EU Elections Thread

[John Drake]

2 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

No point promoting vagueries and half promises - I want to have a choice of parties who actually tell me what they are planning to do in Europe

If you find one, please let us all know.

[Griff9of13]

2 hours ago, Private Baldrick said:

But to be fair, what else do you expect these EU elections to be about? It's obvious they are going to turn into a de facto referendum. It's all fine and dandy saying they should be about the issues but we all know they wont be. Indeed, 50% of the people who have voted on this threads poll have stated they are voting differently to how they would normally vote.

We could just revoke Article 50 for the foreseeable as suggested? Then it couldn't be a leave/remain vote.

[Private Baldrick]

28 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

We could just revoke Article 50 for the foreseeable as suggested? Then it couldn't be a leave/remain vote.

You are right, we could just revoke A50.

The referendum was only advisory, our elected representatives can just vote to revoke at any time if they believe it is in the country's best interest to do so. No need for EU elections, no need for anymore referendums (note the plural gingerjon!) But there is no remain party with any backbone or anything to suggest such a thing. 

[Griff9of13]

1 minute ago, Private Baldrick said:

You are right, we could just revoke A50.

The referendum was only advisory, our elected representatives can just vote to revoke at any time if they believe it is in the country's best interest to do so. No need for EU elections, no need for anymore referendums (note the plural gingerjon!) But there is no remain party with any backbone or anything to suggest such a thing. 

If we revoke A50 we will definitely need the EU elections. Everything else I agree with.

FWIW, I think revoke, review and formulate an actual plan should a full and independent review conclude that there is a possible advantage in leaving would be the sensible way forward. As pro remain as I am we can't just leave the matter hanging.

[Private Baldrick]

7 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

If we revoke A50 we will definitely need the EU elections. Everything else I agree with.

FWIW, I think revoke, review and formulate an actual plan should a full and independent review conclude that there is a possible advantage in leaving would be the sensible way forward. As pro remain as I am we can't just leave the matter hanging.

Ooops silly me! Yes we would need EU elections.  

[foozler]

On 17/04/2019 at 14:13, Tommygilf said:

YouGov have

Brexit Party 27%

Labour 22%

Tories 15%

Lib Dems above Change UK on 9 and 6 percent respectively although both are below the greens on 10%.

My views on this:

TIGgers seem to just not be able to connect with public beyond a committed few. Its easier for the brexit party, their message has already got people to deviate from their party's line before; they've made the crucial first hurdle. Change UK need a stormer tbh otherwise they will be a centrist flash in the pan. They're main opposition and competition aren't the Brexit party, its Labour and the Tories. Getting the people who voted for Blair and Cameron to their side will be key if they're ever to be a force.

Brexit party needs to rally up as many voters as possible. Clearly they represent a large if not the largest minority in the country. What that translates to GE time however who knows. They'll benefit massively from protest votes.

Greens doing better than CHUK and the Lib Dems (admittedly only in this poll) is interesting. They've not deviated from their message and aren't tainted like the other parties are by association with the Tories and Labour.

If there was a General Election tomorrow, I seriously doubt any of the MPs currently sitting under the Change UK banner would be returned. I would expect the Lib Dems to continue their comeback, particularly in the South West, where IIRC Cameron had managed to nab a few seats for the Conservatives. As long as Corbyn is leader, I actually think Labour will shed a lot of votes to the Lib Dems as Remain voting Labour voters have realised that the messiah is actually not their friend on this issue. Whereas Vince is, (if they can just hold their noses long enough to vote for a man who served in a Conservative government).

TBH, if you think Parliament is in a state now, I think it will be worse after a GE. The Tories will be out of power, Labour will not have a majority, the Lib Dems will be a stronger group with an important role to play number wise. Labour will need a coalition in order to govern, but good luck getting either the Lib Dems or the SNP to agree to that with Corbyn in charge. And Corbyn will not go without the Labour party tearing itself apart. The Brexit party is a single issue party which will not win any meaningful number of seats in Parliament.

In short, no-one will be able to get a majority together and as with the WA, it will be stalemate.

