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Cameron out of touch


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#21 ckn

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 12:34 PM

Rather than Cameron just being out of touch, are all politicians and even party members out of touch with the wider public opinion?

There has always been some degree of disconnect but the last two decades have seen it become excessively large.  The days of Labour MPs coming in from trades and trades union and Tories coming in from management/ownership have gone to a large extent, there's a career path of a politics centred degree followed by becoming an aide and hoping you impress the central party of similarly minded people.  It's an exception when you get someone appointed from outside this path these days.

 

After the last election, someone posted stats showing that there are more MPs than ever who have no local ties to their constituency with a large number having no county ties, never mind constituency ties.


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#22 ckn

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 12:44 PM

I think there's another thing that Cameron, the senior Tories, Tory MPs and local swivel-eyed loons fail to recognise:  They did not win the last general election, they're only in power because they convinced the Lib Dems to join in with a coalition government.  The only conclusive outcome from the last election was that Labour lost it but no other party was convincing enough to persuade the public to vote for them to take the baton of power from the rotting corpse of the Brown government.


If they'd played nicely until the next election then they may have convinced enough neutrals that they could be trusted with sole power again but instead the toddlers have seized control of the car and are wildly driving to a massive car crash.


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway


#23 Northern Sol

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:29 PM

@ckn

 

I think you are reading too much into the results. The Tories got 36.1% of the vote, this contrasts with Labour who got 35.2% of the vote in 2005.

 

The fact that Labour had an overall majority and the Tories didn't says a lot about the electoral system but very little about the parties' appeal to swing voters. 



#24 ckn

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:30 PM

@ckn

 

I think you are reading too much into the results. The Tories got 36.1% of the vote, this contrasts with Labour who got 35.2% of the vote in 2005.

 

The fact that Labour had an overall majority and the Tories didn't says a lot about the electoral system but very little about the parties' appeal to swing voters. 

A lot of that is recognised in my comments about a rotting corpse Labour government...


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway


#25 Ramite

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 01:56 PM

There has always been some degree of disconnect but the last two decades have seen it become excessively large. The days of Labour MPs coming in from trades and trades union and Tories coming in from management/ownership have gone to a large extent, there's a career path of a politics centred degree followed by becoming an aide and hoping you impress the central party of similarly minded people. It's an exception when you get someone appointed from outside this path these days.

After the last election, someone posted stats showing that there are more MPs than ever who have no local ties to their constituency with a large number having no county ties, never mind constituency ties.

Good points I'd like to see politicians that come from outside the political bubble. Few at the top have ever had a job outside of this though there are a few lawyers. It may make a dent in the general apathy toward politics in general.
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#26 Northern Sol

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 03:29 PM

A lot of that is recognised in my comments about a rotting corpse Labour government...

I think with all three major parties having very similar policies and a strong focus on media presentation from all parties, a 40%+ share of the vote is exceptional rather than the norm. The next government, Labour or Tory, probably won't do much better than the current 36.1%. 



#27 ckn

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 03:49 PM

I think with all three major parties having very similar policies and a strong focus on media presentation from all parties, a 40%+ share of the vote is exceptional rather than the norm. The next government, Labour or Tory, probably won't do much better than the current 36.1%. 

A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.


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#28 Northern Sol

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 03:51 PM

A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.

If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.



#29 John Drake

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 04:30 PM

If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.

 

How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?


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#30 Northern Sol

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 04:45 PM

How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?

Hence the quotations.

 

However everybody understands the concept of "wasted votes" so it's much quicker to type than go through a detailed explanation.



#31 Methven Hornet

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 10:13 PM



Northern Sol, on 20 May 2013 - 16:50, said:
If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.


How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?


Phew! I'm struggling to think of a more misinformed post than the one you've responded to, but, hey-ho. There are very few 'wasted' votes in Scottish parliamentary elections, or, to put it more accurately, very few wasted opinions.

Firstly, we do not use the Alternate(Alternative?) Vote system, not in Holyrood nor in council elections.

In Holyrood there are two parts to the election. 73 of the seats are elected on a single-member constituency basis, using first-past-the-post - exactly the same as Westminster.

The vote share in this part was SNP 45.4%, Lab 31.7%, Con 13.9%, Lib Dem 7.9% (as this is part is cross-thread - UKIP 0.1% :) )

This resulted in the following seats: SNP 53, Lab 15, Con 3, Lib Dem 2 - a massive majority, and you can see why we didn't settle for just fptp!

The second part of the electoral system is the regional list system. The country is divided into regions and each party puts up a list of candidates in preference order. This enables the voter to use their constituency vote tactically, or to vote for an individual, but vote for the party of their choice in the regional. The count uses a D'Hondt method to allocate seats, and each allocation attempts to bring the proportion of seats into line with the vote for each party

The vote share in this part was SNP 44.0%, Lab 26.3%, Con 12.4%, Lib Dem 5.2%, Greens 4.4%, Independent 1.1% (UKIP 0.9)

Resulting in seats allocated SNP 16, Lab 22, Con 12, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Ind 1.

Total seats SNP 69, Lab 37, Con 15, Lib dem 5, Green 2, Ind 1.

So, in both sections, SNP got around about 44-45% of the vote - incredible in an established 4 party, almost 5 party environment - and got the majority that the system was designed to avoid.

