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EU Leave: Prediction Thread


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In a year's time, everyone will say that they were proven to be right in their post-referendum predictions.  Just to be awkward, let's post a thread on it.

- The main beneficaries will be UKIP and the far right, when the Conservative party cannot deliver tariff-free free-trade, and unrestricted movement of British citizens will border control.  Indeed, I cannot see their backers accepting less cheap Labour.

- The Labour party will fail to make the most of it.   UKIP bite into their vote.

- We will not really leave the EU, at most, we will be in the EEA with a worse deal that before.  This will be proclaimed as a triumph, but most will disagree.

- There will be an awkward moments, as the EU has the UK over a barrel as soon as negotiations begin.  The UK's bargaining chip is not to begin.  The civil service use the chaos at the top of British politics to delay.

- Mick Gedhill's workers' utopia will be no closer.

- The economy will be rather poor, but the pound will level out once the initial panic is over.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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I think either -

 

1) We will not really leave the EU as we sign up to financial services passporting agreements, the economic market and other bits and pieces (probably not environmental or worker's rights) ... this would seem to be Boris and Gove's preference.

 

Or

 

2) We actually won't have left because people realise what a stupid idea it is, that the Leave campaign fibbed about things like the £350M going to the NHS (not that Remain did better on the honesty stakes) and there is a general election where a pro Europe Lib Dem/Lab coalition wins (the fact that Article 50 has not been revoked makes this possible).

 

Who the ###### knows though.

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There will be a general election and both Labour and the Tories will have a manifesto pledge not to invoke clause 50.

The winner will claim they have a newer more recent mandate than the referendum as the legitimacy to ignore last week's decision.

Ron Banks

Midlands Hurricanes and Barrow

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There will be a general election and both Labour and the Tories will have a manifesto pledge not to invoke clause 50.

The winner will claim they have a newer more recent mandate than the referendum as the legitimacy to ignore last week's decision.

I suggested exactly that today and was told I was talking sheeite

"I love our club, absolutely love it". (Overton, M 2007)

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I suggested exactly that today and was told I was talking sheeite

Nobody wants to be the person to push the A50 button. Well apart from Farage.

Homer: How is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some old stuff out of my brain. Remember when I took that home winemaking course, and I forgot how to drive?

[

i]Mr. Burns: Woah, slow down there maestro. There's a *New* Mexico?[/i]
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There will be a general election and both Labour and the Tories will have a manifesto pledge not to invoke clause 50.

The winner will claim they have a newer more recent mandate than the referendum as the legitimacy to ignore last week's decision.

very plausible. I don't think we will be any closer to leaving. I do think the recent events has created the need for a new party and think it may well happen. Strictly centre ground with clearly defined policies

Caught by a feckin speed camera. try these I did and it saved me a heap o money and penalty points.

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We'll leave the EU and join the EEA with a similar deal to Norway, retain free movement, EU legislation and pretty much everything we already have from the EU without having any representation or influence over the organization or any of the perks we enjoyed before, the Tory government will proclaim this as a success and the Leave voters will believe them and think we're better off.

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I think what Evil Homer said above is the most likely outcome, apart from perhaps the last bit,  the necessity to retain free movement will be a hard sell to remain voters.

 

Of course, plenty can happen in 12 months to change things in Europe. Voting ourselves into a recession may make things worse elsewhere in Europe, maybe the thing that pushes Spain or Greece over the edge. ISIS & Russia haven't gone away, there are still large numbers of refugees fleeing the chaos we've helped bring about in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Iraq etc.

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If Boris or May win PM race - Leave EU. Join the EEA.  Retain free movement, free trade and retain EU rules.  Pay more.  Lose Veto.  Lose rebate.

 

Stay in the ECHR.

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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- After all the knob waving, threats and counter threats the sensible suits (civil servants) will strike a deal

- Most people in the UK wont see any noticeable difference to their lives

- We'll sign a free trade agreement with the EU

- In return we'll probably agree to free movement but with some restrictions such as the right to not admit undesirables (criminals) or those who pose a threat to our national security (extreemists or suspect terrorists) and restricted benefits until they have paid in a certain amount to our system before they can fully access all the benefits.

- We'll still make some financial contribution to the EU coffers but it will be considerably less than we currently pay and will be something along the lines of the Norwegian model where its a percentage of our GDP.

- The EU court will no longer have supremacy over our high court but in return we'll agree to abide by some rules and regulations where its in the interests of both parties ( such as environment & climate change rules)

 

5 years from now all this panic and predictions of doom will be a distant memory

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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We'll adopt the Norway model with free movement, following EU rules, continuing to pay EU contributions etc. People will complain that it wasn't what they voted for, the Government will point out they only voted to leave the EU and not on anything that happens afterwards. People will say that it is not fair that we have to follow EU rules when we don't have any say. The Government will point out that we did have a say, as we probably had more opt outs than anyone and could veto legislation that was felt was not in Britains interest.

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If the Tories do a EEA deal with no immigration limits what will the Tory Leave voters do? Vote for UKIP? I doubt it - they always return to the fold as they are, by instinct, conservative. As Liverpool Rover says, we only voted for leaving the EU, not for any other option and they can deliver that by signing back up to an EEA deal with maybe a few tweaks. I really can't see them getting anywhere on free movement but they may be able to get some stuff regarding benefit payments.

