would have been bad enough, but to lose to UKIP as well. Cameron is a dead man walking now. He may hang on, he may not, but he's the second coming of John Major. 3/10 at best.


Except that John Major did actually win a General Election, which Dave hasn't managed at all yet. ;)

Major didn't win in '92 because he was to the right of the Tory Party though, he won because he wasn't. I think the real similarity between Major and Cameron is that they are both far more appealing to voters than the party they lead. Cameron may be a wolf in sheep's clothing (that's his real problem, he lacks centrist authenticity), but he is still their best chance of holding on to what they've got, let alone winning in 2015, IMO, regardless of what happened in Eastleigh.

It's all very well for the Tory right to look at the Eastleigh result and extrapolate from it the need for their party to lurch (further) to the right because UKIP did well, but it ignores the fact that their candidate in Eastleigh was already way to the right of where Cameron (correctly in my view) believes they need to be to win a General Election, and she was humiliated. Perhaps if they had stood a more moderate Tory candidate in Eastleigh, they could have mounted a stronger challenge to the Lib Dems. Instead, the usual bunch of deluded suspects in the Tory Party think they weren't right wing enough. :wacko:

The more Cameron is pushed into apeing UKIP on the right, the more he will alienate those centrist voters who almost gave him victory in 2010. It'll be where those votes go next that decides the outcome of the next General Election, if they bother to vote at all.

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#56 Trojan

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 12:09 PM

On the face of it Labour did very poorly at Eastleigh, but if they couldn't win it in 1997 they're never going to win it. I'm sure I read somewhere that they actually increased their share of their 1997 vote last Thursday. I wonder what Cameron will do? Will he swing to the right? The Lib/Dem's vote declined in Eastleigh by 14% and had it not been for UKIP the Tories would have taken the seat. For me this is remeniscent of the eighties when the Alliance kept Labour out of power for 14 years by splitting the left of centre vote.
I believe Philip Davies MP (Shipley) has said that in his constituency and constituencies like it in the North, a substantial UKIP vote plus LIb/Dems switching to Labour could see large numbers of Tories losing. Could Northern England emulate Scotland as a virtual Tory free zone? Will the Tories ditch Cameron and do a deal with UKIP? If things don't get better economically I reckon they may just do that.
"Your a one trick pony Trojan" - Parksider 10th March 2013