 

[shrek]

7 minutes ago, foozler said:

If there was a General Election tomorrow, I seriously doubt any of the MPs currently sitting under the Change UK banner would be returned. I would expect the Lib Dems to continue their comeback, particularly in the South West, where IIRC Cameron had managed to nab a few seats for the Conservatives. As long as Corbyn is leader, I actually think Labour will shed a lot of votes to the Lib Dems as Remain voting Labour voters have realised that the messiah is actually not their friend on this issue. Whereas Vince is, (if they can just hold their noses long enough to vote for a man who served in a Conservative government).

TBH, if you think Parliament is in a state now, I think it will be worse after a GE. The Tories will be out of power, Labour will not have a majority, the Lib Dems will be a stronger group with an important role to play number wise. Labour will need a coalition in order to govern, but good luck getting either the Lib Dems or the SNP to agree to that with Corbyn in charge. And Corbyn will not go without the Labour party tearing itself apart. The Brexit party is a single issue party which will not win any meaningful number of seats in Parliament.

In short, no-one will be able to get a majority together and as with the WA, it will be stalemate.

 

Even if Labour did get a majority, I'd imagine the party discipline would be a nightmare, can only imagine the splits, wouldn't last 5 minutes!  Sorry realise this is abit off topic for the EU elections!

[Griff9of13]

Looks like the Tories are in for a kicking from both sides.

 

 

[gingerjon]

Lib Dems in 'not subtle' slogan shock ...

[Trojan]

1 minute ago, gingerjon said:

Lib Dems in 'not subtle' slogan shock ...

I can see where the Lib/Dems are coming from.  And I'm sorely tempted. But the thing is, say we do have another vote, who's going to persuade the millions who voted "Leave" because their lives have been wrecked  by austerity, to vote Remain?  They blamed this on the EU but it was the Coalition really.  IMO the severity of the austerity was quite out of proportion to the problem, and  made matters worse, not better.  And of course the Lib/Dems, in particular,  Clegg and Danny Alexander facilitated, even welcomed these very hurtful policies.  During the referendum, someone is going to pin this on the Lib/Dems  What will be their answer to these charges.  Is it all going to fall apart again?

[gingerjon]

1 minute ago, Trojan said:

I can see where the Lib/Dems are coming from.  And I'm sorely tempted. But the thing is, say we do have another vote, who's going to persuade the millions who voted "Leave" because their lives have been wrecked  by austerity, to vote Remain?  They blamed this on the EU but it was the Coalition really.  IMO the severity of the austerity was quite out of proportion to the problem, and  made matters worse, not better.  And of course the Lib/Dems, in particular,  Clegg and Danny Alexander facilitated, even welcomed these very hurtful policies.  During the referendum, someone is going to pin this on the Lib/Dems  What will be their answer to these charges.  Is it all going to fall apart again?

If it were me, I'd be going to straight to revoke. But it's not me so ... the polling (with all the caveats) shows a pronounced drift to remain and regret over voting to leave, not enough to guarantee anything but there. I honestly don't know how any second referendum would go because you simply couldn't rerun the last one and, as Steve May of this parish has said, I think it would be irresponsible to the point of criminal to offer an alternative that reality will prevent from being delivered.

[Just Browny]

15 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Lib Dems in 'not subtle' slogan shock ...

I wish these people would be honest and just say they want to stop Brexit.

[Trojan]

2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

If it were me, I'd be going to straight to revoke. But it's not me so ... the polling (with all the caveats) shows a pronounced drift to remain and regret over voting to leave, not enough to guarantee anything but there. I honestly don't know how any second referendum would go because you simply couldn't rerun the last one and, as Steve May of this parish has said, I think it would be irresponsible to the point of criminal to offer an alternative that reality will prevent from being delivered.

Certainly a poll on Peston last night showed a huge majority for Remain.  But it also showed a huge majority for Leave among Tory members.   Whatever the outcome of the negotiations between Theresa and Jezza surely these figures should urge Labour to get a deal while there's a deal to be got.  Because once Theresa's gone it's a pound to a pile of that Bozza will be the next leader.  Then god help us all.  The man has shown himself to be totally without scruples or morals for that matter.

