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John Drake

Eastleigh By-Election: Who would you vote for?

Who would you vote for in the Eastleigh By-Election?   25 members have voted

  1. 1. Who would you vote for in the Eastleigh By-Election?

    • COLIN BEX - Wessex Regionalists
      0
    • DAVID BISHOP - Elvis Loves Pets Party
      3
    • JIM DUGGAN - Peace Party
      0
    • RAY HALL - Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party
      2
    • HOWLING LAUD HOPE - Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party
      2
    • MARIA HUTCHINGS - Conservative
      2
    • DIANE JAMES - UK Independence Party
      3
    • DR IAIN MACLENNAN - National Health Action Party
      2
    • KEVIN MILBURN - Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship"
      0
    • JOHN O'FARRELL - Labour
      5
    • DARREN PROCTER - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
      2
    • DANNY STUPPLE - Independent
      0
    • MIKE THORNTON - Liberal Democrats
      3
    • MICHAEL WALTERS - English Democrats
      1

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56 posts in this topic

Very true... I do wonder if this could lead to a challenge to Cameron's leadership! Also I don't think going to 4 party politics is a bad thing (even though I disagree with UKIP fairly fundamentally), just need a few more decent parties so there are some decent options.

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By sheer numbers UKIP must be delighted with the result.

The UKIP result indicates to me that the economy has been regarded of secondary importance at Eastleigh, which I don't imagine has a significant problem with ethnic minorities.

I think it's an indication that:

- the next election will be won and lost on immigration policy.

- UKIP can take votes off both Conservative and Labour candidates.

That being the case, Cameron will change his tune but the Miliband administration is a dead duck. If Labour wants to stand any chance of winning a General election, it's got to ditch him now.

Let's hope so. It would be good riddance to Little Lord Fauntleroy.

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Nah Labour were always on a hiding to nothing in Eastleigh. It was the Conservatives to lose, and even with their slick media machine managed to fail. Current predictions give Labour a 112 seat majority so, whilst I personally as an outside think Milliband is useless they'd be stupid to get rid of him.

Cameron on the other hand is an interesting matter, the knives will be out by the far right, and yet he is still deemed by many as the best thing about the Conservative party. If they get rid of him a Conservative party that swings as far to the right as the US Republic party could be very dangerous, although I would hope that such fanaticism and libertarian views would be a general turn off to the voters over here.

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- the next election will be won and lost on immigration policy.

Sorry to disappoint, but no, it absolutely won't.

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The UKIP result indicates that they got plenty of protest votes. Their problem has been (and always will be) holding on to those votes come the General Election.

Lib-Dems hold, with a smaller margin. Standard, no surprises result, although it was a very decent turnout for a change.

Conservatives and Labour were never going to win. Labour probably hoped to increase their vote though, which didn't happen.

Political hacks churn out page after page after page of bloated, convoluted speculation and flimflam - no change.

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Most impressively they actually got a referendum on a better voting system. It will be difficult for me to forgive labour for not supporting that one.

Less impressively, it was a referendum on a voting system that not even the Lib Dems themselves wanted, which made it virtually impossible to sell the idea to anyone else, hence the overwhelming defeat. Perhaps I'm mistaken here, but I seem to recall the leader of the Labour Party urging people to vote yes in the referendum.

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The UKIP result indicates that they got plenty of protest votes. Their problem has been (and always will be) holding on to those votes come the General Election.

Lib-Dems hold, with a smaller margin. Standard, no surprises result, although it was a very decent turnout for a change.

Conservatives and Labour were never going to win. Labour probably hoped to increase their vote though, which didn't happen.

Political hacks churn out page after page after page of bloated, convoluted speculation and flimflam - no change.

One thing you can always be sure of after a By-Election is that everyone involved will claim to have won it in some way or other, regardless of how the actual votes have stacked up.

And it won't foretell the result of a General Election either, though lots of people will pretend that it does,

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Nah Labour were always on a hiding to nothing in Eastleigh. It was the Conservatives to lose, and even with their slick media machine managed to fail. Current predictions give Labour a 112 seat majority so, whilst I personally as an outside think Milliband is useless they'd be stupid to get rid of him.

