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John Drake

23/11/13 - World Cup Semi Final 1: England v New Zealand (Wembley)

Who will win?  

110 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • England by 25 points or more
      3
    • England by 19 to 24 points
      1
    • England by 13 to 18 points
      3
    • England by 7 to 12 points
      35
    • England by 1 to 6 points
      22
    • New Zealand by 1 to 6 points
      8
    • New Zealand by 7 to 12 points
      11
    • New Zealand by 13 to 18 points
      16
    • New Zealand by 19 to 24 points
      5
    • New Zealand by 25 points or more
      6


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Some lengthy posts there and nothing to add to the in depth analysis

 

We need to be error free with the ball and play out the sets, with a good kick to corners etc to turn them round.

 

Defending, disciplined and wrap up the ball.

 

We have the ability, do the players have the self belief? We'll find out by 3pm

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Last time we played NZ we beat them 4 tries to 1 - that was only two years ago.  There have been a number of changes to each squad, but the retained players are key players.

 

The changes for NZ are;

 

Johnson for Marshall

Whare for Brown

Goodwin for Beale

Vautvei for Smith 

RTS for Nightingale

Pritchard for Manu

Kaisaino for packer

Moa for Blair 

SBW for Glenn.

 

This is an improvement on their 2011 team, but the centres are on a par and it can be argued whether Foran/Johnson of 2013 is better than Foran/Marshall of 2011.  Their forwards are stronger. 

 

Eng changes are;

 

Watkins for Reed

Cudjoe for Yeaman

Hill for Peacock

Burgess for Wilkin

O'Loughlin for Heighington

G.Burgess for Morley

Ferres for JJB

Mossop for Carvell

 

Not as many changes, but equally no change to the critically important 1,6,7,9 combo.  Centres are stronger, and forwards overall are stronger, although arguments for certain individuals.

 

Which is the stronger;

 

2013

 

Hill, G.Burgess, S. Burgess, Ferres, O'loughlin

 

2011

 

Morley, Peacock, Wilkin, JJB, Heighington

 

2013 wins hands down

 

NZ have improved, but so have Eng.  It might be close than 22 points of last time, but Eng should still win

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If Vatuvai doesn't play, then the world looks a much better place for us. At that point, their back line becomes much less of a threat.

If we stay close to them at half time, we will win. We have finished all of our games strongly, whereas they have dropped off.

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The Foran Johnson combo is far superior to the Marshall ball hogging one man band Kiwis

 

I'd argue that till the cows come home . a Marshall team could never construct the fluid back line moves the 2013 Kiwi's are putting together with relative ease.

 

The only player that the Kiwis are really missing from the comparison between the 08 side is Jeremy Smith.

 

Smith is New Zealands James Graham , tough.

 

I can't agree with Westwood being evens with Pritchard. Westwood gives away too many penalties for world class footy , and Pritchard has hand and foot work Westwood can only dream of.

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The Foran Johnson combo is far superior to the Marshall ball hogging one man band Kiwis

 

I'd argue that till the cows come home . a Marshall team could never construct the fluid back line moves the 2013 Kiwi's are putting together with relative ease.

 

The only player that the Kiwis are really missing from the comparison between the 08 side is Jeremy Smith.

 

Smith is New Zealands James Graham , tough.

 

I can't agree with Westwood being evens with Pritchard. Westwood gives away too many penalties for world class footy , and Pritchard has hand and foot work Westwood can only dream of.

And Westwood puts in the minutes and tackles that Pritchard can only dream of.

 

Westwood has made on average 30 tackles a game to Pritchards 17.  They are roughly the same on offloads and tackle busts and carries, but FP has averages more metres.

 

Different players who both bring different things, but as good as Pritchard is in attack, Westwood is in defence, and vice versa - hence they cancel each other out

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With regards the NZ half back combos this current combo have only had to play one difficult test so far - and they lost comfortably to an Aus outfit with a weaker team than the one that Eng played at the start of the WC.

