End of the Union.

[Bedford Roughyed]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181

Quote

 

Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed she will ask for permission to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence. 

Ms Sturgeon said she wanted a vote to be held between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of the following year. 

The Scottish first minister said the move was needed to protect Scottish interests in the wake of the UK voting to leave the EU.

 

 

[Bedford Roughyed]

Would be interesting if the EU said to Scotland that they would remain....

[JohnM]

Good move. Off you go, Scotland. Just dont come to us with your begging bowl. 

[ckn]

If I were in Scotland I'd vote Yes with no hesitation at all if the question were the same as last time.

I saw an interesting thing at the weekend (that I can't find now...) that said Spain were sufficiently annoyed with the UK that they no longer would veto an independent Scotland in the EU or even oppose them being granted successorship rights if they gained independence at the same time as the rest of the UK left the EU.  That was the big one.

In reality, Scotland was bluntly lied to in 2014 by the Westminster parties and it was sold the concept of staying in the UK was the only way to stay in the EU.

The telling point for me is the news media.  The quite bluntly anti-independence media, such as the Scotsman, are now passive opposers at best and in many cases either truly neutral or passively supporting independence.

Additionally, HMRC figures showed that Scotland was the only region in the UK to have a net positive trade surplus with the wide world.  That's a lot of whisky...

[Robin Evans]

3 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Good move. Off you go, Scotland. Just dont come to us with your begging bowl. 

Project fear?

[Bedford Roughyed]

No. 10 says no? -

[Bedford Roughyed]

If the EU come up with some deal for Scotland, then that would be a game changer for me.  (border, single market, etc...)

However, my views on Scottish Independence is the same as the EU.  We are better together, no point in separating from biggest market, etc.

Polling shows that the least well off economic areas of Scotland are more pro-indy.  Which echoes brexit in that the areas that will be hit hardest seem to be the ones most likely to vote for it.

[Futtocks]

The North Sea oil business isn't bringing in the kind of money it used to, which may weigh on voters' decisions.

[Jasper]

Couple of weeks a go on Euronews, on a piece about Scotland, they were saying that Spain has said it will always veto an independent Scotland joining the EU due to the question of Catalonian independence.

[ckn]

The Greens in Scotland have also signalled that they'll vote for a new referendum meaning there's enough votes in Holyrood to ask Westminster for the referendum.

I don't understand the Tory issue though in the UK government, it's a win-win for them regardless of what happens.  If "Yes" wins then the Tories get an almost unassailable built-in lead in Parliament.  If "No" wins then the SNP will suffer electorally with the Tories far more likely to gain than any other party.  Is it just arrogance from May that she must oppose anything that is likely to make her look weak?

[Phil]

I'm with CKN if I were in Scotland I'd vote SNP like a shot, if only the north of England could go with them along with wales and Cornwall and cut the south adrift 

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, Jasper said:

Couple of weeks a go on Euronews, on a piece about Scotland, they were saying that Spain has said it will always veto an independent Scotland joining the EU due to the question of Catalonian independence.

It all depends on who you ask...  We won't know until they actually make a formal policy announcement.

[ckn]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I'm with CKN if I were in Scotland I'd vote SNP like a shot, if only the north of England could go with them along with wales and Cornwall and cut the south adrift 

The north of England has far more in common with Scotland than with the Home Counties and London.

[Phil]

Just now, ckn said:

The north of England has far more in common with Scotland than with the Home Counties and London.

Yeah exactly 

[Jasper]

8 minutes ago, ckn said:

It all depends on who you ask...  We won't know until they actually make a formal policy announcement.

It certainly does, but it also mentioned that Belgium, Italy, and I think Rumania all have secessionist movements of their own and have also publicly stated that they would all veto Scotland as well. 

Also, the last time this was discussed on here, wasn't there something about you can only apply to join the EU if you are a 'proper', stand alone, independent country, and not as Scotland wants to be - part of the UK one day and joining the EU the next.        Wasn't it mentioned that it takes about three years plus of negotiating to get into the EU, from the time that Scotland would declare its independence.  Could Scotland survive on its own for that long?  (I don't know, just wondering).

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, Jasper said:

It certainly does, but it also mentioned that Belgium, Italy, and I think Rumania all have secessionist movements of their own and have also publicly stated that they would all veto Scotland as well. 

