Dunbar Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I am a bit of a stats geek when it comes to Rugby League. I know they don't tell the full story but I think you can get an insight into both players and the overall game from stats. I have just had a look at the stats from 2011 (the first recorded on the site) and 2019 on the Super League website https://www.superleague.co.uk/stats/club-stats Each team played 27 games in the regular season in 2011 while this year it was 29 but when you average out the data you get an idea of some interesting trends in the game. Average tries per team per game fell from 4.6 in 2011 to 3.9 this year but the average clean breaks increased from 5.1 to 6.3. There was a big uplift in the number of tackles made per game - from 306 per game in 2011 to 325 this year while the average meters gained per team fell from 1,308 to 1,236. These tend to imply that defence and cover defence has improved over the last 8 years although this is offset by missed tackles rising from 22 per game to 35. Errors also fell from 13 per team per game to 11 this year. There is not a huge amount of difference between the two years in the stats above but one area which really stood out is runs from dummy half. In 2011, teams made an average of 31 runs from dummy half while in 2019 this has fallen to just 15... a 50% decrease. The most dummy half runs per team this year is Leeds with 21 per game while every single team in 2011 made more dummy half runs per game than Leeds did this year while Saints and Wigan made a whopping 45 and 38 per game respectively. This is a pretty significant change in the way the game is played. "The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby. "If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ant Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 More messing about in the ruck leading to fewer dummy runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunbar Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ant said: More messing about in the ruck leading to fewer dummy runs? The stat that wasn't on the site that would give us an insight into that is play the ball speed. You would assume that the faster the play the ball the more opportunity for an effective dummy half run. "The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby. "If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Hallucinating Goose Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 The decrease in dummy half runs is something I've noticed myself. I imagine that directly affects the reduction in metres being made as well. With defences getting stronger this could be leading to teams opting the throw the ball around more and earlier in the set, more offloading and trying to create a hole in the defensive line rather than trying punch through with heavy forward running. That would possibly account for the missed tackles and breaks. What is interesting if that was the case is the decrease in errors. With more expansive rugby being played and the ball being chucked about more you would think more errors would creep in which I guess suggests that ball handling skills are simply improving. Interesting stats Dunbar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LR23 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I'd noticed that at Salford but put that down to who we had playing rather than tactics. Lussick is excellent at powering over from close range but isn't really a broken field runner - more of a playmaker. Tomkins doesn't really have that in his game either. Maybe it is down to the fact that forwards are now smaller, quicker and fitter than in 2011? The game is much faster and with reduced substitutions the big impact forwards are not as common. Less space and gaps for dummy half runners to attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleD Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 4 hours ago, The Hallucinating Goose said: The decrease in dummy half runs is something I've noticed myself. I imagine that directly affects the reduction in metres being made as well. With defences getting stronger this could be leading to teams opting the throw the ball around more and earlier in the set, more offloading and trying to create a hole in the defensive line rather than trying punch through with heavy forward running. That would possibly account for the missed tackles and breaks. What is interesting if that was the case is the decrease in errors. With more expansive rugby being played and the ball being chucked about more you would think more errors would creep in which I guess suggests that ball handling skills are simply improving. Interesting stats Dunbar! Perhaps the Steeden ball is resulting in fewer handling errors or did we have that in 2011 too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleD Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 4 hours ago, Dunbar said: The stat that wasn't on the site that would give us an insight into that is play the ball speed. You would assume that the faster the play the ball the more opportunity for an effective dummy half run. The reduction in dummy half runs could be because fewer teams are having hookers on the interchange bench so don’t have that impact they used to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunbar Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 49 minutes ago, DoubleD said: The reduction in dummy half runs could be because fewer teams are having hookers on the interchange bench so don’t have that impact they used to That could be true. I think I am right in saying that Leeds have carried an interchange hooker on the bench for most of the year and have the most dummy half runs (although still fewer than every team in the 2011 