Roy Haggerty

Championship run-in : irony alert

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Leigh will finish on 32 points. They have a very positive points difference which is only going to get better with 3 more wins. So any other club wanting to be in the top 4 needs to beat this total.

Toronto are in.

Toulouse (Barrow, Halifax and Dewsbury left) have a good points difference and need 3 more points. They should beat Barrow and Dewsbury, so they're in, irrespective of the Halifax result.

Halifax (London, Toulouse and Rochdale left) absolutely have to win at least two of these. Rochdale should be a banker, but they need a win against London or Toulouse.

Featherstone (Swinton, London and Toronto) will likely lose at Toronto and will likely win v Swinton. So they have to beat London to have a chance.

London (Halifax, Featherstone and Barrow) have to win all three.


Likely outcome of those crucial games where these clubs play each other, based on current league positions:

Toulouse (W) v Halifax

London v Halifax (W)

Fev(W) v London

Fev v Toronto (W)

Finishing points:

Toronto - 43
Toulouse - 35
Halifax - 33
Featherstone - 32
Leigh - 32
London - 29


Leigh or Featherstone would then qualify on points difference. You'd expect Leigh to rack up more in their three wins against lower teams than fev will in their two wins against upper teams. Also, Toronto have been handing out big thumpings in Canada, and Featherstone might be in trouble there.

Couple of wildcards.

Halifax play Toulouse in Halifax. Not impossible to see that as a Halifax win. In which case Fax finish on 35, and Toulouse are on 33, so both still seem safe.


On the other hand, Halifax play London at London, and as London will be desperate next week, there could be a loss there. That would be great news for Leigh fans, as it would almost certainly put Halifax out of the picture, without putting London in it, with both finishing on 31 points, and Leigh on 4th without needing to rely on points difference.


Of course, there might be shocks from the lower teams along the way, but it seems unlikely. Which means that for Leigh fans, they'll be cheering on London against Fax, and cheering on Toronto to rack up a big score against Featherstone. It would also be better for Leigh if Toulouse beat Fax.

There is something of a delicious irony that Leigh fans will almost certainly be relying on the three expansion teams of Toronto, Toulouse and London to keep their hopes of a top four place alive against the 'traditional heartland' clubs.

Edited by Roy Haggerty
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I have Toronto, Toulouse, London and Leigh winning all their remaining games, as none of them play each other. Which by my maths puts those four in at the expense of Fax and Fev. 

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I can't see London beating both Fev and Fax. Maybe Fax because it's in London. Which would put Fax out of the top 4 and Leigh in.

Essentially, I'm finding it hard to envisage a set of results which leaves Leigh outside the top 4. The only question seems to be which of Fev or Fax will be joining them, Toronto and Toulouse.

Of course, we'll now see Leigh get beaten by Rochdale, Swinton and Sheffield, and the whole thing becomes moot anyway!

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4 minutes ago, Roy Haggerty said:

I can't see London beating both Fev and Fax. Maybe Fax because it's in London. Which would put Fax out of the top 4 and Leigh in.

Essentially, I'm finding it hard to envisage a set of results which leaves Leigh outside the top 4. The only question seems to be which of Fev or Fax will be joining them, Toronto and Toulouse.

Of course, we'll now see Leigh get beaten by Rochdale, Swinton and Sheffield, and the whole thing becomes moot anyway!

Wow - anti-London or what. You didn't even give them a banker v Barrow, just said they need to win all three, and then said they would lose to both Fax and Fev. Whether you're correct or not is irrelevant as it hasn't happened yet - however you paint a bleak picture for them which is remarkable considering they just drew away to second placed Toulouse. That shows form.

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Always dangerous to predict . Rarely everything pans out as you think , especially late in the season !

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28 minutes ago, BenGilesRL said:

Wow - anti-London or what. You didn't even give them a banker v Barrow, just said they need to win all three, and then said they would lose to both Fax and Fev. Whether you're correct or not is irrelevant as it hasn't happened yet - however you paint a bleak picture for them which is remarkable considering they just drew away to second placed Toulouse. That shows form.

