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Saint Toppy

Our new position in the EU

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So, anyway, motor investment halved and the industry is blaming Brexit.

But we haven’t left yet and they also did something in the past that invalidates that conclusion.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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10 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

So, anyway, motor investment halved and the industry is blaming Brexit.

But we haven’t left yet and they also did something in the past that invalidates that conclusion.

They're simply trying to reverse Brexit by making our lives difficult now, they'll come around once they know we're serious.  Effect is cause when defending our headline rush into mediocrity.


“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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It's getting annoying seeing all the Brexiteer MPs and commentators dismissing the forecasts created by the specialist Department for Exiting the EU based entirely on their OPINION.  Go on then, give us your worked forecasts that show it's wrong.  Your opinion is worth less than a disused unrecyclable plastic wrapper; one side has evidence based forecasts, the other side has opinion.

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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55 minutes ago, ckn said:

It's getting annoying seeing all the Brexiteer MPs and commentators dismissing the forecasts created by the specialist Department for Exiting the EU based entirely on their OPINION.  Go on then, give us your worked forecasts that show it's wrong.  Your opinion is worth less than a disused unrecyclable plastic wrapper; one side has evidence based forecasts, the other side has opinion.

Oh come on, you know fine well that long term forecasts are also based on opinion and assumption. They may have a little more science behind them but ATEOTD they are underpinned by key assumptions which may or may not happen. They are an indicator at best.

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I’m not prejudiced, I hate everybody equally

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Just now, Derwent said:

Oh come on, you know fine well that long term forecasts are also based on opinion and assumption. They may have a little more science behind them but ATEOTD they are underpinned by key assumptions which may or may not happen. They are an indicator at best.

They're a stake in the ground.  You either accept it, or you challenge it.  Challenging it based on simply not liking what it says is daft.  Would the likes of Rees Mogg be complaining if they showed a healthy improvement in the UK for a hard Brexit?


“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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Just now, ckn said:

They're a stake in the ground.  You either accept it, or you challenge it.  Challenging it based on simply not liking what it says is daft.  Would the likes of Rees Mogg be complaining if they showed a healthy improvement in the UK for a hard Brexit?

Well yes I agree with that. My point is that people will hang their hats on whatever comes down in favour of their opinion, regardless of the substance behind it. A report gives a positive Brexit outlook, remainers rubbish it - a report gives a gloomy Brexit outlook, leavers rubbish it. It's all a bit nonsensical because, as I said, nobody actually knows what is going to happen. It is impossible to model it in any meaningful way as there are too many variables that could go either way.

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I’m not prejudiced, I hate everybody equally

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6 minutes ago, ckn said:

They're a stake in the ground.  You either accept it, or you challenge it.  Challenging it based on simply not liking what it says is daft.  Would the likes of Rees Mogg be complaining if they showed a healthy improvement in the UK for a hard Brexit?

Not just JRM, you could bet your house that if they did convey a positive message they would be quoted by ministers and all over the front pages of the newspapers.


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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4 hours ago, Bearman said:

An example of reporting bias.

On BBC news this morning the " Expert" was asked " Has peoples perception changed re the question of security being a big issue in the decision to leave?"

"Oh yes, back then 4 out of ten people did not think security was an issue, now that has shot up to ALMOST half of people thinking its not an issue"

I know you used the phrase almost but from 4 out of 10 to 5 out of 10 is a significant increase of 25% on the previous figure. Even if almost meant it was 20% that is still a significant change.

If he had said the figure

 


Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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52 minutes ago, Derwent said:

Well yes I agree with that. My point is that people will hang their hats on whatever comes down in favour of their opinion, regardless of the substance behind it. A report gives a positive Brexit outlook, remainers rubbish it - a report gives a gloomy Brexit outlook, leavers rubbish it. It's all a bit nonsensical because, as I said, nobody actually knows what is going to happen. It is impossible to model it in any meaningful way as there are too many variables that could go either way.

I haven't seen a positive report to rubbish.


Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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48 minutes ago, Derwent said:

Well yes I agree with that. My point is that people will hang their hats on whatever comes down in favour of their opinion, regardless of the substance behind it. A report gives a positive Brexit outlook, remainers rubbish it - a report gives a gloomy Brexit outlook, leavers rubbish it. It's all a bit nonsensical because, as I said, nobody actually knows what is going to happen. It is impossible to model it in any meaningful way as there are too many variables that could go either way.

I was taught years ago that there are three types of estimates:

- An estimate.  This is what an experienced professional does when there's not a certainty.  It has to be a credible estimate that's not going to be wildly wrong too often otherwise they'll no longer have a job.

- A guess.  This is what amateurs make, they often over- or under-estimate a problem and make predictions that are unsafe to use to make big decisions.  Often professionals will guess, but only in the worst of circumstances where the risk of not deciding is higher than moving ahead with a set of big unknowns, even then, they'll hedge their guess with plans to deal with the most likely variances.

- A wild-bottomed guess (WAG).  This is what people make up to impress others.  They've about as much credibility as boasting you can win a prize on the Lottery with one ticket; you COULD but you're not likely.  Politicians talking about anything other than their expense claims usually fit into here.

The report was an estimate using that criteria.  It's professional people making estimates using their professional experience in an intimately hostile environment where the wrong message could easily see you shot, that would make them be even more particular in backing up their report with facts rather than opinion.  This really is career ending stuff for someone if they got it wildly wrong.  A politician could get away with outright lies on the subject but the civil servants drafting it would be forever tainted as "idiot Brexit optimist/pessimist" if it went too far wrong.

