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ckn

2015 General Election predictions

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I was listening to the radio this morning on the way to work and heard a commentary about the latest polling results that show a Labour majority of around 40 seats if the election were held today.  That 40 majority coming at the expense of the Lib Dems who will lose around 40 MPs with those constituencies almost universally transferring to Labour control.  Tories are set to lose around 40-ish seats as well to Labour with the core problem being UKIP, the recent saying of "vote UKIP, get Labour" seems to be right.  If the results play out in 2015 this way I hope Miliband shows courtesy by sending a thank-you note to Farage.

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Ashcroft's polling seems to point to a narrow Labour majority.  I think the last poll of his I saw said the Lib Dems could hang on to 23 seats and Ukip had a chance in 2.

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I can still see a hung parliament happening. The Lib Dems will virtually cease to exist. I can't see Clegg having a snowball's chance in hell retaining his seat, so that will make for interesting times. UKIP could end up being a coalition partner, but I can't see a tie-up with UKIP and Labour. 

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Absolutely no idea who I will be voting for. Sick to death of all of them.

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I just can't envisage a scenerio were Labour/Milliband could possibly cock it up from here and not win!

 

Lib Dems imploding, a substantial chunk of Tory votes of previous elections probably heading off in UKIPs direction and 5 years of Government that I can't see endearing the Tories to anyone who didn't vote for them last time around.  Would be a spectacular own goal for Labour to lose it from here!

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I can still see a hung parliament happening. The Lib Dems will virtually cease to exist. I can't see Clegg having a snowball's chance in hell retaining his seat, so that will make for interesting times. UKIP could end up being a coalition partner, but I can't see a tie-up with UKIP and Labour. 

 

 

A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, and Clegg is on course to lose his seat according to an ICM poll carried out roughly 6-8 weeks ago. But UKIP won't be coalition partners as, although they'll get lots of votes, the system doesn't allow them to be turned into seats. It's 50-50 with the bookies whether they win zero or one, so they'll have nothing to contribute to any would-be coalition.

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A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, and Clegg is on course to lose his seat according to an ICM poll carried out roughly 6-8 weeks ago. But UKIP won't be coalition partners as, although they'll get lots of votes, the system doesn't allow them to be turned into seats. It's 50-50 with the bookies whether they win zero or one, so they'll have nothing to contribute to any would-be coalition.

That would open the door for Labour to deal with a Tim Farron-led Lib Dems, but there could be no seat in cabinet for the likes of Alexander, Laws and one or two others.

 

If Clegg somehow saved his seat Labour party members would be apoplectic if Miliband did a deal with him.

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The silly thing in the Lib Dem party now is that the same Lib Dems who were happy to knife Charlie Kennedy and Ming Campbell in the back despite them steadily improving the party are calling for stability and saying they must stick with Clegg.  All that'll do is hasten their march to utter irrelevance in 2015.

 

I'm convinced Labour will get a majority now despite Labour having the appeal of a rancid sewage pipe.  That said, that rancid sewage pipe is a better alternative of sewage than we get from other parties.

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Labour will win but the likelihood is they'll be a very poor government akin to Francois Hollande in France. The 2020 election will be the interesting one (or earlier if things don't last). The average UKIP voter won't have a strong preference for Conservative over Labour so makes no sense to expect a tactical vote. UKIP have much more chance in working class areas than the Tory heartland shires. Lib Dems should get obliterated so much comes down to Scotland and if they're still British whether SNP will back Labour or abstain

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A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, and Clegg is on course to lose his seat according to an ICM poll carried out roughly 6-8 weeks ago. But UKIP won't be coalition partners as, although they'll get lots of votes, the system doesn't allow them to be turned into seats. It's 50-50 with the bookies whether they win zero or one, so they'll have nothing to contribute to any would-be coalition.

Weren't you trying to convince me a few weeks ago that a Labour majority was all but inevitable, what with the electoral system favouring Labour, Labour doing so much better in marginals, etc?

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In many ways Labour are making hard work of it.  The Coalition are giving them so many free hits, yet they don't seem to of found the killer instinct (or policies), it's more a case of 'you are not them'.

 

The LD' s were up against it from the very start, even if the coalition had been a wonderful success I think they would of still lost votes.

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The silly thing in the Lib Dem party now is that the same Lib Dems who were happy to knife Charlie Kennedy and Ming Campbell in the back despite them steadily improving the party are calling for stability and saying they must stick with Clegg.  All that'll do is hasten their march to utter irrelevance in 2015.

 

I'm convinced Labour will get a majority now despite Labour having the appeal of a rancid sewage pipe.  That said, that rancid sewage pipe is a better alternative of sewage than we get from other parties.

a rancid sewage pipe is better than having sewage all over your garden!

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In many ways Labour are making hard work of it.  The Coalition are giving them so many free hits, yet they don't seem to of found the killer instinct (or policies), it's more a case of 'you are not them'.

 

The LD' s were up against it from the very start, even if the coalition had been a wonderful success I think they would of still lost votes.

A free hit:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/listen-tory-oliver-letwin-letting-3933116

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http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1692295/How-the-rich-got-richer-under-Labour.html

 

do the labour party have any plans to redress the obscene imbalance between rich and poor if they are elected? Their track record isn't that great is it?