Cameron on the other hand is an interesting matter, the knives will be out by the far right, and yet he is still deemed by many as the best thing about the Conservative party. If they get rid of him a Conservative party that swings as far to the right as the US Republic party could be very dangerous, although I would hope that such fanaticism and libertarian views would be a general turn off to the voters over here.

Labour did a bit worse than I expected but I doubt that will worry them overly - it does mean that a 1997-style sweep across the country must be out of the question in the next election. It looks like Ukip, in the south at least, are safe protest vote for disaffected Tories. Interesting opinion offered this morning was that for all the comment made about the relative silence of the Tory candidate the Ukip one was also mute for vast amounts of time - and the suggestion is that had it been Farage himself wailing on then their result would have been a lot worse. It is noticeable that he himself doesn't poll particularly well for all his bluster. If Ukip are to have any chance of holding votes or even winning a seat they'll need to be on the best behaviour from now until May 2015 and can they be trusted to do that?

Labour don't need to ditch Milliband - in fact they need to realise that their lead is holding up very strongly despite the negative perceptions. People in general don't like politicians to act like politicians so the worst thing they could do is starting getting all Machiavelli at the exact same time as the Tories are about to implode.

I don't think immigration will be the main focus of the election. If it's anything other than the economy I'll eat Wolford's faux Celtic nationalism, although foreigners taking jobs may play a part in that. The obvious response is that there needs to be investment in industry, education and training ... and the Coalition has cut back on all of those things. Not having to come up with an alternative plan - indeed, having had much the same plan - is why it's easier in opposition.

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Less impressively, it was a referendum on a voting system that not even the Lib Dems themselves wanted, which made it virtually impossible to sell the idea to anyone else, hence the overwhelming defeat. Perhaps I'm mistaken here, but I seem to recall the leader of the Labour Party urging people to vote yes in the referendum.

Whilst AV wasn't great it was an improvement on FPTP. Small steps and all... they'd never have got anywhere in a referendum for full proportional representation with STV. So yes, getting the referendum, for me still counts as a success.

It wasn't Labour encouraging people to vote yes! Milliband was actually clever in the run up to the referendum. He supported AV (to appeal to Lib Dem voters I assume), yet ALL his party big beasts were in the no campaign. That always felt strategic to me.

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Labour don't need to ditch Milliband - in fact they need to realise that their lead is holding up very strongly despite the negative perceptions.

I don't think immigration will be the main focus of the election. If it's anything other than the economy I'll eat Wolford's faux Celtic nationalism, although foreigners taking jobs may play a part in that.

I'm a proud Celt, not a Celtic Nationalist. To claim that I'm a Celtic nationalist is just cow clap, and you're more than welcome to eat as much of it as you like.

It's the arrival of foreigners that won't be taking jobs that concerns people. Still, every cloud has a silver lining for somebody ... the charity sector is always looking for a new body of scroungers to use as a basis for new appeal campaigns.

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Whilst AV wasn't great it was an improvement on FPTP. Small steps and all... they'd never have got anywhere in a referendum for full proportional representation with STV. So yes, getting the referendum, for me still counts as a success.

It wasn't Labour encouraging people to vote yes! Milliband was actually clever in the run up to the referendum. He supported AV (to appeal to Lib Dem voters I assume), yet ALL his party big beasts were in the no campaign. That always felt strategic to me.

The lack of any PR is going to make the next election very strange. I can't see how there's going to be anything like a national picture but rather a lot of highly localised campaigns. Labour should have enough votes across the board to get a workable majority but the fractured nature of the country, plus the possibility of any number of protest vote options makes that picture murkier. Another hung parliament wouldn't surprise me only this time without the possibility of saying "add these two together to get a coalition".

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the charity sector is always looking for a new body of scroungers to use as a basis for new appeal campaigns.

Just working on one for (predominately white, working class) men in the north in their 50s and over who might want to go on living for as long as possible whilst being able to have a drink.

Bunch of scroungers.

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If Ukip are to have any chance of holding votes or even winning a seat they'll need to be on the best behaviour from now until May 2015 and can they be trusted to do that?

They put up discredited ex-Tory waffle merchant Neil Hamilton as their spokesman on Question Time last night. That doesn't bode well for them if people like him are the best they've got. It was hilarious and depressing in equal measure listening to him witter on about why voters are disillusioned with politics when a big reason voters are disillusioned with politics is because it is infested with chancers like him.

