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Iraq


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118 replies to this topic

#1 John Drake

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 01:21 PM

Where will it end...

 

http://www.independe...it-9530899.html


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#2 Martyn Sadler

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 01:52 PM

Where will it end...

 

http://www.independe...it-9530899.html

I notice that the Isis leader is saying his forces will march on Karbala.

 

If so, that will be an incredible flashpoint, since that city is the third holiest city for the Shias, after Mecca and Medina.

 

It houses the shrine and grave of Hussein ibn Ali, one of the earliest Shia imams, who was martyred there in 680. Thousands of Shia make pilgrimages there every year to mark his martyrdom, and if Isis gets hold of the city it would almost certainly seek to destroy the shrine and the ancient mosque, which they hold in contempt.

 

If that looked likely to happen I couldn't see the Iranians keeping out of the conflict.



#3 Bedford Roughyed

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 05:34 PM

All going well.

 

A country that had no Al-Qaeda is now being ripped apart by Al-Qaeda on steroids. 

 

Mission Accomplished.


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

#4 ckn

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 05:49 PM

All going well.

 

A country that had no Al-Qaeda is now being ripped apart by Al-Qaeda on steroids. 

 

Mission Accomplished.

Also, a largely secular country with over 1.5m Christians and a Christian Vice President, albeit with a frothy-mouthed nutjob president.  Given the choice between Saddam Hussain's Iraq and a fundamentalist Islamic Iraq, I think I know which one I'd choose in a heartbeat.  The latter would be the tipping point for Syria's civil war, it would also put severe pressure on Iran's largely successful restrictions on outright nutjob mullahs.  Israel will be polishing off its nukes as we speak, just in case.

 

The thing is though that if we (by that I mean the US, UK and other allies) fail to rescue the Iraqi government then we're just as liable for it falling as the Islamic nutjobs.  We created the mess, it's our responsibility to fix it.


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway


#5 Bedford Roughyed

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 06:35 PM

The Kurds will push into the north to 'stabilise' those areas.  The shia's will fight for those areas they feel are worth fighting for. 

 

Messy.


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

#6 back to the future

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 10:07 PM

not looking good

#7 Bostik Bailey

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 06:24 AM

The thing is though that if we (by that I mean the US, UK and other allies) fail to rescue the Iraqi government then we're just as liable for it falling as the Islamic nutjobs.  We created the mess, it's our responsibility to fix it.


Yes and we (the UK) created the messin Palestine, then just walked away. It was a mistake to go in in the first place, so do we throw good money after bad (to coin a phrase).

One thing is for sure this is holy mess,

#8 John Drake

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 09:42 AM

Also, a largely secular country with over 1.5m Christians and a Christian Vice President, albeit with a frothy-mouthed nutjob president.  Given the choice between Saddam Hussain's Iraq and a fundamentalist Islamic Iraq, I think I know which one I'd choose in a heartbeat.  The latter would be the tipping point for Syria's civil war, it would also put severe pressure on Iran's largely successful restrictions on outright nutjob mullahs.  Israel will be polishing off its nukes as we speak, just in case.

 

The thing is though that if we (by that I mean the US, UK and other allies) fail to rescue the Iraqi government then we're just as liable for it falling as the Islamic nutjobs.  We created the mess, it's our responsibility to fix it.

 

Isn't the real lesson of the last war in Iraq that it is actually unfixable, at least in terms of imposing a Western style democracy in a nation riven with the kind of religious divisions that exist there?

 

We've barely left after 10 years involvement and already it is falling apart. The democratically elected Iraqi government wanted us out, yet it has now capitulated to another ragbag bunch of extremists in large areas of the country mostly without even putting up a fight, even though they had the capability to do so.

 

What are we supposed to do now? Go back for another 10 years to a country that doesn't want us there, facing an enemy that just grows stronger the more you attack it?

 

Not in my name. Not again.


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#9 Gary Coyle

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 09:55 AM

Let em get on with it


Edited by Gary Coyle, 13 June 2014 - 09:56 AM.


#10 Bedford Roughyed

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 10:32 AM

It's a proxy war between Iran and Saudi. 

 

Problem is, it does/will effect us. 


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

#11 John Drake

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 10:52 AM

Problem is, it does/will effect us. 

 

It doesn't follow that the default response ought to be a military one.


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#12 Bedford Roughyed

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 11:02 AM

It doesn't follow that the default response ought to be a military one.

Very true, but at the same time, turning away and ignoring it isn't going to work either.

 

It does highlight the confusion in the region.  We support the valiant plucky rebels in their fight against the evil Assad in Syria, We support the government in their fight over the evil bloodthirsty rampaging rebels in Iraq....


