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Bearman

Is Russia a threat?

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Why has Russia got such a huge war machine?

Why would they need it for defence? Who is going to attack them and to what end?

Would they attack us and if they did, to what end? Ideologically is not Russia a modern capitalist country?.

General Nick Carter says we should be alarmed, is he right?

Edited by Bearman
Grammar

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It's a big distraction in my opinion.  With the demise of ISIS, there has to be an enemy to distract us.  Russia is no direct military threat to us.

The persistent stories that are being pushed with ever more drama about us intercepting Russian ships and aircraft are just that, drama.  Russian ships have to go past the UK to get to the Mediterranean, how else would they get there except by going the VERY long way round.  We fly planes right along the Russian border when on exercise with our NATO allies yet when they send one ancient old Bear reconnaissance turboprop plane within 250 miles of us it's prominent news in the nationalist newspapers.

They may attack their neighbours, and that's where we should be focussing our view, deterrence.  Speak softly, and carry a big stick.

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12 minutes ago, ckn said:

It's a big distraction in my opinion.  With the demise of ISIS, there has to be an enemy to distract us.  Russia is no direct military threat to us.

I suspect it works both ways; the Russians undoubtedly make similar claims about the USA lead west and their armed forces. Nothing has really changed since the late 40s has it?

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4 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

Nothing has really changed since the late 40s has it?

Yes, there was an ideological difference. Communism v Capitalism. That's no longer an issue.

It seems to me that the Russian people are as free as the Americans ( The rich in both countries can do as they please whilst the poor just have to shift as well as they can).

I cannot imagine the Americans would want to invade and enslave the Russians and why would the Russians want to do do that to anyone?.

The only reason I can see for the sabre rattling is that it is the interest of the military and the arms industry. Am I naive?

 

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17 minutes ago, Bearman said:

 Am I naive?

 

No...no you are not and you know it!  The only good Russian is a dead...well you know how it ends.

The bear is a knowing and wise animal, aleways thinking, aleways plotting, aleways hungry and thirsty!

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1 hour ago, ckn said:

It's a big distraction in my opinion.  With the demise of ISIS, there has to be an enemy to distract us.  Russia is no direct military threat to us.

The persistent stories that are being pushed with ever more drama about us intercepting Russian ships and aircraft are just that, drama.  Russian ships have to go past the UK to get to the Mediterranean, how else would they get there except by going the VERY long way round.  We fly planes right along the Russian border when on exercise with our NATO allies yet when they send one ancient old Bear reconnaissance turboprop plane within 250 miles of us it's prominent news in the nationalist newspapers.

They may attack their neighbours, and that's where we should be focussing our view, deterrence.  Speak softly, and carry a big stick.

I think the above covers off my feelings.

Also would add that we must be careful that we don't fall victim to the phantom menace when assessing threats as communicated to the public by military figures.

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23 minutes ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

 

I think the above covers off my feelings.

Also would add that we must be careful that we don't fall victim to the phantom menace when assessing threats as communicated to the public by military figures.

A friend of mine described our drama at “intercepting” Russian ships going past as being like small dog syndrome where they bark at anything going past their fence. 

The UK military would not go up against Russia on its own. We couldn’t win, even if we quadrupled our military.  We actually could hold them to a stalemate at sea because our subs are better than theirs but that’s it. 

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1 hour ago, Bearman said:

 

The only reason I can see for the sabre rattling is that it is the interest of the military and the arms industry. Am I naive?

 

If you're naive then so am I. 

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2 hours ago, ckn said:

 

They may attack their neighbours, and that's where we should be focussing our view, deterrence.  Speak softly, and carry a big stick.

We in Canada ARE their biggest and closest 'neighbour' and we got some neighbourhood issues!

We don't trust them either on or off the ice.  We ' face off' against them literally every day in the Arctic (thats why we have a permanent 'Ranger Force' up there.).

Go Rangers!

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Back in the early 2000s I went on a training course run by Avaya, the instructor started by introducing himself with some background.

He'd worked for a number of high profile US equipment  manufacturers, 3Com, HP etc and before that he'd been in the Red Army.

Over lunch I quizzed him as to his Red Army role and turned out he was an infantry signaller, a job I'd done for 4 years or so.

In conversation I mentioned we'd been told the Soviet Army was poised to roll through West Germany with a bottle of Vodka in one hand and a half eaten baby in the other, they by contrast had been told we and our political masters the USA were looking for an opportunity to bring down the glorious Socialist republics. At least one of us was being lied to.

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There was a little while there when Russia didn't feel very threatening at all but under Putin it has reverted to type really, in modern terms.  The UK could never take on Russia alone but I don't think that was the point being made by the General.  I think the point he was making was that we need to be ready to help out our eastern European buds because things are getting a bit restless on that border.  I believe we are not withdrawing all our capability from Germany anymore because of this although apparently the plan is to stockpile rather than maintain a sizeable troop presence there.

I think being on our guard over Russia is rather wise.

Edited by Saintslass
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Russia has a mix of knackered old kit combined with capabilities we can't match.

