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Farage poles the electorate


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#161 JohnM

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 12:40 PM

none better, eh? He's certainly  sussed Ed Balls!   



#162 gingerjon

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 12:53 PM

I do indeed.  Bucks County Council is up every four years.

 

The ward has changed slightly since 2009 but broadly back then the Tories got 57%, Lib Dems got 20%, Ukip 15%, Labour & independents the rest.  Turnout was 44%.  We have candidates from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ukip and Labour this time round.  It would take a massive stay-at-home or swing from the Tories to Ukip to make much of a difference here.

 

Across Bucks as a whole last time the Tories won 46 seats, Lib Dems 11, everyone else 0.  The Tories got just shy of 50% of the vote, Lib Dems 29%, Ukip 14% (40% turnout).  County-wide there could be places where a Tory 'protest' vote to Ukip might have an impact but only if the Lib Dem vote turns out (which I suspect it won't) or in the odd places where Labour has an outside chance.

 

Turnout across the county now down to 30%.  Tories 36 (41%), UKIP 6 (27%), Lib Dems 5 (14%), Labour 1 (12%), Independent 1.

 

In my ward, turnout at 29%.  Tories 46%, UKIP 37%, Labour 9%, Lib Dems 8%.


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#163 tonyXIII

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 02:33 PM

The Lib/Dems have taken Malton from the Conservatives. 39% against 32% on a turnout of 31%. Not often that I back a winner. :lol:


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#164 T Dub

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:09 PM

about the only MP with any decency left in the commons is Dennis Skinner (I am not a socialist) however at least he is one who sticks up for his principals
.

CM

Like trying to sabotage a funeral recently? Not my sort of role model

#165 T Dub

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:11 PM

WELL DONE UKIP a vote for common sense and the working man:))))

A vote for the party that dares talk about some of the awkward subjects the others skirt around

At least this may open up a few debates about subjects that dare not speak their name, but which 25% of normal people are concerned about

#166 JohnM

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:46 PM

That's the problem with giving people the vote. They can't be trusted to vote the way they should. Its good to see Farage making everyone squirm: his comments about the elite, the professional politicians and the Westminster village have a resonance with many.   Labour have signally failed to win back the number of seats they lost during Blairs regime, the Conservatives have lost loads, the Lib Dems are still bigger than UKIP, the Greens have a few seats I think and UKIP have loads of seats, so it seems everyone has won lost won lost won lost

 

In our nearest town Boston, UKIP have won 5 out of the 7 county council seats.  Boston has a high number of East European immigrants - something like 15% or more of the population. The locals don't like them, this and the previous govt has not allocated any more resource to Boston  to cope with the influx, there is alleged to be a significant problem with drinking etc and so on and so on.

 

BUT: Boston has a low educational attainment and it is this ignorance that has created the opportunity for UKIP to thrive, winning vote from Labour as well as Tory. It is said that there is nothing so reactionary as the Labour working man..  The key issues seem to be East European immigration, the perceived  damage that the CAP has done to agriculture and the issue of gay marriage.   

 

Of course, Boston already had problems - its slated as lazytown,  incomes are low,  the locals don't like outsiders of any sort,  there was a BBC TV prog that tried to persuade the locals that a 15 minute walk to school was better than a 30 mins car dive from the same point to point..and failed!!  They'd rather it in their cars in a traffic jam than walk!!

 

The fact is that the Poles, Lithuanians etc who have come here have got proper jobs, pay tax and council tax, and spend their money in the shops here. It is a fact though that the govt has not increased the support grant to match the population rise so schools are under pressure.

 

The fact that voting UKIP will not change anything in Lincs County Council seems to have slipped by the locals.


Edited by JohnM, 03 May 2013 - 05:48 PM.


#167 Northern Sol

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:47 PM

WELL DONE UKIP a vote for common sense and the working man:))))

I am far from being a socialist but I have to draw the line at this. What do UKIP promise "the working man"?



