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Super eight or relegate?


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In a parallell forum predictions for next years SL all seem to go Wigan, Wire and Saints in no particular order then Les Catalans hampered from winning it by away form.

 

Down at the bottom Wakefield are repeatedly put there as a given.

 

Between that though Widnes are cited as another relegation threatened club despite an eight finish to the point of maybe joint bottom with Wakey.

 

HKR are down for a better finish by some as they have a "better team this year", but as with all clubs it's generally their fans who say their team will be better this year, and I'm not sure "all clubs have strengthened" Same at Cas where top players have gone their fans say the replacements will make them better, outside the bluster everyone has them dropping out of the eight some saying Powell's coaching has been "worked out"

 

Leeds are split between old heads been too good not to finish super eight, and old men will finally have their (hard) time, Nobody is sure about Hull, 4th. for some bottom for others.

 

Salford "strongest squad for years" is countered by a "collection of individuals", Fartown are spoken of in terms of it's all down to how Brough goes.

 

I personally dunno about all this but would be interested to hear how you think the teams will go apart from your own as nobody seemingly wants to admit that losing players and replacing them with others can sometimes end up with a worse squad especially in these days of player shortages.

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Pinning down actual finishing positions is difficult, but I think the league is split into three groups. Saints, Warrington and Wigan will be challenging for the title, Leeds, Huddersfield, and Catalans will be safely in the top 8, the bottom 6 are much of a muchness and could finish between 7th and bottom in any order.

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Pinning down actual finishing positions is difficult, but I think the league is split into three groups. Saints, Warrington and Wigan will be challenging for the title, Leeds, Huddersfield, and Catalans will be safely in the top 8, the bottom 6 are much of a muchness and could finish between 7th and bottom in any order.

I agree. In fact, with the season starting 10 weeks next Thursday, I'm having difficulty working up much interest in SL although maybe that'll change nearer the date. I think that the two lower divisions look much more interesting.

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I was wondering what will happen at Leeds if they start the season in the same sort of form they finished last year with. Will the cheque book finally be opened, will McDermott be given time to turn it around. Of course they could come out flying making these questions irrelevant.

 

I suspect the top of the table will be sorted out on the western side of the pennines with Wigan, Wire & Saints looking strongest. You'd expect Leeds & Huddersfield to make the eight. Catalans will be somewhere in the mix but after that is anyone's guess. I'm hoping for a good year from the Red Devils but I wouldn't be too surprised wherever they finish between 4th & 12th.

 

Hard to judge most of the teams I've not mentioned as there's so many new signings, who knows how they'll gel. Widnes are about the only squad which haven't brought in wholesale changes. Not sure if that means they'll start well due to the consistency in the squad or if they've just not strengthened enough and gone backwards.

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The middle 8 is what will catch the eye of the fans for mine.

 

It won't catch mine, I can't remember being less interested.

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I was wondering what will happen at Leeds if they start the season in the same sort of form they finished last year with. Will the cheque book finally be opened, will McDermott be given time to turn it around. Of course they could come out flying making these questions irrelevant.

 

I suspect the top of the table will be sorted out on the western side of the pennines with Wigan, Wire & Saints looking strongest. You'd expect Leeds & Huddersfield to make the eight. Catalans will be somewhere in the mix but after that is anyone's guess. I'm hoping for a good year from the Red Devils but I wouldn't be too surprised wherever they finish between 4th & 12th.

 

Hard to judge most of the teams I've not mentioned as there's so many new signings, who knows how they'll gel. Widnes are about the only squad which haven't brought in wholesale changes. Not sure if that means they'll start well due to the consistency in the squad or if they've just not strengthened enough and gone backwards.

Think this mostly sums it up.

Three quality, consistent teams, who you would expect to continue much the same as last year. Leeds - have they judged the shift from old to new right? Hull - must be hard for their fans to have much faith. If they signed the Kangaroos best 13, you'd still fancy whoever was the Hull coach, could somehow mess it up.

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Maybe I am on my own on this, but I find it interesting. I have reservations around whether it will work etc. but I will certainly be watching with interest, in the same way I watched Fev play Cas and Wigan in recent years in the Challenge Cup. 

 

If my understanding is correct, I'll be watching 3 games a week on Sky from Rd 24, with 2 featuring top 8 teams and another featuring the Middle 8 where teams are battling to finish in the top 3 of that group and guarantee SL survival. Personally I find that slightly more appealing than a 10th v 13th SL clash with little to play for.

 

It'll be very interesting to see how out of sync I am with the rest of the fanbase when the crowds and viewing figures are reviewed!

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This.

 

In what world do people get excited by the middle of the pack?

 

The world where it is your own club playing competitive matches, and the perception is that there is something tangible at stake!

 

To follow your point to its' logical conclusion, absolutely no one would even bother watching a team from any other division as they are, by definition, not in the top division.

