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gingerjon

Farage poles the electorate

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Well, it's start. Scottish ethnicity? In 2013?

 

Coherence? Meaning? In 2013?

Madness I tell you!

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Two little facts doing the rounds: Ukip didn't take a single seat from Labour & Labour now has control of more councils than at any point since 2002.

Oh, and Labour already have a consistent polling % that would give them a majority in the next general election.

I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.

 

Fine,  But sine when have facts had any bearing on politics. I'm sure more or less everyone  but Nigel agrees that come the general election UKIP will be wiped out. But for the moment they have the headlines..amd next year Its the European Parliament election isn't it?

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A vote for the party that dares talk about some of the awkward subjects the others skirt around

But that's ######.

They actually spend their time talking about how other parties won't let them talk about awkward subjects.

They are not a serious bunch of people. They are fools. They *like* being annoyed so they construct reasons to get annoyed.

It's just like that old nonsense about local councils replacing Christmas with "Winterval". It never happened, but a certain class of idiot really wants it to have happened so they can indulge their own strange desire for indignation.

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I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.

The pundits that make up the public face of the "Westminster elite" are generally wrong about everything. It's because they talk into an echo chamber.

Which reminds me, must get round to reading "The Signal and the Noise".

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The pundits that make up the public face of the "Westminster elite" are generally wrong about everything. It's because they talk into an echo chamber.

That much is true.

Again, I think the more telling story is how few people actually voted and how that is masked again by talking party percentages. Round here there was a drop in turnout from 44% to 30%. Where I can find figures they seem to be showing a similar fall. To me that says far more about the relevance of each one of the parties, even those led by soaks from Dulwich College, than anything else.

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Radio Five Live this morning. A right wing former Tory battle axe put he finger on it when she said that the UKIP "success" - (however many, however few, however right, however wrong, whetever teh percentages, whatever teh number of seats , whatever) was basically about Farage connecting with voters about

 

1. Smoking  (quite a few comments from people saying at least Farage isn't afraid to smoke)

2. Foreign aid

3. Immigration

4. EU

5. Duncan Smith and the Lib Dems comments about bus passes and winter fuel allowance

5. The Westminster elite of professional 

 

The performances of both Theresa may and Angela Eagle on TV this morning will have done nothing to convince UKIP voters that the Tories or Labour have grasped the iissues

 

Of course, if Camer-band hold their line, the UKIP threat may well recede, just as it might if their only resource Farage goes down with a bout of flu...lust like the SNP foundered when Salmond quit some years ago,. UKIP is not so much a single issue party as a single person party.

 

BUT: these were only County Council elections. Ar ethere any unitary authority and other elections next May? When are the Euro elections?  So as well as fading away there are also opportunities for UKIP to get more representation...which is OK my me if it prompts the other parties to up their game, but not if it prompts a knee jerk move to the right.

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Radio Five Live this morning. A right wing former Tory battle axe put he finger on it when she said that the UKIP "success" - (however many, however few, however right, however wrong, whetever teh percentages, whatever teh number of seats , whatever) was basically about Farage connecting with voters about

 

1. Smoking  (quite a few comments from people saying at least Farage isn't afraid to smoke)

2. Foreign aid

3. Immigration

4. EU

5. Duncan Smith and the Lib Dems comments about bus passes and winter fuel allowance

5. The Westminster elite of professional 

 

The performances of both Theresa may and Angela Eagle on TV this morning will have done nothing to convince UKIP voters that the Tories or Labour have grasped the iissues

 

Of course, if Camer-band hold their line, the UKIP threat may well recede, just as it might if their only resource Farage goes down with a bout of flu...lust like the SNP foundered when Salmond quit some years ago,. UKIP is not so much a single issue party as a single person party.

 

BUT: these were only County Council elections. Ar ethere any unitary authority and other elections next May? When are the Euro elections?  So as well as fading away there are also opportunities for UKIP to get more representation...which is OK my me if it prompts the other parties to up their game, but not if it prompts a knee jerk move to the right.

Debating with Ukip is like debating with a conspiracy theorist. Shut down one point and they'll go off and get angry about something else. The other parties, rightly or wrongly, will do better by not engaging with them and just letting them turn as purple as their rosettes.

2014 might be interesting. As well as nationwide European elections we have these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014.

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In our nearest town Boston, UKIP have won 5 out of the 7 county council seats.  Boston has a high number of East European immigrants - something like 15% or more of the population. The locals don't like them, this and the previous govt has not allocated any more resource to Boston  to cope with the influx, there is alleged to be a significant problem with drinking etc and so on and so on.

It also has quite low unemployment, which is interesting. You can quickly find a list of unemployment by constituency and Boston and Skegness is about a third of the way down, alongside places like Stoke and Swansea. There are 2,700 people unemployed in Boston.

That suggests a couple of things to me.

Firstly, if all the immigrants went home, there would be a massive labour shortage in the area as there are not enough unemployed people to replace them. The common view of Boston as a town full of lazy natives standing by as hard working immigrants take their jobs is untrue.