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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Its a happy family running this show -

Philip Lee had written this - 

 


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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4 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Its a happy family running this show -

Philip Lee had written this - 

 

So he wants major decisions to be based on facts and evidence? I can see why that's not going to go down well with the brexteemist fantasists.


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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The reuters WTO correspondent reads a tweet from a legatum brain - 

 


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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8 hours ago, ckn said:

I was taught years ago that there are three types of estimates:

- An estimate.  This is what an experienced professional does when there's not a certainty.  It has to be a credible estimate that's not going to be wildly wrong too often otherwise they'll no longer have a job.

- A guess.  This is what amateurs make, they often over- or under-estimate a problem and make predictions that are unsafe to use to make big decisions.  Often professionals will guess, but only in the worst of circumstances where the risk of not deciding is higher than moving ahead with a set of big unknowns, even then, they'll hedge their guess with plans to deal with the most likely variances.

- A wild-bottomed guess (WAG).  This is what people make up to impress others.  They've about as much credibility as boasting you can win a prize on the Lottery with one ticket; you COULD but you're not likely.  Politicians talking about anything other than their expense claims usually fit into here.

The report was an estimate using that criteria.  It's professional people making estimates using their professional experience in an intimately hostile environment where the wrong message could easily see you shot, that would make them be even more particular in backing up their report with facts rather than opinion.  This really is career ending stuff for someone if they got it wildly wrong.  A politician could get away with outright lies on the subject but the civil servants drafting it would be forever tainted as "idiot Brexit optimist/pessimist" if it went too far wrong.

Problem is when it comes to Brexit nearly all of the 'experts' estimates of what would happen immediately following a vote to leave have been wildly wrong, making them look more like one of the wild bottom guesses. 

Brexit is completely new territory for everyone, so while the 'experts' will try to hang their hat on the smallest piece of evidence they can the reality is nobody can say with any real degree of certainty at this stage what a post Brexit Britain will look like. And it's always going to be like this until the terms of our future agreement with the EU is known when real facts and figures can be used to start calculating and estimating.


This is captain Juncker speaking. The EU gravy train is about to enter Brussels, so will all Brits please exit at the next stop

To all remaining passengers, thank you for your continued custom and contributions to my pension fund

Kind Regards - YOUR PRESIDENT !

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6 minutes ago, Saint Toppy said:

Problem is when it comes to Brexit nearly all of the 'experts' estimates of what would happen immediately following a vote to leave have been wildly wrong, making them look more like one of the wild bottom guesses. 

Brexit is completely new territory for everyone, so while the 'experts' will try to hang their hat on the smallest piece of evidence they can the reality is nobody can say with any real degree of certainty at this stage what a post Brexit Britain will look like. And it's always going to be like this until the terms of our future agreement with the EU is known when real facts and figures can be used to start calculating and estimating.

I can't find one report that says this, care to help?

 


Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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50 minutes ago, Saint Toppy said:

Problem is when it comes to Brexit nearly all of the 'experts' estimates of what would happen immediately following a vote to leave have been wildly wrong, making them look more like one of the wild bottom guesses. 

Brexit is completely new territory for everyone, so while the 'experts' will try to hang their hat on the smallest piece of evidence they can the reality is nobody can say with any real degree of certainty at this stage what a post Brexit Britain will look like. And it's always going to be like this until the terms of our future agreement with the EU is known when real facts and figures can be used to start calculating and estimating.

 

42 minutes ago, Padge said:

I can't find one report that says this, care to help?

 

Also the £70bn magic money tree quantitative easing always seems to get (conveniently) forgotten about. :rolleyes:

 

Edited by Griff9of13

"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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24 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

 

Also the £70bn magic money tree quantitative easing always seems to get (conveniently) forgotten about. :rolleyes:

 

You aren't accusing the Tories of manipulating the economy and not leaving it to drown in the free market are you. They would never do that, or so we are told.


Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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5 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Its a happy family running this show -

Philip Lee had written this - 

 

This is the government response to Philip Lee daring to suggest that major decisions be based on facts and evidence:

:fie:

 


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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17 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

This is the government response to Philip Lee daring to suggest that major decisions be based on facts and evidence:

:fie:

 

And they have the cheek to claim that Corbyn* is trying to shut up dissidents.

 

*I am far from being a Corbyn fan.

 


Visit my photography site www.padge.smugmug.com

Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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14 hours ago, Derwent said:

A report gives a positive Brexit outlook, remainers rubbish it

Would be nice to see such a report - the only one I've ever seen is by Patrick Minford, and I regard him as a lunatic.

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On 1/17/2017 at 6:04 AM, Saint Toppy said:

I've started a new thread because half the forum would want to see it on the Brexit Positive threat and the other half on the Negative thread

So finally May has clarified our position going forward:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38641208

 

We're leaving the EU completely and not even trying to keep hold of anything current. All our negotiations will be on agreeing a completely new deal.

In some respects probably the best way to go as it makes the negotiations easier with both sides effectively starting from scratch.

I’ve watched a few hours of Nigel Farage laying into those Euros a$$es in Brussels.  You have a great man there.  ???????

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2 minutes ago, The Manc Yank said:

I’ve watched a few hours of Nigel Farage laying into those Euros a$$es in Brussels.  You have a great man there.  ???????

What maintenance plan do you have for the structure of your bridge?

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Just now, The Manc Yank said:

My maintaince plan is Verizon. “The number one network in America’’  What about you?  

Do you find the all billy goat diet a tad monotonous?

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