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I think Cas this year did much to put this kind of stuff to bed. Although it's very hard to see past the big four (five) incumbents most teams have strengthened and there are less of them. (But more games, go figure?) That should mean that every minute does count, and I really hope it does because as much as the international scene is better for a Kiwi win so the Super League would be all the better for some one else being triumphant in the Grand Final! It would be great for everyone, except the incumbents of course!

 

 

 

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I think out of the middle 8 the only game that will get significant interest outside of the clubs involved will be the one between 4th and 5th place.

 

 

This.

 

In what world do people get excited by the middle of the pack?

 

Exactly.

The best against the best or the worst full time teams against semi pro teams....

 

(Having said that, being a southerner I'll be keeping an eye on the middle 8 hoping that London go up and may go to a couple of the games but I really don't like the gimmicky "million £ game".  Personally I'm hoping this new structure is a stepping stone to a franchised 8-10 team league with a 2nd French team, unlikely I know.)

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Hull - must be hard for their fans to have much faith. If they signed the Kangaroos best 13, you'd still fancy whoever was the Hull coach, could somehow mess it up.

 

Certainly Hull will be under massive pressure, the difference between coming 8th, or 9th, financially must be massive. The way your fixture list takes a turn for the worst when you lose touch with Wigan, Leeds and Saints only to find your playing the season out with London, Leigh and Fev must be a financial disaster waiting to happen?

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Certainly Hull will be under massive pressure, the difference between coming 8th, or 9th, financially must be massive. The way your fixture list takes a turn for the worst when you lose touch with Wigan, Leeds and Saints only to find your playing the season out with London, Leigh and Fev must be a financial disaster waiting to happen?

Comparable to 2014.

 

Hull KR (for example) this year played the following home games:

 

St Helens

Wigan

Leeds

Wire

Huddersfield

Cas

Wakefield

Catalans

Widnes

Salford

Hull FC

Bradford

London

 

With the same positions as this year, next year's home fixtures would look like this:

St Helens

Wigan

Leeds

Wire

Huddersfield

Cas

Wakefield

Catalans

Widnes

Salford

Hull FC

Salford

Hull FC

Bradford

London

 

So they would go from 13 home games currently, to 15 next season, still playing all the big teams, with a couple more games against the weaker teams (although based on last season one is their local rival).

 

You could easily change Bradford and London for Fev and Leigh to be fair, but in effect these are additional games, rather than a replacement for top games.

 

So far I have only seen clubs offering season tickets including the Super 8's - are any not offering them? I noticed Wire offer a flexible 6 game ticket, but IIRC they did that anyway.

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Comparable to 2014.

 

Hull KR (for example) this year played the following home games:

 

St Helens

Wigan

Leeds

Wire

Huddersfield

Cas

Wakefield

Catalans

Widnes

Salford

Hull FC

Bradford

London

 

With the same positions as this year, next year's home fixtures would look like this:

St Helens

Wigan

Leeds

Wire

Huddersfield

Cas

Wakefield

Catalans

Widnes

Salford

Hull FC

Salford

Hull FC

Bradford

London

 

So they would go from 13 home games currently, to 15 next season, still playing all the big teams, with a couple more games against the weaker teams (although based on last season one is their local rival).

 

You could easily change Bradford and London for Fev and Leigh to be fair, but in effect these are additional games, rather than a replacement for top games.

 

Well you could compare fixtures like this and HKR could land a fixture list in 2015 little different to this year only with "more fixtures".

 

But SL is clubs competing on the same playing field and the true comparison is between the fixtures you get 2015 as a bottom four club against what you would have got 2015 had you made the eight.

 

For HKR as an example the danger is their "extra home fixtures" may well be London, Fev and Leigh and if so which three top super eight fixtures do they not get? If it was the likes of Wire, Leeds and Saints then clearly it's a bummer.

 

2014 against 2015 isn't the correct comparison, and there's no doubt that if you finish 9th. as against 8th. you have a worse fixture list. That's when the KPMG idea that competing for your SL life then clicks in and crowds don't drop as fans respond to the "meaningful".

 

But would HKR get better crowds with fixtures against second eight clubs or first eight clubs? Again that is the true comparison. Would a dead rubber against Leeds draw more than a play off against Fev or less.

 

We shall very interestingly see.

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Well you could compare fixtures like this and HKR could land a fixture list in 2015 little different to this year only with "more fixtures".

But SL is clubs competing on the same playing field and the true comparison is between the fixtures you get 2015 as a bottom four club against what you would have got 2015 had you made the eight.

For HKR as an example the danger is their "extra home fixtures" may well be London, Fev and Leigh and if so which three top super eight fixtures do they not get? If it was the likes of Wire, Leeds and Saints then clearly it's a bummer.

