From 51st State to 24th Province - Hinkley Point Deal

[Griff9of13]

The Tories’ embrace of China has created a new divide in British politics

 

Few of those not obliged to defend the deal regard it as economically prudent. “Hinkley is on course to become the most expensive power station ever built anywhere in the world,” Lisa Nandy, the shadow energy secretary, told me. “Bill payers could be paying over the odds for decades.”

 

Among those who agree, awkwardly for Osborne, is his father-in-law. The former energy minister David Howell has described the project as “one of the worst deals ever” for British consumers and industry. The concurrent steel crisis has heightened the charge of a government not protecting the national interest. Having tolerated the loss of thousands of jobs in Redcar, the UK is aiding China in “dumping” its subsidised stock on the market.

 

 

[ckn]

Now, here's a first, I'm actually going to stick up for the current government.  Labour from 1997 until 2010 went on about investing for the future in power, their sole consideration towards this were a few, admittedly decent, renewable grant schemes but they persistently and repeatedly parked or evaded the subject of investing for the future in mainstream power plants.  Warnings were given repeatedly that things had to be done on the major infrastructure investment side but it was left to someone else to fix it.  It got so bad that nuclear power engineers and technicians were on the critical skills shortage list for years, meaning we had to bring in foreign people to work in our most security sensitive infrastructure, that's now ingrained in the system and we don't even bother trying to create our own any more.  Yay for abysmal management by Blair and Brown.  I won't go further back because it's been 18 years since Major left power and it'd be damnably hard to put the lack of investment over the last 18 years down to the Tories.

 

2010-2015, the Lib Dems effectively vetoed nuclear power deals by insider delays rather than outright opposition, strangely they thought it might alienate some of their voters...  The Tories made it quite clear though what they wanted to do, the private power companies shrugged and made it clear that power infrastructure wasn't their problem.

 

There really is no other option on the table, almost literally.  We COULD pay for it ourselves but then the Tories know that that'd be a guaranteed electoral defeat given the tax rises necessary to pay for it.  We're at the point that, I believe, 35% of power generation major infrastructure will go end-of-life by 2030.  No-one else wants to do the project, we've essentially had to bribe EDF and the Chinese with future huge profits to assist.

 

The government have really no option in this and it's the least worst option for us in the long term.  The choice is:  suck it up and get it done or see us having zero capacity in the system by 2025 and a projected persistent undercapacity after that.  As I heard, from 2022-2025 we'll be at the stage where we can't take major power plants offline for maintenance for more than weekends because there will not be capacity in the system to cope.

 

So, well done the Tories for actually making a hard and very public decision.

[nadera78]

Now, here's a first, I'm actually going to stick up for the current government.  Labour from 1997 until 2010 went on about investing for the future in power, their sole consideration towards this were a few, admittedly decent, renewable grant schemes but they persistently and repeatedly parked or evaded the subject of investing for the future in mainstream power plants.  Warnings were given repeatedly that things had to be done on the major infrastructure investment side but it was left to someone else to fix it.  It got so bad that nuclear power engineers and technicians were on the critical skills shortage list for years, meaning we had to bring in foreign people to work in our most security sensitive infrastructure, that's now ingrained in the system and we don't even bother trying to create our own any more.  Yay for abysmal management by Blair and Brown.  I won't go further back because it's been 18 years since Major left power and it'd be damnably hard to put the lack of investment over the last 18 years down to the Tories.

 

2010-2015, the Lib Dems effectively vetoed nuclear power deals by insider delays rather than outright opposition, strangely they thought it might alienate some of their voters...  The Tories made it quite clear though what they wanted to do, the private power companies shrugged and made it clear that power infrastructure wasn't their problem.

 

There really is no other option on the table, almost literally.  We COULD pay for it ourselves but then the Tories know that that'd be a guaranteed electoral defeat given the tax rises necessary to pay for it.  We're at the point that, I believe, 35% of power generation major infrastructure will go end-of-life by 2030.  No-one else wants to do the project, we've essentially had to bribe EDF and the Chinese with future huge profits to assist.

 

The government have really no option in this and it's the least worst option for us in the long term.  The choice is:  suck it up and get it done or see us having zero capacity in the system by 2025 and a projected persistent undercapacity after that.  As I heard, from 2022-2025 we'll be at the stage where we can't take major power plants offline for maintenance for more than weekends because there will not be capacity in the system to cope.

