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"No" Mr Renzi


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As Italy voted 60/40 in favour of a no vote, and PM Renzi resigns after what has morphed into an anti establishment vote; what does this mean for the euro and wider EU?

Well I'm not going to say its the end of it all for the Euro or the EU, as actually the vote wasn't on that particular issue. Where they are threatened is through what the implications could mean: A Five Star government? A caretaker regime? Subsequent euro weakening?

All of this happens in the backdrop of Italy's growing debt problem which is second only to Greece as a ratio to GDP.

Again, interesting times ahead.

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Italy's GDP per capita is actually less than in 2004 (not even inflation adjusted, the actual figure) so it's understandable that people would reject the failed policies that have got them here. The beginning, middle and end of the problems is Italy's Euro membership so hopefully the 5 star movement can take them out

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After Brexit this is another nice kick in the nads for the wannabe king of Europe Juncker.

 

The current Italian government will no doubt see out the last year or so of their term, but there's little hope of any improvement in their position between now and then meaning a change is almost inevitable.

Italy wont leave the EU like Britain but it could sound the death knell of the Euro

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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That is just not true. The beginning of the problems was actually a spending binge by the government in the 80s. In 1999, when Italy officially joined the Euro, it's debt to GDP ratio was already 126%. For comparison, Britain's in 2010 with a recession and a banking bailout having driven up debt, was 78.4%. This, in combination with miniscule growth, massive productivity issues and significant issues with governance and corruption, is a big part of why Italy's economy is struggling. 

 

Please don't state things like this on the forum; it's all the fault of Juncker and the evil EU. 

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That is just not true. The beginning of the problems was actually a spending binge by the government in the 80s. In 1999, when Italy officially joined the Euro, it's debt to GDP ratio was already 126%. For comparison, Britain's in 2010 with a recession and a banking bailout having driven up debt, was 78.4%. This, in combination with miniscule growth, massive productivity issues and significant issues with governance and corruption, is a big part of why Italy's economy is struggling. 

 

As much as you are right to cite those figures, the point bowes I think is trying to highlight is that the Euro was often lauded as the saviour for the PIIGS nations economies. Indeed the pound was supposed to become worthless if we didn't join.

 

As ever, there are always a multitude of factors with varying degrees of importance.

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Maybe that was the point he was trying to make...but what he actually said was essentially that all of Italy's economic problems are related to the Euro. There's a big difference between "the Euro wasn't as economically beneficial as anticipated for some countries", , and "The beginning, middle and end of the problems is Italy's Euro membership". One is difficult to disagree with, the other is sufficiently inaccurate to just look like a poor attempt to put most of the blame on the EU for something which hasn't been caused by the EU. 

The Euro has not been good for Italy.  In the past if they had economic problems they'd devalue the lira, that's how it reached 3000 to the pound just before the Euro started.  They have been unable to do this with the Euro.  Italy produced a lot of high quality engineered goods, but the price became uneconomic under the Euro.  The beneficiaries of the Euro have been Germany.  Their engineered products are at least the equivalent in quality to Italy's and they are more efficient.   The Euro should have force efficiency on the Italians, but it doesn't seem to have worked.  They hate the Euro.

The market in which I was involved until my retirement was dominated for years by Italian manufacturers but after  they joined the Euro they have lost much of this market to China and Korea.

Anyone who has visited Italy for holidays will notice immediately how much less far a Euro goes compared say to Spain or Portugal.   I wouldn't be surprised to see Italy take the line of least resistance and abandon the Euro.

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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I think there have been predictions of the end of the Euro on here since the forum began.

 

So far its proved to be remarkably resilient.  Maybe this is the start of the end? 

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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I think there have been predictions of the end of the Euro on here since the forum began.

So far its proved to be remarkably resilient. Maybe this is the start of the end?

Keep predicting disaster. Eventually you'll have to be right.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Keep predicting disaster. Eventually you'll have to be right.

 

Keep demanding referenda. Eventually, you'll get the result you want.

 

!!! It works both ways !!!

Rethymno Rugby League Appreciation Society

Founder (and, so far, only) member.