 

They have had it easy so far - Sat is the whole teams first test since that Aus smashing in the Anzac

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I can't agree with Westwood being evens with Pritchard. Westwood gives away too many penalties for world class footy , and Pritchard has hand and foot work Westwood can only dream of.

perhaps if Pritchard got stuck in in defence he'd risk giving more penalties.

 

Westwood is England's 2nd highest tackler, averaging 24 per game.

 

Pritchard comes in at 16 tackles per match.

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Mt Smart broke the first rule of TRLclub. Do not criticise a Wire player. :)

I would pick Prichard ahead of Westwood 2013 vintage, but if he gets back to 2012 vintage.

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I love the general mood swings on this board. Two weeks out, England are always poor and the Kiwis or Aussies are demi-gods waiting to slaughter us. A few days out from the game we are going to stick it up 'em. LOL

 

That's the spirit lads.! I fancy us to win BTW

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Just to be clear about Westwood , I rate the guy , I just don't like that type of brain snap player , NZ has their own in FPN , not that I wouldn't have them in my team they just lose games sometimes and hopefully win more for you.

 

In this kind of very close contest risky players are marginaly attractive.

 

Westwoods an excellent tackler , Pritchard runs the Left side Attack of the Kiwis , they are different roles , one role is harder to replace in Rugby league teams than the other. 

 

You can expand a comparison of those two player to include the differences of the two forward packs.

 

New Zealand have gone for an attacking back row , If they choose to play their only major defensive forward Mannering at 13 it is a signal they are going all out in attack , you get more attack from Mannering in the middle than trading off the likes of Pritchard / Williams / FPN to allow Mannering to play in his club position ( he's not a loose forward for the warriors , he should be ).

 

England on the other hand have gone for a tough grinding forward pack , and if they can shut the Kiwi forwards down then they can handle anything the Kangaroo forwards bring in a final.

It will be an interesting clash of styles.

 

The only players New Zealand really fear in this tournament are Greg Inglis and Sam Tomkins.

 

The rest they have a lot of respect for.

 

If I were the England coach *cough*  I would make Tomkins more of a director of their spine than What I've seen in this tournament and play everything off him and Sam Burgess.

 

Those two are scary. You just don't know what they are capable of and what mood they're in. The rest are awesome  but those two are phenomenal.

 

Where are the support runners when Tomkins makes those half breaks around the ruck or he spins out of those tackles ? I don't get why they don't give him his own shadows left and right every time he touches a ball.

 

Anyway , there's no point comparing this Kiwi team to the other Kiwi sides , this ones the best they've had , England look better in the backline ( centers ) Englands halves are better than many are saying imo....well in the WC in any case. 

 

I know this Kiwi Team could thump England. I also know full well the English could rip NZ apart. There's no knowing who wins this.

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Mt Smart broke the first rule of TRLclub. Do not criticise a Wire player. :)

I would pick Prichard ahead of Westwood 2013 vintage, but if he gets back to 2012 vintage.

Oy, cut it out!  :sleep:

 

I make no apologies for my liking of Westwood, whether he is a Wire player or not.

 

When it comes to supporting England, I couldn't care less who they play their club Rugby for.

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England on the other hand have gone for a tough grinding forward pack , and if they can shut the Kiwi forwards down then they can handle anything the Kangaroo forwards bring in a final.

It will be an interesting clash of styles.

 

I'm not convinced that England's pack should be described as a tough grinding pack. 

 

To address your first point, Westwood was joint 4th top try scorer for Wire this year with 12.

 

Any pack with George and Sam Burgess, Westwood, Hill, Roby and O'Loughlin has some attacking prowess.

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Mt Smart broke the first rule of TRLclub. Do not criticise a Wire player. :)

I would pick Prichard ahead of Westwood 2013 vintage, but if he gets back to 2012 vintage.

 

No need to troll. and I thought you were getting better at this of late.

 

I thought Westwood was a bit off the pace on Saturday (as was Hill), but they've been two of our best forwards in the competition. I have no idea what you were watching this season, but Westwood had a fine season apart from the 3-4 weeks of the SL season where his fitness wasn't quite right.

