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Lobbygobbler

Enabling Closer games as opposed to tryfest blowouts

109 posts in this topic

Very few games these days are within less than a converted try.

Rovers lost 16 games last season, 9 of which were decided by a no more than a converted try. :)

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Pace and power have become much more dominant though that much he is right about.

Pace, power, fitness and skill. What's wrong with that? Powerful Forwards and skillful Backs.

I agree with the Aussies there are too many interchanges for professionals, 8 - 10 interchanges is just about right, but not for amateurs, keep rolling subs. Although if an amateur team travels with 13 - 14 players then know they have to have the fitness, mental toughness and determination to play the full 80.

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Rovers lost 16 games last season, 9 of which were decided by a no more than a converted try. :)

Not as high as your nine but in 2011 Wigan were involved in 3 draws and 5 other games with one converted try or less difference. Saints also drew 3 games that season (one was a Wigan game) effectively meaning those two teams were involved in 5 draws between them.

.

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Not as high as your nine but in 2011 Wigan were involved in 3 draws and 5 other games with one converted try or less difference. .

.

So that's 8 out of 27 (not sure if you have included cup or playoff games). Less than a third - that doesn't sound that many to me.

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So that's 8 out of 27 (not sure if you have included cup or playoff games). Less than a third - that doesn't sound that many to me.

All games were SL clubs were involved.

For something that is supposedly very rare these days thats' a lot of close games and especially a lot of draws, I didn't count what Saints had in the way of 6 point or less games but I think it was around 2 or 3.

Care to go and find the stats that show that this is any different to the past.in 93/94 Wigan were involved in 6 games that were 6 pts difference or less, one of those though was abandoned after 13mins because of fog. Saints were involved in 4 such games. And significantly more games played. A small sample but as a quick view significant.

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Erm - not really. Those are scores are for both divisions over the whole season. Noteworty is that there are not many scores over 50 points and only one I counted over 60. There have been many of those this year. I wonder if Padge would be kind enough to all post score margins for last season for all three divisions using the same margin discriminator?

But I thought anything over 6 points was a blowout

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But the evidence on both sides of the argument has been anecdotal. There has been no real analysis of blowout scores (definition of a blowout has not even been defined) how often they occur. There have also been assertions like that a 10 point winning is a close game which is complete nonsense because the only data you have is the end score. Also the assertion that blowout scores occur in the last last 10 minutes which is also unsupported and in general untrue.

Lobby defined a blow out as anything with a score difference of more than 1 converted try. Having been blown out of the water by post 39 he tries (his usual trick) of completely changing his stance to match the data presented and redefines a blow out as one team scoring more than 50.

There is nothing anecdotal about the results I posted, straight from the record books, Lobby has been asked how he came to his conclusion and could he back it up with something other than his anecdotal evidence. Thus far he has failed (yet again) miserably to provide one single shred of evidence to back up his assertion.

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Lobby defined a blow out as anything with a score difference of more than 1 converted try. Having been blown out of the water by post 39 he tries (his usual trick) of completely changing his stance to match the data presented and redefines a blow out as one team scoring more than 50.

There is nothing anecdotal about the results I posted, straight from the record books, Lobby has been asked how he came to his conclusion and could he back it up with something other than his anecdotal evidence. Thus far he has failed (yet again) miserably to provide one single shred of evidence to back up his assertion.

Look at the score margins here. This is just SL as well. The scores you posted (approx half of them) were also for div 2, and the cups, so there werent many same league blowouts in 1983/84. Contrastingly there were a whopping 21 SL games were the winning team got 50 pts or more! And 7 matches were the winning team got 60 pts or more. Compare that with div 1 results only in 1983/84

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_league/results/6484501.stm

All I want to see is closer games

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Look at the score margins here. This is just SL as well. The scores you posted (approx half of them) were also for div 2, and the cups, so there werent many same league blowouts in 1983/84. Contrastingly there were a whopping 21 SL games were the winning team got 50 pts or more! And 7 matches were the winning team got 60 pts or more. Compare that with div 1 results only in 1983/84

http://news.bbc.co.u...lts/6484501.stm

All I want to see is closer games

You said blow its didn't use to happen (or were extremely rare)

Look at these score here, all first division clashes.

Castleford 42 Bradford 12

Castleford 42 Wakefield 12

Castleford 16 Leeds 41

Castleford 76 Rochdale 12

Featherstone 54 Barrow 16

Hull 40 Featherstone 22

Hull KR 42 Oldham 14

Hull KR 48 Rochdale 14

Hull KR 16 Sheffield 62

Leeds 64 Rochdale 4

Leeds 52 Featherstone 20

Leeds 41 Castleford 16

Rochdale 4 Wigan 44

Rochdale 20 Widnes 44

Rochdale 0 Castleford 42

Saints 62 Warrington 16

Saints 42 Hull KR 10

Saints 44 Rochdale 14

Saints 54 Featherstone 38

Eagles 4 Wigan 46

Wakefield 42 Rochdale 6

Widnes 41 Featherstone 14

Widnes 60 Rochdale 6

Widnes 46 Castleford 4

Widnes 42 Featherstone 28

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You said blow its didn't use to happen (or were extremely rare)

Look at these score here, all first division clashes.

