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No double dip


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#21 nadera78

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:12 PM

Ah, which of his actions in particular have kept us from not actually falling into recession?

 

This is the more likely explanation, but admittedly a lot less "waaah, the Tories eat children"

 

Do you post anywhere else on TRL or only on political threads on AOB?


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#22 T-Dub

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 01:27 PM

More precise reporting on economic news...



#23 Methven Hornet

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 03:51 PM

Yes it is because it promotes the headline impression of the UK is an economy in recession when it actually, by whaever margin, hasnt been. Any overseas invester looking at UK would take his investment elsewhere given the negative climate and image promoted by Labour and media doom mongers

Yes there are massive forces at work throughout the global economy and within our own but a rational sense of perspective would have been useful over the last couple of years... but that doesnt sell papers or attract whoops of support on Question Time

 

Except that it actually was in recession, on the admission of the chief economist of the ONS. The GDP at the end of Q1 2012 was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q4 2011, which, in turn was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q3 2011. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession.


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#24 T-Dub

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 04:28 PM

Except that it actually was in recession, on the admission of the chief economist of the ONS. The GDP at the end of Q1 2012 was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q4 2011, which, in turn was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q3 2011. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession.


You're quite right, to be more precise I should have said that 'the headline impression of the UK is an economy in a double dip recession when it actually, by whaever margin, hasnt been'

My overriding point however has been that a double dip surely isnt as damaging as one long one, it just sounds more dramatic, which itself has contributed to the disappointingly slow recovery

#25 Trojan

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 04:10 PM

When it was thought that there was a double dip recession, it was said to beonly a "technical recession" now the figures have been proved to be slightly wrong everything in the garden is lovely.  But what about the figures for the last quarter?  Aren't they within the same error range?  Whatever the figures say, take it from someone who's out there trying to sell - this country is in a recession.  As for the debt, the government (Mr Osborne that is) has actually increased it since taking office.  The last government frittered away our money on such frivolities as teachers, doctors and nurses, on building new schools and hospitals.  They were caught with their trousers down when the recession hit. No one in government, in the civil service, in the Bank of England, or for that matter in the Tory party saw it coming.  In 2007, Cameron and Osborne were calling for less regulation of the banks and promising to match Labour's spending plans.  The mess has been made considerably worse by Osborne's policies.  This government did inherit a large deficit, but they also inherited 2% growth and a plan to deal with the deficit sensibly.  Osborne decided to go for broke and cut, using the excuse that it was all Labour's fault. Let's not forget that by now the policy would have worked and we'd be in the sunlit uplands.  The policy didn't work and what's George's answer?  More of the same. ( with barbecue relish please!)


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#26 archibald

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 06:02 PM

When it was thought that there was a double dip recession, it was said to beonly a "technical recession" now the figures have been proved to be slightly wrong everything in the garden is lovely.  But what about the figures for the last quarter?  Aren't they within the same error range?  Whatever the figures say, take it from someone who's out there trying to sell - this country is in a recession.  As for the debt, the government (Mr Osborne that is) has actually increased it since taking office.  The last government frittered away our money on such frivolities as teachers, doctors and nurses, on building new schools and hospitals.  They were caught with their trousers down when the recession hit. No one in government, in the civil service, in the Bank of England, or for that matter in the Tory party saw it coming.  In 2007, Cameron and Osborne were calling for less regulation of the banks and promising to match Labour's spending plans.  The mess has been made considerably worse by Osborne's policies.  This government did inherit a large deficit, but they also inherited 2% growth and a plan to deal with the deficit sensibly.  Osborne decided to go for broke and cut, using the excuse that it was all Labour's fault. Let's not forget that by now the policy would have worked and we'd be in the sunlit uplands.  The policy didn't work and what's George's answer?  More of the same. ( with barbecue relish please!)

"Deal with the deficit sensibly" Since they had the same plan as the Tories, that must make their plan sensible.

Just for future reference, when in the economic cycle did it switch from being "all down to Labour" to being "all down to the Tories"? From the date of the election? 6 months after? 1 year?


Edited by archibald, 05 July 2013 - 07:02 AM.


#27 Trojan

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 07:32 PM

"Deal with the deficit sensibly" Since they had the same plan as the Tories, that must make they're plan sensible.

Just for future reference, when in the economic cycle did it switch from being "all down to Labour" to being "all down to the Tories"? From the date of the election? 6 months after? 1 year?

 

But Darling's budget wasn't the same as Osborne's, if it had've been there'd have been no reason for George to get up on his hind legs at all once he was chancellor.  These measures are nothing to do with the deficit  Our austerity is more swinging than Portugal's Spain's or Greece's and they're in a much worse mess than we are. It's all about shrinking the state and carrying on reversing the 1945 settlement - back to the thirties lads. Carry on where Maggie left off in other words.


"This is a very wealthy country, money is no object" D. Cameron February 2014


#28 tonyXIII

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 07:53 PM

But Darling's budget wasn't the same as Osborne's, if it had've been there'd have been no reason for George to get up on his hind legs at all once he was chancellor.  These measures are nothing to do with the deficit  Our austerity is more swinging than Portugal's Spain's or Greece's and they're in a much worse mess than we are. It's all about shrinking the state and carrying on reversing the 1945 settlement - back to the thirties lads. Carry on where Maggie left off in other words.

 

Firstly, I assume you meant "swingeing" as in "forceful" and not "swinging" as in "sixties". If that is so, I have two things to say:

 

1) When were you last there?