Agree somewhat with your argument here, but they have had some rocky times in recent weeks.

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4 hours ago, BenGilesRL said:

Wow - anti-London or what. You didn't even give them a banker v Barrow, just said they need to win all three, and then said they would lose to both Fax and Fev. Whether you're correct or not is irrelevant as it hasn't happened yet - however you paint a bleak picture for them which is remarkable considering they just drew away to second placed Toulouse. That shows form.

You're reading too much into things. I'm a long-time stalwart of the London RL scene, amateur and professional, having first started playing for London Crusaders' defunct amateur 3rd team at Crystal Palace in 1992, played for East London (first incaranation) for several years, and was then one of the founders of South London Storm, and played for them until 2002 with the occasional second team appearance as recently as 2010! I refereed in the London amateur league for nigh on 15 years until moving out of London two years ago. I've been a season ticket holder at the Broncos, and watched them at Charlton, the Stoop and Brentford. I'd love nothing more than London to return to the top flight (although this time maybe with a bit more stability and support).

My predictions were based solely on current league positions, with a starting assumption that teams will beat the teams below them as now. So I did predict London to beat Barrow, but Fev and Fax are currently above them. Sometimes there's no agenda - it's just a straightforward prediction based on a set criteria.

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  Team Pt 21 22 23 Tot
1 Toronto 37 2 2 2 43
2 Toulouse 29 2 0 2 33
3 Halifax 29 0 2 2 33
4 Featherstone 28 2 2 0 32
5 Leigh 26 2 2 2 32
6 London 27 2 0 2 31
7 Batley 14 0 0 2 16
8 Sheffield 10 2 2 0 14
9 Barrow 13 0 0 0 13
10 Dewsbury 11 0 2 0 13
11 Swinton 8 0 0 0 8
12 Rochdale 8 0 0 0 8
  Totals 240 12 12 12  

Big games are

R21: London v Fax 

R22: Fev v London & Fax v Toulouse

R23: TWP v Fev

The reason the last game is interesting is it could come down to points difference. 

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28 minutes ago, Chronicler of Chiswick said:

However it all turns out, the Championship is a sight more interesting than (un)Super League.

Really??

You don't think the fight for not finishing 9th is not interesting??

4 teams all in a dog fight for 3 positions and separated by 3pts.

If counted KR could still make the top 8 then it's 5 teams for 3 places.

All of which have winnable games, but at the same time some of them could come away with no wins at all.

Surely this is what sport is about?? The unpredicability??  The pressure??

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5 hours ago, davet said:

Really??

You don't think the fight for not finishing 9th is not interesting??

4 teams all in a dog fight for 3 positions and separated by 3pts.

If counted KR could still make the top 8 then it's 5 teams for 3 places.

All of which have winnable games, but at the same time some of them could come away with no wins at all.

Surely this is what sport is about?? The unpredicability??  The pressure??

thing is in the Champ you are excited about who will be among the best 4 teams and who plays better and in SL it's a fight to get out the crapper and not be the worst...that's why one is more exciting than the other.

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4 minutes ago, Krzzystuff said:

thing is in the Champ you are excited about who will be among the best 4 teams and who plays better and in SL it's a fight to get out the crapper and not be the worst...that's why one is more exciting than the other.

Although I get your point, trying to avoid the middle 8's from a SL club's perspective is massive!!

Due to the changes in next seasons structure, any current SL team that is involved in the middle 8's and does indeed go on to be relegated, will have a massive task of trying to be prompted back up at the end of 2019.

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10 hours ago, Chronicler of Chiswick said:

However it all turns out, the Championship is a sight more interesting than (un)Super League.

Not particularly when half of the games are taking the appearance of gimmees - top six beat bottom six almost every time. Would you rush along to see your taem get overhwelmed or win an uncompetitive match?