 

So, well done the Tories for actually making a hard and very public decision.

Well, instead of spending £50Billion on HS2 we could could build 2 of these power stations, even at the seemingly inflated current price. Or with the £100Billion going on Trident, we could build 4 of them. Scrap both of those schemes and we could build 6.

 

But if we really want to go ahead with HS2, Trident and nuclear power stations, then instead of being in hock to the Chinese we could simply borrow the money needed - currently available at historically low rates - and pay for them ourselves. It's what the new Canadian government will be doing, borrowing to invest.

 

But George would rather tear his own eyes out than do that. Britain investing in British infrastructure is a terrible idea, but China doing it is fabulous.

[gingerjon]

Nadera78 has just made my point better than I could.

 

I'll stick to the other issue: it's not going to do what it should when it should or cost what they say it will cost.

[ckn]

Well, instead of spending £50Billion on HS2 we could could build 2 of these power stations, even at the seemingly inflated current price. Or with the £100Billion going on Trident, we could build 4 of them. Scrap both of those schemes and we could build 6.

 

But if we really want to go ahead with HS2, Trident and nuclear power stations, then instead of being in hock to the Chinese we could simply borrow the money needed - currently available at historically low rates - and pay for them ourselves. It's what the new Canadian government will be doing, borrowing to invest.

 

But George would rather tear his own eyes out than do that. Britain investing in British infrastructure is a terrible idea, but China doing it is fabulous.

In many ways I agree with you but the electorate wouldn't.  The Tories are defending a 12 seat majority and are clearly aware that they'll only keep that by concentrating on those who put them in power this time.  Their funding and support would slip if they had to raise taxes to pay for it and they'd be back as a minority party or in opposition, even with Corbyn as Labour leader.

 

HS2 is popular with Tory voters.  Trident is popular with Tory voters.

 

At least a decision has been made and we know we'll get power in the future.

[Alfie Taylor]

Well, instead of spending £50Billion on HS2 we could could build 2 of these power stations, even at the seemingly inflated current price. Or with the £100Billion going on Trident, we could build 4 of them. Scrap both of those schemes and we could build 6.

 

But if we really want to go ahead with HS2, Trident and nuclear power stations, then instead of being in hock to the Chinese we could simply borrow the money needed - currently available at historically low rates - and pay for them ourselves. It's what the new Canadian government will be doing, borrowing to invest.

 

But George would rather tear his own eyes out than do that. Britain investing in British infrastructure is a terrible idea, but China doing it is fabulous.

I thought Trident fell under the banner of "2% defence spending" or whatever the amount is, so even if Trident was scrapped the money would just be spent on other defence projects.

[JohnM]

Nadera78 has just made my point better than I could.

 

I'll stick to the other issue: it's not going to do what it should when it should or cost what they say it will cost.

 

 

Hardly anything ever does/did.

 

The cost of electrifying the Great Western railway line between Cardiff and London could reach £2.8bn, the boss of Network Rail has said. Chief executive Mark Carne told MPs the estimate had been £874m in January 2013 and £1.5bn in September 2014.A senior civil servant also revealed there was now no firm completion date for the project, originally due to be finished by 2018. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34594599

 

“When the Strategic Rail Authority stepped in, the project to modernise the West Coast Main Line was in disarray, vastly over-budget and with few of the planned improvements in place.

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-modernisation-of-the-west-coast-main-line/

 

 

TSR 2

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=fb87AwAAQBAJ&pg=PT166&lpg=PT166&dq=TSR+2+budget&source=bl&ots=v5eZMGw0w-&sig=mr_L1h4mSJPz5qsyRKQ1M4y_4d0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFkQ6AEwCGoVChMI_p-6gvjVyAIVzOsUCh36sg_D#v=onepage&q=TSR%202%20budget&f=false

 

Dungeness B

 Reactor 1 first generated power on 3 April 1983, some 13 years behind schedule and at a cost of £685 million, four times the initial estimate in inflation adjusted terms.

 

and nauseum

[gingerjon]

Hardly anything ever does/did.