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The lack of any PR is going to make the next election very strange. I can't see how there's going to be anything like a national picture but rather a lot of highly localised campaigns. Labour should have enough votes across the board to get a workable majority but the fractured nature of the country, plus the possibility of any number of protest vote options makes that picture murkier. Another hung parliament wouldn't surprise me only this time without the possibility of saying "add these two together to get a coalition".

Well before this government it was always though a coalition could not run a stable government, maybe the next term will show a minority government can manage to run the UK. These two could force the political parties to grow up a bit. PR would be welcome for mine! I never understood Labours reluctance.

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They put up discredited ex-Tory waffle merchant Neil Hamilton as their spokesman on Question Time last night. That doesn't bode well for them if people like him are the best they've got. It was hilarious and depressing in equal measure listening to him witter on about why voters are disillusioned with politics when a big reason voters are disillusioned with politics is because it is infested with chancers like him.

I thought that was an odd move by UKIP. No one on the panel seemed to take Hamilton seriously. I really don't like Farage but have got to admit that he does generally perform well on QT.

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Whilst AV wasn't great it was an improvement on FPTP. Small steps and all... they'd never have got anywhere in a referendum for full proportional representation with STV. So yes, getting the referendum, for me still counts as a success.

It wasn't Labour encouraging people to vote yes! Milliband was actually clever in the run up to the referendum. He supported AV (to appeal to Lib Dem voters I assume), yet ALL his party big beasts were in the no campaign. That always felt strategic to me.

That referendum defeat was their most spectacular and crushing failure. A disaster that has set back the cause of electoral reform for years. Their big chance to achieve a lasting change and they totally blew it by allowing themselves to be completely outmaneouvred by the Tories, alienating Labour and not being able to enthuse genuine supporters of PR either.

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In my opinion, QT was particularly poor last night. Hamilton is the sort of person that will attract people that fit the UKIP template. Loach made maybe a couple of good points but he clearly doesn't do irony.

Perry represented to me almost but not quite the worst of Tory MPs

The congenitally interruptive Eagle - who had the temerity to complain about being interrupted herself when all night long she was wittering over the top of everyone - is living proof as to why Labour will not win the next election. Why? In April 2008 Eagle took part in a debate in Parliament on the UK economy in which the Liberal Democrats tabled a motion suggesting that the country was facing an 'extreme bubble in the housing market and the 'risk of recession'. Eagle responded stating "Fortunately for all of us...that colourful and lurid fiction has no real bearing on the macro-economic reality." see here

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That referendum defeat was their most spectacular and crushing failure. A disaster that has set back the cause of electoral reform for years. Their big chance to achieve a lasting change and they totally blew it by allowing themselves to be completely outmaneouvred by the Tories, alienating Labour and not being able to enthuse genuine supporters of PR either.

But since the alternatives political parties have never supported anything further than AV, I still view getting the question asked as a success. If Labour has supported it wholeheartedly it would have been far more difficult for the conservatives to dominate the narrative.

Of course AV+ was of course the solution recommended to Tony Blair, who had a manifesto pledge to implement electoral reform. He and the Labour party then went on to the spectacular sum of no electoral reform whilst (and probably because) he had a significant majority.

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Labour did a bit worse than I expected but I doubt that will worry them overly - it does mean that a 1997-style sweep across the country must be out of the question in the next election. It looks like Ukip, in the south at least, are safe protest vote for disaffected Tories. Interesting opinion offered this morning was that for all the comment made about the relative silence of the Tory candidate the Ukip one was also mute for vast amounts of time - and the suggestion is that had it been Farage himself wailing on then their result would have been a lot worse. It is noticeable that he himself doesn't poll particularly well for all his bluster. If Ukip are to have any chance of holding votes or even winning a seat they'll need to be on the best behaviour from now until May 2015 and can they be trusted to do that?

Labour don't need to ditch Milliband - in fact they need to realise that their lead is holding up very strongly despite the negative perceptions. People in general don't like politicians to act like politicians so the worst thing they could do is starting getting all Machiavelli at the exact same time as the Tories are about to implode.

I don't think immigration will be the main focus of the election. If it's anything other than the economy I'll eat Wolford's faux Celtic nationalism, although foreigners taking jobs may play a part in that. The obvious response is that there needs to be investment in industry, education and training ... and the Coalition has cut back on all of those things. Not having to come up with an alternative plan - indeed, having had much the same plan - is why it's easier in opposition.

