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Tories Europe Implode

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Looks like the Tories are about to once again implode over Europe.

 

Cameron is not right wing enough for the bonkers Tory right, his days may be numbered.

 

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Well he has not only to contend with the Bonker's Tory right who are looking across at UKIP and thinking they should be us

Looks like the Tories are about to once again implode over Europe.

 

Cameron is not right wing enough for the bonkers Tory right, his days may be numbered.

 

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Seems certain Cabinet members have little confidence in Cameron's ability to lead them to GE victory in 2015 and are positioning themselves for a leadership challenge. Who's the stalking horse going to be? Peter Bone seemed very keen to speak to the media today.

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I said yesterday via the medium of 140 characters that Cameron has to face down the Eurosceptics/loony right in the same way and with the same determination that Kinnock took down Militant. It doesn't really matter what the 'issue' itself is.

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We never seem to be able to get the straight story on Europe. Lawson (and Howe) resigned over Thatcher's anti Europe attitude. Now it seems he wants us to come out.  Those who are pro Europe say it would cost us 3million jobs if we came out.  Those who are anti say this would be compensated by the extra exports we'd gain from being outside the EC.  All that seems to concern the likes of Lawson are the effects further regulatiion will have on financial services. Given that financial services are responsible for the mess we're in wouldn't it be a good idea to have more regulation?

From my fairly left of centre view the right want us out so that they can dispense with much of the labour laws brought in by the EC. After all one of their number has advocated "no fault dismissal". 

Those who want withdrawal also seem to want an end to the Europe wide arrest warrant. TBH I can't see the objection to this.  They've just caught an escaped armed robber in Spain presumably due to said arrest warrant.

But there is no one to give us a proper steer on this matter. The press generally are anti Europe and are quick to stir up straight banana regulations, a return to imperial measures, and anti European Court of Rights stories. 

Are there equally anti Europe sympathies in France? Spain? Italt, Germany, or are they committed to the European project.

One thing is sure, you can't have a single market without laws ensuring a level playing field. Should we come out I've no doubt that the  subsidies that to my certain knowledge the Italians provided to their manufacturing companies for exports to the UK would be back in spades!

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Both Tory and Labour leaderships operate as private clubs where the gravy train is funded by external parties. Now both clubs are panicking because 50% of their funders have views that run totally against those of the club committee.

 

Cue panic and complete obfuscation in media releases.

 

 

Squeaky bum time already for Cameron. Miliband's got it to come.

 

My prediction, for what it's worth:

Cameron will switch policy; Miliband won't.

 

Tories win the next General Election.

 

Miliband bleats that  'it's just not fair'

 

Labour Party says 'Sorry Ed, but this just isn't working any more'

 

Miliband gets a gig as a Guardian journalist and sits in the House of Lords as Lord Miliband of Highgate. He always sits next to Lord Clegg of Primrose Hill.

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I said yesterday via the medium of 140 characters that Cameron has to face down the Eurosceptics/loony right in the same way and with the same determination that Kinnock took down Militant. It doesn't really matter what the 'issue' itself is.

I agree with that and trust it will happen.

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I said yesterday via the medium of 140 characters that Cameron has to face down the Eurosceptics/loony right in the same way and with the same determination that Kinnock took down Militant. It doesn't really matter what the 'issue' itself is.

The first problem with that is the press. When Kinnock took on Militant he had the support and encouragement of both the Labour-supporting media who recognised the need to de-contaminate and the Tory press who hated the lefties. But neither of those groups have any interest in Cameron defeating his lunatic fringe - Labour press because the nutters make the Conservatives less electable, the Tory press because it's the nutters who buy their papers.

 

The second problem is that Cameron has neither the tools nor the guts to take them on. He's never had to fight for anything in his life, and I don't see him starting now.

 

It's far more likely that he'll bend to their demands and the Tories will drift off to the right.

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Interesting exchange between George Galloway and David Mitchell on C4 last week that went along the lines of Galloway saying that the main parties don't have any real principles with Mitchell countering that getting elected meant bending to the will of the people who are electing you - which is one of the many reasons why Gorgeous George will never be PM.

I do have some sympathy with Galloway's point here (which is slightly disconcerting) in that simply reacting to people voting for UKIP by going all anti-EU will ultimately make you look weak. Which Cameron, Clegg and Milliband all seem to be. I don't want Labour "reaching out" to UKIP voters. And that's not just because I hate the phrase "reaching out". I don't like the Tories and admit to enjoying their regular implosions on Europe, but this is a serious matter and I don't think we're getting a sensible balanced argument from anyone.

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It's an thing that normally people don't like intolerant know-it-alls with fixed opinions, however, that's who we vote for (only fixed opinions that never change get called "principles").

 

I suppose we like to know that when we vote for Mr X that he will deliver his stated opinions. We don't want to vote for an Eurosceptic and then suddenly find out that they vote along pro-EU lines.

