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Private Baldrick

Peterborough By Election

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Just 7 days until this crucial by election and a return to Westminster politics. What an interesting one it should be too.

Recently a 2 horse race between Conservative and Labour, but will the 2 main parties EU hangover still be being felt?

The Lib Dem and Green 'surge', will that be slowed by each party taking votes off each other?

The Brexit Party, still devoid of any domestic policies, will they sweep all before them?

Obviously Change UK's failure to select a candidate in time will see their credibility take a blow in not standing at all.

What are your hopes and/or forecasts for the result?  

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Up until a few months ago it was a 2 horse race, but the Lib Dems and brexit party will take votes of both you would imagine.

The Brexit Party still has no manifesto, so that might concern some voters.  

I think the tories fancied their chances of winning the seat back but their polling has tanked quite suddenly over the last few months.  (Tory and labour national polling was remarkably steady until very recently).  


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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At the europeans -

D7j4CaiXkAA7gCd.png


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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Brexit Party are 1/4 or 2/9 with the bookies. I don't see any reason to disagree with that.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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11 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

At the europeans -

D7j4CaiXkAA7gCd.png

A similar breakdown in the by election would certainly ruffle a few feathers! Tory leadership contenders will be pushed further to the right that's for sure!

I honestly think it will be a lot closer than the EU vote, taking into account local issues, tribal loyalties etc. 

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3 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

I honestly think it will be a lot closer than the EU vote, taking into account local issues, tribal loyalties etc. 

Conventional theory would say so, but the last couple of years have been a test of convention!

Turnout could be a factor, though 2nd election in a couple of weeks might see a low turnout (by elections don't generally have a great turnout anyway).  

15 candidates in the running.  

The Labour and Lib Dems seem to going on mainly local issues.  Tories a mix of local plus brexit (he's for a no deal if the deal fails).  Brexit Party going on (surprise) brexit, with the candidate, from what i've seen, reluctant to give an opinion on pretty much any other subject.


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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18 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Conventional theory would say so, but the last couple of years have been a test of convention!

Turnout could be a factor, though 2nd election in a couple of weeks might see a low turnout (by elections don't generally have a great turnout anyway).  

15 candidates in the running.  

The Labour and Lib Dems seem to going on mainly local issues.  Tories a mix of local plus brexit (he's for a no deal if the deal fails).  Brexit Party going on (surprise) brexit, with the candidate, from what i've seen, reluctant to give an opinion on pretty much any other subject.

I don't know if party members of other parties have had anything different but I've had absolutely nothing about campaigning in Peterborough. I'm getting far more about leadership elections. The field is being left entirely open for the Brexit Party to get their MP.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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31 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Brexit Party going on (surprise) brexit, with the candidate, from what i've seen, reluctant to give an opinion on pretty much any other subject.

And he knows #### all about that judging by this interview.

I was listening to it as it went out; truly cringe worthy.

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"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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“What do you want?”

”Brexit!”

”What about after Brexit?”

”More Brexit!”

”What about the NHS or any other issue?”

”Brexit will save us all!”

Voting Brexit Party as a protest in the EU elections is acceptable. Voting for it based on a single word and nothing behind it, not even on what Brexit means and how they’d do it is just daft. I’d even prefer people voted Tory as at least they have local folk doing local politics. 

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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21 minutes ago, ckn said:

“What do you want?”

”Brexit!”

”What about after Brexit?”

”More Brexit!”

”What about the NHS or any other issue?”

”Brexit will save us all!”

Voting Brexit Party as a protest in the EU elections is acceptable. Voting for it based on a single word and nothing behind it, not even on what Brexit means and how they’d do it is just daft. I’d even prefer people voted Tory as at least they have local folk doing local politics. 

If this was my constituency I would certainly be reverting back to my home party. The EU elections was my protest vote, but the constituency MP election is far too important to be contemplating voting for a party that as yet has no policies. The usual local issues and where the candidates stand on certain subjects outweighs the tub thumping chant of Brexit means Brexit.

