BryanC Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Robin Evans said: It may not be a palatable concept.... BUT, if your brother was doing 30mph or less he wouldn't have got collared. The research is there with regards to the consequences of speeding and the rise in death rates from collisions as speed increases. Whether the police came up short in attending to your brother is an entirely different argument and not related to how he drives. Prior to the lockdown, GMP always seem to have resources available for the pie shop. Only time you see them out of the van round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Evans Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, BryanC said: Prior to the lockdown, GMP always seem to have resources available for the pie shop. Only time you see them out of the van round here. I always see them in tesco.... not a job I want or would do. But those I know doing that job are being expected to plait fog! Another essential service drastically starved of funding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanC Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Robin Evans said: I always see them in tesco.... not a job I want or would do. But those I know doing that job are being expected to plait fog! Another essential service drastically starved of funding. Another essential service that would rather spend time and resources on investigating off-colour comments on social media, rather than get it's hands dirty tackling real criminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Evans Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, BryanC said: Another essential service that would rather spend time and resources on investigating off-colour comments on social media, rather than get it's hands dirty tackling real criminals. How do you know they would "rather do that"? How much time and resources is spent on internet policing compared with detection hours in CID? Just to back up your argument... The local CID are chocka block with work. They would much sooner have more resources to do more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Evans Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I'm mindful this is topic de-railment so I'll draw this line here. Happy to resume should you feel the need to discuss on a dedicated thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 14 hours ago, Saintslass said: I think until mid March the overall death rate across the UK was about average for that time of year, any year, but during March the numbers crossed into being higher than average because of course flu usually subsides as the spring arrives whereas Covid does not seem to respect climate (or anything else). I actually find myself being a bit concerned about countries where Covid hasn't really hit hard because I wonder that once we come out the other side of this and we begin to open things up again, will the lack of exposure/illness in other countries create a second pandemic? Surely in order for us to be protected in the future we either have to find a treatment which helps get people better, develop a super effective vaccine or eradicate it completely from the whole world smallpox style? Unless it dies out of its own accord of course. The figures I've seen for total deaths in England and Wales during March are about 1000 (ca10%) up on the previous 5 years average. Whether that is a statistically significant difference (and due to Corona) I've no idea and until the statisticians crunch the numbers we won't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Interesting: Spain, one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, is beginning to ease strict lockdown measures that have brought its economy to a standstill. People in manufacturing, construction and some services are being allowed to return to work, but must stick to strict safety guidelines. The rest of the population must still remain at home. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52267376 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damien said: Interesting: Spain, one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, is beginning to ease strict lockdown measures that have brought its economy to a standstill. People in manufacturing, construction and some services are being allowed to return to work, but must stick to strict safety guidelines. The rest of the population must still remain at home. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52267376 Spain's easing looks a lot like the UK's current situation? Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, gingerjon said: Spain's easing looks a lot like the UK's current situation? That's true now you mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnM Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 France not easing up: President Macron to warn France must brace for extended lockdown 'well into May' in an address to the nation - even as the number of coronavirus deaths and intensive care patients fall https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8213535/President-Macron-warn-France-brace-extended-lockdown-May.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wholly Trinity Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 22 hours ago, Copa said: Australia is so huge we have a broad range of climates. Indonesia is hot and is currently ravaged by it. Their official count is low because they simply don’t have the resources to test. The Indonesian language media refers to people dying, being wrapped in plastic and buried without testing. Indeed Indonesia is difficult to predict how it will go. It has the potential to be devastating. The latest figures are: 4,557 cases 3,778 under treatment 380 recovered 399 deaths. There is a population of 260 million on a sprawling archipelago of 17,000 islands. However, 2/3 of that population live on the very densely populated island of Java, where the majority of cases have been reported. (315 of 399 deaths in Java, with 204 in the capital Jakarta alone). There is an advantage for