 

However, any leadership position in any industry will require position shifts because things change.

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LETS HAVE THE REFERENDUM NOW NOT 5 YEARS DOWN THE LINE:)))

CM

Check your diary... you're a bit early.

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Anyone here think its a bit ironic that Cameron is in the US pushing for a EU/US trade deal while a good deal of his own cabinet want out of said grouping. 

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Anyone here think its a bit ironic that Cameron is in the US pushing for a EU/US trade deal while a good deal of his own cabinet want out of said grouping. 

 

And I suspect Obama will be telling Cameron just how far he can go on re-negotiations with the EU.

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We had the UKIP wannabe councillor round knocking on doors canvassing* just before the recent election and I was in a fairly awkward mood so I asked him to give me an example or two of what the EU had done to us that was so bad.  I had hoped he could give one or two good examples, they do exist.  He started with "interfering with our rights to deport criminals like Abu Qatada", unfortunately that's the ECHR which is nothing to do with the EU.  He then told me that I was wrong and l should go check my facts.  That was a good point to say "goodbye" and shut the door on him.

 

The problem Cameron has, and I'm sure his electoral advisers are telling him this daily, is that it's the middle ground that wins elections.  Enthuse them and you win regardless of what those at the less central positions think.  Blair did it magnificently in 1997 and 2001, Cameron failed to do this and barely scraped through into a coalition against a very unconvincing and widely ridiculed PM in Brown.  The even bigger problem is that Miliband is just as unconvincing as Brown and isn't enthusing the middle ground.  The Lib Dems are about as electable as herpes and have absolutely no clue how to sell their Europhile stance.

 

In 1997, Blair had a whole raft of massive policies to bring in from fixing the NHS to minimum wage, all sold with brutal efficiency to the middle ground.  People were voting FOR something.  Cameron, Clegg, Miliband and Farage are all hiding their lack of any inspiring policies** behind campaigning AGAINST things.  (Clegg is just an annoying squeak just now so he's just against what Mumsnet tells him to be against hoping that someone out there still has an "I'm with Nick" t-shirt)

 

* to be fair to him, he was the only one who bothered.

** would it be more accurate to delete the word "inspiring"?

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We had the UKIP wannabe councillor round knocking on doors canvassing* just before the recent election and I was in a fairly awkward mood so I asked him to give me an example or two of what the EU had done to us that was so bad.  I had hoped he could give one or two good examples, they do exist.  He started with "interfering with our rights to deport criminals like Abu Qatada", unfortunately that's the ECHR which is nothing to do with the EU.  He then told me that I was wrong and l should go check my facts.  That was a good point to say "goodbye" and shut the door on him.

 

The problem Cameron has, and I'm sure his electoral advisers are telling him this daily, is that it's the middle ground that wins elections.  Enthuse them and you win regardless of what those at the less central positions think.  Blair did it magnificently in 1997 and 2001, Cameron failed to do this and barely scraped through into a coalition against a very unconvincing and widely ridiculed PM in Brown.  The even bigger problem is that Miliband is just as unconvincing as Brown and isn't enthusing the middle ground.  The Lib Dems are about as electable as herpes and have absolutely no clue how to sell their Europhile stance.

 

In 1997, Blair had a whole raft of massive policies to bring in from fixing the NHS to minimum wage, all sold with brutal efficiency to the middle ground.  People were voting FOR something.  Cameron, Clegg, Miliband and Farage are all hiding their lack of any inspiring policies** behind campaigning AGAINST things.  (Clegg is just an annoying squeak just now so he's just against what Mumsnet tells him to be against hoping that someone out there still has an "I'm with Nick" t-shirt)

 

* to be fair to him, he was the only one who bothered.

** would it be more accurate to delete the word "inspiring"?

 

It's true that Blair had a raft of policies. It's also true that in his first term he hardly activated any of them, being content to stick with the Tories' spending plans - especially on the health service. 

I think people do vote against things rather than for them. Major got in in 1992 because the majority of the Tory heartlands thought he'd bring the good times back. What he brought was Black Wednesday, 15% interest rates and negative equity.  There was a lot of anger in Southern England in the early nineties.  The recession, instead of being confined to the North of England, Scotland and Wales as recessions previously had been,  also hit the South. In 1997 they took their revenge on Major and it was a terrible revenge. Major's problem was he was clearing up the mess made by the Blessed Margaret, but of course he couldn't say so!

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And I suspect Obama will be telling Cameron just how far he can go on re-negotiations with the EU.

 

He can do but his central point was "Do this and you will lose influence in Washington" - and yet he can't bring himself to adopt the British view on the Falklands. What influence does anyone imagine that we have in the US anyway?

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The loony right are just loony politicians. They get a significant concession with Cameron publishing the bill - albeit then not putting it forward but anyone could - and instead of shutting up and trying to see how on earth Labour and the Lib Dems can repond they shriek all the louder.

