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34 minutes ago, JohnM said:

This is not meant to be political and certainly not party-political;.

I watched her announcement: it was exemplary in concise presentation and explanation of the facts.

Similar explanation of the high figures reported in England today, catching upon reporting delays over the weekend maybe?

The figure are national numbers.

1  Given that these numbers are reported from individual hospitals/trusts/groups/regions etc, am I correct in assuming that the reporting authority has a better picture than the  single national figure picture, not just in ages. not just in presence of underlying heath issues. but maybe even down to place of residence postcode level, so that hotspots can be identified and investigated. Most public sector bodies use ESRI ArcGIS so that should be possible, I'd have thought.

2. Is there any sort of contact tracing going on?  

3. Recent sad news about the deaths of NHS  people seem to give the impression that they have succumbed through contact with patients. Is this in fact the case?

4. Finally, for this post, the thinking some weeks ago was to keep the schools open because overall, although risky, it was less risky overall than shutting them. After great public pressure and after invidious comparisons with what was happening in other countries,  they decided to close the schools -  with defined exceptions.  Now claims are being made that they should have kept the schools open after all.  https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/06/school-closures-have-little-impact-on-spread-of-coronavirus-study

 

 

1. It's the existing slow system that's not designed to give FAST results and has checks/balances to stop false reporting. Hospitals can do it immediately, the wider public health system is far slower.

2. No. None.

3. Yes. One GP in our patch died yesterday and another is on a ventilator. Both have no family or friends who have been symptomatic and both have done lots of patient work. Not seen any of the cases of NHS folk dying where it looks like community transmission. There may be some others unreported.

4. No idea!

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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8 minutes ago, ckn said:

1. It's the existing slow system that's not designed to give FAST results and has checks/balances to stop false reporting. Hospitals can do it immediately, the wider public health system is far slower.

2. No. None.

3. Yes. One GP in our patch died yesterday and another is on a ventilator. Both have no family or friends who have been symptomatic and both have done lots of patient work. Not seen any of the cases of NHS folk dying where it looks like community transmission. There may be some others unreported.

4. No idea!

With regards to that study about the school closures, if I’m reading it correctly, it seems to have focused on the very specific aspect of transmission caused by children being around other children in school but not looked at the reality of how children get to and from a school (etc), what happens when you put a lot of teachers, cleaners etc back together be so on ...

The point about needing to ensure children receive social and educational support is well made though. I’m seeing a massive difference between what’s available and how it’s presented for independent school pupils versus the more variable offer from state schools with fewer resources.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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This person is cleverer than me and has some comments on the schools closure report. The short version is: it’s the same press you get grumpy about for doing gotchas at press conferences doing gotchas again.

 

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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26 minutes ago, ckn said:

2. No. None.

No true.  We did a lot of contact tracing at first.  Remember the super spreader for example?  

Quote

3. Yes. One GP in our patch died yesterday and another is on a ventilator. Both have no family or friends who have been symptomatic and both have done lots of patient work. Not seen any of the cases of NHS folk dying where it looks like community transmission. There may be some others unreported.

You wouldn't know where they contracted the disease because the time it takes for those who succumb to die means these medical folk could have contracted it before the lockdown, even the semi lockdown, was put in place.  It can take up to four weeks for a person to get to the stage of death.

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8 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

No true.  We did a lot of contact tracing at first.  Remember the super spreader for example?  

I assumed he meant present tense.

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You wouldn't know where they contracted the disease because the time it takes for those who succumb to die means these medical folk could have contracted it before the lockdown, even the semi lockdown, was put in place.  It can take up to four weeks for a person to get to the stage of death.

Occam's razor. They caught it in service. No point being picky about it. We're still red across the board on PPE in our patch. You would get the bum's rush out of our patch if you started quibbling over how clinicans died of this disease at a time when we STILL DON'T HAVE ADEQUATE KIT.

Our GP was symptomatic on Friday, hospitalised Saturday and dead yesterday, that's not four weeks.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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If people STILL don't get it, Birmingham's regional morgues are now full and the new emergency morgue at Birmingham Airport is starting to be used.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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we need army on the streets and strict laws put in place that are the same for everyone not classed as essential workers, we have been working but just the same 2 of us outdoors until 4 rougharse roofers turned up on our job today, coughing and spitting all over the place, drove home just to see youths chasing each other round a park that is supposed to be closed, get tough and do it now- no exceptions - if those youths were taking 60 quid fines home to their parents things may be different.

see you later undertaker - in a while necrophile 

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Our country's leader is in good hands.

But enough about Dominic Cummings...

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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There's folk out there saying that we should abandon the lockdown on Monday coming as that'll be "when promised". Are they f***ing insane?

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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19 minutes ago, ckn said:

There's folk out there saying that we should abandon the lockdown on Monday coming as that'll be "when promised". Are they f***ing insane?

No, just infantile, self-centred and unable to read a calendar.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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12 minutes ago, Damien said:

When was that promised?

Johnson said 3 weeks to start then review.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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42 minutes ago, ckn said:

There's folk out there saying that we should abandon the lockdown on Monday coming as that'll be "when promised". Are they f***ing insane?

As insane as the person I know who's just been bragging on FB about how he's just finished his 13th shift in 15 days whilst recovering from Covid-19 symptoms...…..

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I love my ignore settings. Seeing those posts marked ignored and I have a little smile to myself. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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2 hours ago, graveyard johnny said:

we need army on the streets and strict laws put in place that are the same for everyone not classed as essential workers, we have been working but just the same 2 of us outdoors until 4 rougharse roofers turned up on our job today, coughing and spitting all over the place, drove home just to see youths chasing each other round a park that is supposed to be closed, get tough and do it now- no exceptions - if those youths were taking 60 quid fines home to their parents things may be different.

I recall that a significant proportion of fines are not ever paid. 

 

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39 minutes ago, ckn said:

Johnson said 3 weeks to start then review.

Johnson may well have said that, but he didn't promise.  That's the way the media works these days. An intention, a target, a wish, a hope.. all are thrown back by the media as "you promised'

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1 minute ago, JohnM said:

Johnson may well have said that, but he didn't promise.  That's the way the media works these days. An intention, a target, a wish, a hope.. all are thrown back by the media as "you promised'

Absolutely. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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It’s amazing what horrors humans get used to. Two weeks ago we were in horror at the Italian numbers we’re seeing in the UK today. Yet it’s here today and not really rocking us the same way. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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