 

Labour inner city voters will go further to UKIP. UKIP may increase the number of seats but only at Labour's expense and will never be able to topple the Tories. This is a win-win for the Conservatives.

 

Lib Dems may get a bit of a bounce as pro-Remainers go to the only party that has a solid "Remain" position but again they pose no real threat.

 

In the end we won't really have left the EU at all - immigration levels won't change and by signing up to the EEA we won't be able to make all these great deals with other countries worldwide. We will pay less to the EU but we'll get less back in grants - let's then see how generous the government is to the "Northern Powerhouse" and the Cornish/Welsh farmers.

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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I agree.

I suspect you might change your approach as soon as any single incident seemed to vindicate a vote for Brexit. We have had no such incident so far.

I can confirm 30+ less sales for Scotland vs Italy at Workington, after this afternoons test purchase for the Tonga match, £7.50 is extremely reasonable, however a £2.50 'delivery' fee for a walk in purchase is beyond taking the mickey, good luck with that, it's cheaper on the telly.

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We'll adopt the Norway model with free movement, following EU rules, continuing to pay EU contributions etc. People will complain that it wasn't what they voted for, the Government will point out they only voted to leave the EU and not on anything that happens afterwards. People will say that it is not fair that we have to follow EU rules when we don't have any say. The Government will point out that we did have a say, as we probably had more opt outs than anyone and could veto legislation that was felt was not in Britains interest.

And UKIP will benefit from being able to claim the promise of sunshine and rainbows has been betrayed, politicians lack the courage of the people etc

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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I really can't see them getting anywhere on free movement but they may be able to get some stuff regarding benefit payments.

 

 

Most sensible Brexiter's recognised that immigration wasn't all bad, and is actually a good think if controlled.

While I agree that full control is highly unlikely if we want free trade I think most people (myself included) would be happy to continue with allowing free movement for EU citizens but with restrictions for undesirables (criminals) and no automatic right to benefits until they've paid in a certain amount

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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While I agree that full control is highly unlikely if we want free trade I think most people (myself included) would be happy to continue with allowing free movement for EU citizens but with restrictions for undesirables (criminals) and no automatic right to benefits until they've paid in a certain amount

 

And the chances of that? I am sure the Swiss have been mugged off by the EU trying to get something similar after their referendum.

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 free movement for EU citizens but with restrictions for undesirables (criminals) and no automatic right to benefits until they've paid in a certain amount

 

We could have done the latter inside the EU, if we'd chosen to, so I can't see that being a big obstacle.

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We could have done the latter inside the EU, if we'd chosen to, so I can't see that being a big obstacle.

No we couldn't. Countries like Poland made it abundantly clear that this was one of their 'Red Lines' and would veto any UK agreement that imposed any restriction on movement or benefits. Cameron put it on the table as part of his renegotiations but it was flatly rejected.

 

Outside the EU its a legitimate area for negotiation, inside the EU it was a complete non-starter.

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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But immigrants don't have rights to benefits in Greece until they have paid into the system. Believe me, I'm not even entitled to free health care yet because I only had 67 'stamps' for 2015. I should be entitled to it next year as I should easily get the 100 stamps needed. So that's one benefit dealt with - not mandatory in the EU. Dole money is another one for which you have to have the requisite number of stamps (125 in the year to March in order to receive dole that summer). So why can the Greeks restrict benefits like this? I think this is down to the way Greeks themselves are treated when it comes to benefits. It is one rule for all - Greeks and immigrants, both! To make this work in the UK, I think the UK would have to switch to contributions-based social welfare system rather than the current residence-based one. But it can be done.

Rethymno Rugby League Appreciation Society

Founder (and, so far, only) member.

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But immigrants don't have rights to benefits in Greece until they have paid into the system. Believe me, I'm not even entitled to free health care yet because I only had 67 'stamps' for 2015. I should be entitled to it next year as I should easily get the 100 stamps needed. So that's one benefit dealt with - not mandatory in the EU. Dole money is another one for which you have to have the requisite number of stamps (125 in the year to March in order to receive dole that summer). So why can the Greeks restrict benefits like this? I think this is down to the way Greeks themselves are treated when it comes to benefits. It is one rule for all - Greeks and immigrants, both! To make this work in the UK, I think the UK would have to switch to contributions-based social welfare system rather than the current residence-based one. But it can be done.

 

 

You can't treat anyone different to how you treat your own.  So if your citizens get free healthcare with no contributions then EU migrants do too.  Same with benefits, if your own citizens get 'X' then any EU immigrants can get them too.

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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You can't treat anyone different to how you treat your own.  So if your citizens get free healthcare with no contributions then EU migrants do too.  Same with benefits, if your own citizens get 'X' then any EU immigrants can get them too.

 

Exactly.  So if the UK had defined its benefits system such that you had to pay in a certain amount of contributions before you could get anything out, like most other EU countries already do, we would already be in the situation that Saint Toppy described. It is a system that I assume would appeal to much of the Conservative Party in any case.

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You can't treat anyone different to how you treat your own.  So if your citizens get free healthcare with no contributions then EU migrants do too.  Same with benefits, if your own citizens get 'X' then any EU immigrants can get them too.

 

I thought that was what I said. :blink:

 

You're right, though.

Rethymno Rugby League Appreciation Society

Founder (and, so far, only) member.

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