 

The cost of electrifying the Great Western railway line between Cardiff and London could reach £2.8bn, the boss of Network Rail has said. Chief executive Mark Carne told MPs the estimate had been £874m in January 2013 and £1.5bn in September 2014.A senior civil servant also revealed there was now no firm completion date for the project, originally due to be finished by 2018. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34594599

 

“When the Strategic Rail Authority stepped in, the project to modernise the West Coast Main Line was in disarray, vastly over-budget and with few of the planned improvements in place.

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-modernisation-of-the-west-coast-main-line/

 

 

TSR 2

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=fb87AwAAQBAJ&pg=PT166&lpg=PT166&dq=TSR+2+budget&source=bl&ots=v5eZMGw0w-&sig=mr_L1h4mSJPz5qsyRKQ1M4y_4d0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFkQ6AEwCGoVChMI_p-6gvjVyAIVzOsUCh36sg_D#v=onepage&q=TSR%202%20budget&f=false

 

Dungeness B

 Reactor 1 first generated power on 3 April 1983, some 13 years behind schedule and at a cost of £685 million, four times the initial estimate in inflation adjusted terms.

 

and nauseum

 

It's a bit of an issue though if we're relying on it being our power solution inside a decade ...

[Saint Toppy]

The power generation problem should have been sorted a decade ago but Blair & Brown were too weak to face up to the impending issues. The LibDems vetoed any progress being made on the problem in the last parliament so at least Cameron has made a start.

 

People baulk at the cost of nuclear but whats the alternative ?

Coal, oil & gas (aside from being dirty fuels) are finite resources that will eventually run out. We buy in most of our coal now, and North sea oil & gas has maybe 20 years supply left. Renewable can't meet the demand - wind is unreliable and can't guaranteee the baseline supply, Hydro could be significantly increased in the UK but the Eco warriors will just start their whining about damage to habitat. Jeeze the Severn Barage could have produced the same amount of power as a nuclear power plant, for less money, but was vetoed because of the loss of bird wetland.

 

Personally I dont really care if the Chinese are funding the construction, better this than going back to the dark ages.

[JohnM]

It's a bit of an issue though if we're relying on it being our power solution inside a decade ...

 

quite so. I wonder if anyone is giving decent odds on it being on time, on budget and working.   Still the right decision, though.

[Saintslass]

Why is it that infrastructure projects almost always go over budget and over deadline?

 

As for the infrastructure project which is the topic of this thread, while I'm uncomfortable with the Chinese investing in nuclear energy in this country, even though they are the minor partner in this instance, we don't appear to have much choice.  Personally I dislike nuclear as an option because of all the attendant risks, which thanks to its waste will last for centuries, but if we want to consume electricity at the rate we do today then we have to suck it up.

[GeordieSaint]

Why is it that infrastructure projects almost always go over budget and over deadline?

 

A range of reasons ranging from poor forecasting and unrealistic timeframes to government's constantly changing the requirements.

 

Oh, government departments have been shocking at writing contracts in the past... look at the mess WearyRhino made of Defence Procurement!

[ckn]

Any politician who makes a change request on one of these projects that increases the price should have to pay the increase personally, unless there is an independent finding of increased value that exceeds the extra cost.

[gingerjon]

Any politician who makes a change request on one of these projects that increases the price should have to pay the increase personally, unless there is an independent finding of increased value that exceeds the extra cost.

 

The Tories you were so soundly praising a few posts up increased the costs of Hinkley by £2bn in the past week.

[Bearman]

Is fracking the answer?

Huge reserves in the Forest of Bowland and in the South East. No rugby league grounds will be affected.

[GeordieSaint]

Is fracking the answer? Huge reserves in the Forest of Bowland and in the South East.

Absolutely not. We've destroyed enough of the ecosystem across the UK; it's about time we moved away from oil and gas.

[Bedford Roughyed]

Plus fracking only changes the supplier, it doesn't build gas power stations on its own.

 

I think we should have more nuclear (its got long term issues, but is low carbon) but not sure this deal is the right deal.

[Saintslass]

Is fracking the answer?

Huge reserves in the Forest of Bowland and in the South East. No rugby league grounds will be affected.

I don't think we will ever find out because every time any company wants to do anything there is major hysteria from some protest group or another as if said company were kick starting the apocalypse or something.

[Saintslass]

HS2 is popular with Tory voters. 