Castleford 42 Bradford 12

Castleford 42 Wakefield 12

Castleford 16 Leeds 41

Castleford 76 Rochdale 12

Featherstone 54 Barrow 16

Hull 40 Featherstone 22

Hull KR 42 Oldham 14

Hull KR 48 Rochdale 14

Hull KR 16 Sheffield 62

Leeds 64 Rochdale 4

Leeds 52 Featherstone 20

Leeds 41 Castleford 16

Rochdale 4 Wigan 44

Rochdale 20 Widnes 44

Rochdale 0 Castleford 42

Saints 62 Warrington 16

Saints 42 Hull KR 10

Saints 44 Rochdale 14

Saints 54 Featherstone 38

Eagles 4 Wigan 46

Wakefield 42 Rochdale 6

Widnes 41 Featherstone 14

Widnes 60 Rochdale 6

Widnes 46 Castleford 4

Widnes 42 Featherstone 28

And all from different seasons, some of which were more recent! Certainly not from the season you used as a reference. Within a single season blowouts were pretty rare until the 10m rule was brought in.

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More points are being scored in RL games - ok, ok I need some facts, but I don't recall 42-40, or 62-18, or 36-40 in the 70's, 80's or 90's

One season isn't enough of a sample, my guess is that there will be a trend line upwards in the points per game average.

If that points per game average is trending upwards, then the blowouts are going to be of a bigger margin as well, on average.

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And all from different seasons, some of which were more recent! Certainly not from the season you used as a reference. Within a single season blowouts were pretty rare until the 10m rule was brought in.

That was under the 5m rule, all from one season, 1990/91, all from division one clashes.

When are you going to give up?

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More points are being scored in RL games - ok, ok I need some facts, but I don't recall 42-40, or 62-18, or 36-40 in the 70's, 80's or 90's

One season isn't enough of a sample, my guess is that there will be a trend line upwards in the points per game average.

If that points per game average is trending upwards, then the blowouts are going to be of a bigger margin as well, on average.

apart from the facts prove you pretty much wrong.

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Does this prove anything other than the points per game has increased :

Season pts/game 1983/84 37.36 1984/85 39.13 1985/86 35.05 1986/87 38.93 1987/88 37.88 1988/89 37.97 1989/90 42.07 1990/91 38.70 1991/92 37.42 1992/93 38.91 1993/94 41.16 1994/95 45.89 1995/96 50.05 1996 55.79 1997 46.70 1998 43.63 1999 46.00 2000 49.49 2001 52.43 2002 49.67 2003 48.21 2004 50.06 2005 55.40 2006 49.10 2007 46.05 2008 49.48 2009 45.97 2010 48.00 2011 49.67 2012 53.12

Under the 4 point try i.e the seasons above, the points per game jumped by about 8 points from 29 ppg to 37 ppg

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That was under the 5m rule, all from one season, 1990/91, all from division one clashes.

When are you going to give up?

Had forgotten that Rochdale went up around then so apologies for my oversight. Nevertheless only 8 games in the season you quoted showed a result where the winning team scored 50pts or more (I think div 1 also had 16 teams too and P&R!). Contrast that with last year in SL where there were 21 games where the winning club scored 50pts or more. I think this does show that points are piled on easier nowadays. However, what I would like to know is how the average winning margin in the top tier has changed since 1980, as I acknowledge that a simple glance at how high the winning score is, is actually too simplistic. If I get some time I'd like to analyse this in a spreadsheet for say 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2012

I've never seen the average winning margin statistic mentioned, though it is a very important indicator of how naibiting matches are

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Does this prove anything other than the points per game has increased :

Season pts/game 1983/84 37.36 1984/85 39.13 1985/86 35.05 1986/87 38.93 1987/88 37.88 1988/89 37.97 1989/90 42.07 1990/91 38.70 1991/92 37.42 1992/93 38.91 1993/94 41.16 1994/95 45.89 1995/96 50.05 1996 55.79 1997 46.70 1998 43.63 1999 46.00 2000 49.49 2001 52.43 2002 49.67 2003 48.21 2004 50.06 2005 55.40 2006 49.10 2007 46.05 2008 49.48 2009 45.97 2010 48.00 2011 49.67 2012 53.12

Under the 4 point try i.e the seasons above, the points per game jumped by about 8 points from 29 ppg to 37 ppg

I think it does show how less cherished each try is becoming. There seems to be a general significant increase after the 10m rule came in. However a more useful statistic is the average winning margin in the top tier.

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More points are being scored in RL games - ok, ok I need some facts, but I don't recall 42-40, or 62-18, or 36-40 in the 70's, 80's or 90's

One season isn't enough of a sample, my guess is that there will be a trend line upwards in the points per game average.

