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And this is why you never allow finance folk who haven't proven they have a soul to run anything.

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Not to put too fine a point on it, from an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents.

 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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8 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

pretty scary but the chinese reduction shows hope (although equally the US infected rate looks suspiciously low compared to deaths when you look at other countries ratios)

There was a guy on the Nick Ferrari show on LBC from China who said that it was the measures put in place in Italy now that worked. Stop everything and accept the collateral economic damage in the pursuit of nipping the spread of the virus. Sitting back and hoping it all works out fine by aiming for a balanced approach won't work.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Two approaches to work with this. Do it as a world aiming to resolve the problem:

Or be the US and blame everyone else to try to deflect blame from inadequate planning and management.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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11 minutes ago, ckn said:

There was a guy on the Nick Ferrari show on LBC from China who said that it was the measures put in place in Italy now that worked. Stop everything and accept the collateral economic damage in the pursuit of nipping the spread of the virus. Sitting back and hoping it all works out fine by aiming for a balanced approach won't work.

those only work if everyone does it - otherwise you lock down for a month get it under control, reopen and someone brings it back in from abroad and you are back to square 1

I know a bit about this kind of epidemiology as my old school doctor was the world authority on flu outbreaks (specifically in closed communities) he used to tour the US every summer after he provided them the data showing that a countrywide flu innoculation as a matter of course every year was a waste of money (new strain comes in on a plane and poof there goes your investment and eh thought that repeated immunisation reduced natural resistance). So we used to not only get used as a testbed for treatments (we were the original human trials of amantadine as a possible retroviral) but also all the graphs of the years flu cases were displayed on the wall of the biology classrooms

 

In the 1970s, Hoskins and colleagues published three papers in The Lancet that suggested immunity against subsequent influenza infections afforded by natural influenza infection was more effective than vaccine-induced protection, and that repeated yearly vaccinations did not confer long-term protection. They evaluated adolescent boarding school attendees during four influenza seasons and concluded that annual repeated influenza vaccinations did not confer protection and termed this the “Hoskins” effect. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X98001236 (The school Dr was the Dr Hoskins in this article)

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42 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

pretty scary but the chinese reduction shows hope (although equally the US infected rate looks suspiciously low compared to deaths when you look at other countries ratios)

But at some point you have to let people back outside.  So there is a chance of a second spike.  It will only slow down once enough people have recovered and it can no longer spread to new carriers.

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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12 minutes ago, The Hallucinating Goose said:

Has anyone seen any stats for % infection of population per country? That's something I'd be interested to see. Am wondering which are the highest infected countries by % after I saw Denmark have over 500 cases now, so around same as here but they have a population of only 6,000,000 people. 

Iceland has over 80 cases with a population of 365,000

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48 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

pretty scary but the chinese reduction shows hope (although equally the US infected rate looks suspiciously low compared to deaths when you look at other countries ratios)

Well they've been notoriously under testing, but you could also say there's a lot of deaths for the amount infected, especially when theres been a lot in that care home in Washington

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16 minutes ago, The Hallucinating Goose said:

Has anyone seen any stats for % infection of population per country? That's something I'd be interested to see. Am wondering which are the highest infected countries by % after I saw Denmark have over 500 cases now, so around same as here but they have a population of only 6,000,000 people. 

My boxing coach and my wife both have coughs.

All training is cancelled.

Public sector workers are working at home or just not working if possible. That includes teachers, schools are closed for two weeks.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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15 minutes ago, The Hallucinating Goose said:

Has anyone seen any stats for % infection of population per country? That's something I'd be interested to see. Am wondering which are the highest infected countries by % after I saw Denmark have over 500 cases now, so around same as here but they have a population of only 6,000,000 people. 

On worldmeters.info you can sort countries by cases per million. Denmark is sixth after Italy, South Korea, Norway, Bahrain and Iran. I can't link directly as it's blocked on my works computer.

I think as the virus spreads we'll have to take the numbers with a pinch of salt. There's no way we can test everyone. We'll probably start using number of deaths rather than number of cases.

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19 minutes ago, fevtom said:

On worldmeters.info you can sort countries by cases per million. Denmark is sixth after Italy, South Korea, Norway, Bahrain and Iran. I can't link directly as it's blocked on my works computer.

I think as the virus spreads we'll have to take the numbers with a pinch of salt. There's no way we can test everyone. We'll probably start using number of deaths rather than number of cases.

I would assume that the USA is oddly low and that Africa is exceptionally low, even in areas of Chinese workers similar to Northern Italy. The figures are not really very comparable. But, it that is understood, there are trends.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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49 minutes ago, The Hallucinating Goose said:

Has anyone seen any stats for % infection of population per country? That's something I'd be interested to see. Am wondering which are the highest infected countries by % after I saw Denmark have over 500 cases now, so around same as here but they have a population of only 6,000,000 people. 

link

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said:

Seen reports today that Iranian figure is massively higher... being under reported. 

I think we can safely say any country who does not have a free press or who has expensive healthcare (comparative to earnings) will be under reporting 

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42 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I would assume that the USA is oddly low and that Africa is exceptionally low, even in areas of Chinese workers similar to Northern Italy. The figures are not really very comparable. But, it that is understood, there are trends.

USA is only oddly low because they're not testing. Wonder why it's celebs and politicians being put in the news on this? It's because they're getting guaranteed tests based on VIP status. I'm happy with senior politicians getting this but celebs should be back of the queue alongside estate agents and lawyers.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Just now, ckn said:

USA is only oddly low because they're not testing. Wonder why it's celebs and politicians being put in the news on this? It's because they're getting guaranteed tests based on VIP status. I'm happy with senior politicians getting this but celebs should be back of the queue alongside estate agents and lawyers.

Indeed. It is a perfect example of data not being comparable. Sweden is being very slack at testing and has a much lower number of cases that Norway and Denmark.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 minute ago, Bob8 said:

Indeed. It is a perfect example of data not being comparable. Sweden is being very slack at testing and has a much lower number of cases that Norway and Denmark.

There's a good run of clinical thought I've read that Italy testing everyone with symptoms early has snipped an even bigger problem. I can only really hope that it doesn't backfire massively on us limiting testing as we have.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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