2014 against 2015 isn't the correct comparison, and there's no doubt that if you finish 9th. as against 8th. you have a worse fixture list. That's when the KPMG idea that competing for your SL life then clicks in and crowds don't drop as fans respond to the "meaningful".

But would HKR get better crowds with fixtures against second eight clubs or first eight clubs? Again that is the true comparison. Would a dead rubber against Leeds draw more than a play off against Fev or less.

We shall very interestingly see.

yes, you are right, however from my point of view, the reason i made that comparison is that is what we have now, so there are a couple of relevant comparisons 1- is it positive to now, 2-in the new world, does finishing outside the top 8 affect your crowds and income to such a level that it weakens the bottom 4 consistently.

I know you think it will, im not convinced yet, we'll see.

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yes, you are right, however from my point of view, the reason i made that comparison is that is what we have now, so there are a couple of relevant comparisons 1- is it positive to now, 2-in the new world, does finishing outside the top 8 affect your crowds and income to such a level that it weakens the bottom 4 consistently.

I know you think it will, im not convinced yet, we'll see.

surely 'weaken ' is more relative to the top 8 than to where you were in 2014.

That is a huge problem for the system. It needs the 'relegation' competition to be MORE attractive than the competing to be champions.

The top clubs, for many reasons already get the best crowds, sponsorship and everything else, they get even better crowds, sponsorship and everything else when they play each other.

Best case scenario at the top of SL is that the super 8's replicates all that one more time per year with the added spice of a trophy.

However that risks leaving everything else behind, it risks exacerbating the gap between the haves and have nots, which is a very vicious cycle for the lesser clubs to get in to.

So we are left with a position where even if 'every second matters' and across the board we see rises in attendances, If that happens disproportionately at the top end that gaps becomes unavoidable.

If that where to happen, then the system just will not work it becomes damaging very quickly. For this system to work it not only needs to grow attendances across the board, it needs to narrow the gap between top and bottom because an entrenched top 8 would make the vast majority of the season entirely pointless

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The world where it is your own club playing competitive matches, and the perception is that there is something tangible at stake!

To follow your point to its' logical conclusion, absolutely no one would even bother watching a team from any other division as they are, by definition, not in the top division.

relatively very few people do watch sport outside the top tier.
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From what i can see the new format will make the top tier play offs more exciting..........AND give us peasants who like the smaller clubs something to play for too

 

The only thing i can see that wouldn't be appealing to some is that it's much harder to get to the Grand final if you finish 5-8th before the split (which it should be) and those who under perform have a small chance of relegation (rather than the certainty of staying up regardless!)

england_identity2.jpg1921_button.jpg

 

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Iirc the top 6 has been pretty similar in makeup for 5-6 years with only 7 & 8 really changing so I'm not sure how it actually changes anything

Bottom 6 Will spend money they don't have to make the top 8 or at least stay in the 12

Ah same bloody problem as ever eh nvm

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relatively very few people do watch sport outside the top tier.

 

This is a major problem, how doy you advertise every minute of every game counts to finish a mid table mediocre team.

 

From a marketing angle it doesn't work.

 

Its a least worst contest.

 

" And now on SKy sports we have an exciting RL game to see who is the best of the worst" or who is worst of the best of the second best.

 

Joe public, the generally not interested in going to a live game but get excited about a top TV game, are going to be cancelling weddings to make sure they don't miss the gripping bottom of the table excitement.

 

We are falling into the trap of reality TV, cheap rubbish is better than expensive class. We need more expensive class not more cheap rubbish.

 

By cheap rubbish I don't mean clubs or teams, I mean formats without trying to raise standards as opposed to attempts to drag the content down to gameshow standards.

 

Clubs should be trying to compete to be the top, not thinking that being the least worst is an achievement. 

Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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This is a major problem, how doy you advertise every minute of every game counts to finish a mid table mediocre team.

 

From a marketing angle it doesn't work.

 

Its a least worst contest.

 

" And now on SKy sports we have an exciting RL game to see who is the best of the worst" or who is worst of the best of the second best.

 

Joe public, the generally not interested in going to a live game but get excited about a top TV game, are going to be cancelling weddings to make sure they don't miss the gripping bottom of the table excitement.

 

We are falling into the trap of reality TV, cheap rubbish is better than expensive class. We need more expensive class not more cheap rubbish.

 

By cheap rubbish I don't mean clubs or teams, I mean formats without trying to raise standards as opposed to attempts to drag the content down to gameshow standards.

 

Clubs should be trying to compete to be the top, not thinking that being the least worst is an achievement. 

 

Exactly. Cancel the TV reality show fixed outcome middle eight rubbish and replace it with a two up, two down p and r system whereby the two promotees are aiming for the top and will have a guaranteed opportunity to make an impact following their promotion.

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