Super League expecting to field investment offers in February

[CanadianRugger]

5 hours ago, Bob8 said:

I absolutely do believe it.

To put it another way, I see it as a saturated market.

I have moved around a bit in the western world and see many underdeveloped sports markets, but cannot see that applying to Ireland, Wales or England.

BT and Sky are interesting. The future of media is international, but the present is still largely national. The current model was based around the 1990s, I do not see it as a basis for future growth.

If the sports market is saturated (I agree it is in the UK) then that is all the more reason to expand outside the UK.

[Bob8]

54 minutes ago, CanadianRugger said:

If the sports market is saturated (I agree it is in the UK) then that is all the more reason to expand outside the UK.

That would indeed be one possibility.

I am assuming you are thinking of North America?

[Cowardly Fan]

7 hours ago, Bob8 said:

I am not sure your sentance is true in terms of a regular audience of approaching 10,000 people. In England in particular, the sports market is already very crowded.

London, Liverpool and Manchester are often seen as sensible targets, yet are already hugely crowded sports markets. The middle class are more available, but rugby league is not associated with social aspiration in the UK. As you state, football, but worse".

So, where is hte market?

It's often said that certain cities have a crowded market, but I've never seen any stats so I did some quick analysis looking at attendances for all UK football clubs in the top 4 leagues (granted in some cases RL, union  or other sports may have a reasonable following but this is the majority of the sports market) vs metropolitan populations.  Manchester, Sheffield and Liverpool are all ranked 5-10 (out of 36) for attendances relative to the metro population, so relatively high but on football alone London has 1/2 the penetration of Manchester and is below average overall.  

The other point is we don't necessarily need 10k fans.  If we're basing a club in a poorer area it may be, but in say Cambridge (lowest penetration of football fans in UK) the average income is higher and we could be profitable with say 6k with the right mix.  

[Bob8]

9 minutes ago, Cowardly Fan said:

It's often said that certain cities have a crowded market, but I've never seen any stats so I did some quick analysis looking at attendances for all UK football clubs in the top 4 leagues (granted in some cases RL, union  or other sports may have a reasonable following but this is the majority of the sports market) vs metropolitan populations.  Manchester, Sheffield and Liverpool are all ranked 5-10 (out of 36) for attendances relative to the metro population, so relatively high but on football alone London has 1/2 the penetration of Manchester and is below average overall.  

The other point is we don't necessarily need 10k fans.  If we're basing a club in a poorer area it may be, but in say Cambridge (lowest penetration of football fans in UK) the average income is higher and we could be profitable with say 6k with the right mix.  

Yes.

I mean, yes, you make very good points.

Having 10,000 relatively poor fans is not as economically good as 5,000 wealthy ones.

Yet, there is still a problem. London is a mass of small towns. It is several hours across, so the options are (broadly, forgive me that):
- A very affluent London audience in Richmond or Ealing for example
- A club with a huge pull that would have large numbers travel hours for a match.
We will struggle to be a middle class socially aspirational sport where rugby league is known. That leaves the option of being an alternative sport for young trendies, which is possible with festivals etc - but is not that easily accommidated into Super League.
And Highfiled were not able to get large numbers travelling for hours in the North.

To take Cambridge, we have a large student and transient population who have little attachment to the area. How would we get 6K to put their preconceptions aside? 

And, we are still left with the eternal struggle.

It makes sense that @CanadianRuggersuggests looking abroad, but North America is a bloody long way away, and hardly an uncompetitive market.
 

[Cowardly Fan]

44 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Yes.

I mean, yes, you make very good points.

Having 10,000 relatively poor fans is not as economically good as 5,000 wealthy ones.

Yet, there is still a problem. London is a mass of small towns. It is several hours across, so the options are (broadly, forgive me that):
- A very affluent London audience in Richmond or Ealing for example
- A club with a huge pull that would have large numbers travel hours for a match.
We will struggle to be a middle class socially aspirational sport where rugby league is known. That leaves the option of being an alternative sport for young trendies, which is possible with festivals etc - but is not that easily accommidated into Super League.
And Highfiled were not able to get large numbers travelling for hours in the North.

To take Cambridge, we have a large student and transient population who have little attachment to the area. How would we get 6K to put their preconceptions aside? 