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Weren't you trying to convince me a few weeks ago that a Labour majority was all but inevitable, what with the electoral system favouring Labour, Labour doing so much better in marginals, etc?

I think the main thing I was trying to say is that a Tory majority is virtually impossible, and that will remain the case for many years. Irrespective of personalities and policies, the fact that Labour have so many more safe seats means they turn votes into seats at a far more prolific rate. I don't think there are 326 winnable seats for the Conservatives and I don't see how that can change for a long time. You can trace the roots of the declining Tory heartlands back to the 1954 election and they don't seem to understand what they have to do to halt it.

 

The bookies have hung parliament as the clear favourite outcome. I'd probably agree but think that a Labour majority is still a good shout, especially at the odds you'll get. But the best value bet if you have a Betfair account is to lay the Tory majority at something ridiculous like 3/1.

 

Tories winning most votes but Labour most seats is also a good bet at about 4/1.

 

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Anything is possible between now and next May. It's what happens next Feb, March and April that really counts. Plenty of time for electoral bribes from both sides. Burnham is already planning on his: putting his hand in your pocket to the tune of £25k whereas Cameron is engaging in fruitless gestures designed to retain the Daily Mail readers. However, given there are 20 times more of them than there Guardian readers for Miliband to bribe, the result could be not quite what you may think or wish for.

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If the Tories had played fair with the Lib/Dems over electoral reform ( i.e.not intervened as a party) and Lords reform, they'd have been able to redraw the electoral boundaries in a way that benefited them.  They didn't and the Lib/Dems blocked the boundary changes.  If Scotland votes for independence then I reckon whatever happens next May the Tories will bide their time and walk back into Downing Street in 2016.  But without Dave at a guess.  Dave is an absolute disaster. He's lazy, conceited, and concerned with doing anything that will keep him in no 10 to flatter his personal vanity.  The sooner he's gone the better for all of us.

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I was listening to the radio this morning on the way to work and heard a commentary about the latest polling results that show a Labour majority of around 40 seats if the election were held today. 

 

If Scotland breaks away from the UK in the September vote, Labour will lose about 40 MP's, so would this more or less guarantee a very close election?

 

I know that when politics have been discusses with friends,  no matter whether they are left or right leaning, the impression I get is that people do not have a clue of who they would for this time round ( the best of a very bad bunch?) - but they all agree they won't be voting LibDem.

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I think the main thing I was trying to say is that a Tory majority is virtually impossible, and that will remain the case for many years. Irrespective of personalities and policies, the fact that Labour have so many more safe seats means they turn votes into seats at a far more prolific rate. I don't think there are 326 winnable seats for the Conservatives and I don't see how that can change for a long time. You can trace the roots of the declining Tory heartlands back to the 1954 election and they don't seem to understand what they have to do to halt it.

 

The bookies have hung parliament as the clear favourite outcome. I'd probably agree but think that a Labour majority is still a good shout, especially at the odds you'll get. But the best value bet if you have a Betfair account is to lay the Tory majority at something ridiculous like 3/1.

 

Tories winning most votes but Labour most seats is also a good bet at about 4/1.

 

 

 

This. Despite being in recession, up against a PM who was incredibly unpopular (unfairly so in my opinion), the Conservatives still couldn't get a majority. As much as I have bleated on about Clegg setting back the Lib Dems, God knows how many years, this coalition has not done the Conservatives any favours whatsoever for future general elections.

 

To pee off the bulk of the NHS, teachers and local government employees is a lot of voters to not have. I'm not saying they were Conservative voters in the first place, but they will have certainly lost any floating votes.   

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Kinnock was well ahead of major right up until the actual day of the election. Ultimately, rightly or wrongly, the public preferred the devil they knew to someone who could talk well but had no governmental track record. Miliband has a governmental track record but cannot talk well or even eat a bacon sandwich without looking a total prat.

 

The Tories will gain last-minute switched votes.

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If Scotland breaks away from the UK in the September vote, Labour will lose about 40 MP's, so would this more or less guarantee a very close election?

I know that when politics have been discusses with friends, no matter whether they are left or right leaning, the impression I get is that people do not have a clue of who they would for this time round ( the best of a very bad bunch?) - but they all agree they won't be voting LibDem.

How would it work with Scottish independence? If they vote yes in September is there not still a while before they actually become independent?

If so, does Scotland still have MPs in the UK parliament next year and what happens to them when Scotland goes independent? Or am I just confused?

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Posted · Hidden by ckn, August 2, 2014 - No reason given

How would it work with Scottish independence? If they vote yes in September is there not still a while before they actually become independent?

If so, does Scotland still have MPs in the UK parliament next year and what happens to them when Scotland goes independent? Or am I just confused?

no more than the rest of us

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Posted · Hidden by ckn, August 2, 2014 - No reason given

no more than the rest of us

Speak for yourself please

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My prediction is that whichever party 'wins' the next election, they will achieve less than 40% of the actual votes cast on a turnout of about 65%, which won't give them much of a genuine mandate to do anything at all. Not that this will stop them claiming a mandate to do anything they choose.

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