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Bedford Roughyed

Cameron out of touch

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A lot of that is recognised in my comments about a rotting corpse Labour government...

I think with all three major parties having very similar policies and a strong focus on media presentation from all parties, a 40%+ share of the vote is exceptional rather than the norm. The next government, Labour or Tory, probably won't do much better than the current 36.1%. 

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I think with all three major parties having very similar policies and a strong focus on media presentation from all parties, a 40%+ share of the vote is exceptional rather than the norm. The next government, Labour or Tory, probably won't do much better than the current 36.1%. 

A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.

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A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.

If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.

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If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.

 

How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?

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How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?

Hence the quotations.

 

However everybody understands the concept of "wasted votes" so it's much quicker to type than go through a detailed explanation.

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Northern Sol, on 20 May 2013 - 16:50, said:

If you look at the break-down in their seats, they'd be the second party behind Labour if not for the Alternate Vote system. They greatly benefit from "wasted votes" creating a lot of "top up" seats. It's difficult to compare results when the voting system is different.

How can the votes be 'wasted' if someone is benefiting from them?

Phew! I'm struggling to think of a more misinformed post than the one you've responded to, but, hey-ho. There are very few 'wasted' votes in Scottish parliamentary elections, or, to put it more accurately, very few wasted opinions.

Firstly, we do not use the Alternate(Alternative?) Vote system, not in Holyrood nor in council elections.

In Holyrood there are two parts to the election. 73 of the seats are elected on a single-member constituency basis, using first-past-the-post - exactly the same as Westminster.

The vote share in this part was SNP 45.4%, Lab 31.7%, Con 13.9%, Lib Dem 7.9% (as this is part is cross-thread - UKIP 0.1% :) )

This resulted in the following seats: SNP 53, Lab 15, Con 3, Lib Dem 2 - a massive majority, and you can see why we didn't settle for just fptp!

The second part of the electoral system is the regional list system. The country is divided into regions and each party puts up a list of candidates in preference order. This enables the voter to use their constituency vote tactically, or to vote for an individual, but vote for the party of their choice in the regional. The count uses a D'Hondt method to allocate seats, and each allocation attempts to bring the proportion of seats into line with the vote for each party

The vote share in this part was SNP 44.0%, Lab 26.3%, Con 12.4%, Lib Dem 5.2%, Greens 4.4%, Independent 1.1% (UKIP 0.9)

Resulting in seats allocated SNP 16, Lab 22, Con 12, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Ind 1.

Total seats SNP 69, Lab 37, Con 15, Lib dem 5, Green 2, Ind 1.

So, in both sections, SNP got around about 44-45% of the vote - incredible in an established 4 party, almost 5 party environment - and got the majority that the system was designed to avoid.

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A cross-thread comment but that makes the SNP getting a majority government in Scotland in a proportional vote system all the more impressive.  They do have some rather distinctive policies compared to the other parties.

And, as the thread is about being 'in touch', I've just checked the profiles of the 8 member Scottish cabinet. All but one of them had earlier careers outside of politics. The one exception is Alex Neil. He was originally in the Labour Party, and worked for them as a researcher.

They all went to ordinary state comprehensive schools, followed by Scottish Universities.

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Phew! I'm struggling to think of a more misinformed post than the one you've responded to, but, hey-ho. There are very few 'wasted' votes in Scottish parliamentary elections, or, to put it more accurately, very few wasted opinions.

I'm aware of that, that's why I put quotations around the words wasted and vote. I also said that most of the SNP's seats came from the top-up. You'd think that these two facts would give you a general clue that I know how the AV system works in Scotland. 

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To be fair to loonies the argument that "There is no point beating the Tories if you have to become the Tories in order to do so" is a good one.

 

Very true.  But there's a world of difference between that view and wanting mass nationalisation of everything without compensation - an example of some of the policies put forward by the Militant Tendency in the Labour party branch of which I was a member.  I believe Labour should provide a radical alternative to the Tories. That's why I support Labour's stand against the mass welfare cuts, the the scapegoating of those on welfare as "skivers"  Sooner or later it will be proved that "scapegoating" is all it is. Let's not forget that it was the Tories who put "clause 28" into law in order to scapegoat a minority.

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I'm aware of that, that's why I put quotations around the words wasted and vote. I also said that most of the SNP's seats came from the top-up. You'd think that these two facts would give you a general clue that I know how the AV system works in Scotland. 