As soon as the likes of Farage and Hamilton open their mouths any appeal UKIP has to traditional Labour voters disappears. They immediately remind everyone that when you get past their position on the EU, which in fairness is shared by lots of people on the left, UKIP is little more than a group of ultra-Thatcherites. When they manage to put people on the ground and in the local media who sound even halfway normal their support rises. The problem they'll face at the next election is that whatever national media attention they do get will be focused entirely on the people who deter voters from supporting them,

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In my opinion, QT was particularly poor last night. Hamilton is the sort of person that will attract people that fit the UKIP template. Loach made maybe a couple of good points but he clearly doesn't do irony.

Perry represented to me almost but not quite the worst of Tory MPs

The congenitally interruptive Eagle - who had the temerity to complain about being interrupted herself when all night long she was wittering over the top of everyone - is living proof as to why Labour will not win the next election. Why? In April 2008 Eagle took part in a debate in Parliament on the UK economy in which the Liberal Democrats tabled a motion suggesting that the country was facing an 'extreme bubble in the housing market and the 'risk of recession'. Eagle responded stating "Fortunately for all of us...that colourful and lurid fiction has no real bearing on the macro-economic reality." see here

I went to school with her and her sister, Maria Eagle. All I can say about them is that they were extremely intelligent (she was under 18s chess champion) , but unfortunately they both seem lacking in even the most basic common sense (not an un-common phenomenon with some very bright people). Their father, Anton is still active in the local Labour party - another bunch of witless clowns IMO. I have been considering taking a more active role in politics in the last couple of years, but frankly knowing a fair few of the major players in the local party puts me right off - I really don't think I could stomach more than half an hour in the same room as some of them. :ph34r:

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the sad thing is, I think, that your experience is not unusual, whatever the party.

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Just working on one for (predominately white, working class) men in the north in their 50s and over who might want to go on living for as long as possible whilst being able to have a drink.

Bunch of scroungers.

That's brilliant news!

How much can you send me?

B)

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Sorry to disappoint you bet we're not all wail & torygraph reading xenaphopes.

The him-ig-rants thing is way down the list of stuff to worry about behind the economy, health, education etc.

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One thing you can always be sure of after a By-Election is that everyone involved will claim to have won it in some way or other, regardless of how the actual votes have stacked up.

And it won't foretell the result of a General Election either, though lots of people will pretend that it does,

Quite right.

Here's my take on the result, as fair as I can make it.

1. Lib Dems - they'll be very, very relieved that they won after the week from hell. It's a great result for them. Eastleigh is a true Lib Dem stronghold and losing here would have been an absolute catastophe for them. As far as I know, they fought a typical LibDem local campaign. The activists will be really boosted by this and Clegg is probably safe now until the next election. This is, however, tempered by the fact that their vote share was significantly down. In fact, they dropped 15 points in the share of vote, which actually mirrors the drop they show in national opinion polls. They won here because they were so far ahead in the first place and UKIP split the Tory vote. This was not a big vote for the Lib Dems.

So, 9/10 on the night, but only 7/10 overall.

2. UKIP - The Daily Mailers just refuse to die. Clearly a terrific result, but not the breakthrough into Parliament that they need. They won't be able to repeat this in a general election, but they will be rightly delighted by this week. Cameron's offer of an in/out referendum seems, as I predicted, to have done nothing whatsoever to stop his UKIP problem. 9/10 - would be 10 but they didn't actually win.

3. Tories - an absolute disaster on every front. Being beaten by the Lib Dems would have been bad enough, but to lose to UKIP as well. Cameron is a dead man walking now. He may hang on, he may not, but he's the second coming of John Major. 3/10 at best.

4. Labour - a really interesting night for them. On the face of it disappointing, although they did slightly increase their share of the vote. Noone expected them to do well, and they didn't. But they do seem to have enjoyed themselves in the campaign and perhaps they've planted a seed for the local party to grow a little. Also, and this is the kicker, Labour need a fairly strong Lib Dem vote to hold off the Tories. If the Lib Dems collapse and half their vote moves to Labour, the Tories win the general election. 5/10 on the night, but not a bad week overall. A few papers have picked up on the result, but Ed's M and B won't be overly upset this weekend.

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