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Farmduck

2019 NRL Run to the Finals

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Conventional wisdom is that you need 28 competition points to finish in the top 8. Since 2010, team 8 has actually finished on 24 - 32 points but it's complicated because of byes. 28 is still a good target. Here are the numbers:

2010 - 30

2011 - 28

2012 - 28

2013 - 24

2014 - 28

2015 - 28

2016 - 27

2017 - 30

2018 - 32

 

Colour guide:

this colour means  No Bye points

this colour means  4 points for 2 Byes

this colour means 2 points for 1 Bye

 

2013 was only 24 because there were some stronger bottom-half teams. Sounds contradictory (strong bottom-half teams) but the teams finishing 9, 10 and 11 all won 11/24 games and even teams 12 and 13 won 10/24.

2018 was high, at 32 points, because there was no single dominant team. The top four all finished with 16 wins and teams 5-8 finished with 15. This year only 14 teams could possibly finish on 32 and 4 of them would have to win all their remaining (9) games and another 3 teams would have to win 8/9. So this year's target is realistically 28.

Assuming the 28-point cutoff, everyone is still in it but the Titans play the Storm twice and the Roosters. The Dogs will face a much easier schedule but they still have to play the Chooks and Bunnies so a 100% win rate seems impossible. The Broncos sit 14th but have a very soft run with only 2 games against serious contenders - Storm and Bunnies. They play the Dogs twice and the Titans once so they could very easily make the top 8.

The Cows are 13th but have to face the Chooks, Souths, Cronulla and Storm.

After this week's results I'll go into more detail about the road ahead for the maybe sides, the teams from 8-14, who currently sit on 14 or 16 competition points.

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Knight and Eels only just above your next time focus RF. There’s such a big group at this stage who might or might not make the finals that it augers well for the run-in for open minded NRL fans.


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57 minutes ago, Graham said:

Knight and Eels only just above your next time focus RF. There’s such a big group at this stage who might or might not make the finals that it augers well for the run-in for open minded NRL fans.

I think most teams are just making up the numbers to pad out the comp. When the Storm and Chooks get back to full strength I can't see anyone else as serious contenders. Eels have a relatively soft draw. The only teams above them they play are Manly and Knights.  Knights only play Manly and Easts above them so they could win 6-7 more games and finish on 30-32pts with a healthy +/-

It's possible the top 8 has already been decided and all that remains is jostling for seats. Sharks could win 6 more games, judging by a glance at their schedule, and there wouldn't be any Finals slots left.

 

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Souths are the team that have figured at the top along with Storm and Roosters since the NRL ladder has settled after the flurry at the beginning. They are still equal on points with Roosters. Their run-in to the finals:

image.png.d0c7c474b4f74475bb879578c0af832e.png

So a mixed bag of opponents including Storm and Roosters. If they have a real chance of the Premiership then they have the chance to step up and prove it.


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Just when I finally decided to flesh out this thread, Fox League has done it for me. I'm leaving out the Titans and the top 4 for now because I don't think they'll change much. See their comments and full breakdown here:  https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/the-run-home-smokey-emerges-as-battle-for-nrls-top-four-heats-up/news-story/ee67bc7f15aa932410e9919b81094b91

 

5 Manly Sea Eagles (22 points, 55 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): WLWWWL

Remaining games: Storm (A), Knights (H), Warriors (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)

3 0r maybe 4 more wins might get them to 6th. The 2 games against the Storm make this a tough run. I think they'll be safe in the top8 because the teams below them are so inconsistent.

 

6 Parramatta Eels (20 points, 11 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LWWWLW

Remaining games: Warriors (H), Dragons (A), Knights (H), Titans (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Very soft draw where every opponent is below them except Manly. They could win 5 games and finish in 5th spot which will grossly overstate their real ability.

 

7 Penrith Panthers (20 points, -49 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): WWWWWW

Remaining games: Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)

The form team of the non-top 4. I think they can win at least 5 and maybe finish 6th on +/-

 

8 Newcastle Knights (18 points, 11 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LLLWLW

Remaining games: Tigers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (A), Cowboys (H), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)

I can see at least 4 more wins and this could get them 8th spot on 26pts because the teams around them won't do any better.