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I'm not convinced that England's pack should be described as a tough grinding pack. 

 

To address your first point, Westwood was joint 4th top try scorer for Wire this year with 12.

 

Any pack with George and Sam Burgess, Westwood, Hill, Roby and O'Loughlin has some attacking prowess.

Fair enough.

 

I think I really meant they probably have the advantage in the grind over NZ who haven't looked that flash when they have had to get their hands dirty ( the Samoan 20 minute onslaught required the Kiwis to settle down and Grind the Smaoans out of their Brim stone mania , instead they tried to go bash for bash and it didn't work out so well for them ).

 

Twelve tries in the Super league is a bit of an eye opener , I've probably not seen the best of Westwood. I saw him play Wigan twice this year , the first game Warrington won , Westwood was impressive , the secound time was in the Final , Westwood should have been given ten in the bin.

He's been impressive in the world cup bar the opener against Australia , that coat hanger tackle was silly and then the dropped balls ( he wasn't the worst offender the Burgess lost that game for the amount of Ball they turned over to the aussie , frustratingly they were the best in other phases ). 

 

I'm sure England forwards will have no problem attacking New Zealand and are well capable of out playing them , but they won't offload and play a passing game the level of the NZ team if things stand as the respective sides have showed to date.

 

The NZ Hooker driving their forward attack makes most teams look grinding by comparison in my opinion. 

 

The Kiwi Forwards are shifting the ball like no other.

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I think its hard to judge either NZ or England on their most recent matches.

 

With the exception of the England v Australia, their games to date, with the greatest respect have been glorified training exercises with only one result possible.

 

Saturday will see the nerves and adrenaline kick in and both sides playing with a vastly greater intensity than either have shown so far.

 

I would love to see England win the match and ultimately the trophy although I do worry whether England would be able to lift themselves in successive weeks if they did manage to beat NZ.

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It's hard to infer from the games to date who would beat the other.

 

It's not hard to tell that watching England in the opener they let that one slip away and an epic victory was being built by them.

 

That first twenty minutes showed England could beat anyone at this tournament imo , most of what Australia did came of Englands mistakes /penalties conceded.

 

Thereafter you can infer a lot from the regular pool games in terms of which players are in form , which combinations are gelling , and what  set moves / structures the teams favor.

England , NZ & Australia haven't showed much interest in those games of wasting energy for eighty minutes

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It's hard to infer from the games to date who would beat the other.

 

It's not hard to tell that watching England in the opener they let that one slip away and an epic victory was being built by them.

 

That first twenty minutes showed England could beat anyone at this tournament imo , most of what Australia did came of Englands mistakes /penalties conceded.

 

Thereafter you can infer a lot from the regular pool games in terms of which players are in form , which combinations are gelling , and what  set moves / structures the teams favor.

England , NZ & Australia haven't showed much interest in those games of wasting energy for eighty minutes

 

To be honest it has been good for the credibility of the tournament, that the big 3 havent played with full intensity for 80 mins in any of their matches yet.

 

In fact all 3, took their feet of the pedal in the 2nd half of the QF matches, which was crucial in avoiding any potentially embarassing blow-outs.

 

However, I cant way for Saturday afternoon and 80 minutes of world-class, intense, test action.

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I'd like to see Tomkins playing in his original halfback position and perhaps Widopp at full back.

You're worse than mcbanana.

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Not sure who made the point about Sam, but it's a long time since he made a genuine break. He's still a great player, but since he was injured halfway through the year he's been quick but nowhere near as destructive. Not that he has needed to be yet, given the world class players around him for club and country.

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So he was lucky to be able to have the strength to ride the tackle and skill to make the pass to put his winger in unopposed? Yeah. Ok.

And v the Ausies do you mean the try just before half time when Perenara moved Burgess to the wrong side of the scrum leaving 3v2?

At least I've based my thoughts on watching the game with an open mind

He was lucky he wasn't put on his back side by the defender! 

 

Clearly his first thought was of having a bit of glory for himself, by beating the defender. 