And, we are still left with the eternal struggle.

It makes sense that @CanadianRuggersuggests looking abroad, but North America is a bloody long way away, and hardly an uncompetitive market.
 

Sure it's difficult and I'm not really coming up with answers, particularly in London I just don't know the city well enough and in the end I think you're driven more by availability of a ground rather than any other strategy.

Cambridge for example there are about 100k non students in the city and 260k in the metropolitan area, with minimal sporting presence, which is reasonable. I think you would need to do research on it - how does it compare for TV viewing figures, are their preconceptions and is that purely about being working class or is there something else putting them off? Then you can come up with a plan to give the games more of a upmarket image with other entertainment, street food festival or whatever. 

If we decided we needed to expand into a couple of new areas (and you'd likely need £10-20m to do it) then it's worth doing some in depth research on 10 different options before you start. Start with the macro data on population, growth, economy, sport attendances, etc then narrow it down to some for further research. Milton Keynes looks like an under served market as well for example.

I do think there are some opportunities still in the UK, even with the big football clubs they seem to be pricing out some fans and going much more international and day trip.  That may open up some potential and we may also get more of them as casual fans. 

[Bob8]

11 minutes ago, Cowardly Fan said:

Sure it's difficult and I'm not really coming up with answers, particularly in London I just don't know the city well enough and in the end I think you're driven more by availability of a ground rather than any other strategy.

Cambridge for example there are about 100k non students in the city and 260k in the metropolitan area, with minimal sporting presence, which is reasonable. I think you would need to do research on it - how does it compare for TV viewing figures, are their preconceptions and is that purely about being working class or is there something else putting them off? Then you can come up with a plan to give the games more of a upmarket image with other entertainment, street food festival or whatever. 

If we decided we needed to expand into a couple of new areas (and you'd likely need £10-20m to do it) then it's worth doing some in depth research on 10 different options before you start. Start with the macro data on population, growth, economy, sport attendances, etc then narrow it down to some for further research. Milton Keynes looks like an under served market as well for example.

I do think there are some opportunities still in the UK, even with the big football clubs they seem to be pricing out some fans and going much more international and day trip.  That may open up some potential and we may also get more of them as casual fans. 

Perhaps, but we are back to the old days of pins in a map. You are realistic and I applaud that. But, Cambridage has two pro soccer clubs and they have a dedicated fanbase. Rugby league will not inherently appeal to a different social niche. If we have about 100,000 a decent share of the market is about 5,000 crowd, with potential for about 10,000. Cambridge United are pretty much hitting that.

[Cowardly Fan]

1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

Perhaps, but we are back to the old days of pins in a map. You are realistic and I applaud that. But, Cambridage has two pro soccer clubs and they have a dedicated fanbase. Rugby league will not inherently appeal to a different social niche. If we have about 100,000 a decent share of the market is about 5,000 crowd, with potential for about 10,000. Cambridge United are pretty much hitting that.

Yes I'm still not sure to be honest if I had £20m that would be my priority, but IF we put pins in a map (or better had some actual investor) it's a good way to assess the potential and wastes some time while we're waiting for the season.  
I'd say just 1 professional football club and combined attendances seem to be less than 5k, plus you might get some of the wider population given there doesn't seem to be much sport there.  You might question why RL would be able to get more than football, but I'd hope a higher level of competition would help there.  

[Bob8]

4 minutes ago, Cowardly Fan said:

Yes I'm still not sure to be honest if I had £20m that would be my priority, but IF we put pins in a map (or better had some actual investor) it's a good way to assess the potential and wastes some time while we're waiting for the season.  
I'd say just 1 professional football club and combined attendances seem to be less than 5k, plus you might get some of the wider population given there doesn't seem to be much sport there.  You might question why RL would be able to get more than football, but I'd hope a higher level of competition would help there.  

I looked United up, then get about 4,300. Not too far off what would be expected.

The traditional approach to expansion has been to put a team in a new city and expect people to get excited when they see rugby league. The criticisms of this approach are that is has been shown not to work time and again, and it also assumes that people will independently judge a sport as entertainment on its own merit and choose their preferred one with no regard to the greater society they live in.

