NRL - the run to the finals

[Farmduck]

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Tigers at Suncorp Stadium;

Titans at Suncorp Stadium;

Sea Eagles at Central Coast Stadium;

Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium;

Dragons at Suncorp Stadium;

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

Currently on 30pts need only 3 wins to nail down a top 4 spot. Finish with 5 games against probable top 8 teams though, so might finish on 36-38pts - 1st or 2nd

 

 

2.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Sea Eagles - Away

Eels - Home

Raiders - H

Sharks - A

Rabbitohs - H

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Will finish Round 18 with 28pts (including the Bye) May try to rest Origin players and have 5 games against bottom-half teams so should finish on at least 38pts - 1 or 2

 

 

3. Sydney Roosters

 

Warriors - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - H

Knights -A

Eels - H

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 24pts with the best +/- in NRL. Would be favourites to win at least 4, and their 3 toughest games are all at home. I'll guess 7 wins, finishing 3rd on 36pts.

 

 

4. New Zealand Warriors

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - H

Sharks - H

Dragons at Westpac Stadium, Wellington (NZ)

Panthers - A

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting 4th after Round 18 on 22pts. If they win all their home games (+ the game in Wellington) they finish on 30pts, probably 5th or 6th. Every away win could equate to one extra rung on the finishing ladder.

 

 

5. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Dragons at SCG;

Knights - H

Panthers - H

Sea Eagles - A

Cowboys - A

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 22pts (including the BYE) I wouldn't be surprised if they won 6 or 7 of their last 8. This would put them 3-5th depending on +/-, which currently is only +18. A big win  is needed to improve their +/- otherwise they could end equal 3rd but 6th on +/-

 

 

6.Melbourne Storm

 

Penrith - H

Dragons at Napier (New Zealand);

Tigers - A

Titans - H

Sharks - A

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Tough to predict. Nobody wants to play the Sharks at Cronulla. The Titans have shown glimpses of quality this year and even Wests, at full strength at Leichhardt could be a problem. I think they'll win 7/9, end up with 34pts and sit 4/5th.

 

 

7. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Rabbitohs at SCG;

Melbourne at Napier (New Zealand);

Newcastle - H

Warriors at Westpac Stadium (Wellington);

Broncos - A

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

Most pundits opine that the Dragons have over-achieved this year and that the rest of the season will be a reality adjustment for the Red Vee. Only 3 "soft" games and some odd venues but I could see them winning 5. This would have them on 30pts, comfortably holding 6th or 7th.

 

 

 

8. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Eels - H

Sharks at Belmore Oval;

Roosters - A

Broncos - A

Titans at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently 8th on 20pts they have 4 probable wins and 4 games against teams higher than them.

 

 

 

9. Cronulla Sharks

 

Raiders - A

Bulldogs at Belmore

Warriors - A

Cowboys - H

Storm - H

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

4 home games will help but, of all the teams currently on 20pts, the Sharks have the worst +/- I think they'll win 4 but, without a couple of 30pt wins, will miss the finals.

 

 

10. Canberra Raiders

 

Sharks - H

Panthers - A

Cowboys - A

Tigers - H

Sea Eagles - H

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 18pts with a very favourable draw - only one game against a higher team. They could win 6 and finish on 30pts. Their +/- is +7, better than most of the teams around them. They could finish 6th although every loss (apart from Panthers away and Cows away) would equate to one rung lower on the ladder.

 

 

11. Penrith  Panthers
Storm - A

Raiders - H

Rabbitohs - A

Eels at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Warriors - H

Dragons - A

Raiders - A

Knights - H

 

 

12. Parramatta Eels

Bulldogs - A

Cowboys - A

Titans - A

Panthers at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - A

Sharks - H

Raiders - H

 

On 18pts and only need 5 wins to make the 8.

 

 

13. Manly Sea Eagles
 

Cowboys - H

Warriors - A

Broncos at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Raiders - A

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Currently on 16pts, can still make the finals but need to win at least 6/8 and erase their -50 pts difference. Probably finish 10th or 11th

 

 

14.Gold Coast Titans

Knights - A

Broncos - A

Eels - H

Storm - A

Bulldogs at Central Coast Stadium

Raiders - H

Dragons - H

Cowboys - A

 

Currently on 16pts but I can only see 2, maybe 3 wins ahead. Look like staying in the bottom 4.

 

 

15. Wests Tigers

 

Broncos- A

Roosters - H

Storm - H

Raiders - A

Knights - H

Sharks - A

Warriors - H

Dragons at ANZ Stadium

 

Currently on 14pts. Maybe 3 wins, bottom 4

 

 

16. Newcastle Knights

Titans - H

Rabbitohs - A

Dragons - A

Roosters - H

Tigers - A

Storm - A

Bulldogs - H

Panthers - A

 

Also on 14pts with maybe only 2 wins on the horizon. Wooden Spoon favourites.

