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Lies, damned lies and statistics


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25 replies to this topic

#1 Bearman

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 12:00 AM

Sky Sports ( and Phil Clarke) are big on showing how the statistics don't lie in games.
In one of yesterday's games the statistics were
Breaks
Team A 9 Team B 6
Offloads
Team A 9 Team B 17
Penalties
Team A 6 Team B 6
Errors
Team A 15 Team B 10
Completion Rate (%)
Team A 73 Team B 79
On this basis team A had the most breaks,
Team B had the most offloads, the fewest errors and the better completion rate
Penalties were even.
So on those statistics team B must have been better than team A
Final Score was................



Team A 46 Team B 6
( Wigan v Salford)

Who said statistics don't lie?

Edited by bearman, 06 May 2013 - 12:02 AM.

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#2 Wellsy4HullFC

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 01:58 AM

Need far more than the 5 sets if stats they show on Sky to get a good picture... like metres gained and tackle success rate!
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#3 JohnM

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:41 AM

and points scored. I think that may be an important one, too.



#4 gogledd

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 03:42 PM

Phil Clarke talks through his a*se



#5 JohnM

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 04:47 PM

So why not put yourself up for the post?



#6 slowdive

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 05:42 PM

I like Phil Clarke and I admire the fact he's trying to do different stuff, but I'm not really very keen on his stats at the moment and it doesn't add anything for me when I'm watching.
"At times to be silent is to lie. You will win because you have enough brute force. But you will not convince. For to convince you need to persuade. And in order to persuade you would need what you lack: Reason and Right."

#7 gogledd

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:31 PM

So why not put yourself up for the post?

 

Whats the wages like? I can talk boll*cks but at least I understand statistics and probability.



#8 Native New Yorker

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:39 PM

Sky Sports ( and Phil Clarke) are big on showing how the statistics don't lie in games.
In one of yesterday's games the statistics were
Breaks
Team A 9 Team B 6
Offloads
Team A 9 Team B 17
Penalties
Team A 6 Team B 6
Errors
Team A 15 Team B 10
Completion Rate (%)
Team A 73 Team B 79
On this basis team A had the most breaks,
Team B had the most offloads, the fewest errors and the better completion rate
Penalties were even.
So on those statistics team B must have been better than team A
Final Score was................



Team A 46 Team B 6
( Wigan v Salford)

Who said statistics don't lie?

I was at the game on Friday night and it is true Salford did make a lot of offloads BUT most of the time they were along way from the tryline at were at best an annoyance to Wigan rather than a threat.

I too deal with statistics and my favorite saying is what do you want the answer to be as statistics can always be slanted to a particular question.

Any statistic taken in isolation can be misleading.
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#9 slowdive

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:53 PM

The score is the only statistic that counts!
"At times to be silent is to lie. You will win because you have enough brute force. But you will not convince. For to convince you need to persuade. And in order to persuade you would need what you lack: Reason and Right."

#10 JohnM

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:45 PM


Whats the wages like? I can talk boll*cks but at least I understand statistics and probability.


You'll understand then that without Clarke's knowledge, training, experience and playing record, your chances are zero.

#11 hindle xiii

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 07:37 AM

and points scored. I think that may be an important one, too.

The score is the only statistic that counts!

And even that, on occasion, is not a fair reflection of the game either...!


On Odsal Top baht 'at.


#12 JohnM

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:23 PM

It is when we win!

#13 TheChief

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 04:20 PM

The important stats not included are % possession, metres made, number of carries and no of tackles/missed tackles. I bet Wigans stats for each if those is higher except for tackles.
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#14 Maximus Decimus

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 04:39 PM

I was at the game on Friday night and it is true Salford did make a lot of offloads BUT most of the time they were along way from the tryline at were at best an annoyance to Wigan rather than a threat.

I too deal with statistics and my favorite saying is what do you want the answer to be as statistics can always be slanted to a particular question.

Any statistic taken in isolation can be misleading.

 

Including individual games. Statistics are not invalidated when one example doesn't follow the pattern.

 

A clear majority of games are won by clubs that win on the statistics too. If you're making better yards than the opposition, completing more sets and playing at the right end of the field then you are giving yourself a much better chance of winning the game. There's no conspiracy in it.



#15 statties

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 05:22 PM

speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

 

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

 

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D



#16 Dave T

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 05:27 PM

speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D

its pretty much still there but repackaged.

#17 hindle xiii

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 06:25 AM

... and at times has been there or there abouts.


On Odsal Top baht 'at.


#18 Southstander13

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:11 AM

speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

 

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

 

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D

 

Its still there, they just dont make a song and dance about it now. Its used now in the way it should have been last year, as a side note to show how each team are doing, not some kind of mystic meg!



#19 statties

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:13 AM

I loved the audacity of them to deem the margin metre a success when it merely adjusted it's score depending on the flow and scores in the game.

 

Hell I can be a pretty good score predictor 5 minutes from full time after I have changed my opinion 6 times. In fact it was so terrible it was laughable :lol:  



#20 statties

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:14 AM

Its still there, they just dont make a song and dance about it now. Its used now in the way it should have been last year, as a side note to show how each team are doing, not some kind of mystic meg!

 ok, I have never noticed it this year. as long as it isnt predicting FT scores any more then perhaps it does have merit