 

9 Warriors (17 points, -34 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): WDWLWL

Remaining games: Eels (A), Raiders (H), Sea Eagles (H), Roosters (A), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Nope. I can only see 3 possible wins there, leaving them on 23pts. Nope.

 

10 Brisbane Broncos (17 points, -42 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): WDWLLL

Remaining games: Titans (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)

Should beat the Tights, Cows and Dogs and probably the Eels at Suncorp but that's only 25pts.

 

11 Cronulla Sharks (16 points, -9 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LLLLLW

Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (H), Panthers (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)

Key injuries: Josh Morris (Round 19), Josh Dugan (Round 19), Wade Graham (Round 21)

The Sharks have lost their last 5 by a total losing margin of 31 and in one of those games, against the Storm, they lost by 24. They are only a few missed goal kicks away from sitting in 4th spot. Of f all the bottom-half teams, I think the Sharks are the most capable of a winning run but I wouldn't put money on it. I think they'll finish 7th or 8th.

 

12 Wests Tigers (16 points, -68 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LLLWWL

Remaining games: Knights (A), Cowboys (H), Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)

I could see 4 wins here but 24pts and a negative +/- won't be enough. Average finish over the last 20 years is 9.5th and I think they'll finish 10th.

 

13 North Queensland Cowboys (16 points, -69 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LWBLLLW

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A)

I can only see 3 more wins for the Cows, taking them to 22pts

 

14 St George Illawarra Dragons (14 points, -100 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LLLWLW

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Eels (H), Titans (H), Sharks (A), Roosters (H), Tigers (H), Titans (A)

Widdop may be back in 2 weeks but I can only see 3 or 4 more wins taking them to 22pts. Last year, 22pts would have finished 10th and, in 2017, 12th.

 

15 Canterbury Bulldogs (12 points, -176 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): LWBWLLL

Remaining games: Roosters (H), Panthers (H), Tigers (H), Rabbitohs (A), Eels (A), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H)

I only included the Dogs because it's theoretically possible they may win all 7 and squeak in on 26pts if some of the teams ahead of them collapse. I predict this will be their one and only appearance in this thread.

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The club that again could, I repeat might possibly, maybe, perhaps, you never know, could defy that logic is Warriors. They have shown a bit of extra bite (pardon the phrase) recently. Of course you’d be daft to put your house on them. Even so ...

As you imply they meet plenty of  opponents in good form so yes three wins would likely be their limit and that’s not enough.

I suppose what I’m saying is that they are their usual selves.

Edited by Graham

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After Round 19:

I've cut the Dogs and haven't bothered to include the top 4 yet because they are all nailed on, IMO. The Storm will definitely finish on top and the other 3 have equally tough draws. The top 4 also have significantly better +/- than other teams so Manly or Parra would have to go on a brilliant run of wins to break into the club.

 

5 Manly Sea Eagles (24 points, 56 +/-)

Remaining games:  Knights (H), Warriors (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)

They could win all 6 and finish 4th but more likely win 5 and finish 5th. The final round game against the Eels could decide 5th and 6th spots.

 

6 Parramatta Eels (22 points, 13 +/-)

Remaining games:  Dragons (A), Knights (H), Titans (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Very soft draw where every opponent is below them except Manly. They could win 5 games and finish in 5th spot which will grossly overstate their real ability.

 

7 Penrith Panthers (20 points, -61 +/-)

Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)

They should win 4 more and finish 7th or 8th. Their +/- will make it difficult to leapfrog  Manly and Parra although they have two games - Cows and Dogs - where they could improve their points diff but not enough.

 

8 Brisbane Broncos (19 points, -20 +/-)

Remaining games:  Storm (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)

Should beat the Cows and Dogs and probably the Eels at Suncorp but that's only 25pts. They need to beat the Panthers and Bunnies to nail 7th or 8th spot.

 

9 Newcastle Knights (18 points, 9 +/-)

Remaining games:  Sea Eagles (A), Eels (A), Cowboys (H), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)

I can see at least 3 more wins and this could get them 8th spot on 26pts because the teams around them won't do any better. They're not helped by playing their toughest opponents away. If they only win 2 more they could finish 11th.

