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Wholly Trinity

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Everything posted by Wholly Trinity

  1. I assumed that the explanation that she was from Cleator Moor was sufficient. I think she fancied me and then when it was obvious the feeling was not mutual she punched me on the chin. Either that or it's actually part of the elaborate Cumbrian courtship ritual.
  2. I lived close to Distington for 6 months, I used to drive through it while I was on placement in Workington. The place was called 'Winder' but it didn't appear on any maps, it was basically a few farm houses on the road to the quarry. The nearest pub was within walking distance in Frizington where I was famously punched by a girl from Cleator Moor. Dog & Duck?? can't remember, 1989 was a long time ago. *just looked and Winder now appears on maps, woo-hoo progress.
  3. It seems everything is organised at kabupaten level so I can see massive differences in application. Somewhere like Makassar is impossible to police and control. Most things are for show, the reality could get nasty. The problem we have up here is with illegal workers sneaking back into the country from Malaysia etc. I think they've set up school lessons for all levels on TVRI. Not seen any as I no longer have a TV.
  4. Indeed Indonesia is difficult to predict how it will go. It has the potential to be devastating. The latest figures are: 4,557 cases 3,778 under treatment 380 recovered 399 deaths. There is a population of 260 million on a sprawling archipelago of 17,000 islands. However, 2/3 of that population live on the very densely populated island of Java, where the majority of cases have been reported. (315 of 399 deaths in Java, with 204 in the capital Jakarta alone). There is an advantage for isolation in that transport between the islands can be closed down. The responsibility for dealing with the outbreak has been delegated to local district governments. This means the rules and their application are very mixed. They did start self-isolation, social distancing fairly early in the piece, but there is practically zero capacity to deal with any severe cases. I'm in my 5th week of working from home. The stats from the official government source look rather strange. Testing is generally not available. The numbers are relatively small, for now, but the shape of the graph for new cases is very worrying considering, in theory, action has already been taken. http://covid19.bnpb.go.id Also, it is worrying that of those positive cases, more have died (meninggal) than have recovered (sembuh). This could be for a variety of reasons. It could be that they're only testing critical cases or that the lack of ICU facilities means that anyone who becomes really ill will die. The big challenge will be next month when, traditionally, people travel back to their home town / village for the end of Ramadan (Mudik). Politically, it will be very difficult to prevent this, but it could be just at the worst time for spread of the virus. The curve needs to be made extremely flat here, but how long can the current lock-down situation be sustained?
  5. So, I've added yesterday's data and a 3-day rolling average to more clearly show the trend of the mortality rate of the selected countries. It would appear that the isolation actions are already having an effect in all countries except the USA. Keep it up people. Stay safe.
  6. For something to do, I was messing around with the data from the BBC/Johns Hopkins to try to extract some comparisons. (No log scales ? ) By comparing mortality rate to positive tests, you can get a measure of the level of testing done by each country. i.e. lower % implies more testing is being done (testing all with symptoms rather than just those who are hospitalised). There seem to be two clear groups. By comparing daily mortality rate, you can get a rough measure of how much the spread is being controlled. (no data for France for 31/3) or how much the curve is being flattened. (with a week or so behind actions) It seems South Korea and Germany were quick off the mark and doing lots of testing, whereas the USA have upped their testing now, but their death rate has not yet responded to the isolation actions. Other countries seem to have turned the corner and the death rates are now levelling off or declining. My own particular interest, Indonesia, however, is a somewhat different situation, and would appear from the stats to be under control, but this belies the reality, which could get awfully messy very quickly. There has been some level of lock down fairly early in the piece, but mostly it's just ostrich tactics. Officially, there are currently 2,273 cases and 198 deaths. The health system has zero capacity to deal with any kind of outbreak, particularly outside the big cities. One thing that prevents any quality data is that there is no such thing as a death certificate and no requirement for a post-mortem examination or cause of death. People who die are being wrapped in plastic and buried without being tested. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52124193
  7. I was the same. My dad had an motorbike accident when he was 21. All my mates had push bikes, I had to walk/run everywhere. Ironically, I'm the only one of us to now ride a motorbike.