Edited by Methven Hornet, 20 May 2013 - 10:14 PM.

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#32 Methven Hornet

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Posted 20 May 2013 - 10:23 PM

A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.

And, as the thread is about being 'in touch', I've just checked the profiles of the 8 member Scottish cabinet. All but one of them had earlier careers outside of politics. The one exception is Alex Neil. He was originally in the Labour Party, and worked for them as a researcher.

They all went to ordinary state comprehensive schools, followed by Scottish Universities.
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#33 Northern Sol

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:33 AM

Phew! I'm struggling to think of a more misinformed post than the one you've responded to, but, hey-ho. There are very few 'wasted' votes in Scottish parliamentary elections, or, to put it more accurately, very few wasted opinions.

I'm aware of that, that's why I put quotations around the words wasted and vote. I also said that most of the SNP's seats came from the top-up. You'd think that these two facts would give you a general clue that I know how the AV system works in Scotland. 



#34 Wolford6

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:12 AM

Boris is in bother again.

 

http://www.dailymail...irth-quiet.html


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#35 Trojan

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:23 AM

To be fair to loonies the argument that "There is no point beating the Tories if you have to become the Tories in order to do so" is a good one.

 

Very true.  But there's a world of difference between that view and wanting mass nationalisation of everything without compensation - an example of some of the policies put forward by the Militant Tendency in the Labour party branch of which I was a member.  I believe Labour should provide a radical alternative to the Tories. That's why I support Labour's stand against the mass welfare cuts, the the scapegoating of those on welfare as "skivers"  Sooner or later it will be proved that "scapegoating" is all it is. Let's not forget that it was the Tories who put "clause 28" into law in order to scapegoat a minority.


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#36 gingerjon

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:25 AM

I'm aware of that, that's why I put quotations around the words wasted and vote. I also said that most of the SNP's seats came from the top-up. You'd think that these two facts would give you a general clue that I know how the AV system works in Scotland. 

 

Reading Methven's post it seems that the SNP got 53 seats from FPTP and 16 via top up?


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#37 JohnM

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 08:33 AM

I think there's another thing that Cameron, the senior Tories, Tory MPs and local swivel-eyed loons fail to recognise:  They did not win the last general election, they're only in power because they convinced the Lib Dems to join in with a coalition government.  The only conclusive outcome from the last election was that Labour lost it but no other party was convincing enough to persuade the public to vote for them to take the baton of power from the rotting corpse of the Brown government.


If they'd played nicely until the next election then they may have convinced enough neutrals that they could be trusted with sole power again but instead the toddlers have seized control of the car and are wildly driving to a massive car crash.

 Quite so. In my opinion, there are those MPs on the right, and in the Tory press who  have never forgiven Cameron from forging an alliance with the Lib Dems and are blindly doing everything that can to sabotage that alliance at every opportunity, conveniently forgetting that they are actually sabotaging the Govt...something that Labour should be doing but somehow can't.  They seem to forget that the alternative would have been a Lib-Lab coalition and personally I will never forgive the traitors if they do sabotage the Coalition. 

 

 I really think that Cameron now has an idea opportunity to sink UKIP by expelling the loonies Like Dorries and co, thus cleaning up the party and consigning UKIP to electoral oblivion at the next General Election. 



#38 JohnM

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 08:49 AM

And, as the thread is about being 'in touch', I've just checked the profiles of the 8 member Scottish cabinet. All but one of them had earlier careers outside of politics. The one exception is Alex Neil. He was originally in the Labour Party, and worked for them as a researcher.

They all went to ordinary state comprehensive schools, followed by Scottish Universities.

 

Does working as aggressive take-no-prisoners cutting-edge economist at  the RBS  count as a career outside politics?  :D

 

Or maybe  doing house conveyancing In Drumchapel? 



#39 John Drake

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 09:59 AM

 Quite so. In my opinion, there are those MPs on the right, and in the Tory press who  have never forgiven Cameron from forging an alliance with the Lib Dems and are blindly doing everything that can to sabotage that alliance at every opportunity, conveniently forgetting that they are actually sabotaging the Govt...something that Labour should be doing but somehow can't.  They seem to forget that the alternative would have been a Lib-Lab coalition and personally I will never forgive the traitors if they do sabotage the Coalition. 

 

 I really think that Cameron now has an idea opportunity to sink UKIP by expelling the loonies Like Dorries and co, thus cleaning up the party and consigning UKIP to electoral oblivion at the next General Election. 

 

Do you believe Cameron has the bottle or the authority to do the latter? To genuinely attempt to modernise his party, instead of just talking about it? I don't. He is the one who stoked the flames over Europe by promising a referendum in the first place, to try and appease the Euroloons in his party. By doing that he has just made them stronger and whatever he concedes to them, they will never be satisfied. He has allowed Dorries back into the fold so she can repeatedly stab him in the front instead of expelling her from the party. He is the one who staked his Tory modernisation project on equal marriage and then didn't have the courage to speak in its favour during the debate in Parliament yesterday. Pathetic example of leadership. Kinnock was a giant in comparison.


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#40 Northern Sol

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 10:02 AM

Reading Methven's post it seems that the SNP got 53 seats from FPTP and 16 via top up?

Indeed I had remembered the results of the last election which led to a minority SNP government.






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