Not with this one it isn't.  I think it's the biggest waste of time, money and beautiful English heritage that has been proposed for some time.  Hopefully it will die a death at the planning stages but I'm fearful it won't.

[Wolford6]

HS2 is all about conning Northerners into thinking that it will speed up access to other parts of the country as a boon to the creation of the Northern Powerhouse.

 

The Tories will establish HS2 Plc, a PFI organisation contracted to deliver the project using guarranteed  government funding. Phase 1 ... the link between Birmingham and London ... will be completed (using imported steel from our good friends in China) on schedule. Purely by coincidence the deadline arrives shortly  before a General Election. This gives the Tories a boost and PM Osborne exults that he is gung ho about the project to be completed as soon as possible. He trails the posibility of unemployed people in Redcar and Scunthorpe getting employment as buffet operatives in the fleet of new (French-built) HS2 rolling stock.

 

However, a fortnight after the victory over the Jeremy Corblimey party in the election, Phase 2 will be cancelled 'delayed for a short period'.

Curiously, two months before the election, major investors in the City start divesting themselves of shares held in HS2 Plc.

 

Osborne appoints Gove as the new Mayor of Teesside.

[GeordieSaint]

I don't think we will ever find out because every time any company wants to do anything there is major hysteria from some protest group or another as if said company were kick starting the apocalypse or something.

I would suggest you go and have a look at such sites in Alberta, Canada to understand why protest groups are so vocal.

[Griff9of13]

Not with this one it isn't. I think it's the biggest waste of time, money and beautiful English heritage that has been proposed for some time. Hopefully it will die a death at the planning stages but I'm fearful it won't.

Here's a first; I completely and utterly agree with you.

[Ramite]

I thought east and west coast lines were at capacity ? What other options are there ?

[Saint Toppy]

The biggest problem with major infrastructure projects in this country is the political interference and central governments inability to make strategic decisions in a timely manner and to actually listen to industry. Instead they pander to every minor protest group and put opinion poll politics before decision making.

I work for one of the worlds largest civil engineering companies and have been involved with numerous infrastructure projects across the UK, mainly in the highways sector, but the company I work for is also one of the main delivery partners for HS2. I can tell you that once you take away all the political spin (from both sides of the argument) and the media hysteria then HS2 will bring as much (if not more) benefits to the midlands and the north as crossrail does to London. Okay there are environmental implications to the project but the economic benefits are significant. 

Getting back to the original topic of nuclear power, like high speed rail, we've had to endure decades of political indecision. The UK used to be THE worlds leading nation on nuclear technology. What our scientists and engineers achieved at Sellafield was remarkable and set the template for nuclear power across the globe. Sadly due to successive government indecision the rest of the world has overtaken us, much of our industry knowledge & expertise has been lost, and we now have to rely on overseas experts. My company now only has a very small nuclear team left in the UK and we bring in huge teams from the US to deliver nuclear projects in the UK.

Another perfect example of government indecision is in nuclear waste. The current repositories are virtually full and / or are in need of major upgrade & renovation. Potential new sites have been identified with at least half a dozen deemed fully viable but yet again they are dragging their heels in making a decision. Even where there is no public opposition such as some of the Cumbrian sites, they still wont make a decision.

 

As i've said previously i'm glad this government has finally made a decision on nuclear power and they appear to have made one on HS2 (at least on phase 1). I'm by no means a Tory supporter but on this one they're streets ahead of Labour. With Corbyn we'd go straight back to the years of indecision and dithering. He's against building new nuclear power stations, his own shadow energy secretary is Pro-nuclear and were yet to see any viable energy plan from Labour as a whole.

[Alfie Taylor]

Not with this one it isn't. I think it's the biggest waste of time, money and beautiful English heritage that has been proposed for some time. Hopefully it will die a death at the planning stages but I'm fearful it won't.

It may be a waste of time and money for us, I'm pushing 50, but there's a few generations still to come long after we've gone who will benefit. In fact, there's a high chance people will be arguing about HS25 on the Internet in years to come.

This country is riddled with motorways that continue to be expanded for extra capacity, and when the protests die down, the road gets built and everyone wonders how they ever managed before. Build HS2, build nuclear power stations the frogs will be just fine. We're very good these days at keeping environmental risk down.