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I thought it time to create a new thread given this story:

Anna Soubry has removed all mention of the Tory party from her social media profile, including taking down the Tory emblem from her twitter page and removing the line that says she’s a lifelong one-nation Tory.  The Telegraph reports that 4 Tory backbench MPs and one minister are ready to jump to the new party.

That’ll be fun then!

(Please keep single commentary about party direction on those relevant threads, for example, it’s irrelevant to this thread if Tony Blair was a war criminal to you, or you think the Tory lurch to the right is all so 1930s Germany.  I’ll, of course, allow limited cross-over but please try to be sensible about it, think which thread it’s most related first)

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It would be interesting if some Conservatives jumped before PMQ's. That would take much of the sting away for Corbyn and show the Conservative party is equally ( although in my opinion more due to the erg) divided.

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3 minutes ago, ckn said:

I thought it time to create a new thread given this story:

Anna Soubry has removed all mention of the Tory party from her social media profile, including taking down the Tory emblem from her twitter page and removing the line that says she’s a lifelong one-nation Tory.  The Telegraph reports that 4 Tory backbench MPs and one minister are ready to jump to the new party.

That’ll be fun then!

(Please keep single commentary about party direction on those relevant threads, for example, it’s irrelevant to this thread if Tony Blair was a war criminal to you, or you think the Tory lurch to the right is all so 1930s Germany.  I’ll, of course, allow limited cross-over but please try to be sensible about it, think which thread it’s most related first)

Looking like she's about to jump ship then

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1 minute ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I think Soubry is exactly the wrong Tory needed for a centre left party...

Aside from Brexit she is not centrist as far as I recall.

Perhaps she's seen the light

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I'm pretty sure some cross-party chats occurred before yesterday's announcement. The next few days/weeks will be interesting/fun. 

PS How many days till Brexit? 

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Just now, Wiltshire Rhino said:

I'm pretty sure some cross-party chats occurred before yesterday's announcement. The next few days/weeks will be interesting/fun. 

PS How many days till Brexit? 

38 I believe.  What should have been front page news is now relegated to also-ran stuff.  I understand this new party is exciting and a bit of premium news but it's taking interest from Brexit.

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3 minutes ago, ckn said:

38 I believe.  What should have been front page news is now relegated to also-ran stuff.  I understand this new party is exciting and a bit of premium news but it's taking interest from Brexit.

I wonder what the split of that 38 is between Labour and Conservative? 

On the last part I suspect there is a bit of brexit fatigue in the media (and probably the country).

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5 minutes ago, ckn said:

38 I believe.  What should have been front page news is now relegated to also-ran stuff.  I understand this new party is exciting and a bit of premium news but it's taking interest from Brexit.

It isn't (yet) a new party.

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Just now, RidingPie said:

I wonder what the split of that 38 is between Labour and Conservative? 

On the last part I suspect there is a bit of brexit fatigue in the media (and probably the country).

38 days to Brexit, not MPs ready to shift.

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2 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

sorry I miss read that completely.... me being dumb ...again

It's early in the morning. Go have a cup of tea and you'll be fine! 😀 

Edited by Wiltshire Rhino

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Just now, The Future is League said:

Yet 😉

As a point of interest, if they get more than 35 MPs, they dislodge the SNP from their third party status with all the perks and benefits that brings.  They'd go from having to get Bercow's attention to ask things of a PM/minister to having guaranteed statement time and questions.

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1 minute ago, Wiltshire Rhino said:

It's early in the morning. Go have a cup of tea and you'll be fine! 😀 

I have honestly done just that!

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Just now, ckn said:

As a point of interest, if they get more than 35 MPs, they dislodge the SNP from their third party status with all the perks and benefits that brings.  They'd go from having to get Bercow's attention to ask things of a PM/minister to having guaranteed statement time and questions.

We possibly could be in for some interesting few weeks

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I don't see the point, surely all that will happen is come the next election they'll be ousted as the faithful votes for one of the main parties.  Plus if they start pushing for a peoples vote whilst refusing to have by elections having quit, well it doesn't seem to be a great look to me!

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

As a point of interest, if they get more than 35 MPs, they dislodge the SNP from their third party status with all the perks and benefits that brings.  They'd go from having to get Bercow's attention to ask things of a PM/minister to having guaranteed statement time and questions.