Secondly, the problem is likely to be in the quality of jobs available. It is easy to live on a pittance in a shared flat if you're a 23 year old bloke living away from home with 5 friends. It's not so easy if you're trying to support a family and buy a house.

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They are not a serious bunch of people. They are fools. They *like* being annoyed so they construct reasons to get annoyed.

Speaking of which, I understand from Twitter that "Mad" Melanie Phillips (columnist in the Daily Mail, frequent guest on BBC flagship show Question Time and regular contributor to the BBC radio show Moral Maze) has been heard complaining (in the national media natch) that the liberal bias in the media prevents people with her political views having a voice.

UKIP pull the same trick. Forever banging on, in the national media, about how the national media ignores them.

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Again, I think the more telling story is how few people actually voted and how that is masked again by talking party percentages. Round here there was a drop in turnout from 44% to 30%. Where I can find figures they seem to be showing a similar fall. To me that says far more about the relevance of each one of the parties, even those led by soaks from Dulwich College, than anything else.

I've long thought this. I wish people would report the vote shares as a proportion of the electorate, not as a proportion of the vote.

I think there are real electoral, and hence political, gains to be made by getting non-voters to vote. You wouldn't need to get many of them out to construct a landslide in a general election. I firmly believe that the first of the two big parties to understand this and act on it well will win an election in a 1997 style. You wouldn't need to convert that many non-voters to do it.

The problem is that it's an easy thing to say and a very difficult thing to do. Non-voters are a difficult bunch to enthuse.

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Debating with Ukip is like debating with a conspiracy theorist. Shut down one point and they'll go off and get angry about something else. The other parties, rightly or wrongly, will do better by not engaging with them and just letting them turn as purple as their rosettes.

2014 might be interesting. As well as nationwide European elections we have these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014.

 

Re your first paragraph. I tend to agree that the other parties should not engage with UKIP. They really do, however, need to wake up and engage with the electorate or UKIP will engage with them instead (sort of what's happening right now). To engage with the electorate, they have to address issues that matter to the electorate, not issues that matter to their friends and hangers on, and that means addressing issues that UKIP has put on the agenda, whether you like to discuss those issues or not or whether you think UKIP is just plain wrong.

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It also has quite low unemployment, which is interesting. You can quickly find a list of unemployment by constituency and Boston and Skegness is about a third of the way down, alongside places like Stoke and Swansea. There are 2,700 people unemployed in Boston.

 

 

I have no knowledge of this, but I suspect that there is a high fluctuation in the unemployment figures in Lincolnshire. Much of the economy is derived from agriculture and tourism. Immigrants will easily find employment in the summer but are they claiming benefits all the winter.

 

The one programme that I saw about this situation in that area ( Cambridgeshire / Lincolnshire) was actually to deal with the unavailability of locals to obtain council houses. This is because the immigrants are bringing their families over and are given priority over local young couples because they have brought children with them.

 

The trouble is that the political party "machines" have lost touch with real people and just look at statistics, not human situations. People who vote UKIP in Lincolnshire vote for what they feel, and statistics from a Labour/Tory/SDP party policy wonk won't deter them.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2264799/Our-towns-like-foreign-country-Locals-cope-immigrants-says-mother-TV-clash-academic.html

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One thing i am 100% certain on here UKIP will clean up in the european elections and give ALL 3 champagne socialist parties a jolly good stuffing :))))

Westminster has become like France a place full of professional politicians who have lost touch with the common man Nigel Farage knows this and jolly good luck to him:)

Many of my french friends certainly wish they had someone like him in french politics (Sure they have the FN however ther are extreme) those that accuse UKIP of being racist are IMHO way out of order and are just part of the cosy establishment with nothing but self interest at heart.

UKIP are the first party in a generation who have managed to connect with people right across the political spectrum:)))

CM

Ukip got the votes of just under 7.5% of the electorate.

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Radio Five Live this morning. A right wing former Tory battle axe put he finger on it when she said that the UKIP "success" -  was basically about Farage connecting with voters about

 

 

UKIP are the first party in a generation who have managed to connect with people right across the political spectrum:)))

 

 

I am not political so can't name too many names, but several weeks ago on, I think it was on 'newsnight', a studio of politicians were discussing various political matters.  Nigel Farage joined them in a link from outside a pub.  The presenter asked him what he was doing and he said he was out and about asking what the public what they think on certain matters.  He was then taken to task by the Tory and Labour studio guest who basically said you don't find out what the public wants by asking them.  Give Farage his due, and no, I didn't vote Ukip this Thursday, he absolutely demolished both these 'profesional politicians', showing them up for what they were, self opinionated and totally out of touch with voters.  

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YES i hate DULWICH COLLEGE used to be our grudge match at Rugby and Cricket:)))

CM

We probably used to beat you regularly you oik  :P

Pueri Alleynienses

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I am not political so can't name too many names, but several weeks ago on, I think it was on 'newsnight', a studio of politicians were discussing various political matters.  Nigel Farage joined them in a link from outside a pub.  The presenter asked him what he was doing and he said he was out and about asking what the public what they think on certain matters.  He was then taken to task by the Tory and Labour studio guest who basically said you don't find out what the public wants by asking them.  Give Farage his due, and no, I didn't vote Ukip this Thursday, he absolutely demolished both these 'profesional politicians', showing them up for what they were, self opinionated and totally out of touch with voters.