Also, the last time this was discussed on here, wasn't there something about you can only apply to join the EU if you are a 'proper', stand alone, independent country, and not as Scotland wants to be - part of the UK one day and joining the EU the next.        Wasn't it mentioned that it takes about three years plus of negotiating to get into the EU, from the time that Scotland would declare its independence.  Could Scotland survive on its own for that long?  (I don't know, just wondering).

Fair points all.  The difference is that this time there's a genuine argument about succession rights and Scotland retaining the UK's position in the EU when the rest of the UK leaves.  It's actually a very fair point as well that I think the EU Parliament would decide quite favourably on and May's rhetoric with the EU countries would give them a reason to just be difficult over it with the UK.

[JohnM]

Certain northern areas have certainly cornered the market in chips....and not of the fried potato variety. Scotland can go, and the sooner  the better. But can they afford the compensation they will have to pay us for bailing them out, and for not giving me change on the bus to Murrayfield all those years ago?

[The Future is League]

If Scotland wants to leave so be it.

The end of English taxpayers money going to Scotland, and Scots working in England as they would be classed as foreigners the same as the Poles, Spanish etc

[Saintslass]

53 minutes ago, ckn said:

The north of England has far more in common with Scotland than with the Home Counties and London.

Erm, you speak only for yourself there!  I have as little in common with Scots as I do with the Home Counties and London.

[Saintslass]

59 minutes ago, ckn said:

The Greens in Scotland have also signalled that they'll vote for a new referendum meaning there's enough votes in Holyrood to ask Westminster for the referendum.

I don't understand the Tory issue though in the UK government, it's a win-win for them regardless of what happens.  If "Yes" wins then the Tories get an almost unassailable built-in lead in Parliament.  If "No" wins then the SNP will suffer electorally with the Tories far more likely to gain than any other party.  Is it just arrogance from May that she must oppose anything that is likely to make her look weak?

Why does it have to be arrogance?  Why can't it be that she is simply a unionist?  They do exist in the Tory party you know; in fact, most of them are unionists.  Unlike Labour, which is the party responsible for this ultimately as they opened the pandora's box north of the border.

[Hornetto]

Scotland is just taking control, getting its country back, laying the foundations for making its own laws rather than being governed by faceless mandarins hundreds of miles away...

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Would be interesting if the EU said to Scotland that they would remain....

Imagine we have a hard Brexit, WTO rules and an independent Scotland.  That would mean Scotland having tariffs to get into England.  That would be unfortunate for England and crippling for Scotland.

[Bob8]

7 minutes ago, Johnoco said:

I thought the Scotland independence vote was a 'once in a lifetime' opportunity? Clearly not.

So, the biggest factor in the last independence referendum was not whether they remained part of the UK but actually that they remained in the EU? I don't remember that being the main thrust of the argument at all. 

But, if its the will of the people then so be it, they should leave. Maybe they could have elections until they get the right result?

It could be that referenda are the result of political expediency.  

The Scottish referendum was meant to undermine the SNP, but actually Cameron et al managed to run the campaign so atrociously that they almost lost.  They scrapped a win, and thought themselves brilliant at this sort of thing, and thought they would slay the eurosceptics next. 

May has been encouraging Scottish nationalism.  Ideally, she wants a strong SNP and a weak UKIP.  A hard Brexit and encouraged Scottish nationalism does both of these things.

After taking the leadership, May declared that Scotland would have to approve Brexit.  This was canny, it gave May breathing space and meant the SNP would either not approve Brexit (and the evil Scots are to blame, quick! Vote Tory), or they would approve it undermining the SNP complaints about it.  Sturgeon did not fall for that, as she is not Corbyn.

Now, the SNP have to accept a referendum they will almost certainly lose.  This time, independence really might be economic suicide and people who dithered last time will be more attached to their decision.  The result is a vote to remain in the union and May is vindicated.  

I might not agree with her vision for the UK, but as a politician, I am genuinely in awe at how well she has played her cards.

[Wiltshire Rhino]

1 hour ago, ckn said:

The north of England has far more in common with Scotland than with the Home Counties and London.

This isn't just a northern thing. Anywhere in the UK, that isn't London and the Home Counties, has more in common with Scotland than London and the Home Counties. 

[nadera78]

4 minutes ago, Wiltshire Rhino said:

This isn't just a northern thing. Anywhere in the UK, that isn't London and the Home Counties, has more in common with Scotland than London and the Home Counties. 

Hang on a second, this London/Home Counties thing is winding me up. A kid growing up in London, somewhere like Acton for example, has absolutely nothing in common with a kid growing up in Buckingham or Windsor. They are worlds apart, and might as well be Martians in comparison.