#168 gingerjon

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:57 PM

I am far from being a socialist but I have to draw the line at this. What do UKIP promise "the working man"?

A pint for those in the south. And, in the north, the grand total of 2 councillors.

The results, away from the media glare:

By %: Labour 29; Conservative 25; Ukip 23; Lib Dem 14
By seats: Conservative 1136; Labour 538; Lib Dem 353; Independents 165; Ukip 147
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#169 Severus

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:59 PM

WELL DONE UKIP a vote for common sense and the working man:))))
Let the French be french
Krauts be krauts
And stuff the champagne socialists of Brussels
We will still buy french wine and take our holidays there, and buy nazi cars so don,t worry be happy:))))
CM


Krauts, Nazis. You're stuck in the wrong century mate.
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#170 JohnM

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 06:34 PM

  Agreed...but that won't persuade UKIP voters of the error of their ways.  Telling UKIP voters that they are just plain wrong about immigration, the EU, gay marriage and the political establishment  will not win them over. More likely it will just harden their attitudes.

 

One thing I missed off my previous post. I think round here at least, the govts inability to  deport Abu  Qaatada is also an issue, and indeed There is considerable intolerance of the freedom that seems to be given to extreme Islam. It doesn't matter if it is true or not. Its the perception that counts.



#171 Billypop

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 06:46 PM

  Agreed...but that won't persuade UKIP voters of the error of their ways.  Telling UKIP voters that they are just plain wrong about immigration, the EU, gay marriage and the political establishment  will not win them over. More likely it will just harden their attitudes.

 

One thing I missed off my previous post. I think round here at least, the govts inability to  deport Abu  Qaatada is also an issue, and indeed There is considerable intolerance of the freedom that seems to be given to extreme Islam. It doesn't matter if it is true or not. Its the perception that counts.

How is that the fault of the EU which is the target of the Kippers?

 

That is the fault of Winston Churchill's ECHR. nothing to do with the EU.

 

That is beyond the average Sun reader, however.I hope you understand that. 

  Agreed...but that won't persuade UKIP voters of the error of their ways.  Telling UKIP voters that they are just plain wrong about immigration, the EU, gay marriage and the political establishment  will not win them over. More likely it will just harden their attitudes.

 

One thing I missed off my previous post. I think round here at least, the govts inability to  deport Abu  Qaatada is also an issue, and indeed There is considerable intolerance of the freedom that seems to be given to extreme Islam. It doesn't matter if it is true or not. Its the perception that counts.



#172 gingerjon

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 06:49 PM

Telling UKIP voters that they are just plain wrong about immigration, the EU, gay marriage and the political establishment  will not win them over. More likely it will just harden their attitudes.

They don't need to be won over. They just came third in the shires.
Cheer up, RL is actually rather good
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#173 JohnM

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 07:25 PM

How is that the fault of the EU which is the target of the Kippers?

 

That is the fault of Winston Churchill's ECHR. nothing to do with the EU.

 

That is beyond the average Sun reader, however.I hope you understand that. 

 

You might be missing my point, though.  Clearly we are bound by agreements, treaties, etc.  and the rule of law...and we are ALL law abiding in everything we do, are we not?

 

The whole thing is about perceptions, not reality, and that is the problem  Trying to explain the ECRH and the HRA etc to many UKIP voters  and others  will be pointless if those voters have decided in their own minds that we should deport Aba Qatada  regardless. 

 

Perception is also the issue in Ginge's argument, too. The percentages are irrelevant, the share is irrelevant. If you live in Boston in Lincolnshire you will be under the impression that UKIP is the dominant party. The media coverage that Farrage has had will  reinforce that opinion. Clearly Ginge is right with his percentages and no doubt that at election time  snafu will apply.

