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Scubby

Andrew Hill, You & your RLWC team have cost the RLIF millions!

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I have just done a back of the fag packet calculation about the WC games in Australia and it doesn't make happy reading.

  • So far 17 games in Australia drawing 168,500 spectators at 9,911 per game
  • Attendance in Australia 168,500 of approximately 390,000 seats available (to World Cup SF today) = 43% occupancy
  • That is a whopping 221,500 unsold seats in Australia for this World Cup. At even a basic A$25 per ticket that is A$5.5 million. Wow

I will be amazed if profits exceed A$5m when all said and done. You simply cannot fail to sell 57% of your available seats in a country and deliver success. Today's game was priced at A$40, $70 and $90. 32,000 unsold seats at an average of A$50 is a A$1.6m hit on this game alone (not including hospitality).

Take a bow Andrew Hill and your 2017RLWC team. You have run a World Cup in a country where RL is a major sport and delivered pathetic crowds. Those talking about TV deals, that was signed off 18 months ago. That is a year and a half clear to sell seats and corporates for a major event.

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What do television companies want? Full stadiums.

What gets better contracts from television companies? Full stadiums.

What helps create demand for expensive tickets? Full stadiums.

Maybe work on filling the stadiums before charging people ridiculous money to enter them.

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22 minutes ago, Danny said:

What do television companies want? Full stadiums.

What gets better contracts from television companies? Full stadiums.

What helps create demand for expensive tickets? Full stadiums.

Maybe work on filling the stadiums before charging people ridiculous money to enter them.

Channel 9 says hi

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Collier at RLIF CEO may have fallen short in areas but he must have got a report back at the beginning of October that only around 70-80k tickets had been pre-sold for the whole tournament and thought #### this for a game of soldiers.

The Tongan defections late on gave the New Zealand games a huge late boost. But everyone in the firing line will have known the writing was on the wall here before a ball has even been kicked. The Bulldogs have got an absolute turkey with Hill. 

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Andrew Hill was the NRL's man. You have to ask how hard he and his bosses really wanted to work to deliver profits to the RLIF. 

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5 minutes ago, Scubby said:

... the RL season is over as they did after the grand final! :sleep:

It was never about rugby league for the networks. More so on how they can profit from it

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One of the things I am interested in for our Aussies posters or anybody else who has gone over there is how the community stuff has gone. One of the big successes of 2013 was how the tournament engaged with communities, from the locals supporting individual teams, to the Team 13 volunteers, to the huge community dance teams (sometimes hundreds of kids dancing on the pitch) and things like the Walks through the towns from train stations to the grounds and little things like that.

Has any of that model been used for this World Cup?

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2 hours ago, Scubby said:

I have just done a back of the fag packet calculation about the WC games in Australia and it doesn't make happy reading.

  • So far 17 games in Australia drawing 168,500 spectators at 9,911 per game
  • Attendance in Australia 168,500 of approximately 390,000 seats available (to World Cup SF today) = 43% occupancy
  • That is a whopping 221,500 unsold seats in Australia for this World Cup. At even a basic A$25 per ticket that is A$5.5 million. Wow

I will be amazed if profits exceed A$5m when all said and done. You simply cannot fail to sell 57% of your available seats in a country and deliver success. Today's game was priced at A$40, $70 and $90. 32,000 unsold seats at an average of A$50 is a A$1.6m hit on this game alone (not including hospitality).

Take a bow Andrew Hill and your 2017RLWC team. You have run a World Cup in a country where RL is a major sport and delivered pathetic crowds. Those talking about TV deals, that was signed off 18 months ago. That is a year and a half clear to sell seats and corporates for a major event.

To be slightly less melodramatic :biggrin: the target for this tournament was c450k. So far they have had just over 300k, and if we get a sellout at the final and 30k tomorrow then we will finish on around 385k, around 65k behind target.

It depends what we assumed for profit per person, but if it was around £20 then that could hit the budget by around £1.3m - although the assumption could easily have been double or even treble that!

So I don;t think that the situation financially is as bad as you paint (although we are both basing this on guesswork!) - and it does look like this tournament has been based on TV and sponsorship and hosting rights from a financial point of view. One of the problems we have is that the image of the tournament has been hurt. Of course we have had great sights like PNG, the Tonga games, and things like the Perth and Darwin games looked good, but it has been overshadowed by games like Canberra, Sydney and Cairns etc. Hopefully the next two games being played in front of packed noisy crowds will allow us to finish on a high.