[ckn]

And people intend to vote for these gibbering imbeciles?

 

[gingerjon]

3 minutes ago, ckn said:

And people intend to vote for these gibbering imbeciles?

 

Yes, she was on the radio this morning saying that because some relative that wasn't her was bombed out of Plymouth that meant we should leave the EU.

[SSoutherner]

6 minutes ago, ckn said:

And people intend to vote for these gibbering imbeciles?

 

So we have now got to the stage of saying Brexit will be bad but no where near as bad as the 450k WW2 deaths - phew those uplands sure look sunny

[ckn]

1 minute ago, SSoutherner said:

So we have now got to the stage of saying Brexit will be bad but no where near as bad as the 450k WW2 deaths - phew those uplands sure look sunny

I await my ration card with glee.  I hope it's a nice blue colour.

[Shadow]

8 minutes ago, ckn said:

And people intend to vote for these gibbering imbeciles?

 

I came close to joining the conservative party in 2001 so I could vote for her as leader.

As it turned out they made themselves unelectable without my help. 

[gingerjon]

2 minutes ago, ckn said:

I await my ration card with glee.  I hope it's a nice blue colour.

As people who are opposed to state intervention like to tell us, people were healthier under rationing.

The alive ones anyway.

[Farmduck]

Isn't it a pointless election campaign? Nobody knows what issues are coming up in the EU. EU members and/or parties can't introduce legislation. So what policies are people voting for? How are the candidates stating which way they will move on policy proposals about which they know nothing because nobody has told them which areas of policy are coming up? What is the voter supposedly using as a yardstick?

[SSoutherner]

21 minutes ago, Farmduck said:

Isn't it a pointless election campaign? Nobody knows what issues are coming up in the EU. EU members and/or parties can't introduce legislation. So what policies are people voting for? How are the candidates stating which way they will move on policy proposals about which they know nothing because nobody has told them which areas of policy are coming up? What is the voter supposedly using as a yardstick?

Well they can make clear statements on many subjects - the following are just a few areas the EU has to make decisions on going fwd

We are in favour / against moving farm subsidies to be based more upon environmental stewardship rather than output

We are for/against a move towards a a more federal Europe

We back/Oppose an EU naval presence in the med to deter / save migrants

We support/oppose close trade links with Turkey / Russia

It is as much as we ever get in Westminster elections anyway

We support tighter controls on banking/fin services OR we think light touch regulation is more efficient

We support an open internet / want to allow more control of Net publication

[gingerjon]

13 minutes ago, Farmduck said:

Isn't it a pointless election campaign? Nobody knows what issues are coming up in the EU. EU members and/or parties can't introduce legislation. So what policies are people voting for? How are the candidates stating which way they will move on policy proposals about which they know nothing because nobody has told them which areas of policy are coming up? What is the voter supposedly using as a yardstick?

It's a really good question and the fact that the UK electorate, myself included, probably alone in EU countries, can't give you a clear answer on that says a lot about why Brexit happened and why it was only after the vote that the search "what does the EU do" moved up the google rankings.

In the past, turnout has been very low and Ukip and the BNP have done very well. Before that, the Greens got their best ever results via EU elections. So it's always been a bit weird. And this time, it's obviously even weirder.

[Private Baldrick]

I am looking forward to seeing how the populist parties fair in other EU nations, to see if the shift towards an anti EU stance is gaining momentum on the continent and not just prevalent in the UK. 

[SSoutherner]

7 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

I am looking forward to seeing how the populist parties fair in other EU nations, to see if the shift towards an anti EU stance is gaining momentum on the continent and not just prevalent in the UK. 

If there is an EU wide drift towards anti federalist parties would a solid commitment to slow/stop EU further integration make you more willing to look at remaining part of the EU ?

[Private Baldrick]

5 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

If there is an EU wide drift towards anti federalist parties would a solid commitment to slow/stop EU further integration make you more willing to look at remaining part of the EU ?

Probably not. The EU has morphed into something way beyond what I am comfortable with and I can't see it ever deviating from its United States of Europe journey or becoming what I personally would like to see.