isolation in that transport between the islands can be closed down. The responsibility for dealing with the outbreak has been delegated to local district governments. This means the rules and their application are very mixed. They did start self-isolation, social distancing fairly early in the piece, but there is practically zero capacity to deal with any severe cases. I'm in my 5th week of working from home. The stats from the official government source look rather strange. Testing is generally not available. The numbers are relatively small, for now, but the shape of the graph for new cases is very worrying considering, in theory, action has already been taken. http://covid19.bnpb.go.id Also, it is worrying that of those positive cases, more have died (meninggal) than have recovered (sembuh). This could be for a variety of reasons. It could be that they're only testing critical cases or that the lack of ICU facilities means that anyone who becomes really ill will die. The big challenge will be next month when, traditionally, people travel back to their home town / village for the end of Ramadan (Mudik). Politically, it will be very difficult to prevent this, but it could be just at the worst time for spread of the virus. The curve needs to be made extremely flat here, but how long can the current lock-down situation be sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 This would be pretty amazing if it worked (from BBC latest news): Raspberry Pi-powered ventilator to be tested in Colombia A team in Colombia is to test a ventilator made with a Raspberry Pi computer and easy-to-source parts. The design and computer code were posted online in March by a man in California, who had no prior experience at creating medical equipment. Marco Mascorro, a robotics engineer, said he had built the ventilator because knew the machines were in high demand to treat Covid-19. "I am a true believer that technology can solve a lot of the problems we have right now specifically in this pandemic," he told the BBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Copa Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Wholly Trinity said: Indeed Indonesia is difficult to predict how it will go. It has the potential to be devastating. The latest figures are: 4,557 cases 3,778 under treatment 380 recovered 399 deaths. There is a population of 260 million on a sprawling archipelago of 17,000 islands. However, 2/3 of that population live on the very densely populated island of Java, where the majority of cases have been reported. (315 of 399 deaths in Java, with 204 in the capital Jakarta alone). There is an advantage for isolation in that transport between the islands can be closed down. The responsibility for dealing with the outbreak has been delegated to local district governments. This means the rules and their application are very mixed. They did start self-isolation, social distancing fairly early in the piece, but there is practically zero capacity to deal with any severe cases. I'm in my 5th week of working from home. The stats from the official government source look rather strange. Testing is generally not available. The numbers are relatively small, for now, but the shape of the graph for new cases is very worrying considering, in theory, action has already been taken. http://covid19.bnpb.go.id Also, it is worrying that of those positive cases, more have died (meninggal) than have recovered (sembuh). This could be for a variety of reasons. It could be that they're only testing critical cases or that the lack of ICU facilities means that anyone who becomes really ill will die. The big challenge will be next month when, traditionally, people travel back to their home town / village for the end of Ramadan (Mudik). Politically, it will be very difficult to prevent this, but it could be just at the worst time for spread of the virus. The curve needs to be made extremely flat here, but how long can the current lock-down situation be sustained? I was watching Indonesian TV today and it was all about coronavirus.. they were also talking quite a lot about Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB). I have my doubts about the effectiveness. The article below even refers to home schooling using “media yang efektif”. Might work for a minority.... https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1329003/pembatasan-sosial-berskala-besar-berlaku-di-jakarta-ini-artinya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wholly Trinity Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Copa said: I was watching Indonesian TV today and it was all about coronavirus.. they were also talking quite a lot about Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB). I have my doubts about the effectiveness. The article below even refers to home schooling using “media yang efektif”. Might work for a minority.... https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1329003/pembatasan-sosial-berskala-besar-berlaku-di-jakarta-ini-artinya It seems everything is organised at kabupaten level so I can see massive differences in application. Somewhere like Makassar is impossible to police and control. Most things are for show, the reality could get nasty. The problem we have up here is with illegal workers sneaking back into the country from Malaysia etc. I think they've set up school lessons for all levels on TVRI. Not seen any as I no longer have a TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 UK death figure up 717 to 11329. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonM Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 23 hours ago, Damien said: Its interesting to hear from Liz Kendall regarding the fact that around half of Coronavirus deaths in Ireland are from deaths in Care Homes and how other countries include all Coronavirus deaths in totals. At present these deaths aren't counted in the UK Coronavirus death figures and we only count hospital deaths. This obviously distorts our figures somewhat. Interesting thread on why the coronavirus death rate in Ireland is less than half that of the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said: spent a lot of the weekend running round in the work van getting shopping and medicine for elderly associates, got pulled over and fined for having a brake light out - DO NOT EVEN SPEAK TO ME FOR 3 YEARS- SO MAD! Normally you'd get a warning and told to replace at asap, unless you came across as a bit of a Richard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, JonM said: Interesting thread on why the coronavirus death rate in Ireland is less than half that of the UK. https://mobile.twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259 Ireland did certainly start many of the measures much sooner than the UK and the message from Leo Varadkar was very clear. I watch and read quite a bit of Irish news and the difference was stark. Schools closed the week before St Patricks Day and St Patrick's day parades were starting to be cancelled from around 9th March, in both North and South, whilst Cheltenham and Super League was still being played. I also distinctly remember the weekend before St Patricks day when widespread images of pubs being packed in Dublin led to an immediate shutdown and drastic action as advice wasn't being followed. It was over a week before the UK followed with similar measures. I actually distinctly remember watching this speech on RTE on 12th March and for the first time the seriousness of it all really hit me: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-full-text-of-leo-varadkar-s-speech-1.4201041 3 days later was when much stricter restrictions came into play when the pubs etc were closed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim2 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 The BBC thinks we've got BEARS to deal with now as well: "I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclear-whether-recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-immune-to-second-infection.html World Health Organization officials warned nations across the globe against lifting government lockdowns to contain the Covid-19 outbreak too soon, saying that the coronavirus spreads fast and is 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic. “While Covid-19 accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly. In other words, the way down is much slower than the way up,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters on Monday. “That means control measures must be lifted slowly and with control. It cannot happen all at once.” “Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including significant capacity for contact tracing,” Tedros said. WHO was asked about using hydroxychloroquine, which is being tested in New York state and has been touted by Trump as a “game-changer” in treating Covid-19 even though the drug has not been put through a rigorous clinical trial. WHO officials said they are “eagerly” awaiting results from randomized controlled trials seeing whether hydroxychloroquine is effective in fighting the coronavirus, adding that there is currently no evidence it works. “There is no empirical evidence,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program. “There is no evidence from randomized control trials that it works, and clinicians have also been cautioned to look out for side effects of the drug to ensure that we do no harm.” Ryan also said it appears not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising questions as to whether or not patients develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.* “With regards to recovery and then re-infection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown,” Ryan said. * https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclear-whether-recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-immune-to-second-infection.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, ckn said: Only hospital deaths too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim2 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, ckn said: I think so, yes. remember the best case being 20,000? That may have been a maximum if we'd gone early and gone tough. All the handshaking, Cheltenham going, dithering, herd immunising policies have done is to at least double that number. "I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 From BBC Latest news: Covid-19 '10 times deadlier than 2009 flu pandemic' The disease caused by the new coronavirus is 10 times deadlier than the swine flu pandemic of 2009, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said new data from around the world was "giving us a clearer picture about this virus, how it behaves, how to stop it and how to treat it". "We know that COVID-19 spreads fast, and we know that it is deadly – 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic," Dr Tedros said at a briefing in Geneva on Monday. The 2009 swine flu pandemic, involving the H1N1 influenza virus, is estimated to have killed around 200,000 people around the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSoutherner Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 10 hours ago, Robin Evans said: How do you know they would "rather do that"? How much time and resources is spent on internet policing compared with detection hours in CID? Just to back up your argument... The local CID are chocka block with work. They would much sooner have more resources to do more. local copper was walking his dog (off duty) past our house and wife had a chat with him (from 6'+ away), she said "at least all the petty crime has likely calmed down" - he said "no worse than ever, burglary's from business premises and vehicles are through the roof, addicts are struggling to get gear, price has gone up and so they are breaking into all and anything to get the money for a fix - and this is in affluent Thames Valley. They are run ragged with all thw workload at present whilst obviously some of them are off sick/self isolating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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