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Keep predicting disaster. Eventually you'll have to be right.

The Italians were unhappy with the Euro long before the recession.  I remember talking to a guy in 2005. He said before the Euro the average Italian would take his family out once a week for a slap up meal. That apparently was their custom.  Now he was lucky if he could afford to buy them pizza.

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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The Italians were unhappy with the Euro long before the recession.  I remember talking to a guy in 2005. He said before the Euro the average Italian would take his family out once a week for a slap up meal. That apparently was their custom.  Now he was lucky if he could afford to buy them pizza.

Before Brexit & Trump though people were unwilling to rock the boat. These 2 events have shown people that they can make a change and they don't have to just put up with what they've got from the establishment.

 

Renzi was one of the strongest supporters of the EU dream shared by the likes of Juncker. None of those likely to replace him come election time in a year or so (or sooner) have quite the same passion for the EU. Similarly in France none of the front runners have any great passion for the EU and there's also a very real chance of a Eurosceptic winning in Holland.

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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It has been a long while since I opened a copy of the Mail or the Express but I assume that, from page 2 onwards, it is just a load of articles slagging off Juncker. It is the only possible explanation for so much focus on one bloke with a fairly limited role and power base.

'Eurosceptic' is just another one of those fun euphemisms like 'alt-right' used to describe extreme right-wingers. If Toppy and co really are hankering for victories for the likes of Hofer, Le Pen and Wilders then we, as a continent, are in serious trouble.

I can confirm 30+ less sales for Scotland vs Italy at Workington, after this afternoons test purchase for the Tonga match, £7.50 is extremely reasonable, however a £2.50 'delivery' fee for a walk in purchase is beyond taking the mickey, good luck with that, it's cheaper on the telly.

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It has been a long while since I opened a copy of the Mail or the Express but I assume that, from page 2 onwards, it is just a load of articles slagging off Juncker. It is the only possible explanation for so much focus on one bloke with a fairly limited role and power base.

'Eurosceptic' is just another one of those fun euphemisms like 'alt-right' used to describe extreme right-wingers. If Toppy and co really are hankering for victories for the likes of Hofer, Le Pen and Wilders then we, as a continent, are in serious trouble.

I've never attempted to hide my dislike of the EU as an institution or what it stands for and what its aims are (the creation of a federal Europe under 1 leader and 1 currency). Any democratic election that weakens the position of the EU and hastens its demise is fine by me.

I'd be very happy to see the EU crumble and a return to the pre EU parliament days where the EU is just a collection of countries working under a trade framework and cooperating on other individual projects as & when they want to. No central parliament, no sponging beurocrats, no contributions & subsidies, no imposition of directives, every country with an equal voice and the ability to pick & choose what they participate in.

 

If the voters of France, Holland or whoever choose to elect a leader with right wing views then that's their choice, its because they feel that person is right for them. Your opinion, mine, or anyone else's outside that country are totally irrelevant because its nothing to do with us.

 

Juncker's comments before our referendum showed that interference by outsiders strengthens anti-EU feelings, and his recent comments about not wanting to see other countries allow referendum compounds this. Juncker is so desperate to cling to power and fulfil his federalist dream that he and the EU are willing to interfere in individual countries democratic process in an attempt to get a result that they want. He's too arrogant to see that its this very interference that people are railing against. The fact that the EU is also seen a corrupt, beurocratic, incompetent and unable to deal with any crisis just compounds people's distrust of them.

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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Juncker's comments before our referendum showed that interference by outsiders strengthens anti-EU feelings

 

Whereas in Austria the anti-EU candidate felt that Farage's interjections damaged him.

 

Funny old world.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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I've never attempted to hide my dislike of the EU as an institution or what it stands for and what its aims are (the creation of a federal Europe under 1 leader and 1 currency). Any democratic election that weakens the position of the EU and hastens its demise is fine by me.

I'd be very happy to see the EU crumble and a return to the pre EU parliament days where the EU is just a collection of countries working under a trade framework and cooperating on other individual projects as & when they want to. No central parliament, no sponging beurocrats, no contributions & subsidies, no imposition of directives, every country with an equal voice and the ability to pick & choose what they participate in.