 

Reading Methven's post it seems that the SNP got 53 seats from FPTP and 16 via top up?

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I think there's another thing that Cameron, the senior Tories, Tory MPs and local swivel-eyed loons fail to recognise:  They did not win the last general election, they're only in power because they convinced the Lib Dems to join in with a coalition government.  The only conclusive outcome from the last election was that Labour lost it but no other party was convincing enough to persuade the public to vote for them to take the baton of power from the rotting corpse of the Brown government.

If they'd played nicely until the next election then they may have convinced enough neutrals that they could be trusted with sole power again but instead the toddlers have seized control of the car and are wildly driving to a massive car crash.

 Quite so. In my opinion, there are those MPs on the right, and in the Tory press who  have never forgiven Cameron from forging an alliance with the Lib Dems and are blindly doing everything that can to sabotage that alliance at every opportunity, conveniently forgetting that they are actually sabotaging the Govt...something that Labour should be doing but somehow can't.  They seem to forget that the alternative would have been a Lib-Lab coalition and personally I will never forgive the traitors if they do sabotage the Coalition. 

 

 I really think that Cameron now has an idea opportunity to sink UKIP by expelling the loonies Like Dorries and co, thus cleaning up the party and consigning UKIP to electoral oblivion at the next General Election. 

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And, as the thread is about being 'in touch', I've just checked the profiles of the 8 member Scottish cabinet. All but one of them had earlier careers outside of politics. The one exception is Alex Neil. He was originally in the Labour Party, and worked for them as a researcher.

They all went to ordinary state comprehensive schools, followed by Scottish Universities.

 

Does working as aggressive take-no-prisoners cutting-edge economist at  the RBS  count as a career outside politics?  :D

 

Or maybe  doing house conveyancing In Drumchapel? 

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 Quite so. In my opinion, there are those MPs on the right, and in the Tory press who  have never forgiven Cameron from forging an alliance with the Lib Dems and are blindly doing everything that can to sabotage that alliance at every opportunity, conveniently forgetting that they are actually sabotaging the Govt...something that Labour should be doing but somehow can't.  They seem to forget that the alternative would have been a Lib-Lab coalition and personally I will never forgive the traitors if they do sabotage the Coalition. 

 

 I really think that Cameron now has an idea opportunity to sink UKIP by expelling the loonies Like Dorries and co, thus cleaning up the party and consigning UKIP to electoral oblivion at the next General Election. 

 

Do you believe Cameron has the bottle or the authority to do the latter? To genuinely attempt to modernise his party, instead of just talking about it? I don't. He is the one who stoked the flames over Europe by promising a referendum in the first place, to try and appease the Euroloons in his party. By doing that he has just made them stronger and whatever he concedes to them, they will never be satisfied. He has allowed Dorries back into the fold so she can repeatedly stab him in the front instead of expelling her from the party. He is the one who staked his Tory modernisation project on equal marriage and then didn't have the courage to speak in its favour during the debate in Parliament yesterday. Pathetic example of leadership. Kinnock was a giant in comparison.

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Reading Methven's post it seems that the SNP got 53 seats from FPTP and 16 via top up?

Indeed I had remembered the results of the last election which led to a minority SNP government.

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Indeed I had remembered the results of the last election which led to a minority SNP government.

There was a TV interview a few years ago with Annabel Goldie, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives in the Scottish Parliament where she was very proud of the way the Scottish Parliament worked.  As 4th party in terms of members she was still able to get through some key policies because the parties all worked together to create a consensus of governance.  In return for getting some of their more sensible policies implemented, they agreed in principle to not unreasonably oppose sensible things put forward by the governing party.  She also highlighted a few policies where the Tories had suggested an amendment to SNP bills and the bills were amended because everyone else accepted them as sensible.  Even now as a majority of SNP the smaller parties still get things through regularly.

 

There's no way that would work in the UK Parliament, if you're not in the governing party (or parties) then you get nothing beyond the ability to rant in public in the House.  If Cameron stood up today and said it was Tuesday afternoon, you'd probably get at least one senior MP on the other side (or even his own) putting forward an amendment to recognise that it's Wednesday morning in some parts of the world.

