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NRL 2016 - The run to the Finals


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Stolen from Voss

 

With nine rounds remaining, lets take stock of this year's finals race.

 

There are still 18 competition points available to every side.

Mathematically, only Newcastle is out of contention.

 

Last year, 26 competition points would have been enough to make the playoffs with a decent for and against. And it may still be a sufficient tally in 2016.

But to be sure, 28 points has to be the target.

 

If that's the case, it means there are the following equations for the bottom bracket of sides.

  • The Titans and Tigers need to win six of nine.
  • The Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles face the task of winning eight from their last nine.
  • For the Roosters and the Eels (once they are deducted their points) it's remain undefeated between now and September.

 

At the other end, the Sharks (30) and the Storm (28) are already in. The Storm have a +/- of +216 so they could lose every remaining game by 10pts and still make the 8. They even have a bye this week so they are nailed on.

 

The Cows (24pts) have a relatively tough run home - 5/8 games against current top 8 teams but the games against the Chooks and Tigers + bye should see them finish 5th at worst.

 

Bulldogs (22pts) still have another bye but play the Cows twice and the Broncos. All their other games are against teams sitting 10th or lower. They could win 6/8+bye, finish on 36pts - last year 36 would have put them 4th.

 

For the middle teams I'll wait until after this round to do their calculations.

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Sharks, Storm, Cowboys and Dogs look sure things for finals.

Raiders look good enough to get into top 8.

So three more ... for time to sort out.

 

Broncos need to regain some kind of form, a top 8 place is theirs to lose - surely not? ........

Panthers with more good days than bad should get in there.

Who knows with Warriors? Signs are better recently. 

Could Tigers or Titans sneak in there? -Well yes they could, but when you look at the maths of it, that you quote above, then it looks like a tall order.

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  • 2 weeks later...

After Round 19

 

1. SHARKS (34pts, 175+/-)

Knights (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

2. STORM (32pts, 220+/-)

Roosters (H), Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

3. COWBOYS (26pts, 173+/-)

Bulldogs (H), Storm (H), Tigers (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

4. BULLDOGS (26pts, 109+/-)

Cowboys (A), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

5. RAIDERS (25pts, 82+/-)

Warriors (H), Rabbitohs (A), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

6. BRONCOS (24pts, 99+/-)

Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Eels (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

7. TITANS (20pts, -3+/-)

Eels (H), Sharks (H), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

8. WARRIORS (20pts, -17+/-)

Raiders (A), Panthers (H), Titans (A), Rabbitohs (H), Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

9. PANTHERS (20pts, -32+/-)

Broncos (A), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)

 

10. DRAGONS (20pts, -145+/-)

Tigers (H), Bulldogs (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 

11. TIGERS (18pts, -87+/-)

Dragons (A), Eels (A), Cowboys (H), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

12. SEA EAGLES (16pts, -68+/-)

Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Eels (A), Bulldogs (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Panthers (A)

 

13. RABBITOHS (14pts, -82+/-)

Sea Eagles (H), Raiders (H), Storm (A), Warriors (A), Sharks (H), Knights (A), Bulldogs (A)

 

everyone else is dead and the Bunnies could join that group if they don't beat Manly on Monday night.

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Warriors run in should favour them. If they can't stay in the 8 and even bump into the top 6 by the end of the season then heaven help them. Another frustrating season for the Warriors.

Interesting question. On current form and the season so far and quite simply your gut feel, what order of preference would you put the following clubs as opponents if your club were pitted against them in a knockout semi final?

Sharks

Storm

Cows

Dogs

Broncs

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I suspected Cows would deliver this week. I expected more from Broncos and Dogs. Melbourne would be very damaging and my team are the Sharks.

If I had to put my house on the premiers at this point, I would be probably slightly favouring Cows over Storm.

Saying that, I would prefer the Sharks play Cows than Storm in playoff footy.

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After Round 20

 

1. SHARKS (36pts, 207+/-)

Titans (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

2. STORM (34pts, 236+/-)

 Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

3. COWBOYS (28pts, 209+/-)

Storm (H), Tigers (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

4. RAIDERS (27pts, 86+/-)

 Rabbitohs (A), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

5. BULLDOGS (26pts, 73+/-)

Dragons (H), Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

6. BRONCOS (24pts, 80+/-)

Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Eels (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

7. TITANS (22pts, 17+/-)

Sharks (H), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

 

8. PANTHERS (22pts, -13+/-)

Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)

 

9. WARRIORS (20pts, -21+/-)

 Panthers (H), Titans (A), Rabbitohs (H), Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

10. TIGERS (20pts, -74+/-)

Eels (A), Cowboys (H), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

11. DRAGONS (20pts, -158+/-)

Bulldogs (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 

12. SEA EAGLES (18pts, -60+/-)

Knights (H), Eels (A), Bulldogs (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Panthers (A)

 

13. RABBITOHS (14pts, -90+/-)

 Raiders (H), Storm (A), Warriors (A), Sharks (H), Knights (A), Bulldogs (A)

 

G = magic cutoff line for finals

 

I'll leave the Bunnies there for this round but if they don't win ........... :hang:

 

Raiders, Dogs and Brisbane should all fall over the line from here, especially given the very poor +/- of some of the teams in the chasing pack.