 

If the voters of France, Holland or whoever choose to elect a leader with right wing views then that's their choice, its because they feel that person is right for them. Your opinion, mine, or anyone else's outside that country are totally irrelevant because its nothing to do with us.

 

Juncker's comments before our referendum showed that interference by outsiders strengthens anti-EU feelings, and his recent comments about not wanting to see other countries allow referendum compounds this. Juncker is so desperate to cling to power and fulfil his federalist dream that he and the EU are willing to interfere in individual countries democratic process in an attempt to get a result that they want. He's too arrogant to see that its this very interference that people are railing against. The fact that the EU is also seen a corrupt, beurocratic, incompetent and unable to deal with any crisis just compounds people's distrust of them.

So you'd be happy to for France and Germany to resume their rivalry of at 100 years?  With Britain standing on the sidelines making sure neither of them got too strong.   Years of non stop war with Germany invading France and vice versa.  France invading Spain, Portugal and Italy?  The French provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, changed hands between France and Germany four times in 70 years.  The whole of Eastern Europe vulnerable once again to Russia.   The Balkans a tinder box, primed to set off another world war.  Is that really what you want?  Are you out of your mind?

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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So you'd be happy to for France and Germany to resume their rivalry of at 100 years?  With Britain standing on the sidelines making sure neither of them got too strong.   Years of non stop war with Germany invading France and vice versa.  France invading Spain, Portugal and Italy?  The French provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, changed hands between France and Germany four times in 70 years.  The whole of Eastern Europe vulnerable once again to Russia.   The Balkans a tinder box, primed to set off another world war.  Is that really what you want?  Are you out of your mind?

Did you actually read what I wrote ?

 

Let me refresh you;

"I'd be very happy to see the EU crumble and a return to the pre EU parliament days where the EU is just a collection of countries working under a trade framework and cooperating on other individual projects as & when they want to. No central parliament, no sponging beurocrats, no contributions & subsidies, no imposition of directives, every country with an equal voice and the ability to pick & choose what they participate in".

 

Exactly where in any of that do I advocate a return to a pre 2nd world war state with countries at each others throats vying to be the top power on the continent ?

We don't need an EU parliament to be able to trade freely and cooperate on projects of mutual benefit.

 

There's no desire among the people or the leaders of any of the EU nations to resume old conflicts. Even the most extreme party leaders have never expressed any wish to seize control and take their country to war with their EU neighbours. The events of the first half of the 20th century bear no representation of the way things are now across Europe. If the EU parliament disappeared none of that would change (except in your mind it would seem).

Your totally deluded if you think the 3rd Reich will somehow rise from the ashes if the EU parliament ceases to exist

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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Did you actually read what I wrote ?

 

Let me refresh you;

"I'd be very happy to see the EU crumble and a return to the pre EU parliament days where the EU is just a collection of countries working under a trade framework and cooperating on other individual projects as & when they want to. No central parliament, no sponging beurocrats, no contributions & subsidies, no imposition of directives, every country with an equal voice and the ability to pick & choose what they participate in".

 

Exactly where in any of that do I advocate a return to a pre 2nd world war state with countries at each others throats vying to be the top power on the continent ?

We don't need an EU parliament to be able to trade freely and cooperate on projects of mutual benefit.

 

There's no desire among the people or the leaders of any of the EU nations to resume old conflicts. Even the most extreme party leaders have never expressed any wish to seize control and take their country to war with their EU neighbours. The events of the first half of the 20th century bear no representation of the way things are now across Europe. If the EU parliament disappeared none of that would change (except in your mind it would seem).

Your totally deluded if you think the 3rd Reich will somehow rise from the ashes if the EU parliament ceases to exist

You don't but nevertheless that would be the result of what you propose.  It happened for a 1000 years, we've had 70 years of relative peace in Europe. And you hope the organisation that has guaranteed this peace falls apart.  Because you don't like Mr Juncker. You don't like him because you have been taught not to like him or any of his predecessors by the Daily Mail at al.