[Farmduck]

Some recent history:

 

- since 2005 the Minor Premiers have finished with an average of 39.6pts. Only the Broncos, Cows and Roosters could finish on 39 or better this year.

 

- since 2005, the cutoff point for 8th position has been at least 28pts every year but 2007, when 6th and 7th finished on 26, and 8th and 9th finished on 24pts.

 

- since 1998 the Minor Premiers have won 6/17 GFs and been losing GFists 6 times.

 

- since 1998, five Wooden Spoon winners have gone on to win subsequent GFs - could be a good omen for the Cows who won the Spoon in 2000. (Wests Magpies ran last in '98 and '99 then the merged Wests Tigers won GF in '05)

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 19. I'm still including the bottom teams because, in theory, even the Tigers could still make the finals. I think one team will drop off after each round.

 

 

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Titans at Suncorp Stadium;

Sea Eagles at Central Coast Stadium;

Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium;

Dragons at Suncorp Stadium;

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

Currently on 32pts need only 2 wins to nail down a top 4 spot. I think they'll win at least 4 and finish on 40pts - 1st

 

 

2.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Eels - Home

Raiders - H

Sharks - A

Rabbitohs - H

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Finished Round 19 on 30pts.  May try to rest Origin players and have 5 games against bottom-half teams so should finish on at least 38-40pts - probably 2nd or 3rd because their +/- is 100pts worse than the Broncos and Roosters

 

 

3. Sydney Roosters

 

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - H

Knights -A

Eels - H

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 26pts with the best +/- in NRL. Would be favourites to win at least 4, and their 3 toughest games are all at home. I'll guess 6 wins, finishing 2nd or 3rd on 38pts.

 

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Knights - H

Panthers - H

Sea Eagles - A

Cowboys - A

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 24pts  I wouldn't be surprised if they won 6 or 7 of their last 8. This would put them 3-5th depending on +/-, which currently is only +34. A big win  is needed to improve their +/- otherwise they could end equal 3rd but 6th on +/-

 

 

5.Melbourne Storm

 

Dragons at Napier (New Zealand);

Tigers - A

Titans - H

Sharks - A

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Tough to predict. Nobody wants to play the Sharks at Cronulla. The Titans have shown glimpses of quality this year and even Wests, at full strength at Leichhardt could be a problem. I think they'll win 5/7, end up with 32pts and sit 4/5th.

 

 

6. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Sharks at Belmore Oval;

Roosters - A

Broncos - A

Titans at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 22pts they have 4 probable wins and 4 games against teams higher than them. Their +/- is only +10 so they can't afford any big losses

 

7. New Zealand Warriors
 

Sea Eagles - H

Sharks - H

Dragons at Westpac Stadium, Wellington (NZ)

Panthers - A

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting on 22pts. If they win all their home games (+ the game in Wellington) they finish on 30pts, probably 5th or 6th. Every away win could equate to one extra rung on the finishing ladder. They are one win clear of 9th and 2 wins clear of the 3 teams eq.10th

 

 

 

8. Cronulla Sharks

 

Bulldogs at Belmore

Warriors - A

Cowboys - H

Storm - H

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

4 home games will help but the Sharks have a poor +/- of -24pts. I think they'll win 4 but, without a couple of 30pt wins, may well miss the finals.

 

 

9. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Melbourne at Napier (New Zealand);

Newcastle - H

Warriors at Westpac Stadium (Wellington);

Broncos - A

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

If the Dragons beat the 4 teams below them, they could finish on 28pts and need to rely on points difference to squeeze into 8th.

 

 

 

 

10. Canberra Raiders

 

Panthers - A

Cowboys - A

Tigers - H

Sea Eagles - H

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 18pts with a very favourable draw - only one game against a higher team. They could win 6 and finish on 30pts. Their +/- is +6, better than most of the teams around them. They could finish 6th although every loss (apart from Panthers away and Cows away) would equate to one rung lower on the ladder.

 

 

 

11. Parramatta Eels
 

Cowboys - A

Titans - A

Panthers at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - A

Sharks - H

Raiders - H

 

In a season that's gone from bad to worse there's a small ray of light on the horizon: it'll be over soon

 

 

12. Penrith  Panthers
 

Raiders - H

Rabbitohs - A

Eels at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Warriors - H

Dragons - A

Raiders - A

Knights - H

 

 

13. Manly Sea Eagles
 

Warriors - A

Broncos at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Raiders - A

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Currently on 16pts, can still make the finals but need to win at least 6/8 and erase their -50 pts difference. Probably finish 10th or 11th

 

 

14. Newcastle Knights

 

Rabbitohs - A

Dragons - A

Roosters - H

Tigers - A

Storm - A

Bulldogs - H

Panthers - A

 

Also on 16pts with a very tough draw. I think the Knights are still strong contenders for the Spoon although West, Parra and Titans will make it hard for them.