 

2) You have got to be joking!


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#29 Trojan

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 07:59 PM

Firstly, I assume you meant "swingeing" as in "forceful" and not "swinging" as in "sixties". If that is so, I have two things to say:

 

1) When were you last there?

 

2) You have got to be joking!

Yes a typo.  I was reading Will Hutton in the Guardian last week, a man I have a great respect for, that is what he says, the cuts here are much deeper than in the places I've named.  And less necessary. 


"This is a very wealthy country, money is no object" D. Cameron February 2014


#30 archibald

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 08:09 PM

But Darling's budget wasn't the same as Osborne's, if it had've been there'd have been no reason for George to get up on his hind legs at all once he was chancellor.  These measures are nothing to do with the deficit  Our austerity is more swinging than Portugal's Spain's or Greece's and they're in a much worse mess than we are. It's all about shrinking the state and carrying on reversing the 1945 settlement - back to the thirties lads. Carry on where Maggie left off in other words.

Maggie wasn't around in the 30's.



#31 JohnM

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 08:12 PM

Will Hutton?   :no:

As a result of Hutton's ownership the Work Foundation ceased to be financially viable and was sold to Lancaster University.

 

Guardian?  :no: :no:

 

Part of the tax avoiding GNM?

 

two winners there!!



#32 tonyXIII

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Posted 29 June 2013 - 08:15 PM

Yes a typo.  I was reading Will Hutton in the Guardian last week, a man I have a great respect for, that is what he says, the cuts here are much deeper than in the places I've named.  And less necessary. 

 

I'll take the "less necessary", but can't take the other bit. Some examples. Dole in Greece has been slashed. Two years ago, it was 540 euros a month, last year, it was 360 euros a month. This year, I don't know because I got out while I could. Earlier this year, I saw one of my old bosses and he admitted that he was seriously worried about his, and his family's future, as parents can no longer afford to send their children to language schools. He said that if he could leave he'd go - family commitments make it difficult for him, plus his qualifications probably wouldn't be accepted here. My other boss's husband is on a pension and that's been almost halved over the last couple of years. Taxes have increased, too. A new annual property tax (318euros pa. on my house) was introduced two years ago. They also hit us with the so-called "Solidarity Tax" ( a one-off grab of about 250 euros, but I can't remember the figures exactly). They just closed down ERT completely (ERT is the Greek equivalent of the BBC) and laid off all the staff. (They are going to reopen it soon, and it was bloated beyond belief, but it's still a lot of families without a job) Austerity? In comparison, we've never had it so good!


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#33 archibald

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 07:04 AM

 
China to grow 7.6% in second half
China's economy is expected to expand 7.6% in the second half of 2013, but risks of bad local government loans, slowing growth of central government revenue, diminished export competitiveness and industrial capacity are growing

 

.
 
Budget deficit in Italy increases at the beginning of the year
The Italian budget deficit increased at the beginning of the year due to a rise in spending. The deficit now stands at 7.3% of economic output, compared to 6.6% a year earlier.

 

 


#34 Wolford6

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 08:05 AM

No double dip; MP's immediately put in for a pay rise.


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#35 T-Dub

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 10:19 AM

No double dip; MP's immediately put in for a pay rise.

No

It was assessed for them by an independent body and announced without their sanction. Any timing would be terrible and any award terrible as well

Whether they will accept it is still open

Your psts are usually fascinating and thought provoking, for Gods sake dont start making selective generalisations as bad as Trojan's 'nothing to do with us' post

#36 getdownmonkeyman

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 12:31 PM

No

It was assessed for them by an independent body and announced without their sanction. Any timing would be terrible and any award terrible as well

Whether they will accept it is still open

Your psts are usually fascinating and thought provoking, for Gods sake dont start making selective generalisations as bad as Trojan's 'nothing to do with us' post

 

Not withstanding the fact that 69% of MPs think they are underpaid.



#37 Trojan

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 08:02 PM

No double dip; MP's immediately put in for a pay rise.

 

The MP's haven't put in for a pay rise, they've been recommended one.


"This is a very wealthy country, money is no object" D. Cameron February 2014


#38 Trojan

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 08:03 PM

Will Hutton?   :no:

As a result of Hutton's ownership the Work Foundation ceased to be financially viable and was sold to Lancaster University.

 

Guardian?  :no: :no:

 

Part of the tax avoiding GNM?

 

two winners there!!

 

Not the tax avoiding,  Telegraph owning Barclay brothers then?


"This is a very wealthy country, money is no object" D. Cameron February 2014


#39 archibald

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 07:52 PM

Not only was there no double dip, but according to the ONS, income inequality is now at it's lowest since 1986.

The largest fall in incomes over this period has been for the richest fifth of households, whose disposable income has fallen by £4,200 (or 6.8%) in real terms. This has been largely driven by a fall in average income from employment (including self-employment). The average income of the middle fifth of households fell by £760 (or 3.1%) over this same period.

By contrast, the average income of the poorest fifth has risen by £700 (or 6.9%) since 2007/08. This is mainly due to an increase in the average income from employment for this group, along with an increase in the average amount received in certain cash benefits such as tax credits and housing benefit.

 



#40 Phil

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 08:01 PM

Remember the UB40 song 'Ghost Town'? 

 

 

 

Errrr that was The Specials Tim. Didn't they teach you about verifying your sources at school?  :D


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