  8. Brings back fond memories of being a student in the 80s Not only trying to complete a lab experiment correctly, but then plotting the results on log paper WITH A STONKING HANGOVER mistakes were made
  9. Presactly. Which is the kind of question the press should be asking the government. ?
  10. some more interesting maths to highlight when the exponential growth battle is being won. (Logarithmic scales again, sorry)
  11. I think the big cities, particularly poor people, could suffer badly. The plus point is that they started fairly early with the social distancing campaign (although many are ignoring it) and there is some level of panic/fear. Where I am it is fairly remote and there are no cases, yet. The problem is there is pretty much zero capacity to deal with it if/when it arrives. At present there are zero ventilators in hospitals within 200 miles. The ICUs here are waiting rooms for the morgue, just monitoring not treating. It could be devastating in the big cities like Jakarta. I expect a relatively slow start to infections, but if it takes hold it will be unstoppable in the 4th biggest population in the world. I suspect India will be similar. Personally, I'm not too worried as we have been effectively self-isolating for 2 weeks now. My wife & I are working from home and only going out to buy food 2 or 3 times a week. Other than work, my routine is fairly unchanged. Still feeding the pigs and plenty to do around the house and garden to keep us active. But if you get really ill here, you will die. In some places people have been collapsing and dying in the street. Hardly any testing is taking place and data is unreliable.
  12. A nice simple intro into the maths involved from numberphile.
  13. The softly-softly approach to discourage people from congregating seems to be going well locally (Makassar, Indonesia VID-20200327-WA0005.mp4 )
  14. Another excellent video from 3blue1brown explaining some of the factors influencing spread and the relative efficacy of different actions. The randomness of infection also suggests that some areas could be plain unlucky. It seems clear that to actually reduce the total number of casualties significantly you need to act like south Korea or Germany. Test extensively, track, trace and isolate any contacts. My hope is that the number of asymptomatic cases is much higher than expected and similar to the "Diamond Princess" and that natural immunity along with the sanitation, social distancing and self-isolation steps will suppress the death toll.
  15. Sorry to disappoint you. perhaps the govt email is in your spam file. Due to concerns that cash is a major conduit for the transfer of covid19, major denominations have been replaced by items which can be more readily scrubbed and peeled. A pound coin is now a leek and the fiver has been replaced by the standard beetroot. you was robbed Baldrick is happy that 3 turnips has now replaced the penny. In other news, Jeremy Corbyn has just been announced at the top of the UK rich list.
  16. Where was it? The meat markets in North Sulawesi offer some mysterious fayre of different shapes and sizes. Usually with skin charred making identification difficult. Locally, here in the south, pet dogs which are surplus to requirements are the plat du jour. If sold it's known as RW or neighbourhood meat. Wild boar is more of a delicacy.
  17. ? that's a whole new thread of its own "school photos of the 70s" I've got some belters
  18. Ok, so where are we (you) at the moment? 5018 confirmed cases, rising exponentially 233 deaths The plan to suck it and see and hope for herd immunity was rightly abandoned. Self-isolation and social distancing measures have rightly been increased. Probably with more to follow. This seems unsustainable for the time period required. It has been suggested that the reins will be loosened and tightened as required to manage icu capacity. The timescale of this looks similar to waiting for a vaccine. 1-2 years? I was pondering what else could be done. Would it be possible to run a controlled infection programme alongside the current measures in order to seek that herd immunity? Start small and develop it, if it works. Use volunteers who have been screened by doctors for known risk factors. Use somewhere which can be self-contained and isolated such as a military barracks or holiday camp. Keep the subjects there for 2-3 weeks or until they recover from a confirmed case. With prepations to abandon if it goes wrong. Also include volunteers who have already recovered, to see the effect on them. Use it also as a live lab to further understand the nature of the virus. Herd immunity, it's said, would need 60% population, so about 40 million in the UK. I'm not sure what the nation's capacity is for suitable locations, but if the camps were used on a rolling basis is this possible in a reasonable timescale? Would this speed up a return to normal?
  19. The 10 minutes that made me a Trinity fan for life. David Topliss masterclass.
  20. Just looked them up. I thought they were close. Didn't realise they'd dropped so low.
  21. Are you sure? I thought that it was a requirement of membership of the football league that you had primacy of tenure on your ground. Which means the football clubs always get first dibs. Also, the rumour is that the real reason the stadium opening is delayed is because the football club want to hold the first game there. I suspect "equal partnership" only comes in when the repair and maintenance bills do.
  22. Two things. The attendance for the cas game on Sunday will be interesting. Will people stay away in fear of the virus or flock to it as a "last chance to see"? Secondly, is there a middle ground loophole big enough for SL clubs? What is a mass gathering? Could the clubs limit attendance to 500 per stand and keep them segregated? =2000 fans. Combine this with potential extra income from sky coverage, would this mitigate the worst effects? Straw-clutching maybe and also dependent on keeping all players/staff virus-free. Maybe just for challenge cup games to help that limp along? Not looking good.
  23. That the result of a game is totally independent of the official appointed?
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