Bashar al-Assad about to fall?

[Guest]

With the so called "rebels" gaining more and more ground and winning key battlefield victories against the Syrian army Assad's hold on power has never looked so vulnerable in the 4 year civil war. If he falls what comes next? The jihadists would in effect control the whole of Syria and large parts of Iraq and would almost certainly turn their sights on Lebanon, Jordan and maybe even southern Europe. Syria would become a failed state like afganistan and somalia and other basket case countries like Yemen and Libya, a playground for jihadists to commit genocide against ethnic minorities and oppress Sunni Muslims with their medieval ideology.

[GeordieSaint]

Plenty of life left in the old dog yet whilst he is backed by the Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian trinity.

[Guest]

Plenty of life left in the old dog yet whilst he is backed by the Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian trinity.

I'm not so sure with the rebels advancing on Latakia and Damascus, the whole Syrian civil war is a proxy war with the "rebels" backed by the US, uk, France, turkey, Saudia Arabia and Qatar while as you say Syria backed by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

[GeordieSaint]

I'm not so sure with the rebels advancing on Latakia and Damascus, the whole Syrian civil war is a proxy war with the "rebels" backed by the US, uk, France, turkey, Saudia Arabia and Qatar while as you say Syria backed by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

 

It is wider than Syria. There is a Civil War going on between Sunni and Shia Islam. We (US, UK and France) have very little influence over this and are doing very little about it other than training a small amount of the FSA opposing Assad and bombing ISIL. The likes of Saudi, Qatar, Iran, Russia, Turkey et al are deeply involved and we should leave them to it...

 

As for rebel advances, yep some are occurring but Assad and Hezbollah are making gains in other areas along the Lebanese border for example. As long as Assad is funded, fighting will continue in Syria.

[bowes]

The rumour is Assad will withdraw from the south and possibly Aleppo to focus on Damascus and the Alawite regions. I think the danger lies in if Islamic State and Al Qaeda ever patch up their differences

[Guest]

The rumour is Assad will withdraw from the south and possibly Aleppo to focus on Damascus and the Alawite regions. I think the danger lies in if Islamic State and Al Qaeda ever patch up their differences

As bad as Assad is he is 10,000 times better than the Islamic fundamentalists of any stripe.

[Bedford Roughyed]

It is wider than Syria. There is a Civil War going on between Sunni and Shia Islam. We (US, UK and France) have very little influence over this and are doing very little about it other than training a small amount of the FSA opposing Assad and bombing ISIL. The likes of Saudi, Qatar, Iran, Russia, Turkey et al are deeply involved and we should leave them to it...

 

As for rebel advances, yep some are occurring but Assad and Hezbollah are making gains in other areas along the Lebanese border for example. As long as Assad is funded, fighting will continue in Syria.

 

We are on both sides at the minute.  Opposing Assad etc , Yemen and fighting ISIL all at the same time.

[back to the future]

Ramadi 70 miles west of Baghdad has fallen too

[Bedford Roughyed]

Why do the BBC constantly refer to them as 'so called' Islamic State? I don't recall them using terms like so called IRA. (Not to be confused with Real IRA or Can't believe it's not the IRA)

 

I'd imagine its to avoid the implication that there is an actual Islamic state.

[Guest]

We are on both sides at the minute.  Opposing Assad etc , Yemen and fighting ISIL all at the same time.

The "west's" policy in the middle east is a shambles, supporting the jihadists in Syria while fighting them in Iraq and working with Iran in Iraq while opposing them in Yemen and Syria.

[Guest]

Yeah but regardless of that, that's what they are calling themselves. It's not up to the BBC to argue otherwise.

There's nothing Islamic about ISIS and their "state" isn't internationally recognized.

[Guest]

I'd imagine its to avoid the implication that there is an actual Islamic state.

Exactly. Why give these murdering psychopaths any legitimacy.

[bowes]

So all these guys running round the middle east causing mayhem, often led by Islamic clerics, know nothing about the teachings of the Koran but you do? It always amazes me that people like David Cameron and Obama actually know more about it than they do and can say who is or isn't a true muslim.

It might be unpalatable but they can justify everything they do and indeed can argue that they are the proper Muslims. And they certainly don't care what kaffirs think.