Half the games are interesting and half are tedious.

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I’m sure sky will show a couple of those pivotal fascinating games ...

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4 hours ago, davet said:

Although I get your point, trying to avoid the middle 8's from a SL club's perspective is massive!!

Due to the changes in next seasons structure, any current SL team that is involved in the middle 8's and does indeed go on to be relegated, will have a massive task of trying to be prompted back up at the end of 2019.

It will almost certainly be easier to be promoted this year than next.

Toronto would already be up.

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Who goes down is getting to be fascinating also. It has become any 2 from 6.

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4 minutes ago, dixiedean said:

Who goes down is getting to be fascinating also. It has become any 2 from 6.

Or 0 from 6

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23 minutes ago, Manx RL said:

Or 0 from 6

Sorry. Meant from the Championship :).

2 really close games this week.

With Batley and Barrow not winning lately, and the other 4 picking up some form and points it is now 6 points separating 6 teams.

 

Edited by dixiedean
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11 hours ago, davet said:

Really??

You don't think the fight for not finishing 9th is not interesting??

4 teams all in a dog fight for 3 positions and separated by 3pts.

If counted KR could still make the top 8 then it's 5 teams for 3 places.

All of which have winnable games, but at the same time some of them could come away with no wins at all.

Surely this is what sport is about?? The unpredicability??  The pressure??

It's like the 8s system is finally delivering exciting meaningful games and then prospect of an amazing qualifying competition. Time to scrap it.

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26 minutes ago, ojx said:

It's like the 8s system is finally delivering exciting meaningful games and then prospect of an amazing qualifying competition. Time to scrap it.

RL people in boadrooms & on forums like this dont really do exciting,its all about woolly blankets for over your knees knitted by the misses,a small flask of tea and a butty for halftime. 

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2 hours ago, ojx said:

It's like the 8s system is finally delivering exciting meaningful games and then prospect of an amazing qualifying competition. Time to scrap it.

The problem is the other two 8's.

Basically 6-8 in SL cannot make the 4 even if they win every game from now on.

Equally, 5-6 in the Champ cannot go down even if they lose them all 100-0.

They need to find a way of tweaking the system. Either re-setting points to zero, halving them, or going 1st place starts on 7 points, 2nd on 6, 3rd on 5, etc.

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This thread proves one of the main criticisms of the 8s - that the focus is almost entirely upon the mediocre. It's getting to the business end of the season, and we should be chatting about who might be champions but we're not. Only the most obsessive of RL obsessives gives a damn who finishes 5th in the second tier competition.

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2 minutes ago, nadera78 said:

This thread proves one of the main criticisms of the 8s - that the focus is almost entirely upon the mediocre. It's getting to the business end of the season, and we should be chatting about who might be champions but we're not. Only the most obsessive of RL obsessives gives a damn who finishes 5th in the second tier competition.

The business end of the season is once the split has happened.

That is why we are taking about the split now, because it is actually fascinating and the perils of current SL sides not making the top 8 or not having the 4 home games in the middle comp is massive and will go a long way to deciding P&R.

And with the top of the SL table looking like it is, is anyone going to overhaul Saints for the LLS and possible GF success??

So why not talk about the what is more exciting at this moment in time and which the conclusion of happens first!!

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3 minutes ago, davet said:

The business end of the season is once the split has happened.

That is why we are taking about the split now, because it is actually fascinating and the perils of current SL sides not making the top 8 or not having the 4 home games in the middle comp is massive and will go a long way to deciding P&R.

And with the top of the SL table looking like it is, is anyone going to overhaul Saints for the LLS and possible GF success??

So why not talk about the what is more exciting at this moment in time and which the conclusion of happens first!!

We're talking about it, because we're RL obsessive. No-one else gives a monkey's, and no other sport would spend so much of its time and attention on the race for a mid-table position in the second tier.

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