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archibald

No double dip

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So, the ONS, who now clearly can't be trusted and are in the pay of the Bullingdon Boys (copyright Kevin McGuire), have decided there wasn't any double dip and in fact the deepest recession since Christ knows when, presided over by Brown, Balls, Miliband(s) et al was actually worse than first thought.

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Doesnt seem to be a popular subject on here...

The ONS does what it does pretty well, independently produces statistics on a massive range of subjects, often with the caveat that they are to be reviewed when fuller data is available.

Of course, news doesnt wait, especially when its bad.

The 'double dip' became a catchy sound bite even though it was by no means clear that it happened. Today it was confirmed it didnt.

I wonder how much investment didnt happen, jobs wernt offered, money didnt get spent, how many millions of pounds worth of economic activity didnt happen etc by a public and business comunity all scared to death of the stupid expression 'double dip recession'

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Doesnt seem to be a popular subject on here...

The ONS does what it does pretty well, independently produces statistics on a massive range of subjects, often with the caveat that they are to be reviewed when fuller data is available.

Of course, news doesnt wait, especially when its bad.

The 'double dip' became a catchy sound bite even though it was by no means clear that it happened. Today it was confirmed it didnt.

I wonder how much investment didnt happen, jobs wernt offered, money didnt get spent, how many millions of pounds worth of economic activity didnt happen etc by a public and business comunity all scared to death of the stupid expression 'double dip recession'

Good shout

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Doesnt seem to be a popular subject on here...

The ONS does what it does pretty well, independently produces statistics on a massive range of subjects, often with the caveat that they are to be reviewed when fuller data is available.

Of course, news doesnt wait, especially when its bad.

The 'double dip' became a catchy sound bite even though it was by no means clear that it happened. Today it was confirmed it didnt.

I wonder how much investment didnt happen, jobs wernt offered, money didnt get spent, how many millions of pounds worth of economic activity didnt happen etc by a public and business comunity all scared to death of the stupid expression 'double dip recession'

 

The 'growth' figures are still horrendous and the outlook remains bleak as hell, whether or not it was a technical double dip or not. A statistical revision of 0.1% is hardly cause for popping the champagne corks.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10145392/No-double-dip-but-household-squeeze-hits-25-year-high.html

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Real household incomes have fallen by 1.7%  which to be honest does not seem to be very much.  Sure, costs are increasing but see here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21381921

 

Mortgage rates have halved in the last ten years and this reduction is not trivial.

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I thought it was actually an Official Triple Dip?

Discuss

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The 'growth' figures are still horrendous and the outlook remains bleak as hell, whether or not it was a technical double dip or not. A statistical revision of 0.1% is hardly cause for popping the champagne corks.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10145392/No-double-dip-but-household-squeeze-hits-25-year-high.html

 

Despite its reputation, the Maily Telegraph does occasionally come in useful and it has proved so today. When it was announced on the BBC news that the Q1 2012 had been revised from -0.1% to zero it did occur to me that 0%, rounded to the first decimal place, covers a range of growth of GDP from -0.4999% to +0.4999.

And, as ONS chief economist, Joe Grice, confirms, GDP at the end of Q1 2012 was lower than at the end of Q4 2011 - the second consecutive quarter of negative growth - hence, albeit technically and by a tiny margin, still a technical recession.

"

"Today ONS has revised the GDP growth figure for Quarter 1 2012. In rounded percentage terms, it has gone from minus 0.1pc to zero. It is a tiny change, but there is a danger false significance will be attached to it

...

 

"In fact, the pounds million figures also published today show that GDP was lower in Q1 2012 than in the preceding quarter – negative growth – albeit by an amount, £26m, which is insignificant in an economy producing round about £1.4 trillion a year."

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Yay! Everything's fine then.

 

  :danced::dancer:  :locomotive:  :yahoo:  :superman:  :dance:  :drinks:  :good::friends::party:

Anything but. The £1.2 trillion debt, or more importantly the annual interest wasted on servicing it instead of being spent on something useful, will cast a shadow over this generation and the next. Even the Labour front bench eventually realised this week that it needs addressing by another means than simply adding to it

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The 'growth' figures are still horrendous and the outlook remains bleak as hell, whether or not it was a technical double dip or not. A statistical revision of 0.1% is hardly cause for popping the champagne corks.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10145392/No-double-dip-but-household-squeeze-hits-25-year-high.html

Agreed but a rounding error has been interpreted by the media and politicians as catstrophe and given license to use the words 'double dip recession' which have cast a shadow which has further hindered the economy from recovering

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I thought it was actually an Official Triple Dip?

Discuss

Lets try it another way...

If Swintons last 8 results had been Lost, Lost, Won, Lost, Lost, Won, Lost, Lost then they would have had a triple dip recession

Alternatively, if all their last 8 results had all been losses they would only have had a single dip recession

Which would you prefer?

Which would sound like a news headline to a journalist who didnt quite understand point difference and win bonuses?

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Agreed but a rounding error has been interpreted by the media and politicians as catstrophe and given license to use the words 'double dip recession' which have cast a shadow which has further hindered the economy from recovering

 

Is a 0.1% revision any less of a catastrophe, regardless of the use of the term 'double dip'?