 

10 Cronulla Sharks (18 points, -7 +/-)

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Panthers (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)

The Sharks need to win all their home games and beat the Tigers in the final round to finish on 28 points. I don't think so. I think they'll win 4 and finish on 26 points but still ahead of the Tigers on +/-     My tip: 9th

 

11 Wests Tigers (18 points, -66 +/-)

Remaining games:  Cowboys (H), Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)

Oddly, the Tigers could be 8th this time next week if they beat the Cows. Brisbane play Storm, Knights play Manly and Sharks play Bunnies. could see 4 wins here but 24pts and a negative +/- won't be enough. Average finish over the last 20 years is 9.5th and I think they'll finish 10th. Believe it or not, there is even a scenario where the Tigers could finish as high as 7th, if the Broncos, Sharks, Knights and Warriors don't all keep winning and if Wests win 5 of their remaining games - not impossible, given a relatively easy draw.

 

12 Warriors (17 points, -36 +/-)

Remaining games:  Raiders (H), Sea Eagles (H), Roosters (A), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Dropped 3 places with the loss to the Eels. Very tough run ahead and even if they win all their home games and beat the Shirks that leaves them on 25 points which could be 9th or 10th. It is possible they might lose all their remaining games and finish 13th or 14th.

 

13 North Queensland Cowboys (16 points, -71 +/-)

Remaining games: Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A)

I can only see 2 or 3 more wins for the Cows, taking them to 22pts. Even if they beat all the current bottom-half teams and pull off an upset they would only get to 24 points with a bad +/-

 

14 St George Illawarra Dragons (14 points, -104 +/-)

Remaining games: Eels (H), Titans (H), Sharks (A), Roosters (H), Tigers (H), Titans (A)

Must win all 6 with a couple of big margins - maybe the two Titans games. Even then, they'd finish on 26 points and be relying on all the mid-table teams to fold. Next week I think we'll say goodbye to the Dragons.

 

 

Overall, teams 8-12, the Broncos, Sharks, Knights, Wests and NZers, could go any direction from week to week. Wests have the best draw of all of them so they may rise by default. Broncos look good on paper but they face 4 teams from the top 8. Sharks have a reasonable draw but they can't afford to lose the derby against St George or not turn up against the Warriors or Tigers.

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Interesting to see with some close finishes and Storm proving they can be beaten, and at home.

Once this top 8 is decided then who knows who the Premiers 2019 will be?


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The NRL has a ladder predictor where you can input your own predictions for the rest of the year, even adding the margins if you want.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/25/nrl-ladder-predictor-returns-in-2019/

I just picked winners and didn't bother with margins and this is what I got:

NRLLadderPredictor.thumb.png.e93fb4ddff60da5938e3a222d6ac81c1.png

 

I was pretty surprised to see Wests in 7th so I double-checked and it's a result of the teams around them having tougher draws. Most of the teams from 5-13 have to play each other so they can't all win every game.

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Fox League disagrees with me and thinks the Broncos can snag 8th spot with 25 competition points.

 

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1 Storm - 44

2 Rabbitohs - 36

3 Raiders - 36

4 Roosters - 36

5 Sea Eagles - 32

6 Eels - 28

7 Panthers - 28

8 Broncos - 25

9 Knights - 24

10 Sharks - 24

11 Dragons - 24

12 Tigers - 20

13 Cowboys - 20

14 Warriors - 17

15 Bulldogs

16 Titans

 

They're assuming the Broncos, Sharks and Knights will win 3 games each. I mainly agree but in 18 games, there will be at least 1 or 2 upsets.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/the-run-home-how-your-club-sits-and-where-they-will-finish-the-2019-nrl-season/news-story/6b05cf6ea89c73b1aa735fd020bab41d

 

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I read a predicted finish to the league somewhere yesterday FD and it had Wests Tigers at 12 or 13.

Mindst you it had them WLLLLL


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2 hours ago, Graham said:

I read a predicted finish to the league somewhere yesterday FD and it had Wests Tigers at 12 or 13.

Mindst you it had them WLLLLL

Issac Luke just got suspended for 3 games so I can't see the Warriors bounding ahead of them. Are Cows and St George suddenly going to remember how to play? Why, on this year's form, would anyone think the Fish, Knights and Horsies will suddenly be unbeatable?

Here's how BetEasy sees it:

843910827_2019NRLLadder.png.2c8a992312558cf14b7621f10753065e.png

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Not a betting man, but do the odds for a Manly Premiership look tempting?

