Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

John Drake

EU - In or Out?

European Union - Should the UK be In or Out?   62 members have voted

  1. 1. European Union - Should the UK be In or Out?

    • In
      36
    • Out
      26

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

241 posts in this topic

He certainly is.

It has nothing to do with preventing the electorate having a fair say on anything. He wants to kill this as a focus of sedition and mutiny on his backbenches and take the wind out of UKIPs sails. You are quite correct though, that it is an empty political gesture.

I'd rather cut my balls off with pinking shears than vote UKIP.

Me too. I'd rather cut your balls off with pinking shears than vote UKIP. :)

OK, so I'm not quite on the left side of politics by there is no way I'd vote UKIP. I like Farage but only because he makes the main parties sweat.

However, it is interesting to see the French reaction as Cameron's approach is exactly that of the French trades unions when they are negotiating with the French govt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How would voting UKIP force the issue? It would take a massive and wholly improbably vote shift for them to get a single MP in Parliament in 2015 under our electoral system, let alone enough MPs to hold any kind of influence after the election. That may not be fair (it isn't), but it is the reality of the situation. They may win enough votes in some areas to cause a few Tory MPs to lose their seats, but given the Tories are the only party offering a referendum anyway, that's a self defeating outcome if a referendum is what you're truly after.

I reckon:

At the next election, half the Libdem vote will pass to Labour and not many to the Tories. A significant proportion of the Tory and Labour vote will pass to UKIP. As the current constituency boundaries will remain, Labour has an inbuilt edge over the Tories.

I suspect that three or four Tory MP's will defect to UKIP as a combination of being anti-EU, anti-immigration and being really keen to hold on to their seats.

The crunch will come if UKIP gains significant seats(5? 10?). Cameron could then be obliged to form a coalition of Tory, Unionist and UKIP members. A pact with Farage will not come cheap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Walking out of the door won't stop its influence on the UK but it will prevent the UK having any influence on what it does. That would be madness, IMO.

That's exactly what some were saying about us not joining the Euro. Joining the Euro would have been a disaster though and frankly I can't say us not having any influence (if indeed we haven't had any influence) has made a smidgen's worth of difference to our own financial situation. However, not being a part of the Eurozone has probably enabled us to stay free of financial calamity and years of externally imposed sanctions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's exactly what some were saying about us not joining the Euro. Joining the Euro would have been a disaster though and frankly I can't say us not having any influence (if indeed we haven't had any influence) has made a smidgen's worth of difference to our own financial situation. However, not being a part of the Eurozone has probably enabled us to stay free of financial calamity and years of externally imposed sanctions.

Thanks Gordon. You'll be proved right in the end...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's exactly what some were saying about us not joining the Euro. Joining the Euro would have been a disaster though and frankly I can't say us not having any influence (if indeed we haven't had any influence) has made a smidgen's worth of difference to our own financial situation. However, not being a part of the Eurozone has probably enabled us to stay free of financial calamity and years of externally imposed sanctions.

And you know this to be true because.......?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't really see that a referendum will make much difference. It will be worded so carefully that, whichever way we vote, the government will claim they have been given a mandate to do exactly what they were going to do anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

enabled us to stay free of financial calamity

This did make me laugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This did make me laugh.

If you think what we have been through since the banking crash is a financial calamity then you either are too young, under-educated or ill informed (or a combination of the three).

Greece is a financial calamity. But even Greece looks like a lottery winner to, say, England in the 1930s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And you know this to be true because.......?

Because we can still decide for ourselves how to deal with the economic downturn (if indeed that is what it still is) within the context of our own country (its strengths and weaknesses) and we can do so without other countries determining what should be our standard, beyond the usual trading fluctuations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I predict UKIP to be successful in the next European Parliament Elections.

They do ok when not many people vote.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because we can still decide for ourselves how to deal with the economic downturn (if indeed that is what it still is) within the context of our own country (its strengths and weaknesses) and we can do so without other countries determining what should be our standard, beyond the usual trading fluctuations.

Do you think we are deciding for ourselves?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just been having a boozy lunch with a member of the Labour party about this. Well, it was about something else but after a few glasses we got on to Farage.

We agreed that - despite wanting to punch Cameron in the nuts repeatedly until he howls - the Tories are playing a good game here. They're neutralising why vote Ukip with the referendum whilst also getting the golf club bores to sound forth on topics other than Europe. Ukip may get 10+% in the election but they won't get an MP and then afterwards they will become the Veritas Party they were always destined to be.

Jon, stop being a wind-up merchant. ;) Let it rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I reckon:

At the next election, half the Libdem vote will pass to Labour and not many to the Tories. A significant proportion of the Tory and Labour vote will pass to UKIP. As the current constituency boundaries will remain, Labour has an inbuilt edge over the Tories.

I suspect that three or four Tory MP's will defect to UKIP as a combination of being anti-EU, anti-immigration and being really keen to hold on to their seats.

The crunch will come if UKIP gains significant seats(5? 10?). Cameron could then be obliged to form a coalition of Tory, Unionist and UKIP members. A pact with Farage will not come cheap.

It'll be a judgement on the economy that determines the outcome of the next election. Who do people trust (or least distrust, perhaps) to create jobs and keep them in employment with a roof over their head. That's always the key issue. Europe will be a footnote to the campaign. Recall William Hague's doomed 2001 Tory campaign slogan: 'Only 7 days to save the Pound". It made zero impression on the public or the result, regardless of the degree to which it obsessed certain sections of the Tory Party and the media.