 

 

15.Gold Coast Titans
 

Broncos - A

Eels - H

Storm - A

Bulldogs at Central Coast Stadium

Raiders - H

Dragons - H

Cowboys - A

 

Currently on 16pts but I can only see 1, maybe 2 wins ahead. If they can get their A team on the paddock they can avoid the Wooden Spoon and possibly finish 12th.

 

 

16. Wests Tigers

 

Roosters - H

Storm - H

Raiders - A

Knights - H

Sharks - A

Warriors - H

Dragons at ANZ Stadium

 

Currently on 14pts. Maybe 3 wins, bottom 4. Rapidly firming in the Wooden Spoon betting. Based on the information coming out of the club, re: salary cap issues, we only need to wait until 2018 then everything will be .............

[Graham]

My top 8:

1 Broncos

2 Roosters 

3 Cowboys

4 Storm

5 Rabbitohs

6 Warriors

7 Bulldogs

8 Dragons/Raiders - cop out!

[Farmduck]

This was my tip before the season started:

 

1. Bulldogs
2. Roosters
3. Bunnies
4. Cows
5. Penrith
6. St George
7. Cronulla
8. Manly

 

I misread it badly but I might still get 3 right - Roosters, Bunnies and Cows. I think the Broncos have a big enough lead to win the Minor Premiership but I'm still not sure about the Cows. Souths and Roosters are in better form.

 

I think St George can win a few if they get their best 13 back on the field and the Raiders could also win a few by big margins.
 

[Graham]

You've reminded me to look back at my pre-season predictions Farmduck.

 

Here's the final top eight prediction I posted in the thread on this forum on 28th February 2015

 

G Las D:

 

1 Rabbitohs

2 Roosters

3 Bulldogs

4 Cowboys

5 Panthers

6 Storm

7 Warriors

8 Broncos

 

So then I picked seven of the eightish I have picked now though fair to say shuffled about. I suppose though it could still work out very similar in the end to that very early prediction.

Panthers are the ones currently down in 12th but I suppose could sneak in the eight if others crumble. I didn't foresee the big injury problems that have blighted Penrith's season.

Of course as your statistics and fixture summaries show things could change radically yet!

[Farmduck]

Oddly, the Panthers/Raiders game could be the most important this weekend. If Penrith win that game then the winner of the Dogs/Sharks game won't affect the top 8 - even if the Sharks lose, they'll stay in the 8.

 

I'm sure some of the top 8 are worried about the Sharks. Over the years I've seen some dreadful weather at Cronulla home games and it's nearly always the Sharks who grind out an ugly win. The Cows and Storm both have games coming up in the Shire.

[Aussie Bronco]

My Top 8 before the season started:
1. Storm
2. Cowboys
3. Roosters

4. Rabbitohs

5. Panthers

6. Bulldogs

7. Broncos

8. Sea Eagles

 

What I believe the final 8 will be now:
1. Broncos
2. Cowboys
3. Roosters

4. Storm
5. Rabbitohs
6. Bulldogs
7. Sharks
8. Panthers



 

[Graham]

Panthers look set to miss out.

[Farmduck]

We all thought Panthers would make the 8. They've used 28 players which is slightly on the high side and the only ones who've played every game are Campbell-Gillard, Latimore and McKendry, all props. They're good players but they're grafters. It's all the attacking players who've been injured. I was hoping Moylan would have a big year and I thought he was next in line for Origin after Dugan.

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 20. I've put a line through Wests Tigers and won't bother with them anymore. The Knights and Titans are still possibles, although if they lose this week I'll cross them off.

 

 

 

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Sea Eagles at Central Coast Stadium;

Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium;

Dragons at Suncorp Stadium;

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

Currently on 34pts need only 1 wins to nail down a top 4 spot. I think they'll win at least 3 and finish on 40pts - 1st

 

 

2.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Raiders - H

Sharks - A

Rabbitohs - H

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Finished Round 20 on 32pts.  May try to rest Origin players and have 5 games against bottom-half teams so should finish on at least 38-40pts - probably 2nd or 3rd because their +/- is 80pts worse than the Broncos and Roosters

 

 

3. Sydney Roosters

 

Bulldogs - H

Knights -A

Eels - H

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 28pts with the best +/- in NRL. Would be favourites to win at least 4, and their 3 toughest games are all at home. I'll guess 6 wins, finishing 2nd or 3rd on 38pts.

 

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Panthers - H

Sea Eagles - A

Cowboys - A

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 26pts  I wouldn't be surprised if they won 4 or 5 of their last 6. This would put them 3-5th depending on +/-, which currently is only +80. They need to run in a few points because the Storm have a +/- of +86 and a softer run.