 

I think there are bigger forces at work hindering economic recovery than the use of mere words by the media. If only the cause were that trivial.

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I think there are bigger forces at work hindering economic recovery than the use of mere words by the media. If only the cause were that trivial.

Like what?

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Like what?

 

George Osborne.

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George Osborne.

Ah, which of his actions in particular have kept us from not actually falling into recession?

 

This is the more likely explanation, but admittedly a lot less "waaah, the Tories eat children"

 

 
European June economic confidence improves more than forecast
Economic confidence in the eurozone improved by more than economists had forecast in June, adding to indications that the 17-nation economy is beginning to recover from the longest recession since the debut of the common currency

 

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Agreed but a rounding error has been interpreted by the media and politicians as catstrophe and given license to use the words 'double dip recession' which have cast a shadow which has further hindered the economy from recovering

Totally agree.

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The 'growth' figures are still horrendous and the outlook remains bleak as hell, whether or not it was a technical double dip or not. A statistical revision of 0.1% is hardly cause for popping the champagne corks.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10145392/No-double-dip-but-household-squeeze-hits-25-year-high.html

I don't think the outlook remains 'as bleak as hell'.  So far this year we have had consistent growth albeit on the cautious side (I'm happy with cautious growth myself, so long as it remains growth).

 

If you want 'bleak as hell' spend time in Spain, for example, where they have something like 27% unemployment and the economy hasn't been out of recession for years.

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Does Osborne have anything to do with Italy?

 

 
Debt crisis in Italy
Italy's finance ministry on Wednesday denied that the billions of euros in potential losses from operations in derivatives in the 1990s posed any risk to public finances. The country is again coming under increasing pressure in the debt crisis.

 

 
I should have posted the one about foreign investment in Germany falling from nearly £50bn to a mere £6bn in 2012.

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If you want 'bleak as hell' spend time in Spain, for example, where they have something like 27% unemployment and the economy hasn't been out of recession for years.

Remember the UB40 song 'Ghost Town'? Anyone who thought that applicable to 80s Britain should have a look at rural inland southern Spain. I had a week there earlier this month and the place is desolate

Still, their recession hass only been one long 'single dip' so not as bad as ours, eh?

Errrmmm...

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Is a 0.1% revision any less of a catastrophe, regardless of the use of the term 'double dip'?

 

I think there are bigger forces at work hindering economic recovery than the use of mere words by the media. If only the cause were that trivial.

Yes it is because it promotes the headline impression of the UK is an economy in recession when it actually, by whaever margin, hasnt been. Any overseas invester looking at UK would take his investment elsewhere given the negative climate and image promoted by Labour and media doom mongers

Yes there are massive forces at work throughout the global economy and within our own but a rational sense of perspective would have been useful over the last couple of years... but that doesnt sell papers or attract whoops of support on Question Time

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Ah, which of his actions in particular have kept us from not actually falling into recession?

 

This is the more likely explanation, but admittedly a lot less "waaah, the Tories eat children"

 

Do you post anywhere else on TRL or only on political threads on AOB?

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More precise reporting on economic news...

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Yes it is because it promotes the headline impression of the UK is an economy in recession when it actually, by whaever margin, hasnt been. Any overseas invester looking at UK would take his investment elsewhere given the negative climate and image promoted by Labour and media doom mongers

Yes there are massive forces at work throughout the global economy and within our own but a rational sense of perspective would have been useful over the last couple of years... but that doesnt sell papers or attract whoops of support on Question Time

 

Except that it actually was in recession, on the admission of the chief economist of the ONS. The GDP at the end of Q1 2012 was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q4 2011, which, in turn was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q3 2011. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession.

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Except that it actually was in recession, on the admission of the chief economist of the ONS. The GDP at the end of Q1 2012 was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q4 2011, which, in turn was smaller than the GDP at the end of Q3 2011. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession.

You're quite right, to be more precise I should have said that 'the headline impression of the UK is an economy in a double dip recession when it actually, by whaever margin, hasnt been'

My overriding point however has been that a double dip surely isnt as damaging as one long one, it just sounds more dramatic, which itself has contributed to the disappointingly slow recovery

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When it was thought that there was a double dip recession, it was said to beonly a "technical recession" now the figures have been proved to be slightly wrong everything in the garden is lovely.  But what about the figures for the last quarter?  Aren't they within the same error range?  Whatever the figures say, take it from someone who's out there trying to sell - this country is in a recession.  As for the debt, the government (Mr Osborne that is) has actually increased it since taking office.  The last government frittered away our money on such frivolities as teachers, doctors and nurses, on building new schools and hospitals.  They were caught with their trousers down when the recession hit. No one in government, in the civil service, in the Bank of England, or for that matter in the Tory party saw it coming.  In 2007, Cameron and Osborne were calling for less regulation of the banks and promising to match Labour's spending plans.  The mess has been made considerably worse by Osborne's policies.  This government did inherit a large deficit, but they also inherited 2% growth and a plan to deal with the deficit sensibly.  Osborne decided to go for broke and cut, using the excuse that it was all Labour's fault. Let's not forget that by now the policy would have worked and we'd be in the sunlit uplands.  The policy didn't work and what's George's answer?  More of the same. ( with barbecue relish please!)

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