Edited by Graham

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34 minutes ago, Graham said:

Not a betting man, but do the odds for a Manly Premiership look tempting?

Since T-Turbo has returned Manly look like they could beat anyone sometimes.


I still think we're looking at a Storm/Chooks GF but I don't know who'll win.

 

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Round 21 will sort out a lot of the ladder. Teams 1-4 play each other (play other top 4 teams) and teams 5-13 play other teams 5-13.  We already have 6 teams on 24 competition points or better so even the hypothetical chance of St George or Canterbury winning all remaining games and sneaking in on 24 points is too slim to bother with.

 

5 Manly Sea Eagles (26 points, 80 +/-)

Remaining games:  Warriors (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)

I think Manly will win at least 2 and finish 5th or 6th. I would expect a bounce from the Warriors in Auckland this week and I don't expect Manly to beat both the Raiders and Storm. Win 3 and finish 5th or win 2 and be 6th.

 

6 Parramatta Eels (24 points, 21 +/-)

Remaining games:  Knights (H), Titans (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Very soft draw where every opponent is below them except Manly. They could win 5 games and finish in 5th spot which will grossly overstate their real ability. Their biggest advantage is that they are 2 wins clear of the chasing pack and have a couple of games where they could put on 40pts.  They are two wins out of the top 4 and I don't think they can fix that. If they win 2 or 3 they'll finish 6th, win more than that and they'll claim 5th.

 

7 Cronulla Sharks (20 points, 8 +/-)

Remaining games: Panthers (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)

The Sharks could win all their home games and beat the Tigers in the final round to finish on 30 points, but I expect the Panthers to fire up next week and I think the Green Machine will be running like a Swiss watch by Round 24.

 

8  Wests Tigers (20 points, -42 +/-)

Remaining games:  Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)

The RL Gods will continue to smile on the Tigers for at least another week. The teams around them play each other in Round 21 so they can't all win. They could reasonably win 3 more and even a slight improvement in their scoring could protect them against finishing behind Panthers on +/- although the Panthers may only win 2 more. I've crunched a few scenarios and Wests look likely to finish 8th, mainly because I can't see any team below them winning enough. I'll happily accept "8th by default."

 

9  Penrith Panthers (20 points, -69 +/-)

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)

Best-case scenario: win 4 and finish 28pts, about 20+/-. This could be 6th or 7th and knock the Sharks and/or Wests out of the finals.

Worst-case: only 2 more wins - Cows and Knights - finish on 24pts with +/- irrelevant. Somewhere between 9th and 12th.

 

10  Brisbane Broncos (19 points, -56 +/-)

Remaining games:   Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)

Unusual situation here as their "hard" games are at home which should help but their "easy" games are away which could hurt them. I'm having trouble predicting the quality of Penrith and Parra - I think they'll win a few games but I'm not convinced they can beat top 8 teams. Broncos may only win 2 games but even 3 wins only gets them to 25pts, or an early holiday. They need to win 4 to snag 8th spot and probably 5 to get 7th or 6th.

 

11  Newcastle Knights (18 points, -15 +/-)

Remaining games:  Eels (A), Cowboys (H), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)

If they beat the 3 lower-placed teams they only finish on 24pts which might put them in a 3-way tie with Wests and Panthers for 8th spot. I think it's more likely that one of those teams will reach 26 or the Broncos hit 25 so 24pts might as well be nothing. Because they have 4 games against teams from 5 to 13, those are all "4pt" games.

A more optimistic view: They beat the Eels earlier this year and only lost by 2pts to the Tigers and Panthers. If they could regain some form they could win all 5 and finish 7th on 28 points.

 

12  Warriors (17 points, -70 +/-)

Remaining games:  Sea Eagles (H), Roosters (A), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

What a tough run. Even if they managed to win all 5 they would still only be on 27pts and it's possible that there would already be 8 teams on 28 or better. Let's be generous and say they'll win all their home games but that still leaves them on 21 points or basically nowhere. It looks even worse when you note that 11/19 games this year were against teams currently in the bottom 8, including 5  against teams in the bottom 4.

 

13 North Queensland Cowboys (16 points, -95 +/-)

Remaining games Broncos (H), Knights (A), Panthers (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A)

History suggest that the Cows need to win all their games by at least 12pts to finish equal 7th or 8th with a reasonable +/-. I can only see 4 possible wins - allowing for the Qld derby as a 50/50. Nope.