 

 

5.Melbourne Storm

 

Tigers - A

Titans - H

Sharks - A

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Tough to predict. Nobody wants to play the Sharks at Cronulla. But they play the 3 bottom teams and the 2 top teams. My guess: they'll finish on 34, equal with Souths but better on +/- because of the games against Knights, Tigers and Titans.

 

 

 

 

6. Cronulla Sharks

 

Warriors - A

Cowboys - H

Storm - H

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

 

Currently on 24pts. Aside from the win at Belmore, the best thing to happen to the Sharks this weekend was Shaun Johnson's injury. 4 home games will help but the Sharks have a poor +/- of -22pts. I think they'll win 4  and, if the Warriors fold, they will make the finals.

 

 

7. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Roosters - A

Broncos - A

Titans at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 22pts they have 3 probable wins and 3 games against teams higher than them. Their +/- is only +8 so they can't afford any big losses. Like the Sharks, they will be hoping for a Warriors collapse and for only Canberra to come out of the bottom 8 pack. This would see them salvage 8th or maybe 7th but they need to run up 50pts against the Titans and/or Knights.

 

8. New Zealand Warriors
 

Sharks - H

Dragons at Westpac Stadium, Wellington (NZ)

Panthers - A

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting on 22pts. Let's be brutally frank: when Shaun Johnson's leg went "Snap!!!" so did the Warriors' season. They can probably get 2-3 more wins purely on their forward power but their points diff is -17 and both St George and the Raiders can leapfrog them with just 1 win. They could drop to 10th by next Monday.

 

 

 

9. Canberra Raiders

 

Cowboys - A

Tigers - H

Sea Eagles - H

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 20pts with a very favourable draw - only one game against a higher team. They could win 5 and finish on 30pts. Their +/- is +16, better than most of the teams around them. They could finish 6th although every loss (apart from Cows away) would equate to one rung lower on the ladder.

 

 

10. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Newcastle - H

Warriors at Westpac Stadium (Wellington);

Broncos - A

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

If the Dragons beat the 4 teams below them, they could finish on 28pts and need to rely on points difference to squeeze into 8th. Suddenly the Warriors game looks much more winnable too. They could end on 30pts, +/- wouldn't matter and they may even be 6th, which seems incredible, the way they've been playing. Which just goes to show, you don't have to be great. You just have to be 1 point better than the other guy.

 

 

 

11. Manly Sea Eagles

 

Broncos at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Raiders - A

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Jump 2 spots after the win in NZ. Currently on 18pts, can still make the finals but need to win at least 5/6 and erase their -48 pts difference. Probably finish 10th or 11th (maybe 9th, depending on the Warriors)

 

 

 

12. Penrith  Panthers
 

Rabbitohs - A

Eels at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Warriors - H

Dragons - A

Raiders - A

Knights - H

 

on 18pts and -77 pt.diff. Now that Wallace is gone for the season, I think it's all over. Moylan and Mansour will be back for the last 2 or 3 games but that won't be enough. They need to win 5/6 and get their +/- into the black but I can't see that happening.

 

13. Parramatta Eels
 

Titans - A

Panthers at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - A

Sharks - H

Raiders - H

 

The only positive for the Eels is that Sandow's finally gone and, they probably won't win the Spoon this year. Someone needs to go through Parra management with an AK47.

 

 

14. Newcastle Knights

 

Dragons - A

Roosters - H

Tigers - A

Storm - A

Bulldogs - H

Panthers - A

 

On the bright side, they won the First Coach Sacked this year, but only by 1 day. I think the Knights are still strong contenders for the Spoon although Wests and Titans will make it hard for them.

 

 

15.Gold Coast Titans
 

Eels - H

Storm - A

Bulldogs at Central Coast Stadium

Raiders - H

Dragons - H

Cowboys - A

 

Currently on 16pts but I can only see 1, maybe 2 wins ahead. If they can get their A team on the paddock they can avoid the Wooden Spoon and possibly finish 12th. The only thing currently in their favour is the poor form of Wests, Knights and Parra.

[Graham]

Current positions as we move towards R21 with comments:

 

1 Broncos - in pole position.8/8 in recent games. Peaked too early?

 

2. Cowboys - not consistently brilliant but they lose very infrequently. JT deserves a GF win?

 

3. Roosters - 6/6 recently. Best defence in the league to date. They are a big threat and in good form.

 

4. Souths - Coming into form at the right time?

 

5. Storm - not always convincing, but in the first instance aiming for a top four finish

 

6. Sharks - Battlers who now seem to be able to grind out wins

 

7. Bulldogs - a big side but they seem to be on the slide

 

8. Warriors - SJ injury could be the final straw in their hopes for a top eight place, but ...

 

Canberra, Dragons, Panthers and even Manly are still living in hopes.