In fairness I'd think Umuuna, Berger or Sourby (potentially) could do far better than Corbyn at PMQ's. That said I think 35 MP's is a stretch unless Labour completely disintegrates.

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6 minutes ago, shrek said:

I don't see the point, surely all that will happen is come the next election they'll be ousted as the faithful votes for one of the main parties.  Plus if they start pushing for a peoples vote whilst refusing to have by elections having quit, well it doesn't seem to be a great look to me!

I can see your point but I saw one commentary yesterday that many are quite senior and wouldn't mind too much if they lost their job.  Such are the perks of MPs' pensions and pay-offs if they're voted out.

Also, think of it this way, 5 Tory MPs shifting breaks the Tory/DUP majority to the point that it's barely sustainable, any more and they're into minority government regardless of what happens.  It makes a confidence vote less likely to fail and the government have to think very carefully what they're intending to put through.

The absolute best-case is that such a shift encourages Theresa May to ask the EU for an Article 50 extension, gets it then calls an election.  The absolute worst case is that she takes her toys home and calls an election without extension because that'd guarantee a no-deal Brexit.

It's a mightily big gamble.

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6 minutes ago, shrek said:

I don't see the point, surely all that will happen is come the next election they'll be ousted as the faithful votes for one of the main parties.  Plus if they start pushing for a peoples vote whilst refusing to have by elections having quit, well it doesn't seem to be a great look to me!

None of it is a great look but that's, fundamentally, because our politics is a mess.

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

I can see your point but I saw one commentary yesterday that many are quite senior and wouldn't mind too much if they lost their job.  Such are the perks of MPs' pensions and pay-offs if they're voted out.

Also, think of it this way, 5 Tory MPs shifting breaks the Tory majority to the point that it's barely sustainable, any more and they're into minority government regardless of what happens.  It makes a confidence vote less likely to fail and the government have to think very carefully what they're intending to put through.

The absolute best-case is that such a shift encourages Theresa May to ask the EU for an Article 50 extension, gets it then calls an election.  The absolute worst case is that she takes her toys home and calls an election without extension because that'd guarantee a no-deal Brexit.

It's a mightily big gamble.

I was thinking more of the party political clones that will replace them rather than them losing there jobs.  If either or both parties can ride it out till the next election then the status quo will be resumed as Maybots and Corybinistas get parachuted in.

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2 minutes ago, ckn said:

As a point of interest, if they get more than 35 MPs, they dislodge the SNP from their third party status with all the perks and benefits that brings.  They'd go from having to get Bercow's attention to ask things of a PM/minister to having guaranteed statement time and questions.

That is completely unacceptable. If they do reach 36 MPs they should all be made to face a by-election as they were elected as Labour or Tory candidates. Then they  could have the 'perks' if they are really the third biggest party.

 

 

If I remember correctly,of all the MPs who defected to the SDP only Bruce Douglas -Mann faced a by-election and he lost. 

 

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Just now, bazzzz65 said:

That is completely unacceptable. If they do reach 36 MPs they should all be made to face a by-election as they were elected as Labour or Tory candidates. Then they  could have the 'perks' if they are really the third biggest party.

 

 

If I remember correctly,of all the MPs who defected to the SDP only Bruce Douglas -Mann faced a by-election and he lost. 

 

We'll start the by elections in Sheffield Hallam and go from there.

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1 minute ago, bazzzz65 said:

That is completely unacceptable. If they do reach 36 MPs they should all be made to face a by-election as they were elected as Labour or Tory candidates. Then they  could have the 'perks' if they are really the third biggest party.

 

 

If I remember correctly,of all the MPs who defected to the SDP only Bruce Douglas -Mann faced a by-election and he lost. 

 

I thought we elected people not a party list? If we did you'd have an excellent point but constitutionally they certainly don't have to.

Interestingly I've always felt a change of PM should trigger a General Election regardless of which side does it.

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Of the 7 announced so far 5 have massive majorities which in the normal scheme of things means that they will be lose their jobs as MPs at the next election.

One has an OK majority so again no change likely there

The 7th has a small majority so if she stands Labour could well lose a seat 

Unless things change & that is definitely possible in the current climate the medium term direct changes are minimal although the damage to Corbyn and Labour and by contagion to the Conservatives & May will take a while to show

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