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

#13 John Drake

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 11:04 AM

Very true, but at the same time, turning away and ignoring it isn't going to work either.

 

Why?

 

What ought we to be doing if not nothing and if not wading in militarily?


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#14 ckn

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 02:10 PM

A lesson every well brought up child learns is that you take accountability and responsibility for your actions.  We caused the problem in the first place in Iraq, much like we helped train many of the nutjobs in Afghanistan who then trained the next generation to fight us.  But for our interference in Iraq, this wouldn't be an issue.

 

If the nutjobs take over Iraq then that puts distinct pressure on all neighbouring nations.  It's quite a pivotal country really if you look at all the ones around it.  Iran is mellowing out, taking its time but getting there and is probably less of a threat to Israel and other nations than any time since the Shah was deposed.  Syria is a basket case that really could be doing without another front in the civil war.  Turkey is our friendly buffer zone between Europe and the nutjobs, they're already firefighting the nutjob uprisings on a daily basis.  Jordan is the friendliest of the nations to the West and is thoroughly resented for it by the nutjob fraternity.  Kuwait and Saudi Arabia may not be the model countries with seriously repressive regimes but they are very pro-western because they know that that's where the bulk of their income comes from.  Then there's the single jump through to Israel who may be small but have nuclear powered talons and I think they're not going to be that shy about using them if threatened the wrong way.

 

I was vehemently opposed to the Iraq war in 2003, I returned my Labour membership card and abandoned them for a decade because of it.  Our democratically elected Parliament chose to go in anyway therefore we need to get back in there and help them regardless of the cost or consequences.


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway


#15 Bob8

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 02:47 PM

It is not a choice of act or do not act, there list is three:

- Make it better (1% chance)

- Do nothing

- Make is worse (99% chance)

 

There is no greater waste of time than doing the wrong thing efficiently.


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#16 Northern Sol

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 02:59 PM

 Jordan is the friendliest of the nations to the West and is thoroughly resented for it by the nutjob fraternity.

Correction: The King of Jordan is a known Anglophile but public opinion in Jordan is as "nutjob" as anywhere else in the Middle East, half the population are of Palestinian origin for starters. The King might like to be pro-Western and make peace with Israel but public opinion in Jordan does not allow him to do so.



#17 ckn

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:00 PM

It is not a choice of act or do not act, there list is three:

- Make it better (1% chance)

- Do nothing

- Make is worse (99% chance)

 

There is no greater waste of time than doing the wrong thing efficiently.

Although I agree with you there, we really do have to do something.  In my opinion, the best thing we can do in the short term is provide air assistance, standing back and hitting the nutjobs with as much firepower as we can provide. 


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway


#18 Northern Sol

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:04 PM

The thing is though that if we (by that I mean the US, UK and other allies) fail to rescue the Iraqi government then we're just as liable for it falling as the Islamic nutjobs.  We created the mess, it's our responsibility to fix it.

The Iraqi government went out of its way to alienate the Sunni minority. The US made a huge effort to get the then PM to stand down in favour of Maliki who was thought to be moderate. He proved to be even worse.

 

Remember how Al Qaeda controlled the area before and then we had the awakening movement whereby local Sunni militias were created to stand up to Al Qaeda? Well that was the moment for reconciliation. Instead Maliki said "Thanks for dealing with Al Qaeda, now hand over your arms and no you can't be incorporated into the Iraqi army". This was followed by arrests, murders etc by the police / army of pretty much random Sunni men who may or may not have been terrorists. Few Shi'ia ever got this treatment.

 

That's not our fault.

 

The fact is that the population of the Sunni triangle considers the Al Qaeda offshoot to be preferable to the Iraqi government speaks volumes.



#19 Northern Sol

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:09 PM

If the nutjobs take over Iran then that puts distinct pressure on all neighbouring nations.  It's quite a pivotal country really if you look at all the ones around it.  

I presume you mean "Iraq".

 

There is no chance of the Iraqi government falling. There were less than 1,000 militia involved in taking over Mosul. ISIS have a total strength of about 6,000.

 

The Iraqi army is a pitiful shambles and the Mosul debacle might be the worst performance in war ever. They outnumbered the enemy 40:1 and had tanks and heavy weapons on their side. They fled rather than fight. The vast majority of them are Shi'ite Arabs or Kurds and thus were not defending their homes.

 

However Baghdad is full of Shi'ite militias who would put up very strong opposition.



#20 ckn

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 03:14 PM

I presume you mean "Iraq".

 

Yes.  Fixed.


Arguing with the forum trolls is like playing chess with a pigeon.  No matter how good you are, the bird will **** on the board and strut around like it won anyway





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