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I deleted the Cows this week because their best-case scenario would be 4 wins (including the Storm) to finish on 24 points. The problem is the 6 teams ahead of them who would all have to fold for the Cows to reach 7th or 8th. To put that statistically, you would need 4 games each week for the next 4 weeks to all go to the correct result. If any one of these failed, the Cows fail. On top of that, the Cows won't beat the Storm anyway.

I brought in the top 4 this week because they aren't as secure as they may have looked a few weeks back - secure in the finals, but teams 3-4 aren't secure in the top 4 anymore. Souths don't look great and the Raiders have 3 tough games ahead.

The Storm are nailed on for Minor Premiers. Home games against the Titans and Cows should put the Storm on at least 40 points, arithmetically impossible to run down.

Panthers v Broncos is the most important game this week as both teams are vulnerable to missing the finals. Manly v Tigers is important too because Manly need to watch their +/- and this game may be their only chance to run up a score

 

1.  Melbourne Storm  (36 points,  281+/-)

Remaining games: Raiders (H), Titans (H), Manly (A), Cows (H)

Only need one more win to clinch the top spot on +/-, Two wins seals it beyond all doubt.

 

2.  Roosters  (30 points, 196+/-)

Remaining games: Warriors (H), St George (A), Panthers (H), Souths (A)

Should win all 4 but even 3 wins and their healthy +/- should guarantee second spot. Fantasy scenario: They win all 4 and Storm lose all 4 and Roosters become Minor Premiers.

 

3.  Raiders  (28 points, 153+/-)

Remaining games:  Storm (A), Manly (H),  Sharks (A),  Warriors (H)

One of the hardest to predict. Tough draw where they could lose 4 and still finish 8th, lose 3 and finish 7th, win 2 and finish 4th or win 3 and finish 3rd or 4th. Of course, if they win 4, they could finish tied with the Chooks for second spot and rely on +/- which should be pretty good if they win 4.

Prediction: They'll win 2 and finish 4th.

 

4. Souths (28 points, 83+/-)

Remaining games:  Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Warriors (A),  Roosters (H)

This is the hardest of all. They didn't look good yesterday. Sure they had a few players out but no team is guaranteed to have their best 17 available every week. A full-strength Souths only beat the Doggies 14-6 earlier this year and only beat the NZers by 4. They can't miss the finals but they could drop to 6th or 7th

 

5  Manly Sea Eagles (26 points, 72 +/-)

Remaining games:  Tigers (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)

I think Manly will win at least 2 and finish 5th or 6th. I can't see any games where they could run up 50 to boost their +/- and that could cost them 2 slots on the ladder.

 

6 Parramatta Eels (26 points, 27 +/-)

Remaining games:   Titans (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Very soft draw where every opponent is below them except Manly. Parra have the best chance to advance to possibly even 3rd. If they win all 4 they'll be on 34 points, possibly equal with the Raiders and Souths and ahead of Manly, who might only win 2. I expect the Eels to win 3 and finish 5th or, if Souths collapse, 4th.

 

7  Penrith Panthers (22 points, -63 +/-)

Remaining games:  Broncos (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)

Best-case scenario: win 4 and finish 30pts, about 20+/-. This could be 6th or 7th and knock Manly or Parra down to 7th or 8th, depending on the Broncos performances.

Their bad +/- means they definitely need 3 wins because 2 wins could leave them equal on points with Sharks (and, unlikely, Wests) fighting for 8th spot behind the Broncos.

 

8  Brisbane Broncos (21 points, -52 +/-)

Remaining games:   Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)

I don't think they can catch Parra, given the relative difficulties of the two teams' draws. The 3 home games will help a lot, especially with Penrith likely to finish on 26 points and the Sharks maybe 26.

Best case scenario: Win all 4 + Manly lose 3 = Broncos finish 6th and get the home final.

Worst: lose all 4 and finish 10th after Sharks and Tigers snag one more win each.