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13 minutes ago, Dave T said:

To be slightly less melodramatic :biggrin: the target for this tournament was c450k. So far they have had just over 300k, and if we get a sellout at the final and 30k tomorrow then we will finish on around 385k, around 65k behind target.

It depends what we assumed for profit per person, but if it was around £20 then that could hit the budget by around £1.3m - although the assumption could easily have been double or even treble that!

So I don;t think that the situation financially is as bad as you paint (although we are both basing this on guesswork!) - and it does look like this tournament has been based on TV and sponsorship and hosting rights from a financial point of view. One of the problems we have is that the image of the tournament has been hurt. Of course we have had great sights like PNG, the Tonga games, and things like the Perth and Darwin games looked good, but it has been overshadowed by games like Canberra, Sydney and Cairns etc. Hopefully the next two games being played in front of packed noisy crowds will allow us to finish on a high.

The target of 450k was pretty pathetic to start with IMO.

My post was particularly in relation to the Australian side of operations. It has current only achieved 43% capacity. And those figures are truly pathetic. If you had followed the ticket prices for Australia against New Zealand many were double the price so every unsold seat at fixtures in Australia has lost more. 

Can you imagine any meeting 2 years ago that didn't budget for sell outs in Game 1 and the Brisbane semi-final?

In 2008, held only in Australia it achieved 293,000 for 18 games at 16,300 per game

In 2017, even with 50k in Brisbane it will only achieve 218,000 for 18 games at 12,111

Sorry Dave, with the feelgood from 2013 and the huge lead in it is pathetic. Absolutely pathetic and has lost a potential fortune for the RLIF.

Edited by Scubby
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Just think how bad it would have been if it weren't for the rise of Tonga and their fans plus the PNG matches at home. If it wasn't for these two things the attendances would have been far worse.

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15 minutes ago, Scubby said:

The target of 450k was pretty pathetic to start with IMO.

My post was particularly in relation to the Australian side of operations. It has current only achieved 43% capacity. And those figures are truly pathetic. If you had followed the ticket prices for Australia against New Zealand many were double the price so every unsold seat at fixtures in Australia has lost more. 

Can you imagine any meeting 2 years ago that didn't budget for sell outs in Game 1 and the Brisbane semi-final?

In 2008, held only in Australia it achieved 293,000 for 18 games at 16,300 per game

In 2017, even with 50k in Brisbane it will only achieve 218,000 for 18 games at 12,111

Sorry Dave, with the feelgood from 2013 and the huge lead in it is pathetic. Absolutely pathetic and has lost a potential fortune for the RLIF.

Hey, don't take any of my post as any kind of endorsement of this tournament, but you do need to be careful on what you are comparing.

Stating 221k unsold seats is a slightly unfair measure, they never claimed they could sell those seats, although I do agree with you that the 450k target was too low - although maybe not! What needs to be considered though is that 2013 was the first time we had hit that level of support, and Aus had never got near that, so they needed to go through their '2013 moment' which they have failed to do.

As a starter we need to compare to budget, and whilst we don't know all the numbers, we do know that the target was 450k tickets sold and $12m profit. That was nudged down to $10m just before the tournament and I have seen $7m mentioned now. 

So we know they have massively missed the 450k target, and it will be interesting to see what profit number they land on at the end. 

I also don't believe they will have budgeted for a sellout in this semi final today. They almost got a bonus by NZ being lined up there, but they got 15k in 2008 for the Kangaroos semi final, I don't think they will have just assumed that they would suddenly get 50k against one of the so-called minnows. I wouldn't be surprised to have seen them expecting 25-30k for today.

On your last line, when saying it has lost a potential fortune, I agree, but they just haven't lost income from 221k seats - they never budgeted for that, so it is not lost.

Missed opportunity is the theme of the world cup and it will be depressing if that is the story of the next four years too.

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4 minutes ago, Dave T said:

Hey, don't take any of my post as any kind of endorsement of this tournament, but you do need to be careful on what you are comparing.

Stating 221k unsold seats is a slightly unfair measure, they never claimed they could sell those seats, although I do agree with you that the 450k target was too low - although maybe not! What needs to be considered though is that 2013 was the first time we had hit that level of support, and Aus had never got near that, so they needed to go through their '2013 moment' which they have failed to do.

As a starter we need to compare to budget, and whilst we don't know all the numbers, we do know that the target was 450k tickets sold and $12m profit. That was nudged down to $10m just before the tournament and I have seen $7m mentioned now. 

So we know they have massively missed the 450k target, and it will be interesting to see what profit number they land on at the end. 