Manly in particular have had a tough season often from their own making.

They are now proving defiant in the face of adversity and might step up for Toovey.

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 21. This week the Newcastle Knights disappear from this thread. They have shuffled off their mortal coils, IMO.

 

 

 

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium;

Dragons at Suncorp Stadium;

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

Still on top on 34pts need only 1 wins to nail down a top 4 spot. I think they'll win at least 3 and finish on 40pts - 1st The Cows are now equal on competition points but are 40pts worse on +/-

 

 

2.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Sharks - A

Rabbitohs - H

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Finished Round 21 on 34pts.  May try to rest Origin players and have 3 games against bottom-half teams so should finish on at least 40pts - could still finish 1, 2 or 3. Their +/- is 40pts worse than Bronx and 90pts worse than Roosters.

 

 

3. Sydney Roosters

 

Knights -A

Eels - H

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 30pts with the best +/- in NRL. Would be favourites to win at least 4, and their 2 toughest games are at home. I'll guess 4 wins, finishing 2nd or 3rd on 38pts.

 

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Sea Eagles - A

Cowboys - A

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 28pts  I wouldn't be surprised if they won 3 or 4 of their last 5. This would put them 3-5th depending on +/-, which currently is only +84. Wests Tigers did them a favour last week, messing with the Storms +/-.

 

 

 

5. Cronulla Sharks

 

Cowboys - H

Storm - H

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

 

Currently on 26pts. 4 home games will help but the Sharks have a poor +/- of -18pts. I think they'll win 3 and even 2 will nail down a finals spot.

 

 

6.Melbourne Storm

 

Titans - H

Sharks - A

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Tough to predict. I originally tipped the Storm to miss the finals but they play the 2 bottom teams and the 2 top teams and only need two wins to finish on 28pts with a very good +/- because of the games against Knights and Titans. My tip: still dunno. Could finish on 30 pts and 6th or 32 pts and 5th.

 

 

 

7. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Warriors at Westpac Stadium (Wellington);

Broncos - A

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

Jump 3 spots from last week. More importantly, they found some point-scoring form. Currently on 22pts so they need at least 3 wins. The good side? Every minute matters for St George. Five wins - they might finish 5th. 4 wins - 6th, 3 wins - 7th, well, you get the picture.

 

 

8. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Broncos - A

Titans at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 22pts they have 3 probable wins and 2 games against teams higher than them. Their +/- is only -2 so they can't afford any big losses. Like the Sharks, they will be hoping for a Warriors collapse and for only Canberra to come out of the bottom 8 pack. This would see them salvage 8th or maybe 7th but they need to run up 50pts against the Titans and/or Knights.

 

9. New Zealand Warriors
 

Dragons at Westpac Stadium, Wellington (NZ)

Panthers - A

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting on 22pts. Weren't they 4th just 2 weeks ago? Mmmm Being very optimistic, I can see 3 wins to get them to 28 competition points but they also need a couple of big wins or their +/- will see them miss the playoffs.

 

 

10. Canberra Raiders

 

Tigers - H

Sea Eagles - H

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 20pts with a very favourable draw - no games against higher teams. They could win 5 and finish on 30pts. Their +/- is +8, better than most of the teams around them. They could finish 6th although every loss would equate to one rung lower on the ladder.

 

 

 

 

 

11. Manly Sea Eagles

 

Rabbitohs - H

Raiders - A

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Hold their spot with the win over the Broncos. Currently on 20pts, can still make the finals but need to win at least 4/5 and erase their -18 pts difference. Probably finish 10th or 11th (maybe 9th, depending on the Warriors)

 

 

 

12. Penrith  Panthers
 

Eels at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Warriors - H

Dragons - A

Raiders - A

Knights - H

 

on 18pts and -81 pt.diff. I predict 3 wins and Panthers fall short.

 

13. Parramatta Eels
 

Panthers at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - A

Sharks - H

Raiders - H

 

The only goal now is to avoid a trifecta of wooden spoons.

 

 

 

14.Gold Coast Titans
 

Storm - A

Bulldogs at Central Coast Stadium

Raiders - H

Dragons - H

Cowboys - A

 

Currently on 18pts but I think this week will be the last in this thread. An early 20th century Afghan Foreign Minister is credited with the line, "Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires." The Gold Coast is definitely the Afghanistan of sporting clubs. Worst AFL club, A-League soccer club had their licence pulled and the current Titans are the 6th incarnation of the Gold Coast RL team. The weirdest part? Nobody knows why. Is it possible for an Australian city to be populated by half a million people with no interest in sport?

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 22. Losses to Brisbane and the Cows have left the door open for the Chooks to win the Minor Premiership. This week I'm ignoring the bottom 4. They could finish on 26pts in a multi-way tie for 8th but they all have such bad +/- that it would just be teasing them cruelly to finish equal 7th or 8th on competition points.