season). "The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby. "If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleD Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, Dunbar said: That could be true. I think I am right in saying that Leeds have carried an interchange hooker on the bench for most of the year and have the most dummy half runs (although still fewer than every team in the 2011 season). I’m sure you are Statto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fighting irish Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 I really enjoyed this. Thanks Dunbar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost crayfish Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Interesting. The dummy half running trend is probably one NRL stats support too. The hooking role has evolved back to an 80 minute workhorse type, who is expected to offer some ball playing and kicking, but not so much running. Probably due to a combination of slower play the balls and interchange reduction, meaning two hookers are rarely used. I also think we see trends where players model themselves on the best, and for a while that's been Cameron Smith - not much of a scooter. Now Cook is lighting up the NRL, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift back to dynamic runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunbar Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, ghost crayfish said: Interesting. The dummy half running trend is probably one NRL stats support too. The hooking role has evolved back to an 80 minute workhorse type, who is expected to offer some ball playing and kicking, but not so much running. Probably due to a combination of slower play the balls and interchange reduction, meaning two hookers are rarely used. I also think we see trends where players model themselves on the best, and for a while that's been Cameron Smith - not much of a scooter. Now Cook is lighting up the NRL, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift back to dynamic runners. Overall, teams in the NRL make fewer runs from dummy half... an average of 11 per game in 2019. This is down from 13 per game in 2013 which is the earliest year of stats on NRL.com and lower than the Super League average of 15 runs from dummy half per team in 2019. The highest number of runs from dummy half is the Raiders with 17 per game (Super League is Leeds with 21) while the lowest is the Sharks with just 6 runs from dummy half per game (lowest in Super League is Catalan with 10 per game). The Storm are actually 3rd overall with runs from dummy half in the NRL (Rabbitohs are 2nd) but this will reflect contributions from other players and not just the style of the two hookers. I would have guessed the Raiders would have been high for example as they have some very good dummy half runners in Nicoll-Klokstad and Rapana. Individually Cook is 2nd overall in the NRL for dummy half runs with 85 while Can Smith is 15th with 54. "The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby. "If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunbar Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 On 16/09/2019 at 13:29, Dunbar said: I am a bit of a stats geek when it comes to Rugby League. I know they don't tell the full story but I think you can get an insight into both players and the overall game from stats. I have just had a look at the stats from 2011 (the first recorded on the site) and 2019 on the Super League website https://www.superleague.co.uk/stats/club-stats Each team played 27 games in the regular season in 2011 while this year it was 29 but when you average out the data you get an idea of some interesting trends in the game. Average tries per team per game fell from 4.6 in 2011 to 3.9 this year but the average clean breaks increased from 5.1 to 6.3. There was a big uplift in the number of tackles made per game - from 306 per game in 2011 to 325 this year while the average meters gained per team fell from 1,308 to 1,236. These tend to imply that defence and cover defence has improved over the last 8 years although this is offset by missed tackles rising from 22 per game to 35. Errors also fell from 13 per team per game to 11 this year. There is not a huge amount of difference between the two years in the stats above but one area which really stood out is runs from dummy half. In 2011, teams made an average of 31 runs from dummy half while in 2019 this has fallen to just 15... a 50% decrease. The most dummy half runs per team this year is Leeds with 21 per game while every single team in 2011 made more dummy half runs per game than Leeds did this year while Saints and Wigan made a whopping 45 and 38 per game respectively. This is a pretty significant change in the way the game is played. Thought I would provide a quick update on this post for the 2020 season. The big changes this year in the way the game is played is the 6 again law and the (temporary) removal of the scrums. This is reflected in the stats with the number of tackles per team per game rising from 306 per game in 2011 to 325 per game last year and now to 340 per game in 2020. Average metres gained fell from 1,308 in 2011 to 1,236 in 2019 but this has now increased back to 1,310 in 2020. These two stats are evidence that the ball in play time is increasing and provide more running and tackling. The runs from dummy half continue to fall. In 2011, teams made an average of 31 runs from dummy half while in 2019 this has fallen to just 15 and now in 2020 it is just 12 per game. Not a massive change in some of the other stats. Tries per team per game was 3.6 (3.9 in 2019) Clean breaks 6.1 (6.3) Missed tackles 33 (35) Errors 13 (11) "The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby. "If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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