I also don't believe they will have budgeted for a sellout in this semi final today. They almost got a bonus by NZ being lined up there, but they got 15k in 2008 for the Kangaroos semi final, I don't think they will have just assumed that they would suddenly get 50k against one of the so-called minnows. I wouldn't be surprised to have seen them expecting 25-30k for today.

On your last line, when saying it has lost a potential fortune, I agree, but they just haven't lost income from 221k seats - they never budgeted for that, so it is not lost.

Missed opportunity is the theme of the world cup and it will be depressing if that is the story of the next four years too.

This is what Michael Brown of the RLWC said when he announced the games in Brisbane

https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/rugby-league-world-cup-2017-final-set-for-brisbane/

Introducing the draw, RLWC Chief Executive Michael Brown said the Organising Committee made a deliberate decision to take the tournament games to more fans than any World Cup has done before........

The games at Suncorp are expected to sell out attracting tens of thousands of interstate and international visitors and generate up to 120,000 visitor nights for Queensland."

 

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6 minutes ago, Scubby said:

This is what Michael Brown of the RLWC said when he announced the games in Brisbane

https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/rugby-league-world-cup-2017-final-set-for-brisbane/

Introducing the draw, RLWC Chief Executive Michael Brown said the Organising Committee made a deliberate decision to take the tournament games to more fans than any World Cup has done before........

The games at Suncorp are expected to sell out attracting tens of thousands of interstate and international visitors and generate up to 120,000 visitor nights for Queensland."

 

to be fair, that wasn't his quote, that was from Queensland Tourism and Major Events Minister Kate Jones.

Out of all the issues with the tournament, I didn't think today was too horrendous, although I would like to have seen those sitting in the top tier down at the bottom to make it look better.

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5 minutes ago, Dave T said:

to be fair, that wasn't his quote, that was from Queensland Tourism and Major Events Minister Kate Jones.

Out of all the issues with the tournament, I didn't think today was too horrendous, although I would like to have seen those sitting in the top tier down at the bottom to make it look better.

Are we writing Australia off then as not giving a flying fox? Because if 2021 is to get anywhere near 1m spectators it will need 80-100k for semi finals alone bare minimum? Then if it went back to Australia in 2025 (if something happened with the USA due diligence) or 2029 - we will basically be going backwards if they could barely scrape half of that.

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3 minutes ago, Scubby said:

Are we writing Australia off then as not giving a flying fox? Because if 2021 is to get anywhere near 1m specators it will need 80-100k for semi finals alone bare minimum? Then if it went back to Australia in 2025 (if something happened with the USA due diligence) or 2029 - we will basically be going backwards if they could barely scrape half of that.

Look at the RWC - they got 2.2m in 2007. Then in 2011 they got 1.4m. Before getting 2.4m in 2015.

We may never get 1m fans in Oz for World Cups and we may need to face up to that. Australia does bring in other benefits though - things like potentially huge TV deals and sponsorship deals that can dwarf what we can get.

They deserve plenty of criticism for this tournament, as they have missed their own targets, but we don't need to cut off our nose to spite our face because we are frustrated - Australia is still and always will be one of the biggest markets we have for international RL.

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I just can t believe the one million target for 2021! I hope I am wrong but it seems very ambitious to me.

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13 minutes ago, bazzzz65 said:

I just can t believe the one million target for 2021! I hope I am wrong but it seems very ambitious to me.

It is ambitious and the only way to get close to that is going to be in the way of non rugby League fans attending games. That’s why I think it’s a mistake not having a NZ test match in London next year.

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1 minute ago, St Reatham said:

It is ambitious and the only way to get close to that is going to be in the way of non rugby League fans attending games. That’s why I think it’s a mistake not having a NZ test match in London next year.

A good point. The advantage of 2021 is that the government has agreed to underwrite it, so the organizing committee can market aggressively.

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45 minutes ago, Scubby said:

Are we writing Australia off then as not giving a flying fox? Because if 2021 is to get anywhere near 1m spectators it will need 80-100k for semi finals alone bare minimum? Then if it went back to Australia in 2025 (if something happened with the USA due diligence) or 2029 - we will basically be going backwards if they could barely scrape half of that.

We should always be looking to grow crowds, but North America might not do that compared to 2021, but as long as crowds aren’t an embarrassment, there is a lot to be gained  as new market there.