If that points per game average is trending upwards, then the blowouts are going to be of a bigger margin as well, on average.

How about:

1 Year all in the first division and I probably didn't get them all as I was losing the will.

72-12 Bradford v Hunslet

44- 16 Bradford v Leigh

18-42 Bradford v Hull KR

32- 0 Castleford v Leigh

42-19 Featherstone v Hunslet

40-12 Halifax v Workington

12-44 Widnes v Halifax

46-22 Hull v Saints

30-33 Hull v Leigh

64-18 Hull v Workington

46-0 Hull KR v Featherstone

40-18 Hull KR v Barrow

42 -14 Hull KR v Hunslet

19-42 Hunslet v Featherstone

7-68 Hunslet v Saints

26-58 Hunslet v Hull

8-50 Hunslet v Leeds

16-48 Hunslet v Wigan

16-48 Hunslet v Warrington

40-41 Hunslet v Barrow

43-10 Leeds v Widnes

44-14 Leigh v Hunslet

44-12 Leigh v Workington

44-2 Oldham v Workington

44-8 Oldham v Barrow

46-18 Oldham v Hunslet

44-6 Oldham v Workington

62-0 Saints v Workington

56-16 Saints v Leigh

59-2 saints v Barrow

48-16 Saints v Leeds

52-6 Wigan v Workington

84/85 is the season.

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Had forgotten that Rochdale went up around then so apologies for my oversight. Nevertheless only 8 games in the season you quoted showed a result where the winning team scored 50pts or more (I think div 1 also had 16 teams too and P&R!). Contrast that with last year in SL where there were 21 games where the winning club scored 50pts or more. I think this does show that points are piled on easier nowadays. However, what I would like to know is how the average winning margin in the top tier has changed since 1980, as I acknowledge that a simple glance at how high the winning score is, is actually too simplistic. If I get some time I'd like to analyse this in a spreadsheet for say 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2012

I've never seen the average winning margin statistic mentioned, though it is a very important indicator of how naibiting matches are

You are once again changing your original point as it dawns on you that your original assertion was completely wrong.

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The Hull 64-18 v Workington - Town were instructed by the RFL to play 3 games in 4 days due to a fixture backlog. My father spoke to some players after this game and they could barely move during the game (evidently).

9 games where the winner scored 50 points plus. 20 games of a 30 points or more winning margin. That is the bar now to be measured against.

Apologies for my lack of a table in the previous points per game post - Excel and Mac's or I haven't used or learnt tables in a post before

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Right, I got a bit of spare time so I put this together: Average margin per game in a selection of divisions:

MarginSelection.png.opt526x282o0%2C0s526x282.png

It appears to me that averages went up in the NRL but have dropped again - the same relative improvement in defence has not yet occurred in Super League. Either that, or it illustrates that the weaker teams don't cope so well, and those weaker teams don't exist in the NRL.

I could do a more comprehensive analysis at some point, these are just years picked without much consideration for outliers.

Another thing to look at - lower division scores only spread out a few years after the league was split in two. Similar timing to the increase in professionalism in the 80s?

As they say, pick the bones out of that.

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The Hull 64-18 v Workington - Town were instructed by the RFL to play 3 games in 4 days due to a fixture backlog. My father spoke to some players after this game and they could barely move during the game (evidently).

9 games where the winner scored 50 points plus. 20 games of a 30 points or more winning margin. That is the bar now to be measured against.

Apologies for my lack of a table in the previous points per game post - Excel and Mac's or I haven't used or learnt tables in a post before

And in 90/91 Wigan had to play how many games in 10 days to win the league?

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Right, I got a bit of spare time so I put this together: Average margin per game in a selection of divisions:

MarginSelection.png.opt526x282o0%2C0s526x282.png

It appears to me that averages went up in the NRL but have dropped again - the same relative improvement in defence has not yet occurred in Super League. Either that, or it illustrates that the weaker teams don't cope so well, and those weaker teams don't exist in the NRL.

I could do a more comprehensive analysis at some point, these are just years picked without much consideration for outliers.

Another thing to look at - lower division scores only spread out a few years after the league was split in two. Similar timing to the increase in professionalism in the 80s?

As they say, pick the bones out of that.

Nice work. I appreciate it's a selection of years but it shows the general trend is that the average margin of victory has increased over the years in England. It's a good indication that the contests are not as close now. The only way we can compete with the Aussies at international level is to increase the intensity of the matches in SL. There are still too many easy games in SL.

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Nice work. I appreciate it's a selection of years but it shows the general trend is that the average margin of victory has increased over the years in England. It's a good indication that the contests are not as close now. The only way we can compete with the Aussies at international level is to increase the intensity of the matches in SL. There are still too many easy games in SL.

The problem is that it isn't actually anything to do with the OP, which was we don't see narrow margins any more (proven wrong) and we never used to get blow outs before (proven wrong), we are now on a different idea, are score margins widening.

Lobby will now jump in and say this is what he meant all along.

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