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Father Ted

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  1. Does anyone seriously think the stupid remarks will stop when becomes PM?
  2. If Johnson were to take us out via prorogation or using Bank Holidays he would lose a Vote of No Confidence the moment Parliament sits. It would be the end of the Tory Government and Johnson could well lose his own seat. Although we would be out of the EU and probably without a deal. It does seem to me that he's unlikely to use any of those mechanisms to get us out of the EU. The way things are going today he will be lucky to survive any amount of time. Four cabinet ministers will resign together with up to a dozen junior ministers. They will resign either because they don't like Johnson or don't want a No Deal or both. What yesterday's vote showed is that Tory MP's don't have to vote against their party but merely abstain. Johnson's tenure as PM might be very short indeed.
  3. Prior to joining the EEC/Common Market we were in EFTA also with Spain, Portugal, R o Ireland and I think Denmark and Austria. When we joined the CM the R o Ireland and Denmark came in with us at the same time, Austria declined. Spain and Portugal could not as they were military dictatorships. Going on holiday to Spain and Portugal then was a completely different thing than now. The Civil Guard ruled everything and God help anyone who was thrown in a Spanish jail. Sometimes never to be seen again!
  4. The Lib Dems are due to announce their new leader the day prior to the Conservatives. It has been suggested that they will also announce one or two Tory MP's who will have deserted the Conservatives and joined the Lib Dems. If so the Tory that's the Gov't's parliamentary majority gone. Should the Tory's lose the Brecon by election then they will be a minority Gov't. At some point Labour will go for a Vote of No Confidence. It could be that and also the last point at which MP's can vote against a No Deal. How many would vote against their own Gov't we don't know but some would but equally as crucial could be those that abstain from voting for the Gov't. That would be devastating for the new PM and Brexit. A successful VoNC means an election. Goodness knows what the outcome of that would be.
  5. They should have to give a month's notice at least. They will always have the change of fixture option but I'd hope SKY can be persuaded when new deals are being negotiated to give longer notice in future.
  6. Tough call that one. Does he go in 2020 and then amidst local problems identify players he wants for 2021. Or does he leave it until 2021 when he can have a clear out then and bring in players. 2021 may be too late, players look for deals mid season. perhaps he'd better be over there 2020. Whichever way, a massive loss for Saints although not entirely unexpected.
  7. It was McMillan who did the ground work that at first led to two French vetos in '63 and '68 then Heath taking us in the Common Market in 1973. The current MP's and Gov't had no idea what happened to our trade in the 1948-1973 period. Johnson is a life long remainer who is pretending to be a Leaver to become the next PM. His tenure could be very short lived!
  8. Again, no doubt Johnson will the next PM but for how long? Yesterday's papers were saying the Lib Dems will announce their new leader July 24th the day before the Torys. When the Lib Dems tell us who it will be they will also announce the defection of two Torys MP's to their party. August 1st is the day of the Brecon by- election where the Lib Dems are expected to take the seats from the Torys. Anything like that and the new PM's parliamentary majority has gone. Just a matter of then waiting for the Vote of No Confidence. Apparently the Torys whips have already told Johnson and Hunt that it is very likely the VoNC will be lost! If there are two defections the day before the new PM takes office how can he go to the Queen and state he can form a Government? So, how long will the new PM last, a day, a week, interesting times ahead.
  9. So any thoughts on how our farmers will fare if there's a No Deal and they face a 38% tariff? Interesting that one of the greatest advocates of No Deal was Esther McVey. I spoke to her when she was our MP and she didn't know which roads went from Greater Manchester to Yorkshire. Now she's an expert on World Trade, or so she would have you believe.
  10. Johnson would have to involve the Queen to suspend (prorogue) Parliament. There's no chance he'll get away with that. What exactly what he will do who knows but I can't see him getting away with suspending Parliament.
  11. Johnson will be our next PM. The question which I'm interested in though is - For how long? His performance over our Ambassador hasn't won him any friends in the HoC and it will be those MP's who will vote in the Vote of No Confidence when ever it comes. Any thoughts on when that will be?
  12. Worldwide shipping uses 2% of Global co2 emmisions. Our trade with India, China Aus and NZ is very little. Our main exports are to the EU 44% USA around 42%. The idea that increased exports to China, India, Aus & NZ can make up the loss of trade from leaving the EU is for the birds. Besides a new trade deal with India, Aus & NZ will come against their demands for a massive increase in permanent settlement visas for their citizens. Especially India. Just after the Brexit referendum result the first thing May did was to get on a plane to India as they had said they were ready to agree a free trade deal with the UK. She got there and heard the Indian PM say he wanted a FTA and then demand a massive increase in visas for Indian people. May was horrified at the numbers and declined, she was back home two days later without any FTA with India.
  13. The only thing that will stop all this will be a Vote of No Confidence in the Gov't which is carried.
  14. They may lose heavily in the Welsh by election 1st August. The Remain parties have aligned and chosen a Lin Dem, The Torys and Brexit are both standing so will split the Leave vote. So who, with Brexit the big topic, would vote Labour? Labour could take a hammering and Corbyn would be held responsible.
  15. So the next ambassador will only write to Johnson telling him what he wants to read. Where are the "Led by Donkeys" people.
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