Both the extremist and peaceful sides of Islam have precedents going back to the start of Islam and the Qu'ran actually is a mixture of peaceful ('Mecca') and intolerant ('Medina') texts

[GeordieSaint]

So all these guys running round the middle east causing mayhem, often led by Islamic clerics, know nothing about the teachings of the Koran but you do?

 

People tailor arguments to suit their own perceptions and beliefs. There will be people on this board who would not recognise the Islamic State as a state but on the other hand firmly believe that Palestine or the Donbass People's Republic are functioning states despite both not being internationally recognised. It'll be the same with interpretation of religion.

 

For what it is worth, IS are an abomination and causing mayhem wherever they can. However, they are killing far fewer people than the Assad regime are in Damascus but he is seen as the lesser evil. Again this is people suiting arguments to their own perceptions and beliefs. The best course of action we should seek to achieve in the current Middle East melting pot is containment. We should maintain our vital national interests such as natural resource supplies and other economic functions in the region, ensure we can conduct interdiction operations across the Med and air transport system to protect our own borders whilst conducting the occasional strike operation to ensure the lunatics know we are watching and can strike when we see fit. We should leave them to it and frankly, remembering the vote against striking the Assad regime for using chemical weapons against his own people, is what the UK public want to see happen.

[Bob8]

Why do the BBC constantly refer to them as 'so called' Islamic State? I don't recall them using terms like so called IRA. (Not to be confused with Real IRA or Can't believe it's not the IRA)

If the IRA had referred to themselves as Catholic State, I hope the BBC would have been careful with their use of the term.

[WearyRhino]

So all these guys running round the middle east causing mayhem, often led by Islamic clerics, know nothing about the teachings of the Koran but you do? It always amazes me that people like David Cameron and Obama actually know more about it than they do and can say who is or isn't a true muslim.

It might be unpalatable but they can justify everything they do and indeed can argue that they are the proper Muslims. And they certainly don't care what kaffirs think.

The Spanish Inquisition was done in the name of Christianity. Do their barbaric actions represent Christianity?

[WearyRhino]

At the time they did yes, what's the point of denying it? It grew up a bit eventually and moved on. Islam is still where it was centuries and centuries ago. Reformers are thin on the ground.

Moved on? There are still 'Christians' happy to kill and persecute in what they believe is Christianity. They aren't Christians. Similarly there are Muslims who believe in murder and barbarism in the name of what they believe is Islam. They aren't Muslims.

[GeordieSaint]

As for the numbers game re Assad, give IS time and more weaponry and they will kill more than him and as many as they possibly can. It's early days for them.

 

Don't underestimate the barbarity of Assad's actions in Syria. We tend not to see it over here as the media is fixated on IS and to a much lesser extent Al-Nusra but the Assad regime has been brutal killing people in Syria with everything from armour to air-delivered chemical weapons. Most estimates are between 70-80% of civilian deaths are caused by the regime with IS accounting for about 5-10%. People like to blame the West for Syria and the current mess but it is Assad who has radicalised the population there. Clearly IS are brutal, nasty and a complete abomination of a group and I don't doubt they'd be vicious with anyone who got in their way but Assad has been as or even more brutal and sadistic at times in his actions.

[Bob8]

But the Provisional IRA were/are Catholics and nobody has ever referred to them as so called Catholics.

The name of the IRA was already well known though.  If the IRA had been brand new, it might have been necessary to emphasise they were not the official Irish army.  I imagine this will be explained in history classes in a few years time.

[WearyRhino]

The name of the IRA was already well known though. If the IRA had been brand new, it might have been necessary to emphasise they were not the official Irish army. I imagine this will be explained in history classes in a few years time.

I get the impression that some are not interested in the lessons of history.

[Bob8]

The IRA had existed for years but it wasn't until 'the troubles' that most people had heard of them, so it wasn't as if they actually were new.

I have actually come round to your viewpoint on this.  Just calling them ISIS, as I-sis, would eliminate the issue.

[Bob8]

I have actually come round to your viewpoint on this.  Just calling them ISIS, as I-sis, would eliminate the issue.

Unless they started saying "The so called Isis, who are nothing to do with the Eygptian God or the Oxford river..."