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graveyard johnny

how do you solve a problem like korea?

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the despot is not going to go without a bang from the look of things, how can a fat little idiot like him have such a hold on a nation, lots of questions to be asked and answered on this one

Edited by graveyard johnny

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19 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

the despot is not going to go without a bang from the look of things, how can a fat little idiot like him have such a hold on a nation, lots of questions to be asked and answered on this one

Which idiot are you talking about......?

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20 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

the despot is not going to go without a bang from the look of things, how can a fat little idiot like him have such a hold on a nation, lots of questions to be asked and answered on this one

Well he'll last until the next election, or be impeached whichever comes first.

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As a start, we should be excessively punishing anyone found to have supplied them with goods, even innocently, to "encourage" others to do more than basic due diligence on sales of sensitive goods.  Any C-level exec should go to jail if they were even slightly negligent.  Any country that has deliberately traded such sensitive stuff should join the international pariah list.

Here's an article that shows a few of them.

On N Korea itself, there is almost no "win" without massive risk of a retaliatory strike on a friendly nation.  There are a lot of very intelligent experts who have no idea either...  those who say there is an answer are probably not in that "intelligent expert" category.

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N. Korea is aware of what happened in Libya and Iraq.  Get a nuke and the chances of a conventional strike or invasion are much diminished.  However, there are hawks advising Trump regarding korea and China (John Bolton et al) who want regime change.

The first thing Trump could do is stop stoking a trade war with South Korea and nominate an ambassador.  This might reassure South Korea that the USA has their back, and stop South korea appeasing the North.  

Edited by Bedford Roughyed
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In answer to the OP, nothing! The opportunity to do something about NK was years ago and the UN, the US, China and the EU has long since missed the opportunity.

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3 hours ago, kiyan said:

In answer to the OP, nothing!

Not sure that is entirely true; but I don't think the US should be involved at all. Any solution must come from China; 90% of NK's trade is with China and so I don't believe Beijing don't have any leverage on the NK ruling elite.

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Even Britain's former ambassador to NK has now admitted that diplomacy now has no chance of success ad NK knows they can ignore the UN at will.

The only country who can stop them without all out war is China and currently there's little political will to intervene directly from them. Until they do its increasingly likely that war is coming.

I doubt the Yanks will make a pte-emptive strike, but with NK continuing to test fire missiles over allied countries like Japan, one more incident like this could set it all off. With or without a warhead, if just one of these lands on mainland Japan the Yanks will launch back, obliterating NK making the whole region uninhabitable for generations.

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11 minutes ago, Saint Toppy said:

Even Britain's former ambassador to NK has now admitted that diplomacy now has no chance of success ad NK knows they can ignore the UN at will.

The only country who can stop them without all out war is China and currently there's little political will to intervene directly from them. Until they do its increasingly likely that war is coming.

I doubt the Yanks will make a pte-emptive strike, but with NK continuing to test fire missiles over allied countries like Japan, one more incident like this could set it all off. With or without a warhead, if just one of these lands on mainland Japan the Yanks will launch back, obliterating NK making the whole region uninhabitable for generations.

Even our professionally engineered missiles with around 60 years of expertise in these things sometimes things go wrong in test flights. The failure rate is around 10% for new missiles I believe.  This is why test firing over occupied areas is not just dangerous, in this case it's also a disaster that's probably overdue.

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Nothing will happen. Behind the scenes diplomacy will sort it and we'll push it down the road for another few years.

A fresh news cycle will focus our minds elsewhere.

 

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4 hours ago, GeordieSaint said:

Not sure that is entirely true; but I don't think the US should be involved at all. Any solution must come from China; 90% of NK's trade is with China and so I don't believe Beijing don't have any leverage on the NK ruling elite.

China had the opportunity to rein NK in, but I think they too have missed the chance. Trade sanctions from China now will only impact his people and do you think he cares?

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2 hours ago, ckn said:

Even our professionally engineered missiles with around 60 years of expertise in these things sometimes things go wrong in test flights. The failure rate is around 10% for new missiles I believe.  This is why test firing over occupied areas is not just dangerous, in this case it's also a disaster that's probably overdue.

Having worked on a few, intially a 10% success would be considered good! Why do you think we perform the tests in the middle of no where!

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3 hours ago, kiyan said:

China had the opportunity to rein NK in, but I think they too have missed the chance. Trade sanctions from China now will only impact his people and do you think he cares?

I don't believe either regime in Beijing or Pyongyang will want to see NK fall. There will be channels open to put real pressure on the ruling elite that the general public won't see. I don't think China would shy away from a political assassination or two to ensure the US' interests in the area don't grow either. 

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2 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said:

I don't believe either regime in Beijing or Pyongyang will want to see NK fall. There will be channels open to put real pressure on the ruling elite that the general public won't see. I don't think China would shy away from a political assassination or two to ensure the US' interests in the area don't grow either. 

China is also acutely aware that economic sanctions would lead to a possible refugee crisis on its border.

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4 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

China is also acutely aware that economic sanctions would lead to a possible refugee crisis on its border.

Absolutely - it's why I'd expect a coup or an assassination before economic sanctions from the Chinese. Allowing NK to posture helps (in their opinion) prevent the US from increasing their influence on the peninsula. If they thought NK would actually fire a nuclear missile at the US, Japan or SK, or the US would conduct a pre-emptive assault, I think they'd step in.