Farage is a professional politician. What else would you call someone who has trousered £2m+ as an MEP?

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Farage is a professional politician. What else would you call someone who has trousered £2m+ as an MEP?

I can think of lots of things to call him, sadly most of them would leave TRL open to legal action if I did it on here 

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Maybe at Cricket but i am certain you lot did not play rugger from memory you played ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL old boy:)

CM

Have you got them muddled up with Dulwich Hamlet?

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It also has quite low unemployment, which is interesting. You can quickly find a list of unemployment by constituency and Boston and Skegness is about a third of the way down, alongside places like Stoke and Swansea. There are 2,700 people unemployed in Boston. Employment in Boston is to some extent seasonal, employment in Skegness is highly seasonal 

That suggests a couple of things to me.

Firstly, if all the immigrants went home, there would be a massive labour shortage in the area as there are not enough unemployed people to replace them. True

 

The common view of Boston as a town full of lazy natives standing by as hard working immigrants take their jobs is untrue. Not quite true according to a fair  number of people I know who live, work and own businesses in the area

Secondly, the problem is likely to be in the quality of jobs available. It is easy to live on a pittance in a shared flat if you're a 23 year old bloke living away from home with 5 friends. It's not so easy if you're trying to support a family and buy a house.  True, though the East Europeans who work in the fields and packouses are generally not on a pittance, generally getting well above the minimum wage and also working long hours. Many of them bring their families with them which has put pressure on local schools.

 

see what the locals say here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22397176

 

the problem is, its perceptions that decide the way that quite a lot people vote, not facts, and once a perception becomes fixed as it were, its very difficult for the established parties to change that perception. In my opinion, it doesn't matter how often anyone repeats the stats and %, the perception among these Boston voters remains as it is.

 

as an example, this makes interesting reading http://www.research-lincs.org.uk/UI/Documents/Lincolnshire%20EQD.pdf

 

In any event, there must be a reason why out of the seven CC seats up for grabs in the Boston area, five went to UKIP.and they only lost the other two by a hundred or so votes

 

If Farage was taken ill, the party would collapse. However, if the current situation elicits a sensible response from  govt and opposition, it will have done some good. However, having seen both May and Eagle on TV this morning, the signs are not good.

 

Disclaimer: I do not support UKIP, its policies or its people but I do support the right of everyone to express their intentions through the ballot box.

 

 

The best response in my view is for all parties to mount an initiative to vastly increase turnout, but after the expenses scandal, the oppositions abysmal performance, matched only by Cameron's inability or unwillingness to cut his right wing adrift, they are going to have to try very very very hard!

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No its a public school that plays association football:)

CM

Perhaps you should mention that to Nick Easter and Andrew Sheridan.

 

I suspect you are confusing Dulwich College with Alleyns School.

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Two little facts doing the rounds: Ukip didn't take a single seat from Labour & Labour now has control of more councils than at any point since 2002.

Oh, and Labour already have a consistent polling % that would give them a majority in the next general election.

I've no love for Labour but it seems the 'Westminster elite' that they represent can just let Ukip get on with it.

 

And UKIP got just 2 seats in the north (out of 433), both in Yorkshire, in Harrogate and Filey. Now, I don't have any detailed demographic info in front of me but they don't strike me as areas suffering extreme hardship or teeming with ethnic tensions. I seem to remember the BNP 'breakthrough' started in a village just outside Burnley, not an area that was particularly diverse - is it somehow the case that fear of the 'other' is greater when they live in someone else's community?

Labour does have a consistent lead in the polls (although it has been gradually falling) but it is not nearly enough at this stage in the parliament. The Tories are up against it with both the boundary revision debacle and UKIP potentially splitting the right-wing vote. The Lib-Dems are going to suffer at the next election, although not as badly as some think, and, despite the success in the shires and probable success in the European elections, UKIP will win nothing in 2015.

So, who is going to be in a position to form the next government?

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So, who is going to be in a position to form the next government?

 

 

Not Clegg; whatever his party does, he's toast.

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And UKIP got just 2 seats in the north (out of 433), both in Yorkshire, in Harrogate and Filey. Now, I don't have any detailed demographic info in front of me but they don't strike me as areas suffering extreme hardship or teeming with ethnic tensions. I seem to remember the BNP 'breakthrough' started in a village just outside Burnley, not an area that was particularly diverse - is it somehow the case that fear of the 'other' is greater when they live in someone else's community?

Wrong, the BNP breakthrough happened in the Isle of Dogs in East London and it's inaccurate to describe a village outside Burnley as not being part of the Burnley community. For all intents and purposes a village near a town is pretty much a suburb.

 

The Filey result probably has very little to do with migration but bear in mind that half of Harrogate's population do not come from Harrogate (or indeed North Yorkshire). Very many residents of Harrogate come from West Yorkshire originally.

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