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Bedford Roughyed

Malaysian airliner crashes in Ukraine

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Is this what happens when you give separatist groups ground to air missiles? Nearly 300 people on board.

 

(Complete speculation of course!)

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Is this what happens when you give separatist groups ground to air missiles? Nearly 300 people on board.

 

(Complete speculation of course!)

Although the full details haven't yet emerged this is tragic news.

 

It probably isn't wise to speculate too widely on the cause of the crash at this stage.

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Separatists have removed tweets from a few hours ago bragging about downing a Ukrainian cargo plane.

 

Suspicion is on them at the moment.

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Separatists have removed tweets from a few hours ago bragging about downing a Ukrainian cargo plane.

 

Suspicion is on them at the moment.

They've also removed tweets stating they had captured the Buk Missile System, which is capable of downing aircraft up to 72'000ft. Throw in the fact that a Ukrainian was supposedly shot down yesterday either by Russia or rebels yesterday at more than 30,000ft, suspicion is firmly on them presently.

However, whoever has done this, my heart goes out to the families and relatives of those poor people on the plane.

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Known nationalities: 154 Dutch, 27 Australians, 23 Malaysians, 11 Indonesians, 6 UK, 4 Germans; 4 Belgians, 3 Filipinos, 1 Canadian

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Known nationalities: 154 Dutch, 27 Australians, 23 Malaysians, 11 Indonesians, 6 UK, 4 Germans; 4 Belgians, 3 Filipinos, 1 Canadian

9 Brits according to BBC Breakfast with over a 100 passengers being leading AIDS experts on route to a conference in Australia.

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Apparently the missile launch will have been tracked by military radar and satellite systems,who is going to point the finger at who outside of the Russians pointing the finger at the Ukraine and vice versa.

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Its also been reported that the aircrafts black box has been sent to Moscow.

 

Things could get real ugly real quick here. Although this has been building for some time.

 

My thoughts go out to the families of the victims. 

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A hugely tragic incident that will be far harder to prove than people are suggesting above, "evidence" from either side is fairly easy to manipulate if you control that data to start with.

 

What it may do though is just shock the Russians into stepping back from Ukraine now that, in my opinion, either they or their funded separatists have screwed up so badly.  It'll just encourage the Americans and EU to step up sanctions to yet a higher level, Russia despite their bluster can't afford the sanctions in place now and will have to either make a conscious effort to tough it out or work out some sort of face-saving compromise.  Maybe a few sacrificial separatists, much like the Lockerbie bombers, offered up to secure peace.

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Disgusting. Giving complex weapons to simple people.

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Without taking away from the fact that the people who fired the missile are to blame: what the **** was a passenger plane doing flying directly over a war zone?

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Without taking away from the fact that the people who fired the missile are to blame: what the **** was a passenger plane doing flying directly over a war zone?

apparently it was deemed safe by some aviation bodies and numerous airlines were regularly flying that route.

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I see some poor Australian family have had a double tragedy this year losing family members in the missing MH disaster and now further family members in the Ukraine incident. That beggars belief and is simply unreal...

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I'm heading put to Sydney airport soon to pick up family flying home from Europe (Cathay)

Apparently family and friends of those murdered in the Ukraine are going to the various airports around Australia just to see if their loved ones will still walk through the gates..

Around 100 aids/hiv researchers were on the flight heading to a global conference in Melbourne.

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I see some poor Australian family have had a double tragedy this year losing family members in the missing MH disaster and now further family members in the Ukraine incident. That beggars belief and is simply unreal...

 

Bloody hell that's just beyond awful

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Without taking away from the fact that the people who fired the missile are to blame: what the **** was a passenger plane doing flying directly over a war zone?

 

They fly over war zones all the time.  The 'experts' deemed that it was dangerous below about 25,000ft, add a margin of error and they decreed that above 32,000ft was OK.  That was based on the Russians and Ukrainians not doing anything stupid, and the separatists only having shoulder launched systems.

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They fly over war zones all the time.  The 'experts' deemed that it was dangerous below about 25,000ft, add a margin of error and they decreed that above 32,000ft was OK.  That was based on the Russians and Ukrainians not doing anything stupid, and the separatists only having shoulder launched systems.