Prediction: They'll win 2 and finish 9th on 25pts because the Sharks win 3 and reach 26,

 

9 Cronulla Sharks (20 points, 2 +/-)

Remaining games:  Dragons (H), Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)

The Sharks could win all their home games and beat the Tigers in the final round to finish on 28 points, but I don't think they'll beat the Raiders - that's a home game for the Fish but it's 2pm Sunday so a sunny afternoon should help the Green Machine. An important factor in their favour is their +/- which is 60pts better than Penrith and 40pts better than Wests. They definitely need to win 3 games because I think the Horsies will finish on at least 25 points. The Sharks will need 26 to knock Brisbane out of 8th or (if Brisbane win 3 games) to knock the Panthers out of 8th.

 

10  Wests Tigers (20 points, -44 +/-)

Remaining games:   Sea Eagles (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)

The main thing in their favour now is their +/- is 20pts better than Panthers. If they were somehow able to win 3 games they might just scrape into 8th but, far more likely 9th or 10, which could be decided in the last round against the Fish.

 

11  Warriors (19 points, -62 +/-)

Remaining games:  Roosters (A), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

I think the Broncos will sneak into 8th spot on at least 25pts so the NZers would need to win all 4 or win 3 by 15+ margins. With 3 away games? Nope. I think they'll drop to 12th or possibly worse if the Cows or St George string a couple of wins together.

 

12  Newcastle Knights (18 points, -21 +/-)

Remaining games:   Cowboys (H), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)

In theory they could win all 4 and finish 7th or 8th on 26 points. Their +/- is 40 points better than Panthers so that would help them. Anything less will not be good enough as Brisbane will probably finish on 25 and either Panthers or Sharks (or maybe even Wests) could finish on 26. They still have a reasonable chance of finishing 9th or 10th (in 2018 they were 11th) and 1 or 2 wins better than 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

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Thanks Farmduck - very interesting reading that

I think it will end up

Storm 

Roosters

Raiders 

Souths

Eels

Manly

Broncos 

Sharks

 

I will also stick my neck out and tip the Titans to finish bottom

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Panthers look like they’ll miss out on today’s performance against rivals for a spot Brisbane


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So here's the TL;DR:

- I think the top 3 are locked in.

- Warriors and Tigers are just fulfilling contractual obligations now.

- Finals spots 7 and 8 are still up for grabs and Newcastle, partly because of +/- are an outside chance. If Sharks stumble - they weren't good yesterday - the final round game between Knights and Panthers may decide 8th spot.

 

 

1.  Melbourne Storm  (36 points,  277+/-)

Remaining games: Titans (H), Manly (A), Cows (H)

They'll surely win 2 with only the Manly game a bit 50/50. 2 wins puts them clear on top with 40 points. Very slight possibility that they lose 2 badly and the Chooks draw level on points with a better +/- but I can't see it.

 

2.  Roosters  (32 points, 232+/-)

Remaining games: St George (A), Panthers (H), Souths (A)

Should win all 3 and finish 2nd. I can't see any other result. The Storm won't collapse and the Raiders and Manly play each other so they can't both win 3/3.

 

3.  Raiders  (30 points, 157+/-)

Remaining games:   Manly (H),  Sharks (A),  Warriors (H)

I think they win all 3 and finish on 36 behind the Roosters. Even if they lose to Manly this week they'll still be 3rd - even if they lose by 30. Worst case: they lose all 3 and finish 6th. Most likely: they win at least 2 and stay 3rd.

 

4.  Manly Sea Eagles (28 points, 92 +/-)

Remaining games:   Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)

They have beaten the Raiders, Eels and Storm this year. If they win all 3 and finish on 34 points they would be 4th, unless the Green Machine loses to the Warriors AND Sharks - possible but it's hard to see Canberra losing 3 in a row now. Worst-case: they lose all 3 and finish 6th-8th. I'm assuming Brisbane won't win all 3 so Manly will always stay ahead of them

 

5. Souths (28 points, 75+/-)

Remaining games:   Broncos (A), Warriors (A),  Roosters (H)

On the bright side, they can't drop out of the finals. They probably can't drop below 6th and a win over the Warriors would secure that. If they could beat the Broncos this week they may even secure 5th - this would limit Brisbane to a maximum of 27 points.

