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Saint Toppy

Our new position in the EU

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20 minutes ago, Padge said:

 

It may have escaped your notice but we have NOT left the EU.

That's why I wrote 'it turns out that only hundreds may be'.  You will notice the word 'may' in my sentence?

A few banks have recently stated that thousands are now unlikely to move to EU countries; just enough to staff their satellite offices created to facilitate ongoing Eurozone business.

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11 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

That's why I wrote 'it turns out that only hundreds may be'.  You will notice the word 'may' in my sentence?

A few banks have recently stated that thousands are now unlikely to move to EU countries; just enough to staff their satellite offices created to facilitate ongoing Eurozone business.

If only one bank job is relocated to the EU then that is a negative, not positive, effect of brexit.

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5 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

If only one bank job is relocated to the EU then that is a negative, not positive, effect of brexit.

It won't have escaped your notice that we've moved from "everything will be better" to "it won't be as bad as the worst visions put forward by others".

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5 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

If only one bank job is relocated to the EU then that is a negative, not positive, effect of brexit.

The banks are nervously waiting on the "no deal" scenario outcome.  "No deal" for them means that they must have a HQ in the EU to do their EU trade.  The Bank of England, in its neutral regulatory pose, has warned publicly that 10,000 jobs would go immediately on Brexit with "no deal".  This isn't wild journalism, it's the BoE's official statement summarising the banks' official returns to them on their firm plans.  Also, this is just the banking regulated staff, not the support staff meaning it's not beyond reason to say that 10,000 other jobs will go.

The journalistic opinion is at 75,000 jobs lost, but that has to be looked at with suspicion.

Macron's statement of no possibility of a bespoke City deal has firmed up the plans for the banks with many stepping up their recruitment for change personnel.  Those banks that made the move early have the first pick of the market and the others are having to outbid each other at stupid rates.  Just search "brexit" on Jobserve or one of the other job boards, the first job I saw on there was a £600-£625p/d IT Test Manager, that's an insane rate of money for what is actually a fairly basic job.  The unadvertised rates that are being thrown around are just stupid, ranging to £2k p/d for certain skills, but they're demanding specific banking experience for it.

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10 minutes ago, ckn said:

The banks are nervously waiting on the "no deal" scenario outcome.  "No deal" for them means that they must have a HQ in the EU to do their EU trade.  The Bank of England, in its neutral regulatory pose, has warned publicly that 10,000 jobs would go immediately on Brexit with "no deal".  This isn't wild journalism, it's the BoE's official statement summarising the banks' official returns to them on their firm plans.  Also, this is just the banking regulated staff, not the support staff meaning it's not beyond reason to say that 10,000 other jobs will go.

The journalistic opinion is at 75,000 jobs lost, but that has to be looked at with suspicion.

Macron's statement of no possibility of a bespoke City deal has firmed up the plans for the banks with many stepping up their recruitment for change personnel.  Those banks that made the move early have the first pick of the market and the others are having to outbid each other at stupid rates.  Just search "brexit" on Jobserve or one of the other job boards, the first job I saw on there was a £600-£625p/d IT Test Manager, that's an insane rate of money for what is actually a fairly basic job.  The unadvertised rates that are being thrown around are just stupid, ranging to £2k p/d for certain skills, but they're demanding specific banking experience for it.

Something something Bank of England are remainers something.

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54 minutes ago, ckn said:

Just search "brexit" on Jobserve or one of the other job boards, the first job I saw on there was a £600-£625p/d IT Test Manager, that's an insane rate of money for what is actually a fairly basic job. 

That rate isn't that much higher than the going rate for test managers, especially for large development programmes. I've heard of higher.

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2 hours ago, Saintslass said:

I wonder whether this falls into the same category as the bank project fear?  After all, banks said tens of thousands of jobs would be lost if we left the EU but it turns out only hundreds may be, in order to facilitate continued Eurozone business.  

The problem with project fear is that people stop believing the claims.  Crying wolf is another way of putting it.

Perhaps Eurostar should invest appropriately so that their freight business could cope in the event of us leaving the customs union.  (Not sure why they couldn't cope with such a change but there you go)

Is there an economic plan to replace the tax take of those jobs, even if it turns out to be only in the hundreds?