Their air defence, counter battery, electronic warfare are all formidable.  

They are certainly prodding and probing the eastern edges of Europe.  

They are also involved in every election/dispute in europe to various degrees sowing disruption.  

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47 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Russia has a mix of knackered old kit combined with capabilities we can't match.

Their air defence, counter battery, electronic warfare are all formidable.  

They are certainly prodding and probing the eastern edges of Europe.  

They are also involved in every election/dispute in europe to various degrees sowing disruption.  

Yes, much of the thread has concentrated on whether Russia is going to come over and beat us by conventional warfare (nope), when in practice their interests are far better served by cyber, withdrawing gas supplies, buying London property and occasionally wandering into a neighbour's territory. They are a real threat.

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49 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Russia has a mix of knackered old kit combined with capabilities we can't match.

Their air defence, counter battery, electronic warfare are all formidable.  

They are certainly prodding and probing the eastern edges of Europe.  

They are also involved in every election/dispute in europe to various degrees sowing disruption.  

Quantity has a quality of its own when it comes to things like that.

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

Quantity has a quality of its own when it comes to things like that.

Not if it can't deploy from port without a tugboat because it breaks down so often...

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5 minutes ago, Just Browny said:

Yes, much of the thread has concentrated on whether Russia is going to come over and beat us by conventional warfare (nope), when in practice their interests are far better served by cyber, withdrawing gas supplies, buying London property and occasionally wandering into a neighbour's territory. They are a real threat.

This year saw the first gas tanker from Russia arrive in the UK.  That's fine though as capitalism means you discard the expensive for the cheap whether it's handing over strategic power to others or not.

 

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8 minutes ago, Just Browny said:

Yes, much of the thread has concentrated on whether Russia is going to come over and beat us by conventional warfare (nope), when in practice their interests are far better served by cyber, withdrawing gas supplies, buying London property and occasionally wandering into a neighbour's territory. They are a real threat.

The idea that they could cut our seabed internet cables is a bit freaky to me.

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2 minutes ago, ckn said:

This year saw the first gas tanker from Russia arrive in the UK.  That's fine though as capitalism means you discard the expensive for the cheap whether it's handing over strategic power to others or not.

 

And yet, we don't want shale gas and we don't want coal (coz it's environmentally bad) but we haven't yet got up to speed with renewables (which don't work when its too windy or cloudy anyway so aren't reliable), so what are we supposed to do?

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1 minute ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Not if it can't deploy from port without a tugboat because it breaks down so often...

Ah, the Russian Navy, token response at best against the US in open conflict and they know it, they don't even pretend. They don't need much of it though as they can project land power to such an extent.  The Soviet era plans for an European conflict, including taking the UK, relied on land-projected air closing the English Channel then safely get over that way, using modern air superiority to do what the Germans couldn't in WW2; they couldn't leave a safe European port for the US to rally from meaning they couldn't leave the UK standing undefeated.

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9 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

The idea that they could cut our seabed internet cables is a bit freaky to me.

Its not a new idea but something that has been overlooked for years at the same time as dependance on fast internet (for real things not just snapchat and cat videos on youtube) has increased massively.  Same regarding GPS, its now integrated into so many things that if you turned it off (or disrupted it) you would see an effect (Telephone networks,internet,  TV, etc) and not just on your satnav.  

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10 hours ago, ckn said:

It's a big distraction in my opinion.  With the demise of ISIS, there has to be an enemy to distract us.  Russia is no direct military threat to us.

Define direct? Russian military capabilities are a daily direct threat to UK interests in the Cyber domain - fourth domain in a military sense nowadays; this threat emanating from Russia (and a couple of other States) have been on the radar long before ISIS appeared.

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9 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said:

Define direct? Russian military capabilities are a daily direct threat to UK interests in the Cyber domain - fourth domain in a military sense nowadays; this threat emanating from Russia (and a couple of other States) have been on the radar long before ISIS appeared.

By "direct", I mean physical armed conflict dominated by things that go bang.  You're absolutely right, my military thinking is still largely Cold War and post-Cold War between two forces in direct conflict of the type going back to when the first two tribes fought over a nice bit of land.  Modern "direct" conflict can, of course, include cyber warfare.

It astounds me to this day that some highly sensitive parts of our infrastructure are connected to the outside world at all.  I've only ever seen one place do it properly and that was a physical divide between all things that could see the world outside their TEMPEST'ed offices and those that were specifically designed to only see inside.  Separate kit that only hard-coded PCs (no laptops) could access and absolutely nowhere that the two could interact.

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11 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Its not a new idea but something that has been overlooked for years at the same time as dependance on fast internet (for real things not just snapchat and cat videos on youtube) has increased massively.  Same regarding GPS, its now integrated into so many things that if you turned it off (or disrupted it) you would see an effect (Telephone networks,internet,  TV, etc) and not just on your satnav.  

And what's wrong with cat videos on YouTube? :whistle:

But yes, the reasons you give are the reasons I find the idea freaky and yes, it is only lately that I have even given it thought, probably much like most ordinary folk.

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