Let us be generous and say there are about 700-1000 sports fans in Cambridge. It is not enough. A good event might well make them turn up, but that would need a good stadium.

I had a slightly silly discussion on here previously, when I referred to Oslo (about the size of Liverpool) with about 2/3 million people, plenty of money, no major sports teams (no Norweigan league compares to the UK Premier League) and suitable stadia. That really is the contrast.

[Lowdesert]

20 hours ago, Bob8 said:

I am not sure your sentance is true in terms of a regular audience of approaching 10,000 people. In England in particular, the sports market is already very crowded.

London, Liverpool and Manchester are often seen as sensible targets, yet are already hugely crowded sports markets. The middle class are more available, but rugby league is not associated with social aspiration in the UK. As you state, football, but worse".

So, where is hte market?

I always thought Birmingham was neglected.  Plus, now we have the Jamaican team getting a small amount of publicity which would resonate with that community down there which is quite big.

 

 

[Bob8]

17 minutes ago, Lowdesert said:

I always thought Birmingham was neglected.  Plus, now we have the Jamaican team getting a small amount of publicity which would resonate with that community down there which is quite big.

Hosts two major soccer clubs and many in the surrounding area.

What can rugby league provide that Birmingham is crying out for?

[Lowdesert]

2 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Hosts two major soccer clubs and many in the surrounding area.

What can rugby league provide that Birmingham is crying out for?

I dont think anywhere is crying out for any sport. If someone offers a sport, others will engage if the opportunity and people running it are dedicated and enthusiastic enough.

There is ample opportunity for most to find what people need quite close to home, barring some wildernesses in Scotland, Wales, North Yorks/Lancs and Cumbria.  None the less, arrange a few free training sessions with any school and kids will play.

 

[Bob8]

51 minutes ago, Lowdesert said:

I dont think anywhere is crying out for any sport. If someone offers a sport, others will engage if the opportunity and people running it are dedicated and enthusiastic enough.

There is ample opportunity for most to find what people need quite close to home, barring some wildernesses in Scotland, Wales, North Yorks/Lancs and Cumbria.  None the less, arrange a few free training sessions with any school and kids will play.

Quite so!

I have spent most of my adult life involved in amateur rugby league, so I agree.

The post was wondering where big investors would see significant growth.

[del capo]

This thread is a great read. Well done  to all concerned.

Google Premiership Rugby CEO.

The outgoing man has seemingly joined CVC, with the new guy coming  from Doncaster.

CVC will have presented their vision for SL or Rob Elstone would not have made a statement that  in Feb there would be something more concrete to say ( work in progress? ). They are ruthless- see what happened to F1 . Work still in hand with RU.......

Has anyone  out there gone through any doors not open to  most of us to predict our future as a sport ?

I repeat my previous query.   Ultimate Goal ?

 

[iffleyox]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Hosts two major soccer clubs and many in the surrounding area.

What can rugby league provide that Birmingham is crying out for?

3 actually - there's no one in the east end of Sandwell that will tell you that they're anything other than Brummie - IIRC it's only very recently that at least part of the Hawthorns stopped being in Birmingham anyway (never mind the rest of the ground). Unless you're trying to suggest that Villa are not a major soccer club and only counting the Blues and Baggies? In which case, more power to you, you'd fit right in in the second city!

Also, since the dawn of the pro era, the city's leading union club has gone from top flight and gates of 14k to tier 3 and gates of about 700. 

There is little interest in rugby of either code (other than playing it - the number of clubs is holding up well) as a spectator sport, and what there is is siphoned off by Wasps if you live in the north or east of the city, or Worcester if you live in the south or west.

I'd love it, but it's not going to happen.

[Lowdesert]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Quite so!

I have spent most of my adult life involved in amateur rugby league, so I agree.

The post was wondering where big investors would see significant growth.

Bob.  I know that you know that I know, you have.  Personally, I’ve always thought London a step too far when Manchester and Brum were closer.  Just my thoughts.

The only realistic options imo, other than the NA teams, would be Newcastle area and Manchester.  I thought an opportunity missed with the Manchester Rangers bid and in the North East, a better chance with Newcastle and Middlesbrough (WC game and struggling football team).  Boro, Stockton, Darlo, Yarm are in a good commute and some efforts have been made in the past - but half cocked.