 

6 Parramatta Eels (28 points, 51 +/-)

Remaining games:    Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Parra could climb to 4th with 3 wins which isn't unimagineable. Even one win should guarantee 6th spot and possibly 5th if Souths don't pull a rabbit out of their hat soon. They had big wins over the Dogs and Broncos this year but lost to Manly less than a month ago. (That was a full-strength Broncos team as well.) I assume they'll repeat these results and finish on 32pts in 5th spot or 4th if they beat Manly in the final round.

 

7.  Brisbane Broncos (23 points, -40 +/-)

Remaining games:    Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)

I think they're locked in at 7th. Parra  only need one more win to stay ahead of them so we would need Souths to go winless for a slot to open up for the Horsies. In theory Panthers and Sharks could win all 3 and knock the Broncos out of the finals but I can't see Penrith beating Easts or the Fish beating the Raiders.

 

8 Cronulla Sharks (22 points, 8 +/-)

Remaining games:   Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)

The Sharks probably won't beat the Raiders which would leave them on 26 points but with the best +/-. Lucky for them the Panthers face the Chooks so will probably finish on 26 points at best.

 

9  Penrith Panthers (22 points, -75 +/-)

Remaining games:   Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)

Best-case scenario: win 3 and finish 28pts, about 20+/-. This could be  7th and knock Broncos down to 8th, depending on the Broncos, who could win 3 and finish on 29 or win 2 and land on 27. More likely: they'll lose to the Roosters and finish 9th or 10th depending on the final-round game against Newcastle.

Their bad +/- means they definitely need 3 wins because 2 wins could leave them equal on points with Sharks and Knights (and, unlikely, Wests) who both have +/- in the black.

 

10  Newcastle Knights (20 points, 15 +/-)

Remaining games:   Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)

In theory they could win all 3 and finish 7th or 8th on 26 points. Their +/- is 90 points better than Panthers so that would help them. Anything less will not be good enough as Brisbane will probably finish on 25 and either Panthers or Sharks (or maybe even Wests) could finish on 26. They still have a reasonable chance of finishing 9th or 10th (in 2018 they were 11th) and 1 or 2 wins better than 2018.

 

11  Wests Tigers (20 points, -64 +/-)

Remaining games:    Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)

Still have a better +/-  than Panthers. It comes down to this week's game against the Tin Men. Win and they could still end on 26 but their only chance at 8th spot would probably come down to the final round against the Fish - possibly that will be a playoff for 8th spot. If they lose against Newcastle then the most they could get would be 24 points and there will already be 8 teams on 24 or better so it would come down to +/-

Of the 3 or 4 teams who could tie for 8th spot, the Sharks and Knights have the best +/- by a long way. Tigers - maybe 9th but probably 10th

 

12  Warriors (19 points, -98 +/-)

Remaining games:  Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

The Warriors have a very, very slim chance of sneaking into 8th on 25 points but if they lose to the Sharks this week they could only reach 23 and the Sharks will already have 24 and the Broncos 23 with a better +/-. Then throw in the chance of the 3 teams ahead of them reaching 24 points and the NZers are gone. Their main goal now should be to have a big win over the Bunnies in their last home game.


 

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Thank you Farmduck. The Raiders win was the sort of  suprise result over the weekend. Souths gone off the boil or  could it be all to do with saving your best until the finals ? Still,  NRL grand final winner between Storm / Roosters outside bet Raiders  so the tables dont lie .

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I saw some mention last night about the Doggies' chance of reaching the finals. Fox League laid out the necessary steps for that to happen. Keep in mind that the Dogs can only reach a maximum of 24 points. The Sharks and Panthers only need 2/3 to reach 26pts and Newcastle and Wests need 3/3 - both possible, unlikely, bit not impossible - to reach 26pts. The Broncos only need 1/3 to reach 25pts. So, to reach a 3-way (or 4-way) tie on 24pts and get into the finals, the Dogs would also need to win their last 2 games by 50 points.

Anyway. here's the Fox League formula:

The 11 results which would need to go the Bulldogs’ way for them to qualify for the finals: ROUND 23

North Queensland beat Penrith   

South Sydney beat Brisbane

Warriors beat Cronulla

Newcastle beat Wests Tigers

ROUND 24

Parramatta beat Brisbane

Sydney Roosters beat Penrith

Canberra beat Cronulla

St George Illawarra beat Wests Tigers

ROUND 25

Canberra beat Warriors

Wests Tigers beat Cronulla

Newcastle beat Penrith

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