If 2025 does fall through, other options shouldn’t be written off even if crowds will be 50% of 2021. Other emerging territories could be massively boosted. Could be in the Northern Hemisphere (England games at home, but france taking the cast majority with a few other Euro locations) or Southern Hemisphere with oz only having their games and Samoa, Tonga, Fiji and France in New Caledonia all hosting games a la PNG.

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I wish I had seen this before going to the trouble of writing my thoughts as to the reasons on the crowds thread. In a nutshell:

- Smith (far more of a visionary than Greenberg) and Brown bid for and put together the plan for 2017 RLWC;

- when he took over from Smith, Greenberg found that the NRL had "guaranteed" a profit (which he tried to dispute), but that the TV deal covered it pretty much;

- Greenberg also found himself saddled with 7 rather than Fox; 

- when Brown is forced to step down (and a conspiracy theorist could look into that scandal, given how well it suited the NRL), Greenberg puts his people in. They have zero incentive to market games in NRL territory, or for the tournament to be a success for 7;

- as far as the NRL is concerned, going well in PNG is fine, and NZ is by the by;

- there is no incentive to push games at NRL venues. Indeed there is an incentive to fail to do so. Kear's 3rd rate quote was exactly what the NRL wants to read. A closed market (a la NFL and AFL) is a great market for them. 

The more I reflect on the time line and the motivations of the key players, the more what we have seen makes sense. Thus, this thread is based on the false premise that the organisers wanted to maximise profit for the RLIF. They did not, they just wanted to make the guaranteed profit. Not spending on marketing was the perfect way to ensure win win.

 

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1 hour ago, Exiled Wiganer said:

I wish I had seen this before going to the trouble of writing my thoughts as to the reasons on the crowds thread. In a nutshell:

- Smith (far more of a visionary than Greenberg) and Brown bid for and put together the plan for 2017 RLWC;

- when he took over from Smith, Greenberg found that the NRL had "guaranteed" a profit (which he tried to dispute), but that the TV deal covered it pretty much;

- Greenberg also found himself saddled with 7 rather than Fox; 

- when Brown is forced to step down (and a conspiracy theorist could look into that scandal, given how well it suited the NRL), Greenberg puts his people in. They have zero incentive to market games in NRL territory, or for the tournament to be a success for 7;

- as far as the NRL is concerned, going well in PNG is fine, and NZ is by the by;

- there is no incentive to push games at NRL venues. Indeed there is an incentive to fail to do so. Kear's 3rd rate quote was exactly what the NRL wants to read. A closed market (a la NFL and AFL) is a great market for them. 

The more I reflect on the time line and the motivations of the key players, the more what we have seen makes sense. Thus, this thread is based on the false premise that the organisers wanted to maximise profit for the RLIF. They did not, they just wanted to make the guaranteed profit. Not spending on marketing was the perfect way to ensure win win.

 

You have summed up my thoughts pretty much. I feared the worst when Brown resigned as he was brought in from outside to deliver a fantastic model like the Asia Cup. My heart sank when they appointed an NRL insider and it has all unfolded since. Collier leaving is even more convenient for Greenberg. 

Brown was originally looking at venues like the Adelaide Oval and the MCG and got beaten down no doubt. I am sure Brown has got a tale to tell about the goings on at RLWC and NRL HQ.

The NRL also should have been holding Fox and Channel 9 to account for pretty much ignoring the WC all year. Or perhaps it suited the NRL just fine.

Edited by Scubby
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2 hours ago, bazzzz65 said:

I just can t believe the one million target for 2021! I hope I am wrong but it seems very ambitious to me.

Nor can i,crazy target to set, but good luck to them.

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3 hours ago, Dave T said:

Look at the RWC - they got 2.2m in 2007. Then in 2011 they got 1.4m. Before getting 2.4m in 2015.

We may never get 1m fans in Oz for World Cups and we may need to face up to that. Australia does bring in other benefits though - things like potentially huge TV deals and sponsorship deals that can dwarf what we can get.

They deserve plenty of criticism for this tournament, as they have missed their own targets, but we don't need to cut off our nose to spite our face because we are frustrated - Australia is still and always will be one of the biggest markets we have for international RL.

Agree. Let's face it Oz won't pull in the same attendances as the UK/France but should in my view get every 3Rd world cup. They merit it every 12 years. 

Hold two in a row in the UK/France. See if French government are willing to back it... Stranger things have happened. 

A 14 team tournament with 5 from the super groups and 3 from the lesser groups is the way to go I feel. World cup has been a success with this format so far. Generally good matches and few completly one sided blow outs (over 50 point winning margins) 

 

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