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47 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said:

Absolutely - it's why I'd expect a coup or an assassination before economic sanctions from the Chinese. Allowing NK to posture helps (in their opinion) prevent the US from increasing their influence on the peninsula. If they thought NK would actually fire a nuclear missile at the US, Japan or SK, or the US would conduct a pre-emptive assault, I think they'd step in.

I agree a coup or assassination would be the best thing, you have to feel it for the people of the north, exactly the same people as the south but born on the wrong side of a toss of a coin, would be great to see them enjoy the freedom of their southern brethren

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1 hour ago, graveyard johnny said:

I agree a coup or assassination would be the best thing, you have to feel it for the people of the north, exactly the same people as the south but born on the wrong side of a toss of a coin, would be great to see them enjoy the freedom of their southern brethren

I'd prefer to see a peaceful solution; unrealistic of course.

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21 hours ago, graveyard johnny said:

the despot is not going to go without a bang from the look of things, how can a fat little idiot like him have such a hold on a nation, lots of questions to be asked and answered on this one

And that Kim Jong un is a right kn*b too...😉

Edited by Flagedgetouch
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9 minutes ago, Flagedgetouch said:

And that Kim Jong un is a right kn*b too...😉

to be fair if kim jong was making realistic chilling threats against your  country regarding atomic bombs would you rather  have trump or corbyn in charge? and please be honest.

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I don't really blame NK for wanting to develop a nuclear program intitially - the US has been threatening them with first strike for decades. That said, recent developments have moved way past the point of simple deterrence. The problem is when you have the US ramping up its military presence in SE Asia - as much to give China something to think about as it is to wind up Nk - the situation is going to keep escalating. 

This all follows standard imperial tactics - stir up trouble and then force 'client regimes' (South Korea and Japan) to do most of the military leg work and, subsequently take most of the casualties. In terms of a military confrontation the geography of the north lends itself to defensive battles, and whilst the north may have mainly outdated armour, artillery and aircraft: they have an absolute Sh*t ton of it! Any coalition would need 100% air superiority before any significant progress could be made - no simple task given NK also has an absolute Sh*t ton of S.A.M's making any air operations risky. And let's not even talk about amphibious landings - Inchon ain't happening twice! 

A diplomatic solution of some description is the most likely outcome here; but as has been attested above a lot of that depends on China, and wether an end to UN sanctions would be on the table; or at least an easing of them. 

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7 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

to be fair if kim jong was making realistic chilling threats against your  country regarding atomic bombs would you rather  have trump or corbyn in charge? and please be honest.

Neither, although I'd rather have either than Theresa May. America is simply reaping what Trump and previous administrations have sown with an antagonistic policy in SE Asia. If the guy down the street keeps threatening to shoot you how long before you go out and buy a gun? 

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1 hour ago, Flagedgetouch said:

I don't really blame NK for wanting to develop a nuclear program intitially - the US has been threatening them with first strike for decades. That said, recent developments have moved way past the point of simple deterrence. The problem is when you have the US ramping up its military presence in SE Asia - as much to give China something to think about as it is to wind up Nk - the situation is going to keep escalating. 

This all follows standard imperial tactics - stir up trouble and then force 'client regimes' (South Korea and Japan) to do most of the military leg work and, subsequently take most of the casualties. In terms of a military confrontation the geography of the north lends itself to defensive battles, and whilst the north may have mainly outdated armour, artillery and aircraft: they have an absolute Sh*t ton of it! Any coalition would need 100% air superiority before any significant progress could be made - no simple task given NK also has an absolute Sh*t ton of S.A.M's making any air operations risky. And let's not even talk about amphibious landings - Inchon ain't happening twice! 

A diplomatic solution of some description is the most likely outcome here; but as has been attested above a lot of that depends on China, and wether an end to UN sanctions would be on the table; or at least an easing of them. 

Nukes dispense with all the this nonsense of difficult terrain, fighting them on their own ground etc. etc.. Trump will go nuke.

The problem the Yanks have is that Trump will post on twitter" I'm going to press the button, you know the big red button, I'm pressing it now its coming Kim".

Edited by Padge
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1 hour ago, graveyard johnny said:

to be fair if kim jong was making realistic chilling threats against your  country regarding atomic bombs would you rather  have trump or corbyn in charge? and please be honest.

Neither, as they are probably as opposite as you can get!  Trump seems to not understand the power of words which scares me more than Corbyn.  

And in fairness to Corbyn, if Jong launched a nuke (singular as he aint got many) would you kill millions as revenge?  The nuclear deterrent only really works if both sides have overwhelming firepower (MAD).  

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1 hour ago, Padge said:

Nukes dispense with all the this nonsense of difficult terrain, fighting them on their own ground etc. etc.. Trump will go nuke.

The problem the Yanks have is that Trump will post on twitter" I'm going to press the button, you know the big red button, I'm pressing it now its coming Kim".

That was kind of the point I was trying to make in a round about way. The military difficulty of attempting to wage an offensive war on the Korean Peninsula is just as acute for the US now as it was in the 50's. Hence their constant nuclear sabre rattling. They know it and Kim knows it too. But Trump is merely a figurehead. A loud shouty one, but still a figurehead and I doubt those that really run Americorp see nuclear conflict as good for business....although I could be wrong. 

And, yeah - that's probably pretty accurate 😂

Its even funnier if you read it in a cod Trump voice...well played! 

Edited by Flagedgetouch

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