 

Are you seriously telling me that 3/4 play has now evolved into drawing the defender, by crashing into them, riding the hit, and making the pass?  If that is so then something is wrong, and the art, and skill of being a 3/4 is no more.

 

Again I have to question what you are actually watching with regard to the Australia game?

 

Perenara did not move Sam Burgess, he moved Rangi Chase, incorrectly insisting where he was to stand.   This gave us a spacing problem in our line. As a result Sam was left on the wrong side defensively. He realised and hesitantly moved left to cut down the space, Slater read it, and took full advantage of it.  Plugging that space should be second nature, communicating should be second nature.  Their heads were in the sheds, and it was a sucker punch just before half time.

 

That ability to read, react, and make the right decision in a game is what sets great players apart, and the difference between winning and losing. 

 

Anyway no, I was not referring to that.  You watched it, you should know what I was referring to.

 

Like I said he has all the skills in the world, and I have seen flashes of genuine brilliance from him at club level.  However his decision making at test level is not what it should be, and he needs to really raise his commitment to defence.  What he did in the Fiji match was not acceptable, and he did put his hand up and admit that. 

 

My mind is open when watching the games, what I am doing is trying to understand how you come to the conclusion that our back 5 is on a par with the best in the world based on what you have seen.  If our 3/4 were Australian do you really think Tim Sheens would be agonising over who to pick out of Cudjoe, Watkins, Hayne, Inglis, Jennings, Morris, Tate.  They wouldn't have even been on the plane over here.

 

They are the product of our domestic competition, which is where the real problem is.  Until this tests our players on a weekly basis, we'll always be at a disadvantage.   That is not to say they've no chance in this competition, because I honestly believe they have every chance. 

 

On Saturday I hope they all come out focused, and confident in their own ability to do their job and dig in for their team mates, I hope they have the game of their lives against New Zealand, and top it off a week later.

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Cudjoe is no were near hargreves he would struggle get a start at any nrl club he is not good enough.goulding, jack hughes, ablett, cook, atkins bridge, simon grix, ratchford would all do a better job at centre.

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Just to be clear about Westwood , I rate the guy , I just don't like that type of brain snap player , NZ has their own in FPN , not that I wouldn't have them in my team they just lose games sometimes and hopefully win more for you.

 

In this kind of very close contest risky players are marginaly attractive.

 

Westwoods an excellent tackler , Pritchard runs the Left side Attack of the Kiwis , they are different roles , one role is harder to replace in Rugby league teams than the other. 

 

You can expand a comparison of those two player to include the differences of the two forward packs.

 

New Zealand have gone for an attacking back row , If they choose to play their only major defensive forward Mannering at 13 it is a signal they are going all out in attack , you get more attack from Mannering in the middle than trading off the likes of Pritchard / Williams / FPN to allow Mannering to play in his club position ( he's not a loose forward for the warriors , he should be ).

 

England on the other hand have gone for a tough grinding forward pack , and if they can shut the Kiwi forwards down then they can handle anything the Kangaroo forwards bring in a final.

It will be an interesting clash of styles.

 

The only players New Zealand really fear in this tournament are Greg Inglis and Sam Tomkins.

 

The rest they have a lot of respect for.

 

If I were the England coach *cough*  I would make Tomkins more of a director of their spine than What I've seen in this tournament and play everything off him and Sam Burgess.

 

Those two are scary. You just don't know what they are capable of and what mood they're in. The rest are awesome  but those two are phenomenal.

 

Where are the support runners when Tomkins makes those half breaks around the ruck or he spins out of those tackles ? I don't get why they don't give him his own shadows left and right every time he touches a ball.

 

Anyway , there's no point comparing this Kiwi team to the other Kiwi sides , this ones the best they've had , England look better in the backline ( centers ) Englands halves are better than many are saying imo....well in the WC in any case. 

 

I know this Kiwi Team could thump England. I also know full well the English could rip NZ apart. There's no knowing who wins this.

 

 

New Zealand have not beaten Australia since 2010.

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