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Lies, damned lies and statistics


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#21 Dave T

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:43 AM

 ok, I have never noticed it this year. as long as it isnt predicting FT scores any more then perhaps it does have merit

It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.



#22 Southstander13

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:30 AM

It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.

 

I know in the Bradford Leeds game on Friday, Bradford were (i think) 16 points behind and all the stats etc suggested that they should have been about 10 points behind. Phil Clarke mentioned it but no big deal was made.

 

If used as a talking point it can be a good addition, showing that a team may not have been taking advantage of a shift in possession or momentum etc, or that a teams defence is doing very well when the stats suggest that the opposition should be closer to them than the scoreline suggests etc.



#23 Phil Rouge

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 11:56 AM

Feel I've got to stand up for statistics here. I find Phil Clarke's stats stuff fascinating and for me it adds a new dimension providing a deeper understanding of what is going on in the game.

 

Statistics never lie, they are just numbers. As stated in other posts it is the inferences that you draw from them that can be incorrect.

 

Statistics underpin many scientific and engineering disciplines - for example, statistical techniques were used in the detection of the Higg's particle at Cern.

 

In the Wigan Salford game the statistics quoted did not include tackle counts, tackles missed and metres gained, which I think would probably have painted a different picture. The statistics quoted were too selective to provide a good overall picture of the game.

 

And the other thing as stated above the quoted game is just one example. Statistics is based on the mathematics of probability and as such you always have a chance of metaphorically rolling double six. I am sure there are occasions when all the statistics might point to one team winning and they do lose.



#24 hindle xiii

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 12:11 PM

Feel I've got to stand up for statistics here. I find Phil Clarke's stats stuff fascinating and for me it adds a new dimension providing a deeper understanding of what is going on in the game.

 

Statistics never lie, they are just numbers. As stated in other posts it is the inferences that you draw from them that can be incorrect.

 

Statistics underpin many scientific and engineering disciplines - for example, statistical techniques were used in the detection of the Higg's particle at Cern.

 

In the Wigan Salford game the statistics quoted did not include tackle counts, tackles missed and metres gained, which I think would probably have painted a different picture. The statistics quoted were too selective to provide a good overall picture of the game.

 

And the other thing as stated above the quoted game is just one example. Statistics is based on the mathematics of probability and as such you always have a chance of metaphorically rolling double six. I am sure there are occasions when all the statistics might point to one team winning and they do lose.

:D You haven't even bothered with a pseudonym Clarkey! ;)


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#25 Blind side johnny

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 03:15 PM

It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.

 

 

 

And that's the issue - KPI (key performance indicators) are management speak and a wonderful tool for those people who don't really understand what's going on. PC is a good bloke but does have an over-inflated impression of his own intellect and insight, hence his willingness to use KPIs.


Believe what you see, don't see what you believe.


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#26 Dave T

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 06:23 PM

And that's the issue - KPI (key performance indicators) are management speak and a wonderful tool for those people who don't really understand what's going on. PC is a good bloke but does have an over-inflated impression of his own intellect and insight, hence his willingness to use KPIs.

That's a very arrogant post and tbh, quite hypocritical.






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