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What I don't understand (forgive me if I seem thick) is why?  What do they hope to gain? (the right that is)  Why are they so anti EU. It was after all a Tory government who first proposed membership of the (then) EEC and years later a Tory government who took us into the EEC.  It was a Tory government who signed the single European act.  It was a Tory government who boasted about having defeated communism in Eastern Europe and got the Eastern Eurpeans to become members of the club.  They pointed to these facts as their achievements.  Now we have to live with these achievements they don't seem to like them much any more.  Do these people on the Tory right genuinely believe that the majority of people in this country would be better off if we pulled out of the EU or is it just a matter of the "city" wanting less inferference with them making as much money as possibly out - erm - money?

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 Do these people on the Tory right genuinely believe that the majority of people in this country would be better off if we pulled out of the EU or is it just a matter of the "city" wanting less inferference with them making as much money as possibly out - erm - money?

 

 

The Germans, in particular, are apparently extremely jealous of London's pre-eminence in the global markets for sharedealing and insurance.

 

Somewhere in a smoky room they and the French will be cooking up a scheme to "make it fairer" for all EU countries to have access to these financial sectors. You can bet your life they'll try to introduce quotas.

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The Germans, in particular, are apparently extremely jealous of London's pre-eminence in the global markets for sharedealing and insurance.

 

Somewhere in a smoky room they and the French will be cooking up a scheme to "make it fairer" for all EU countries to have access to these financial sectors. You can bet your life they'll try to introduce quotas.

 

TBH I reckon we'd all be very sorry afterwards.  There are a lot of benefits from being in the EU.  But the biggest is that we have a say in what they decide. Once on the outside we'll lose that say but we'll still have to abide by their regulations if we want to trade with them. Plus of course in trade with the rest of the world we benefit from any benefits the EU can negotiate for us.  We are a small insignifcant island off the North West coast of Europe globally we'd have no influence at all once outside the EU.  All this talk of conspiracy by the Germans and French to "do us down" is the basis of the arguments. Bascially those who want us out want to be free to make as much money as possible out of moneyfor themselves. But the rest of us will be up creek without a paddle.  But they don't care about that - they never have and they never will.

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TBH I reckon we'd all be very sorry afterwards.  There are a lot of benefits from being in the EU.  But the biggest is that we have a say in what they decide. Once on the outside we'll lose that say but we'll still have to abide by their regulations if we want to trade with them. Plus of course in trade with the rest of the world we benefit from any benefits the EU can negotiate for us.  We are a small insignifcant island off the North West coast of Europe globally we'd have no influence at all once outside the EU.  All this talk of conspiracy by the Germans and French to "do us down" is the basis of the arguments. Bascially those who want us out want to be free to make as much money as possible out of moneyfor themselves. But the rest of us will be up ###### creek without a paddle.  But they don't care about that - they never have and they never will.

As a general rule I find that those who get worked up by 'Brussels' also get worked up by every other level of government or officialdom.

 

So they rant about everything from how eurocrats want to straighten our bananas to how the local council won't sort out the potholes properly.

 

Every so often, like a stopped clock telling the right time twice a day, their directionless rage hits a target.

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The loony right are just loony politicians. They get a significant concession with Cameron publishing the bill - albeit then not putting it forward but anyone could - and instead of shutting up and trying to see how on earth Labour and the Lib Dems can repond they shriek all the louder.

 

The right of the Tory Party aren't interested in what Labour or the Lib Dems think.  They believe in the purity of their position.  They believe that the only reason the Tories don't win every seat in Parliament is that they aren't ideologically pure enough

 

Cameron's mistake is to think he can ever get away with appeasing them.   He's wrong.  They need to be contained.  If they are even a chink of light they'll jump on it.  If he doesn't give them a referendum, they'll harp on about a referendum.  If he gives them a referendum, they'll campaign to win the referendum.   If they lose a referendum, they'll just regroup and start again.  They won't ever stop.

 

His second mistake is to be out of the country as this is all kicking off.  Tactically naive.  He'd be wise to lay off the foreign trips for a while.

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The problem Cameron has, and I'm sure his electoral advisers are telling him this daily, is that it's the middle ground that wins elections.  Enthuse them and you win regardless of what those at the less central positions think.  Blair did it magnificently in 1997 and 2001, Cameron failed to do this and barely scraped through into a coalition against a very unconvincing and widely ridiculed PM in Brown. 

 

This is taken to be an iron law of general elections, but I'm not sure it is true at the moment.

 

If any party can harness even a small proportion of the disillusioned non-voters they could win a surprise landslide from the left or right, leaving everyone else triangulating helplessly in the middle.

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As a general rule I find that those who get worked up by 'Brussels' also get worked up by every other level of government or officialdom.

 

So they rant about everything from how eurocrats want to straighten our bananas to how the local council won't sort out the potholes properly.

 

Every so often, like a stopped clock telling the right time twice a day, their directionless rage hits a target.

It must break your heart to admit that I'm right.

:D

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