 

 

 

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Dragons at Suncorp Stadium;

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

Still on top on 34pts need only 1 win to nail down a top 4 spot. I think they'll win at least the 2 home games and they are still 50pts ahead of the Cows on +/-

 

2.North Queensland Cowboys

 

 

Rabbitohs - H

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Blew their big chance to move to the top by losing to Cronulla, but still on 34pts. Have 3 games against bottom-half teams so should finish on at least 40pts - I'm tipping a 1st or 2nd finish. Their +/- is 53pts worse than Bronx and 123pts worse than Roosters.

 

 

3. Sydney Roosters

 

 

Eels - H

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 32pts with the best +/- in NRL. Would be favourites to win at least 2, and their 2 toughest games are at home. I'll guess 4 wins, finishing 1st or 2nd on 40pts.

 

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Cowboys - A

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 28pts, equal with the Sharks but 70pts better on +/-  Very tough finish to the season. Win all 4, finish 2nd? Lose all 4, finish 7th?

 

 

5. Cronulla Sharks

 

Storm - H

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

 

Currently on 28pts but amazingly still have a negative +/- of -6. Even the Knights have scored more points this year than Cronulla !?@?#?$?#?   4 home games will help but they need to score a lot more points to secure a top 4 spot. Souths' tough run home may let the Sharks slip into 4th. Amazing, really.

 

 

 

6.Melbourne Storm

 

Sharks - A

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

I, like any right-thinking NRL fan, think the Storm should have been kicked out of the comp for their salary cap rorts, so I'm biased when trying to assess or predict their onfield performance. Currently on 26pts with the equal-third-best +/- in the league, I think they'll win at least 2, finish 6th OR win 3 or 4 and overtake Souths and Cronulla to finish 4th.

 

 

 

7. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Broncos - A

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

Currently on 24 pts with +/- of 46, better than any of the teams behind them. They should win at least 2 and stay in 7th. 4 wins might get them to 5th.

 

 

8. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

 

Titans at Central Coast Stadium

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 24pts they have 3 probable wins and the Bunnies. Their +/- is 0 so they can't afford any big losses. For no particular reason beyond history, I think they'll finish 6th.

 

 

9. Manly Sea Eagles

 

 

Raiders - A

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Their continued late-season resurgence sees them jump 2 rungs this week and sit on 22pts. I think they'll get 2 more wins and finish 9th. In their favour is the fact that the 3 teams directly above them have a few tough games but their +/- is 40pts worse than the Dragons and 88pts worse than the Storm.

 

10. New Zealand Warriors
 

Panthers - A

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting on 22pts.  I think they were 4th just 3 weeks ago. Three away games will make it tough but 3 wins could get them to equal 8th. Current +/- of -57 will hurt them.

 

 

11. Canberra Raiders

 

Sea Eagles - H

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 20pts with a very favourable draw - only Manly are currently higher on the ladder. Even so, with a current +/- of only +6, they need 4 wins.

 

12. Parramatta Eels
 

Roosters - A

Sea Eagles - A

Sharks - H

Raiders - H

 

Equation is very simple to make 8th: 4 wins by margins of 30pts.

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 23 saw the Cows and Roosters swap spots 2 & 3 and the Storm and Sharks also swapped spots.

 

1. Brisbane Broncos

 

Roosters at Allianz Stadium;

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

On 36pts and probably can't drop below 3rd unless they lose all 3 AND the Bunnies win all 3 by 20pts.My tip: They'll lose to the Roosters and Souths and finish 3rd.

 

 

2. Sydney Roosters

 

Broncos -H

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 34pts with the best +/- in NRL. Very good chance to win 3/3 and finish on top. This would make them the first coach and team to win 3 consecutive Minor Premierships since the Storm 2006-08 (struck off for salary cap cheating) and Manly 1995-97 under Bob Fulton.

 

3.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Warriors - A

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

Looked weak against the Rabbitohs. This brings me to an important stat about the Cows' season. They have played other top 8 sides 10 times for 5-5 results. They are lucky because the other top 4 sides all play each other while the Cows should get 2 solid wins. I think they'll finish equal 1st on points but 2nd on +/-

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Bulldogs - H

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 30pts. Technically they could finish in a 3-way or 4-way tie for 1st, if other results went their way. This would probably see them 3rd on +/-  I think they'll get 2 more wins and finish 4th.

 

 

5.Melbourne Storm

 

Knights - H

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Sitting on 28pts, equal with the Sharks but with a tougher schedule. If they win 3 they could finish 4th but probably 5th. If they win 2 then probably 6th. If they win 1, 7th. Even if they lost all 3, their +/- would save them and they'd run 8th.

 

 

6. Cronulla Sharks

 

Tigers - H

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

Currently on 28pts but the easiest run of any top 8 team. They should win all 3 and finish 5th although if Souths drop 2 games, the Sharks might squeak into 4th.