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Do you believe Cameron has the bottle or the authority to do the latter? To genuinely attempt to modernise his party, instead of just talking about it? I don't. He is the one who stoked the flames over Europe by promising a referendum in the first place, to try and appease the Euroloons in his party. By doing that he has just made them stronger and whatever he concedes to them, they will never be satisfied. He has allowed Dorries back into the fold so she can repeatedly stab him in the front instead of expelling her from the party. He is the one who staked his Tory modernisation project on equal marriage and then didn't have the courage to speak in its favour during the debate in Parliament yesterday. Pathetic example of leadership. Kinnock was a giant in comparison.

Who in their right mind would want the job?  The most capable MP the Tories have is Hague but he's northern and bald so gets a hard time from even the Tory friendly press.  The other relatively good Tory MPs get massive media spinning from their own side to trash their credibility before they can become a threat.  Who needs an opposition to trash you when your own side will do it so effectively.

 

For some unknown reason in the English based press, the "all fur coat and no knickers" rabble rousers like Farage get a relatively easy ride of having nothing of substance behind them and a glass jaw when criticism is thrown at them.  They can throw mud very effectively at the Tories from behind that protection.

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Do you believe Cameron has the bottle or the authority to do the latter? To genuinely attempt to modernise his party, instead of just talking about it? I don't. He is the one who stoked the flames over Europe by promising a referendum in the first place, to try and appease the Euroloons in his party. By doing that he has just made them stronger and whatever he concedes to them, they will never be satisfied. He has allowed Dorries back into the fold so she can repeatedly stab him in the front instead of expelling her from the party. He is the one who staked his Tory modernisation project on equal marriage and then didn't have the courage to speak in its favour during the debate in Parliament yesterday. Pathetic example of leadership. Kinnock was a giant in comparison.

no, I don't... otherwise he'd have done it already.  Maybe it'll take Boris.

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no, I don't... otherwise he'd have done it already.  Maybe it'll take Boris.

 

If Boris Johnson is the answer, the question was wrong.   Behind that buffoon-like image is a buffoon.

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If Boris Johnson is the answer, the question was wrong.   Behind that buffoon-like image is a buffoon.

 

That's where you're wrong. Behind that affable buffoon like image is an extremely clever and razor sharp ambitious man.

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Actually, the more i think about it, it was inevitable that, eventually, Shadow would come round to my way of thinking.

 

It would save a lot of time if all the rest of you did the same.

 

 

;) ;)  :biggrin:

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Actually, the more i think about it, it was inevitable that, eventually, Shadow would come round to my way of thinking.

 

It would save a lot of time if all the rest of you did the same.

 

 

;) ;)  :biggrin:

 

I have seen the light.

:biggrin:

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Do you believe Cameron has the bottle or the authority to do the latter? To genuinely attempt to modernise his party, instead of just talking about it? I don't. He is the one who stoked the flames over Europe by promising a referendum in the first place, to try and appease the Euroloons in his party. By doing that he has just made them stronger and whatever he concedes to them, they will never be satisfied. He has allowed Dorries back into the fold so she can repeatedly stab him in the front instead of expelling her from the party. He is the one who staked his Tory modernisation project on equal marriage and then didn't have the courage to speak in its favour during the debate in Parliament yesterday. Pathetic example of leadership. Kinnock was a giant in comparison.

 

I don't believe Cameron has the bottle or authority to do anything. If he had he wouldn't be avoiding PMQ's like he is, I believe he's done one out of the past 12.  The PM always has the inside track at PMQ's and always has the last word. The Opposition leader is always on a loser because of this. Cameron had fun when he was Leader of the Opposition with Blair at the end of his time and with the unpopular Brown. And he had fun at Mlliband's expense too in the early days of his government, but now things are going #### up he's finding every reason possible to avoid his Wednesday date.  Really he ought to resign.  Hague is the best man they've got, but he is bald and the last bald man to win a General Election in the UK was Churchill in 1951.(and he was up against another bald man in Attlee)  BTW Northern Sol he didn't have a majority of the electorate behind him either.

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That's where you're wrong. Behind that affable buffoon like image is an extremely clever and razor sharp ambitious man.

 

Would someone clever and razor sharp actually want the leadership of the Tory party? In its current form, it appears unleadable.

 

Sure, Boris could probably showboat his way into No.10 on personality alone (a sad indictment of British politics, but that's where we are, let's face it) but what would happen next? Would he give the Euroloons what they wanted, and if not, could he survive their subsequent displeasure?

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