 

Warriors have a few games that aren't just winnable but could really beef up their +/-

 

Manly are an outside chance but need a couple of big wins to fix their +/-, just in case they end up in a bunch on 26pts.

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After Round 21

 

1. SHARKS (37pts, 207+/-)

Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

2. STORM (36pts, 244+/-)

 Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

3. RAIDERS (29pts,136+/-)

 Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

4. COWBOYS (28pts, 201+/-)

Tigers (A), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

5. BULLDOGS (28pts, 76+/-)

Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

6. BRONCOS (24pts, 64+/-)

Dragons (A), Eels (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

7. TITANS (23pts, 17+/-)

Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

8. WARRIORS (22pts, -17+/-)

Titans (A), Rabbitohs (H), Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

9. PANTHERS (22pts, -17+/-)

Roosters (H), Knights (A), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)

 

10. TIGERS (22pts, -59+/-)

Cowboys (H), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

11. SEA EAGLES (20pts, -40+/-)

 Eels (A), Bulldogs (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Panthers (A)

 

12. DRAGONS (20pts, -161+/-)

Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 


 

G = magic cutoff line for finals

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After Round 22

 

 

1. STORM (38pts, 245+/-)

 Raiders (A), Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

2. SHARKS (37pts, 191+/-)

Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

3. RAIDERS (31pts,151+/-)

Storm (H), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

4. BULLDOGS (30pts, 90+/-)

Sea Eagles (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

5. COWBOYS (28pts, 189+/-)

Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

6. BRONCOS (26pts, 68+/-)

Eels (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

7. PANTHERS (24pts, 3+/-)

 Knights (A), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)


8. WARRIORS (24pts, -7+/-)

Rabbitohs (H), Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

9. TIGERS (24pts, -47+/-)

Titans (H), Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

10. TITANS (23pts, 7+/-)

Tigers (A), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

HKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKKHKHKKHKH

 

11. SEA EAGLES (20pts, -41+/-)

Bulldogs (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Panthers (A)

 

12. DRAGONS (20pts, -165+/-)

Sharks (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 


 

G = magic cutoff line for finals

HKHK = gone but still possible only if 4 teams above them all collapse and 11 & 12 win all their remaining games

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And now, my fearless predictions:

 

  • Only the Storm and Sharks and Raiders can win the Minor Premiership but even then, Raiders would have to win all 4 AND Storm lose all 4 AND Sharks win only 3/4
  • The Dogs could finish on 38pts - equal first at absolute best, depending on lots of other results - but they would have to win all 4 by 30pts to catch the Storm on +/-
  • Dogs v. Cows in Round 25 will probably decide 4th and 5th
  • Cows might reach 3rd if a lot of other results go their way. 4th or 5th far more likely.
  • Broncos might only get 2 more wins, finish on 30pts, 6th or 7th.
  • Even if Panthers win 4/4 I don't think they'll get higher than 6th - they would need the Cows to lose 4/4 to reach 5th
  • Warriors, Tigers and Gold Coast - no idea, but it's all up to them since they play each other and/or Panthers in the last few weeks.

 

My Tip: Storm to finish on top. Storm v Raiders GF. Storm to win GF

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After Round 23

 

 

1. STORM (38pts, 231+/-)

 Sea Eagles (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

2. SHARKS (37pts, 177+/-)

Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

3. RAIDERS (33pts,166+/-)

Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

4. BULLDOGS (32pts, 94+/-)

Broncos (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

5. COWBOYS (28pts, 177+/-)

Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

6. BRONCOS (28pts, 90+/-)

Bulldogs (H), Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

7. PANTHERS (26pts, 39+/-)

Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)


 

8. TITANS (25pts, 8+/-)

Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

 

9. WARRIORS (24pts, -26+/-)

Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

10. TIGERS (24pts, -48+/-)

Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

HKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKHKKHKHKKHKH

 

11. DRAGONS (22pts, -151+/-)

Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 


 

G = magic cutoff line for finals

HKHK = gone but still possible only if 3 of the 4 teams directly above them all collapse and Dragons win all their remaining games

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Notes to above:

