Saint Toppy

Our new position in the EU

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43 minutes ago, ckn said:

At last an answer to a question I posed months before the referendum. A fairly high price to pay:

Quote

The annual direct cost of new tariffs and non-tariff barriers will be around £27 billion for UK firms (equivalent to 1.5% GVA) and around £31 billion for EU27 firms (equivalent to 0.4% GVA).

So much for the nonsense "It'l hurt them more than it will hurt us".

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to be fair £31b is greater than £27bn so it will  cost them more - it is just at there are nearly 10x as many of them it will hurt then less per capita

 

What a pity that £27bn PER ANNUM is just over 3x our NET EU contribution PER ANNUM or to put it another way we will be paying £18bn per annum in extra red tape to escape the red tape and that is about £1150 for each of the 70m people in the UK or just over £3k PER YEAR for every member of the working population

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6 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

to be fair £31b is greater than £27bn so it will  cost them more - it is just at there are nearly 10x as many of them it will hurt then less per capita

 

What a pity that £27bn PER ANNUM is just over 3x our NET EU contribution PER ANNUM or to put it another way we will be paying £18bn per annum in extra red tape to escape the red tape and that is about £1150 for each of the 70m people in the UK or just over £3k PER YEAR for every member of the working population

And that's just the tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade.  It doesn't include regulatory compliance and other stuff the report excludes.

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Interesting read, I doubt anyone will be along any time soon with anything meaningful to counter it.

But given we are were we are, I think my own personal red line would be if we come out the otherside of Brexit and I can retain my freedom of movement/European Citizenship then that'll do me.  Basically give me the same rights as someone post Brexit in say Northern Ireland.

Then if/when it all goes to pot at least I've got options

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I do agree with the concept but find "potentially aggressive tax planning schemes with a cross-border element" to be so subjective a measure it will be hard to enforce - they need to actually quantify it by saying something like "any scheme which has the potential likelihood to save more than 25% of an individual or corporate entities tax liability through it's use and that also contains a cross-border element"

 

That leaves far less wiggle room

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I would be more worried about the report form the Institute of Fiscal Studies - considering they are usually lambasted for being a right wing think tank who favour the rich at the expense of the poor working man their analysis makes dismal reading

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43397798

 

A couple of highlights

"Annual tax rises of £40bn will be needed if the government wants to keep spending constant and balance its books by 2025"

&

"If high-paid jobs - and EU citizens, who are well represented among high earners in the UK - relocate elsewhere, the consequences for the Exchequer will be severe,"

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47 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

"If high-paid jobs - and EU citizens, who are well represented among high earners in the UK - relocate elsewhere, the consequences for the Exchequer will be severe,"

You can raise more tax from the many than the few, and after Brexit there won't be the same restrictions on VAT.

So the severe consequences are likely to be with everyone - and disproportionally for low paid or unwaged people.

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10 minutes ago, tim2 said:

You can raise more tax from the many than the few, and after Brexit there won't be the same restrictions on VAT.

So the severe consequences are likely to be with everyone - and disproportionally for low paid or unwaged people.

I didn't realise the EU was stopping us from raising VAT, after Germany has a higher rate of VAT than us

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2 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

I didn't realise the EU was stopping us from raising VAT, after Germany has a higher rate of VAT than us

You're right - the restriction is on lowering it below 15%, except for some specific exceptions.

Won't hold my breath on lowering it below 15% given we aren't even at 15% now.

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Just now, tim2 said:

You're right - the restriction is on lowering it below 15%, except for some specific exceptions.

Won't hold my breath on lowering it below 15% given we aren't even at 15% now.

Well thats not exactly a restriction thats been holding us back! I don't think even labour would promise to take us there and I believe Johnson thinks VAT should be increased.

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On 3/10/2018 at 9:54 PM, Saint 1 said:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Exiting-the-European-Union/17-19/Cross-Whitehall-briefing/EU-Exit-Analysis-Cross-Whitehall-Briefing.pdf

The analysis I'm referring to is the published material by the Committee on Exiting the European Union, from documents by DExEU. If you go to page 19, you'll see the consideration of the beneficial future trade deals.

A US trade deal would boost GDP by an estimated 0.2% long-term and FTAs with every other significant economy by another 0.1% - 0.4%. So the best case scenario is a 0.6% boost. Let's double that to 1.2% to allow for unforeseen benefits and pessimistic and dodgy civil servants. Even the EEA-type deal sees us with a 1.8% drop in GDP. So where are we going to see these benefits from trade and why don't any of the DExEU know about it?

:whistle:

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28 minutes ago, tim2 said:

You're right - the restriction is on lowering it below 15%, except for some specific exceptions.

Won't hold my breath on lowering it below 15% given we aren't even at 15% now.

Also you can't raise VAT above 25% so we're slap bang in the middle of what's allowed

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11 minutes ago, bowes said:

Also you can't raise VAT above 25% so we're slap bang in the middle of what's allowed

Hungary is at 27% standard rate

Nobody has a standard rate below 17%

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4 hours ago, ckn said:

If you're interested in rattling the cage of Brexiteers then just let them have this little nugget:  The OBR have predicted we'll still be paying the EU money until 2064.  Then remind them that the OBR are a neutral body using government produced facts and figures to hold the government to account.

:P

If said Brexiteers have been listening to the news about this then they won't be remotely rattled as they will know that after about 2022, it's pretty much all pensions payments and the payments will be so small that they could, in theory, be paid off in one go.  However, the UK negotiated the protracted payment schedule so that they could renegotiate for quicker payment if they wished to.

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3 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Yep plenty of people who have lived here decades, married with kids, etc, who now have to apply for citizenship in order to avoid any issues in the future.  

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1 minute ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Yep plenty of people who have lived here decades, married with kids, etc, who now have to apply for citizenship in order to avoid any issues in the future.  

Good.  I like that.

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4 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

And in other news, day ends in y. 

Indeed.  That's exactly how Brexiteers have been feeling every time remainers bleat on about how many Brits are seeking citizenship elsewhere.

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