My beer mat calculations lead me to believe your average City work is on £72,500 according to roles advertised on CW Jobs in December 2017.

People on that salary will pay £17,696 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £4,974 in National Insurance, according to the money saving expert tax calculator.

To recoup the lost tax of just 1 of these jobs, and assuming you'd replaced them with jobs earning the national annual average salary which according to the Office for National Statistics in 2017 was £28,600.

People on that salary will pay £3,418 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £2,452 in National Insurance.

£22,670 v £5,870 - so for every job lost in the City, we need to find nearly 4 new ones paying the national average, or suffer a hit in revenue for the tax man.

How we going to do that?

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10 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

That rate isn't that much higher than the going rate for test managers, especially for large development programmes. I've heard of higher.

I think you've been overpaying then!  The going rate for a top-end test manager in most of the industries I've worked in is £500-£550.  Beyond that, you're getting into paying more for little extra.  I know one major telecoms company who have a cap of £450p/d for a test manager supervising 40 testers and are always able to fill the three roles they have with really good people.

Also, I've seen one "brexit" tech spec and the testing of that would come into the mid-ranking sized project at best.  I've seen substantially more complex MS Office upgrade projects...

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8 minutes ago, shrek said:

Is there an economic plan to replace the tax take of those jobs, even if it turns out to be only in the hundreds?

My beer mat calculations lead me to believe your average City work is on £72,500 according to roles advertised on CW Jobs in December 2017.

People on that salary will pay £17,696 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £4,974 in National Insurance, according to the money saving expert tax calculator.

To recoup the lost tax of just 1 of these jobs, and assuming you'd replaced them with jobs earning the national annual average salary which according to the Office for National Statistics in 2017 was £28,600.

People on that salary will pay £3,418 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £2,452 in National Insurance.

£22,670 v £5,870 - so for every job lost in the City, we need to find nearly 4 new ones paying the national average, or suffer a hit in revenue for the tax man.

How we going to do that?

The freedom loving folk of the world will flock to us once we're outside of the clutches of the evil EU to buy our jam, nuclear fission powered kettles, flamethrower toasters and jet turbine vacuum cleaners.  That'll generate us enough tax to compensate.

If only the companies railing against such things weren't non-UK domiciled for their manufacturing and tax...

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24 minutes ago, shrek said:

Is there an economic plan to replace the tax take of those jobs, even if it turns out to be only in the hundreds?

My beer mat calculations lead me to believe your average City work is on £72,500 according to roles advertised on CW Jobs in December 2017.

People on that salary will pay £17,696 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £4,974 in National Insurance, according to the money saving expert tax calculator.

To recoup the lost tax of just 1 of these jobs, and assuming you'd replaced them with jobs earning the national annual average salary which according to the Office for National Statistics in 2017 was £28,600.

People on that salary will pay £3,418 in Income Tax in 17/18 and £2,452 in National Insurance.

£22,670 v £5,870 - so for every job lost in the City, we need to find nearly 4 new ones paying the national average, or suffer a hit in revenue for the tax man.

How we going to do that?

Raise the minimum wage to broaden the tax base I'd say

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34 minutes ago, bowes said:

Raise the minimum wage to broaden the tax base I'd say

That could be done anyway without having to drive high earning jobs abroad.

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10 hours ago, Saintslass said:

I wonder whether this falls into the same category as the bank project fear?  After all, banks said tens of thousands of jobs would be lost if we left the EU but it turns out only hundreds may be, in order to facilitate continued Eurozone business.  

The problem with project fear is that people stop believing the claims.  Crying wolf is another way of putting it.

Perhaps Eurostar should invest appropriately so that their freight business could cope in the event of us leaving the customs union.  (Not sure why they couldn't cope with such a change but there you go)

But you are the one that said maybe, not your bogey man from project fear, you are now edging your bets more toward won't.

Is there a danger to jobs on the scales predicted or will it be just a very small handful that you couldn't care less about. Maybe implies that you think it could very well be true, as opposed to won't which means you believe it will not happen.