Unless technology has left me completely behind in a few short years then the very best hand-held surface to air missiles can do around 10km which would mean an idiot with a hand-held one would have to be almost directly underneath the plane at 32,000ft to have the tiniest hope of hitting it.  The thinking is that those who control the larger missiles with far larger ranges that require proper missile platforms are likely to be properly trained and realise that a civilian plane in an international flight path is not fair game.

 

What that does mean is that it's highly unlikely that this was just an untrained separatist with a hand-held missile making a mistake.  Undoubtedly it was a mistake but realistically can only have been done by a properly trained crew with regular military equipment.

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Unless technology has left me completely behind in a few short years then the very best hand-held surface to air missiles can do around 10km which would mean an idiot with a hand-held one would have to be almost directly underneath the plane at 32,000ft to have the tiniest hope of hitting it.  The thinking is that those who control the larger missiles with far larger ranges that require proper missile platforms are likely to be properly trained and realise that a civilian plane in an international flight path is not fair game.

 

What that does mean is that it's highly unlikely that this was just an untrained separatist with a hand-held missile making a mistake.  Undoubtedly it was a mistake but realistically can only have been done by a properly trained crew with regular military equipment.

 

Possibly, and I know this is supposition of the highest, but were a bunch of untrained separatists to get their hands on such equipment, then they may have been able to figure out how to fire it (I'm guessing any control interface wouldn't be too complicated... mostly supposition again on my part but I did do some programming on weapons aircraft... quite a while ago though). I'm not certain that it had to be a trained crew. Or at least not a highly trained crew at any rate.

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Ukraine had conscription until 2013, so most males will have had some military training.  Therefore it's not too far fetched an idea to say a separatist militia could find someone to operate such equipment with little or no refresher training.

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Ukraine had conscription until 2013, so most males will have had some military training.  Therefore it's not too far fetched an idea to say a separatist militia could find someone to operate such equipment with little or no refresher training.

There are lots of viable options:

1. Ukrainian Forces utilising their known surface-to-air capabilities

2. Pro-Ukrainian militias utilising option 1

3. Pro-Russian militias using known captured surface-to-air capabilities

4. Pro-Russian militias using Russian provided surface-to-air capabilities

5. Russian Forces utilising their known surface-to-air capabilities

Even more remote options such as air-to-air missiles from either Ukrainian or Russia aircraft are possibilities. Looking at the balance of probability, some options arguably could be ruled out quickly, especially if some of the evidence in the open domain is correct. But everything is just suspicion at the moment and I'd very surprised if the truth will ever be known as there will be some powerful people withholding the truth.

I just feel incredibly sorry for the families and friends of the poor victims in this awful event.

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There are lots of viable options:

1. Ukrainian Forces utilising their known surface-to-air capabilities

2. Pro-Ukrainian militias utilising option 1

Both highly unlikely. The separatists don't have any planes so there is no logical reason why either Ukraine or pro-Ukraine forces would shoot at any aircraft.

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Both highly unlikely. The separatists don't have any planes so there is no logical reason why either Ukraine or pro-Ukraine forces would shoot at any aircraft.

There's a chance right sector would have done it as a false flag but seems very unlikely

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US accuses Russia. EU accuses Russia, Kiev accuses Russia. Russia accuses Kiev. Rebels destroy evidence. Black box missing. Rebels fire warning shots. UN completely useless and ineffective

Meanwhile, the broken mangled bodies of the completely innocent victims lie there decomposing, up to 100 bodies missing...

In the name of humanity, won't someone do something ?

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US accuses Russia. EU accuses Russia, Kiev accuses Russia. Russia accuses Kiev. Rebels destroy evidence. Black box missing. Rebels fire warning shots. UN completely useless and ineffective

Meanwhile, the broken mangled bodies of the completely innocent victims lie there decomposing, up to 100 bodies missing...

In the name of humanity, won't someone do something ?

 

Sorry, John, but the answer is "No!"

 

Money (aka "Trade") talks.

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