That wonderful publication which up to the outbreak of hostilities in 1939 was backing Hitler.  It's proprietor even congratulated him for invading Czechoslovakia.

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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You don't but nevertheless that would be the result of what you propose. 

All hail mystic Trojan, the man who can predict the future.

At the weekend do you walk up & down the high street proclaiming 'We're all doomed"

 

The EU served its purpose and no doubt helped heal some of the wounds of 2 world wars. But from the early 70's onwards when it started centralising powers and gaining the ability to interfere and dictate to individual countries its purpose changed. It went from an organisation that brought countries together for common goals to an organisation seeking power for itself. Its dream of being the sole power across Europe with governance over all countries started to take shape. They gained more & more legislative powers, their courts gained primacy over national courts in many areas, they got a single currency introduced in 2/3rd's of the EU states, and their aims for a federal Europe haven't changed to this day.  

 

For the residents of europe, the old fears of a return to conflict have long gone. If you seriously believe that all the European nations would turn back the clock, cease to be allies and turn on each other just because the EU parliament disappeared then your seriously in need of some strong medication.

 

Slowly but surely people are realising that we don't need an EU parliament to be able to live harmoniously, to trade freely with each other, to work together where there are common interests & goals. The leaders of the individual countries can achieve all of this without an EU parliament. 

There's strong evidence to suggest that people no longer want an all powerful, centralised government, they want the decisions to be taken nationally, regionally or locally. All this is completely at odds with the EU's vision of a future federal Europe and they just can't see that they are the ones completely out of step with the people. It may just be apathy towards the EU now but the first real signs of discontent are showing.

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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All hail mystic Trojan, the man who can predict the future.

At the weekend do you walk up & down the high street proclaiming 'We're all doomed"

 

The EU served its purpose and no doubt helped heal some of the wounds of 2 world wars. But from the early 70's onwards when it started centralising powers and gaining the ability to interfere and dictate to individual countries its purpose changed. It went from an organisation that brought countries together for common goals to an organisation seeking power for itself. Its dream of being the sole power across Europe with governance over all countries started to take shape. They gained more & more legislative powers, their courts gained primacy over national courts in many areas, they got a single currency introduced in 2/3rd's of the EU states, and their aims for a federal Europe haven't changed to this day.  

 

For the residents of europe, the old fears of a return to conflict have long gone. If you seriously believe that all the European nations would turn back the clock, cease to be allies and turn on each other just because the EU parliament disappeared then your seriously in need of some strong medication.

 

Slowly but surely people are realising that we don't need an EU parliament to be able to live harmoniously, to trade freely with each other, to work together where there are common interests & goals. The leaders of the individual countries can achieve all of this without an EU parliament. 

There's strong evidence to suggest that people no longer want an all powerful, centralised government, they want the decisions to be taken nationally, regionally or locally. All this is completely at odds with the EU's vision of a future federal Europe and they just can't see that they are the ones completely out of step with the people. It may just be apathy towards the EU now but the first real signs of discontent are showing.

A good way to predict the future is to look at what happened in the past

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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A good way to predict the future is to look at what happened in the past

The state of the world 70 odd years ago bears little resemblance to what we have now.

Gone are the nation states with aspirations of world domination and the willingness to use force to achieve it. The chances of any EU leader of the future being able to control their people and have complete control of propaganda is next to zero. No matter how bad things get in a country we'll never see the rise of another Hitler type figure, certainly not in any of the major European nations.

St.Helens - The Home of record breaking Rugby Champions

 

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The state of the world 70 odd years ago bears little resemblance to what we have now.

Gone are the nation states with aspirations of world domination and the willingness to use force to achieve it. The chances of any EU leader of the future being able to control their people and have complete control of propaganda is next to zero. No matter how bad things get in a country we'll never see the rise of another Hitler type figure, certainly not in any of the major European nations.

I'm sure that's exactly what Chamberlain was saying when Churchill was warning him of the dangers Germany threatened.

“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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