 

However. the daily circulation of the Sun and the Mail combined is around 5  or 6 million and the readership is almost double that.  It may not suit everyone, but the value of a Sun readers vote or a Mail readers vote is exactly the same as your vote, no matter how intellectually superior you regard yourself.

 

Thus the challenge for the established political elite of the Westminster village is to get their point across effectively. They won't do that just by calling the voters names or merely telling them they are plain wrong.



#174 gingerjon

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 08:03 PM

Thus the challenge for the established political elite of the Westminster village is to get their point across effectively. They won't do that just by calling the voters names or merely telling them they are plain wrong.

Two little facts doing the rounds: Ukip didn't take a single seat from Labour & Labour now has control of more councils than at any point since 2002.

Oh, and Labour already have a consistent polling % that would give them a majority in the next general election.

I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.
Cheer up, RL is actually rather good
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#175 Methven Hornet

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 08:48 PM

Well, it's start. Scottish ethnicity? In 2013?

 

Coherence? Meaning? In 2013?

Madness I tell you!


"There are now more pandas in Scotland than Tory MPs."

#176 JohnM

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 09:03 PM

Two little facts doing the rounds: Ukip didn't take a single seat from Labour & Labour now has control of more councils than at any point since 2002.

Oh, and Labour already have a consistent polling % that would give them a majority in the next general election.

I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.

 

Fine,  But sine when have facts had any bearing on politics. I'm sure more or less everyone  but Nigel agrees that come the general election UKIP will be wiped out. But for the moment they have the headlines..amd next year Its the European Parliament election isn't it?



#177 Steve May

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 03:04 AM

A vote for the party that dares talk about some of the awkward subjects the others skirt around

But that's ######.


They actually spend their time talking about how other parties won't let them talk about awkward subjects.

They are not a serious bunch of people. They are fools. They *like* being annoyed so they construct reasons to get annoyed.

It's just like that old nonsense about local councils replacing Christmas with "Winterval". It never happened, but a certain class of idiot really wants it to have happened so they can indulge their own strange desire for indignation.

That's me.  I'm done.


#178 Steve May

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 03:06 AM

I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.

The pundits that make up the public face of the "Westminster elite" are generally wrong about everything. It's because they talk into an echo chamber.

Which reminds me, must get round to reading "The Signal and the Noise".

That's me.  I'm done.


#179 gingerjon

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 07:52 AM

The pundits that make up the public face of the "Westminster elite" are generally wrong about everything. It's because they talk into an echo chamber.

That much is true.

Again, I think the more telling story is how few people actually voted and how that is masked again by talking party percentages. Round here there was a drop in turnout from 44% to 30%. Where I can find figures they seem to be showing a similar fall. To me that says far more about the relevance of each one of the parties, even those led by soaks from Dulwich College, than anything else.
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#180 JohnM

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 09:02 AM

Radio Five Live this morning. A right wing former Tory battle axe put he finger on it when she said that the UKIP "success" - (however many, however few, however right, however wrong, whetever teh percentages, whatever teh number of seats , whatever) was basically about Farage connecting with voters about

 

1. Smoking  (quite a few comments from people saying at least Farage isn't afraid to smoke)

2. Foreign aid

3. Immigration

4. EU

5. Duncan Smith and the Lib Dems comments about bus passes and winter fuel allowance

5. The Westminster elite of professional 

 

The performances of both Theresa may and Angela Eagle on TV this morning will have done nothing to convince UKIP voters that the Tories or Labour have grasped the iissues

 

Of course, if Camer-band hold their line, the UKIP threat may well recede, just as it might if their only resource Farage goes down with a bout of flu...lust like the SNP foundered when Salmond quit some years ago,. UKIP is not so much a single issue party as a single person party.

 

BUT: these were only County Council elections. Ar ethere any unitary authority and other elections next May? When are the Euro elections?  So as well as fading away there are also opportunities for UKIP to get more representation...which is OK my me if it prompts the other parties to up their game, but not if it prompts a knee jerk move to the right.






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