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Bearman

Lies, damned lies and statistics

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Sky Sports ( and Phil Clarke) are big on showing how the statistics don't lie in games.

In one of yesterday's games the statistics were

Breaks

Team A 9 Team B 6

Offloads

Team A 9 Team B 17

Penalties

Team A 6 Team B 6

Errors

Team A 15 Team B 10

Completion Rate (%)

Team A 73 Team B 79

On this basis team A had the most breaks,

Team B had the most offloads, the fewest errors and the better completion rate

Penalties were even.

So on those statistics team B must have been better than team A

Final Score was................

Team A 46 Team B 6

( Wigan v Salford)

Who said statistics don't lie?

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Need far more than the 5 sets if stats they show on Sky to get a good picture... like metres gained and tackle success rate!

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and points scored. I think that may be an important one, too.

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Phil Clarke talks through his a*se

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So why not put yourself up for the post?

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I like Phil Clarke and I admire the fact he's trying to do different stuff, but I'm not really very keen on his stats at the moment and it doesn't add anything for me when I'm watching.

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So why not put yourself up for the post?

 

Whats the wages like? I can talk boll*cks but at least I understand statistics and probability.

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Sky Sports ( and Phil Clarke) are big on showing how the statistics don't lie in games.

In one of yesterday's games the statistics were

Breaks

Team A 9 Team B 6

Offloads

Team A 9 Team B 17

Penalties

Team A 6 Team B 6

Errors

Team A 15 Team B 10

Completion Rate (%)

Team A 73 Team B 79

On this basis team A had the most breaks,

Team B had the most offloads, the fewest errors and the better completion rate

Penalties were even.

So on those statistics team B must have been better than team A

Final Score was................

Team A 46 Team B 6

( Wigan v Salford)

Who said statistics don't lie?

I was at the game on Friday night and it is true Salford did make a lot of offloads BUT most of the time they were along way from the tryline at were at best an annoyance to Wigan rather than a threat.

I too deal with statistics and my favorite saying is what do you want the answer to be as statistics can always be slanted to a particular question.

Any statistic taken in isolation can be misleading.

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Whats the wages like? I can talk boll*cks but at least I understand statistics and probability.

You'll understand then that without Clarke's knowledge, training, experience and playing record, your chances are zero.

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and points scored. I think that may be an important one, too.

The score is the only statistic that counts!

And even that, on occasion, is not a fair reflection of the game either...!

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It is when we win!

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The important stats not included are % possession, metres made, number of carries and no of tackles/missed tackles. I bet Wigans stats for each if those is higher except for tackles.

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I was at the game on Friday night and it is true Salford did make a lot of offloads BUT most of the time they were along way from the tryline at were at best an annoyance to Wigan rather than a threat.

I too deal with statistics and my favorite saying is what do you want the answer to be as statistics can always be slanted to a particular question.

Any statistic taken in isolation can be misleading.

 

Including individual games. Statistics are not invalidated when one example doesn't follow the pattern.

 

A clear majority of games are won by clubs that win on the statistics too. If you're making better yards than the opposition, completing more sets and playing at the right end of the field then you are giving yourself a much better chance of winning the game. There's no conspiracy in it.

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speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

 

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

 

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D

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speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D

its pretty much still there but repackaged.

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speaking of statistics, whatever happened to Phil Clarkes all singing and all dancing final score predictor? It was a shambles.

 

Was that the shortest lived waste of money we have seen in RL?

 

I think it was and remain so for all of time..... unless Featherstone Rovers are given a SL licence of course :D

 

Its still there, they just dont make a song and dance about it now. Its used now in the way it should have been last year, as a side note to show how each team are doing, not some kind of mystic meg!

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I loved the audacity of them to deem the margin metre a success when it merely adjusted it's score depending on the flow and scores in the game.

 

Hell I can be a pretty good score predictor 5 minutes from full time after I have changed my opinion 6 times. In fact it was so terrible it was laughable :lol:  

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Its still there, they just dont make a song and dance about it now. Its used now in the way it should have been last year, as a side note to show how each team are doing, not some kind of mystic meg!

 ok, I have never noticed it this year. as long as it isnt predicting FT scores any more then perhaps it does have merit

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 ok, I have never noticed it this year. as long as it isnt predicting FT scores any more then perhaps it does have merit

It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.

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It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.

 

I know in the Bradford Leeds game on Friday, Bradford were (i think) 16 points behind and all the stats etc suggested that they should have been about 10 points behind. Phil Clarke mentioned it but no big deal was made.

 

If used as a talking point it can be a good addition, showing that a team may not have been taking advantage of a shift in possession or momentum etc, or that a teams defence is doing very well when the stats suggest that the opposition should be closer to them than the scoreline suggests etc.

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Feel I've got to stand up for statistics here. I find Phil Clarke's stats stuff fascinating and for me it adds a new dimension providing a deeper understanding of what is going on in the game.

 

Statistics never lie, they are just numbers. As stated in other posts it is the inferences that you draw from them that can be incorrect.

 

Statistics underpin many scientific and engineering disciplines - for example, statistical techniques were used in the detection of the Higg's particle at Cern.

 

In the Wigan Salford game the statistics quoted did not include tackle counts, tackles missed and metres gained, which I think would probably have painted a different picture. The statistics quoted were too selective to provide a good overall picture of the game.

 

And the other thing as stated above the quoted game is just one example. Statistics is based on the mathematics of probability and as such you always have a chance of metaphorically rolling double six. I am sure there are occasions when all the statistics might point to one team winning and they do lose.

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Feel I've got to stand up for statistics here. I find Phil Clarke's stats stuff fascinating and for me it adds a new dimension providing a deeper understanding of what is going on in the game.

 

Statistics never lie, they are just numbers. As stated in other posts it is the inferences that you draw from them that can be incorrect.

 

Statistics underpin many scientific and engineering disciplines - for example, statistical techniques were used in the detection of the Higg's particle at Cern.

 

In the Wigan Salford game the statistics quoted did not include tackle counts, tackles missed and metres gained, which I think would probably have painted a different picture. The statistics quoted were too selective to provide a good overall picture of the game.

 

And the other thing as stated above the quoted game is just one example. Statistics is based on the mathematics of probability and as such you always have a chance of metaphorically rolling double six. I am sure there are occasions when all the statistics might point to one team winning and they do lose.

:D You haven't even bothered with a pseudonym Clarkey! ;)

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It is part of the KPI tracker (the traffic light thing) that they have in the bottom left a few times.

 

The way it is packaged is much better these days as has been said. Now he will highlight that based on the stats a team should be x points ahead, and it is interesting when the score is very different, although tbh it rarely is.

 

 

 

And that's the issue - KPI (key performance indicators) are management speak and a wonderful tool for those people who don't really understand what's going on. PC is a good bloke but does have an over-inflated impression of his own intellect and insight, hence his willingness to use KPIs.

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