I'll make a prediction that UKIP will not only fail to win a single seat in Parliament in 2015, but that they won't even come close to overtaking the Lib Dems in vote share, regardless of the latter's current unpopularity. They are doing well in by-elections (though still not well enough to actually win one) at the moment due to being the latest recepticle for protest voters to dump their vote on. They will do much better in the Euro Elections because of the PR electoral system and low turnout - only the rabid and the politically dedicated bother to vote in those - which tells you all you need to know about how much of a key issue the EU won't be when the General Election rolls round. That won't stop pundits extrapolating those results and making wild predictions of sweeping UKIP gains at Westminster in 2015 because that's what they do to fill airtime. It doesn't mean it'll happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, can someone give me a good reason why I shouldn't vote UKIP?

And, can someone give me good reason why we shouldn't be in the EU, as against why we should.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you think we are deciding for ourselves?

When compared to those in the eurozone? Yes. When compared to those in, say, the USA? No.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll be a judgement on the economy that determines the outcome of the next election. Who do people trust (or least distrust, perhaps) to create jobs and keep them in employment with a roof over their head.

At present that would be the coalition, given the continued rise in employment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why do we have to wait until 2017 or 2018 for this vote? The separatists have wanted this referendum all their lives, why don’t they just get on with it now?

While they run scared, UK businesses will be crippled by uncertainty and foreign investors won’t want to invest in the country.

We need to know all the policies that the future UK government has in place if it wants to separate from the EU, what they’ll cost and how many jobs will be lost as a result. And we need to know all these things right now, in every last detail, in order that the electorate can know exactly what they’re voting for rather than being asked to endorse some British-nationalist pig in a poke.

;)

Seriously, this is all to do with the internal conflicts within the Tory Party and the perceived threat from UKIP (overstated - come the general election most defectors to UKIP will switch back to the Tories).

If the referendum takes place (and I have my doubts) then it will probably be similar to the 1975 plebiscite. The government will 're-negotiate' membership, win some limited concessions, and present these as some great breakthrough. They will obviously campaign for a yes vote, as will other mainstream parties, and the general consensus in the press, business and civic society will be that continued membership is essential. The support for withdrawal will disappear like snow off a dyke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Dave wants to leave the EU (labour and lib dems don't) but this is more a way of getting his MP's back in order and to snuff out any rebellion.

Dave seems to know that they need to stay on the middle ground to have any chance in elections. Many in his party seem to not agree or understand this. I get the impression that Dave wanted to change the party to get votes, where some of his MP's think the country is wrong rather than the party.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At present that would be the coalition, given the continued rise in employment.

The coalition won't appear on the ballot paper, and it'll be about the economic situation as it is in 2015, not as it is now. It might be better, it could be a lot worse. The rise in employment can't be taken in isolation as an indicator of electoral success. If you once had a well paid full-time job, but are now scraping along in a 'new' but poorly paid part-time job and relying on working tax credits (now cut or capped) to survive, are you going to reward the incumbent government for your situation, or curse them for it? Figures can be presented to make any government look good, but votes in the ballot box will be based on each individual voter's actual experiences at the time. The last election is a good indicator. Although the economy was actually growing fairly well in the latter months of Gordon Brown's government, the electorate held them responsible for what had gone before and punished them for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much emphasis is placed on dissent within the Tory party membership, but in my everyday conversations I find plenty of disappointment with the Labour performance from lifelong supporters.

David Cameron v Ed Miliband v Nick Clegg v Nigel Farage

=

Lord Snooty v Little Lord Fauntleroy v Walter from Denis the Menace v Jeremy Clarkson

If Farage can't take votes from that lot, this country has had it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with UKIP is they want to take us out of the EU but then what? What are they proposing to do about the economy, schools, the NHS etc, etc? No one really knows. That's the problem with single issue parties, they focus solely on that issue at the expense of everything else. Fortunately most of the public realise this & give them a wide birth when it comes to general election time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with UKIP is they want to take us out of the EU but then what? What are they proposing to do about the economy, schools, the NHS etc, etc? No one really knows. That's the problem with single issue parties, they focus solely on that issue at the expense of everything else. Fortunately most of the public realise this & give them a wide birth when it comes to general election time.

They are not just a single issue party but seemingly a single person party.

There is a reason they don't let most of their hierarcy on TV or radio...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are not just a single issue party but seemingly a single person party.

There is a reason they don't let most of their hierarcy on TV or radio...

They have a hierarchy? :O

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have a hierarchy? :O

I'll let you google who UKIP's 'Scotland leader' is. He is an interesting character...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because we can still decide for ourselves how to deal with the economic downturn (if indeed that is what it still is) within the context of our own country (its strengths and weaknesses) and we can do so without other countries determining what should be our standard, beyond the usual trading fluctuations.

The Greek financial crisis had nothing to do with their membership or otherwise of the Euro, it had everything to do with the entire country systematically spending money they hadn't got while evading or failing to collect any taxes, by being in the EU and Euro when the chickens finally came back to the Acropolis to roost there was at least a bail out plan to stop a collapse into bankruptcy.

Even the most superficial examination of the facts can only conclude that their situation was entirely caused by their own actions and entirely saved by their membership of the EU and Euro, unless that is of course you either are too young, under-educated or ill informed (or a combination of the three).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



Rugby League World - April 2017

League Express - Mon 10th April 2017