 

 

7. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Rabbitohs - H

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 26pts and should win at least 2/3 which could see them probably 6th. The Storm have a +/-  almost 100pts better than the Dogs so their upward mobility is limited. The Dragons could win 3/3 and leapfrog the Dogs. (or should that be leapdog the Dogs. I used to have a Leap Dog - she'd only come when you called her about once every 4 years.)

 

 

8. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Panthers - H

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

Equal with Manly on 24pts and only 16pts better +/- so the 26pt loss to the Broncos hurt them badly. They have 3 winnable games and will need a Manly loss or some big winning margins to secure 8th spot.

 

 

9. Manly Sea Eagles

 

Eels - H

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

Their undeserved win over the Raiders sees them level with St George on points. They have a couple of tough game ahead and, if they can't win 3, they need to win 2 by big margins and hope for a St George loss.

 

10. New Zealand Warriors
 

Cowboys - H

Tigers - A

Bulldogs - A

 

Currently sitting on 22pts.  They've only held onto 10th spot because of the refereeing blunder in the Raiders game. Who knows? They could go winless and be overtaken by the Raiders (and possibly even Parra and the Panthers.)

 

 

11. Canberra Raiders

 

Titans- A

Panthers - H

Eels - A

 

Currently sitting on 20pts with a very favourable draw. Even so, they would need the 3 teams above them to go winless for the end of the season.

 

 

Penrith (12th) and Parra (13th) are currently equal with the Raiders on 20 competition points but their +/- are so bad they can't make it. Even if they won all their remaining games the best they could do is a 5-way tie for 8th position on 26pts. To get 8th, the Panthers would need winning margins of 30 and the Eels 40+

[Farmduck]

1. Sydney Roosters

 

Sea Eagles - A

Rabbitohs - H

 

Currently on 36pts with the best +/- in NRL. Very good chance to win 2/2 and finish on top. While the loss of Pearce and JWH will hurt them, they have plenty of other players in form.

 

 

2. Brisbane Broncos

  

Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium;

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

On 36pts and probably can only finish in the top 3. Two tough games. Against top 8 teams this year the Bronx are 5W-6L. I think they'll win the home game and finish second on 38pts, ahead of the Cows on +/- by 40-50pts.

 

3.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Storm - A

Titans - H

 

You would expect the Storm to bounce back after the embarrassing loss to Newcastle and without Morgan, I think the Cows will only win the Titans game.This would leave them on 38pts and well behind the top 2 on +/-

 

 

4. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Broncos - H

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 30pts. Can't finish higher than 4th or lower than 8th. With GI only likely to miss 1 game and two tough games to tune them up for the finals I think the Bunnies are still a possibility to win the GF.

 

 

5. Cronulla Sharks

 

Eels - A

Sea Eagles - H

 

Currently on 30pts and 75pts behind the Bunnies on +/- but the easiest run of any top 8 team. They should both and could finish 4th, but also guaranteed a finals spot.

 

6.Melbourne Storm

 

Cowboys - H

Broncos - A

 

Sitting on 28pts, with a +100 points difference, the Storm are comfortable in the top 8. Even if they lose their last 2 they should still be safe as the 3 other teams who could finish on 28pts, Dogs, St George and Manly, would need 30pt+ wins to overtake the Storm's +/- (assuming the Melburnians keep their games close)

 

7. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Knights - A

Warriors - H

 

Currently on 28pts and should win their last 2 which could see them as high as 4th. Lose the last 2 and they may end up locked in equal 8th with Manly. The Dogs can still end up anywhere between 4th and 9th but, on current form, 4th or 5th seems most likely.

 

 

8. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Titans - A

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

The only team on 26pts and, with 2 games against bottom-end teams, should finish on 30pts with a roughly +50 points diff. Probably safe in 8th spot .....BUT, the worst-case scenario sees them missing the finals IF they lose both games and Manly win their 2, OR if the Dragons scrape home by a low margin for only 1 win and the Sea Eagles win both their games by 20pt margins.

 

9. Manly Sea Eagles

 

Roosters - H

Sharks - A

 

The loss to Parra probably ended their season and the loss of Matt Ballin underlined that fact. See the St George breakdown for Manly's unlikely path to the finals.

 

 

UNLIKELY BUT ARITHMETICALLY POSSIBLE SCENARIO:

 

St George lose 2 + Manly win 1 + Warriors win 2 + Parra win 2: Four teams end on 26pts. Warriors and Eels are both currently -100 or worse on pts diff so they would need record wins. I can't see the Warriors getting 50pt away wins against the Tigers and Dogs.

[Farmduck]

1. Sydney Roosters

 

Rabbitohs - H

 

38pts with +/- of +261.