  • Last week we had 5 finals berths nailed on. The Broncos' win has made them the 6th team to reach the magic 28 competition points and their +/- of +90 will seal it, even if they lose all their remaining games by moderate margins.
  • I've officially ruled Manly "deceased." All brain function has ceased and the organs are being harvested as we speak.
  • St George, amazingly, are still alive and have 3 winnable games. Their +/- is so bad (-151) that they need a massive collapse by 3 of the teams 7, 8, 9 and 10
  • Panthers only need to win this week and they will nail down a finals spot. Their +/- should protect them if they finish equal on competition points with, well, anyone.
  • Warriors can make it by winning all 3 OR by winning 2/3 with big margins and losing one close game. Tigers, same story.
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Farmduck (edited by me):


 

7. PANTHERS (26pts, 39+/-)

Tigers (H), Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)


 

8. TITANS (25pts, 8+/-)

Knights (A), Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

 

9. WARRIORS (24pts, -26+/-)

Cowboys (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

10. TIGERS (24pts, -48+/-)

Panthers (A), Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

 

 

11. DRAGONS (22pts, -151+/-)

Roosters (A), Eels (A), Knights (H).

 


 

 

After a couple of games in Round 24 surely now this 7 to 11 is more and more likely

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After Round 24

 

 

1. STORM (40pts, 251+/-)

 Broncos (H), Sharks (H).

 

2. SHARKS (37pts, 171+/-)

Roosters (H), Storm (A).

 

3. RAIDERS (35pts,176+/-)

Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A).

 

4. BULLDOGS (32pts, 84+/-)

Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H).

 

5. COWBOYS (30pts, 205+/-)

 Bulldogs (A), Titans (H).

 

6. BRONCOS (30pts, 100+/-)

Storm (A), Roosters (H).

 

7. PANTHERS (28pts, 69+/-)

Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H)

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

8. TITANS (27pts, 28+/-)

Panthers (H), Cowboys (A)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 

9. WARRIORS (24pts, -54+/-)

Tigers (H), Eels (H).

 

10. TIGERS (24pts, -78+/-)

Warriors (A), Raiders (H).

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  • St George officially dead. Even with 2 big wins they would only end on 26pts but the Tightens are already on 27.

Winner of this week's Warriors/Tigers game will stay alive but will need to win their final game - NZers at home to Parra or Wests at home to the Green Machine. AND they need the Gold Coast to lose both remaining games, Panthers and Cowboys. This seems very possible and, given that I can't see the Tigers beating Canberra in Round 26, the NZers seem the team with the best chance of finishing 8th.

Storm should finish Minor Premiers UNLESS they lose both games AND Cronulla win both games.

Sharks can finish in 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Raiders can finish 2, 3, or 4

Dogs anywhere from 3-7

Cows 4-8

Broncos 4-8

Panthers could finish as high as 4th but could still miss the finals IF they had 2 big losses (by 30+) AND Warriors or Tigers had 2 big wins. NZers would need to win both by 30+ OR Tigers might win both their final games by 40+. I think they'll win 2 and finish 6th.

Titans could finish 5th IF they win their last 2 AND Cows, Broncos and Penrith all lose their last 2. IF they win one game, they finish 8th, or 7th IF the Panthers lose both remaining games.

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Given the turnabout in form of some of the teams that have struggled this season, there's some intriguing fixtures there that are no longer gimmes.

mathematically you could think the NZ Warriors are the team that could do it with two hme games that are winnable.

Trouble is its the Warriors and you wouldn't put money on them!

 

If Tigers do well this weekend, their R26 game against in form Raiders will likely be a try fest and a cracker.

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After Round 25

 

 

1. STORM (40pts, 241+/-)

 Sharks (H).

 

2. SHARKS (39pts, 196+/-)

 Storm (A).

 

3. RAIDERS (37pts,190+/-)

Tigers (A).

 

4. COWBOYS (32pts, 213+/-)

 Titans (H).

 

5. BRONCOS (32pts, 110+/-)

Roosters (H).

 

6. BULLDOGS (32pts, 76+/-)

Rabbitohs (H).

 

7. PANTHERS (30pts, 70+/-)

Sea Eagles (H)

 

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

 

8. TITANS (27pts, 27+/-)

Cowboys (A)

 

9. TIGERS (26pts, -66+/-)

Raiders (H).

 

 

Every team above the GGGGGGGG line is safe.

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If I assume that

  • Storm will beat the Sharks
  • Raiders beat Wests
  • Cows beat Titans
  • All other top 8 teams win
  • Panther margin over Manly is 7pts better than Dogs win over Bunnies

then,

 

1.Storm

2.Canberra

3.Cronulla

4.Cows

5.Brisbane

6.Panthers

7.Dogs

8.Titans

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