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Presumably the new Brexit Party MP, when asked any tough questions, can just say: "We have only been a party for eight weeks - we haven't got a policy yet. On anything."

 


I can confirm 30+ less sales for Scotland vs Italy at Workington, after this afternoons test purchase for the Tonga match, £7.50 is extremely reasonable, however a £2.50 'delivery' fee for a walk in purchase is beyond taking the mickey, good luck with that, it's cheaper on the telly.

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28 minutes ago, Just Browny said:

Presumably the new Brexit Party MP, when asked any tough questions, can just say: "We have only been a party for eight weeks - we haven't got a policy yet. On anything."

 

Or, "I don't know, you'll have to ask Nigel."

I know, that would require honesty, so it's unlikely.


Rethymno Rugby League Appreciation Society

Founder (and, so far, only) member.

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Some funny things in the report (to me anyway!)


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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Are we all ready for a day of the grinning Farage tomorrow then? Will Labour hold on to the seat? Will the Tories take it back? Will the Lib Dem surge break through in this predominantly leave area? Let's see who the good people of Peterborough return as their MP. 

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It's not even an issue. The Brexit Party will win pretty comfortably.

Which changes not one thing about Brexit.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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16 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

It could do, especially when you consider the Cooper Bill that forced the PM to seek an extension was carried by 1 vote in Parliament.

The core maths doesn't change, no matter how much you dearly wish there to be a Brexit Party surge to power based on getting a third of the vote in the Euro elections and winning a by election.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The core maths doesn't change, no matter how much you dearly wish there to be a Brexit Party surge to power based on getting a third of the vote in the Euro elections and winning a by election.

I have never claimed that I want a Brexit Party surge. I was just pointing out that some of the votes in Parliament have been close and any extra support in either direction could be decisive.

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7 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

I have never claimed that I want a Brexit Party surge.

Odd. I'd have thought that someone who voted for them and had their badge as their avatar would be quite keen to get as much Brexit Party influence as possible.

What a strange cove you are.

But, anyway, the core maths doesn't change. So when the Brexit Party wins today nothing is altered.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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9 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Odd. I'd have thought that someone who voted for them and had their badge as their avatar would be quite keen to get as much Brexit Party influence as possible.

What a strange cove you are.

But, anyway, the core maths doesn't change. So when the Brexit Party wins today nothing is altered.

I wasn't the only one at the EU elections voting for a different party to what I would normally vote for. Some others who did the same thing are pretty well known you know.

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14 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

But, anyway, the core maths doesn't change. So when the Brexit Party wins today nothing is altered.

I think it's more about the message that will have been sent out regarding how the ongoing Brexit situation might affect a General Election. The results from the 2017 General Election in Peterborough were:

Lab 22,950

Con 22,343

LD 1,597

Green 848

UKIP, as you'd expect after the referendum had produced a Leave vote, had virtually disappeared.

For the Brexit Party to come effectively out of nowhere and overturn that 2017 situation, would in my opinion be very significant.

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18 minutes ago, 17 stone giant said:

I think it's more about the message that will have been sent out regarding how the ongoing Brexit situation might affect a General Election. The results from the 2017 General Election in Peterborough were:

Lab 22,950

Con 22,343

LD 1,597

Green 848

UKIP, as you'd expect after the referendum had produced a Leave vote, had virtually disappeared.

For the Brexit Party to come effectively out of nowhere and overturn that 2017 situation, would in my opinion be very significant.

It was predicted on here a few years ago. That the promises of Brexit were undeliverable and it would lead to a feeling of betrayal was inevitable. I thought it would be a reinvigorated UKIP rather than a new party. 


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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8 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

It was predicted on here a few years ago. That the promises of Brexit were undeliverable and it would lead to a feeling of betrayal was inevitable. I thought it would be a reinvigorated UKIP rather than a new party. 

The Brexit party is a re-branded UKIP. Previously UKIP = Farage, now Brexit party = Farage.


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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