Edited by Padge

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1 hour ago, Padge said:

But you are the one that said maybe, not your bogey man from project fear, you are now edging your bets more toward won't.

Is there a danger to jobs on the scales predicted or will it be just a very small handful that you couldn't care less about. Maybe implies that you think it could very well be true, as opposed to won't which means you believe it will not happen.

To me it is just common sense that those jobs uniquely tied to the EU would move to an EU country once we left the EU.  It is very likely that those jobs are held by people from all over the EU even though they have been based here in the UK up to now.  That these decisions have been taken before we have actually left the EU doesn't surprise me either because it is sensible to plan ahead of time.  As far as I am aware I have never said that no jobs would be lost as a result of us leaving the EU; I don't think I have really commented on it at all.  What I never did believe was that tens of thousands of jobs would go as a result of us leaving the EU and I still don't believe it.  The banks are moving a few hundred staff to the EU to deal with Eurozone stuff which, again, makes sense.  I am not at all bothered that a few hundred people are moving somewhere else so that they can do a job that exists as a result of an organisation we won't be part of anymore.  

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17 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

To me it is just common sense that those jobs uniquely tied to the EU would move to an EU country once we left the EU.  It is very likely that those jobs are held by people from all over the EU even though they have been based here in the UK up to now.  That these decisions have been taken before we have actually left the EU doesn't surprise me either because it is sensible to plan ahead of time.  As far as I am aware I have never said that no jobs would be lost as a result of us leaving the EU; I don't think I have really commented on it at all.  What I never did believe was that tens of thousands of jobs would go as a result of us leaving the EU and I still don't believe it.  The banks are moving a few hundred staff to the EU to deal with Eurozone stuff which, again, makes sense.  I am not at all bothered that a few hundred people are moving somewhere else so that they can do a job that exists as a result of an organisation we won't be part of anymore.  

Put some paragraphs in it and I may read it, on a computer that style is just too hard to be bothered with deciphering.

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38 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

To me it is just common sense that those jobs uniquely tied to the EU would move to an EU country once we left the EU.  It is very likely that those jobs are held by people from all over the EU even though they have been based here in the UK up to now.  That these decisions have been taken before we have actually left the EU doesn't surprise me either because it is sensible to plan ahead of time.  As far as I am aware I have never said that no jobs would be lost as a result of us leaving the EU; I don't think I have really commented on it at all.  What I never did believe was that tens of thousands of jobs would go as a result of us leaving the EU and I still don't believe it.  The banks are moving a few hundred staff to the EU to deal with Eurozone stuff which, again, makes sense.  I am not at all bothered that a few hundred people are moving somewhere else so that they can do a job that exists as a result of an organisation we won't be part of anymore.  

I'm sure in the past you stated that you could see why the Euro clearing house would move from London.  And that agencies would move was project fear.  I might be wrong, and I'm sure you will tell me.

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11 hours ago, Padge said:

Put some paragraphs in it and I may read it, on a computer that style is just too hard to be bothered with deciphering.

Can't be bothered.

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11 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I'm sure in the past you stated that you could see why the Euro clearing house would move from London.  And that agencies would move was project fear.  I might be wrong, and I'm sure you will tell me.

Like I said in the post you responded to ...

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5 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

Brexit in one tweet:

(Actually the whole thread is worth a read).

Norway option is nearer to 95% of a cake, but with the option to also have a slice of other cakes 

Edited by bowes

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On 1/20/2018 at 1:24 PM, bowes said:

Raise the minimum wage to broaden the tax base I'd say

Which is may or may not be the answer, I'm not qualified to say, but I don't see it being proposed as an option but stand to be corrected.

Strikes me we seem to be doing an awful lot of shrugging that we may lose this that and the other, with regard to small numbers granted, but these things add up, I just don't have any confidence in those currently in office to make it work, hence being more than happy to carry on remoaning.

If they cock it up its the kids and the vulnerable that will suffer once more.

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12 hours ago, bowes said:

Norway option is nearer to 95% of a cake, but with the option to also have a slice of other cakes 

The Norwegian model represents such a huge transfer of power from Britain to other European countries that it's jaw dropping that any Brexiteer who talked about "taking back control" could suggest it.

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