There are several scenarios involving the top 3 but since the Cows would need a 100+ win AND they would need the Broncos to lose, the Cows will finish 3rd. There has never been a 100pt win, or even a 100pt score in NSWRL/ARL/NRL history. (for trivia buffs, the highest-ever score was 91, St George beat Canterbury in 1935):

 

- Roosters win and that's it. Unless the Broncos beat the Storm by 60+ the Roosters win the Minor Premiership, the JJ Giltinan Shield.

- Roosters lose AND Broncos win, Broncos finish on top.

- Both teams lose, the Roosters finish on top

2. Brisbane Broncos

   

Storm at Suncorp Stadium

 

On 38pts with +/- of +202. See above

 

3.North Queensland Cowboys

 

Titans - H

 

36pts and +103. Will finish third even if they lose by 100pts.

4. Cronulla Sharks

 

Sea Eagles - H

 

The only team on 32pts which is important because of their points differential of -5. They need a win because a loss would mean that any of the 3 teams below them could leapfrog them on +/-. Even a draw would guarantee 4th and a 1pt win would tie a big bow around 4th spot.

 

 

5.Melbourne Storm

 

Broncos - A

 

Sitting on 30pts, with a +112 points difference, a win over the Bronx would poosibly move them to 4th, if Cronulla lose, whereas a loss could see them drop to 6th or 7th. 6th assumes the Dogs win and Bunnies lose.

 

 

6. Canterbury Bulldogs

 

Warriors - H

 

30pts and +38. Like all the teams from 4-7, they could still finish somewhere in that range.

- if the Sharks, Storm and Bunnies lose, Dogs finish 4th (if they win)

- if the Sharks win and the Storm and Bunnies lose, Dogs finish 5th

- if the Sharks and Storm win but Bunnies lose, Dogs finish 6th.

- if the Dogs lose against the Warriors and the Sharks, Storm and Bunnies all lose too (not impossible) Dogs will stay on 6th although the margins would come into it because they are only 10pts better than Souths

 

My prediction (WARNING: I am coming last on the Tipping Comp and I've only cracked the 50% mark in the last couple of weeks):

- Sharks beat Manly, Broncos beat Storm, Dogs beat Warriors, Easts beat Souffs - Canterbury finish 5th.

 

7. South Sydney Rabbitohs

 

Roosters - A

 

Currently on 30pts and +28.

Worst case scenario: they lose and finish 7th

Best case scenario: they win and Sharks, Storm and Bulldogs all lose - Souths finish 4th

 

8. St George Illawarra Dragons

 

Tigers at ANZ Stadium

 

26pts and +25. They can't get any higher and would need a loss and a Manly win with combined aggregate margins of 61+pts to lose 8th position.

The Dragons have played the other top 8 teams 13 times this year and only won 4. This weekend will probably be their last win of the season.

 

9. Manly Sea Eagles

 

Sharks - A

 

24pts and -36. Three 4-pt losses and 1-pt loss have kept the Sea Eagles from making the finals for the first time in 10 years. Along the way they've beaten the Storm twice, beat the Sharks, beat Souths by 20 and the Broncos by 30. To make it worse, the Cows and Dogs games were 2 of their 4-pt losses. Clealry, if they could have fielded their A Team in the finals they would have had a big chance, probably better than St George.  If I was a professional sportist, a season like this would keep me up at nights.

[Graham]

So  6 of the 8 games in R26 will settle the all important final positions in the league.

This has been a difficult season to predict. Injuries to players has been an important factor, no doubt about that.

Look at how Warriors have fallen off the cliff recently.

Panthers have struggled to put their A Team out.

Rabbitohs have struggled recently too.

Sharks are the surprise package in not only getting into the 8 but in how far up they could be given their poor points difference.

Storm are up against it having to travel to Broncos with only a short turn round.

Rabbitohs look like a shadow of the team 12 months ago.

If it is Roosters who take the premiership then hats off to them. They have timed their run well and been consistent when it counts.

 

Let's see what happens though in R26 - there could yet be some surprises!

[Farmduck]

Panthers have struggled to put their A Team out.

I'm watching NRL360 and Ikin or Kent just said that Panthers have had Moylan, Segeyaro, Wallace and Soward all on the field together for 11 minutes this season.

[Graham]

Astonishing!

 

Hope Soward turned out to be Ok after his almost KO.

 

Panthers have an injured set of players that could have been a first team:

 

INJURED PANTHERS 13: 1 Matt Moylan, 2 George Jennings, 3 Dean Whare, 4 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 5 Robert Jennings, 6 Jamie Soward, 7 Peter Wallace, 8 Brent Kite, 9 Isaac John, 10 Nigel Plum, 11 Bryce Cartwright, 12 Jamal Idris, 13 Elijah Taylor.

[Graham]

Found this - as above in picture form: