Saintslass Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, ckn said: That isn't the understanding I got from the press conference today (and I have just listened to it a second time on I-Player to make sure). Vallance explained that the deaths will continue to rise but admissions to hospital appear now to be in the plateau phase in all but two areas (and those rises are small). Deaths will be a couple of weeks behind. The admissions chart showed a distinct flattening off of hospital admissions, in almost all areas, the south of England and east of England being the exceptions. But where the north west and north east/Yorkshire have also been exceptions, they are flattening off now too. If that flattening off is maintained, which is what the Vallance said he is hoping, then we are now actually IN the peak. The original forecast for hitting the peak was around Easter time. It was also said that the plateau could go on for a little while as has happened elsewhere with a reduction in numbers at all stages being slower than the increase (something that has been reinforced by the WHO today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintslass Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said: how many autopsies do you think are being carried out lately? There is a really, really good virologist who answers questions on the BBC programme which includes the daily press conference. He addressed the issue of deaths with covid and because of covid in answer to a question today. He is well worth listening to (it's on I-Player) as he is really good at communicating the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Evans Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Macron bans all leisure activities and social gatherings until at least mid-July. That's my hols blown ..... not like i wasnt expecting it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graveyard johnny Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I just put a great post on- just to cheer everyone up at this difficult time- its been removed by pathetic bedwetters- that's me done here- thanks for the times- but goodbye see you later undertaker - in a while necrophile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin Evans Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, graveyard johnny said: I just put a great post on- just to cheer everyone up at this difficult time- its been removed by pathetic bedwetters- that's me done here- thanks for the times- but goodbye Toodle pip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said: I just put a great post on- just to cheer everyone up at this difficult time- its been removed by pathetic bedwetters- that's me done here- thanks for the times- but goodbye I removed it, it was reported because it contained foul language. I felt it didn't deserve a moderating post as you should have known better. "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graveyard johnny Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ckn said: I removed it, it was reported because it contained foul language. I felt it didn't deserve a moderating post as you should have known better. I think that was an exception and would have brought wry smiles, theres a time and a place for everything even a bit of swearing- lets not stress each other to death- please no- its just silly fun see you later undertaker - in a while necrophile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Futtocks Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said: I think that was an exception and would have brought wry smiles, theres a time and a place for everything even a bit of swearing- lets not stress each other to death- please no- its just silly fun Still here? Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted. Ralph Waldo Emerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolford6 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Damien said: From BBC Latest news: "We know that COVID-19 spreads fast, and we know that it is deadly – 10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic," Dr Tedros said at a briefing in Geneva on Monday. The 2009 swine flu pandemic, involving the H1N1 influenza virus, is estimated to have killed around 200,000 people around the world. Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen. Under Scrutiny by the Right-On Thought Police Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbruce Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wolford6 said: Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen. It might not happen but only because of what’s been put in place. If we treated like the flu we’d be well past 2m dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GUBRATS Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, graveyard johnny said: I think that was an exception and would have brought wry smiles, theres a time and a place for everything even a bit of swearing- lets not stress each other to death- please no- its just silly fun I have had some bad language posts removed recently , I fully believed I was right in posting them and using the language I used , ckn was perfectly right to remove them , those are the rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 49 minutes ago, Wolford6 said: Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen. It's not garbage reporting, it's what the WHO said. You may disagree but it doesnt make the reporting garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GUBRATS Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Probably daft , but I actually feel guilty ATM , I'm self employed working on private houses , it isn't unusual for me to go three weeks without working at any given time , although it is mostly in winter So again ATM I'm at home , but will eventually receive from the Exchequer a ' wage ' , now I've spent 20 of the 21 days of lockdown sorting out my garden , again due to being self employed my garden has ended up looking like a mini tip , I was due to book a skip just after we were ' locked ' , but I digress , also having had a business where I had two 40 ft containers to store several years of junk , when the business ended I brought a small but sizeable amount of the junk home So tomorrow my 1960 ford 100e popular will again see the light of the sun on its red painted and rusty bodywork , now this would not have happened if I hadn't known that I was highly unlikely to work for 90 days , so just another 70 to go , still a few parts of the garden need sorting , so the ' guilt ' comes from enjoying spending 5 hours a day ( in some unusually good weather ) out in the sun Am I a bad person ? , Is the guilt warranted ? Strange times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim2 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 7 hours ago, Wolford6 said: Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen. Two things: 1. The spread of COVID-19 (contagion rate) is much higher than swine flu, around double 2. There would have been 2 million deaths without the lockdowns. Maybe many more. Look at the curves - the cases and deaths were going exponential. "I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolford6 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 7 hours ago, Damien said: It's not garbage reporting, it's what the WHO said. You may disagree but it doesnt make the reporting garbage. I'm not criticising the messenger;wishing no offence to any TRL contributor. I'm criticising the WHO, which is plainly trying to drum up some additional funding. Under Scrutiny by the Right-On Thought Police Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 54 minutes ago, Wolford6 said: I'm not criticising the messenger;wishing no offence to any TRL contributor. I'm criticising the WHO, which is plainly trying to drum up some additional funding. This virus is not the worst end of pandemic. On an individual basis, a death is a death. But, this is not a civilisation threatening pandemic, whereas a 1919 flu would be in this modern age. I think the main thing that this has exposed is inadequacies of response that would be far more serious if the virus were more serious. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damien Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Some figures from Europe regarding the percentage of deaths in care homes. It makes our figures truly terrifying when these aren't being included: Around half of deaths from COVID-19 are happening in care homes, according to data from some European countries. Figures from five European countries suggest that care home residents have accounted for between 42% and 57% of all deaths related to COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. The figures are contained in a report by academics at the London School of Economics, which focuses on Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium. This would suggest that the daily figures announced by the UK government are vastly under-estimated, as they only include deaths in hospitals where a patient had tested positive for the virus. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 I was going to post other graphs, but they're depressing as hell so decided you can go click yourself and read them if you need to feel awful. "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, ckn said: I was going to post other graphs, but they're depressing as hell so decided you can go click yourself and read them if you need to feel awful. The figure that's leaping out at me comes from this one: "Our data shows that of all deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to 3 April (registered up to 11 April), 6,235 involved COVID-19 compared with the 4,093 deaths reported on 4 April 2020 by [DHSC]" That's a 2,142 difference. Half again on top of the daily announced figure. Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, gingerjon said: The figure that's leaping out at me comes from this one: "Our data shows that of all deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to 3 April (registered up to 11 April), 6,235 involved COVID-19 compared with the 4,093 deaths reported on 4 April 2020 by [DHSC]" That's a 2,142 difference. Half again on top of the daily announced figure. That matches the French figures I saw yesterday where the true figure was about half again the deaths of hospital figures. "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fevtom Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Will these eventually be added to the totals that get announced daily on the BBC etc or are they forever going to solely be reported by the ONS? I was under the impression that they were eventually added to the official numbers even if there was quite a lag until at the daily brief Sir Patrick Vallance explicitly said his graph only showed hospital deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, ckn said: That matches the French figures I saw yesterday where the true figure was about half again the deaths of hospital figures. It's just a cold. There's no need for a lockdown. Old people die anyway. Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSoutherner Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823 Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures Prof Chris Whitty told the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing on that 92 homes in the UK reported outbreaks in one day. The Department of Health and Social Care later confirmed 2,099 care homes in England have so far had cases of the virus. The figures prompted the charity Age UK to claim coronavirus is "running wild" in care homes for elderly people. "The current figures are airbrushing older people out like they don't matter," Caroline Abrahams, the charity's director, said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjonn Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, fevtom said: Will these eventually be added to the totals that get announced daily on the BBC etc or are they forever going to solely be reported by the ONS? I was under the impression that they were eventually added to the official numbers even if there was quite a lag until at the daily brief Sir Patrick Vallance explicitly said his graph only showed hospital deaths. key is their available, and hence media will analyse and report. It's not lack of transparency. Would also be helpful if they could distinguish care home deaths. Although one would expect them to be higher due to the demographics of some care homes. It has always been said the true figure would be much higher... which is bourne out by the figures. The deaths and admissions to hospitals give a indication of what the pressure the NHS is under versus a key goal to ensure not overwhelmed statistical at least, if not emotionally. Personally for the Press Conf conference I'm not sure any of the stats are useful to be publishing... but if doing have to be minimal slides and use ones that give an indication of progress. The collection of wider numbers is difficult and hence why ONS does it the way they do. Wouldn't help give a day to day progress which hospital one's do. I guess depends if looking for a general trend to measure against or something to scare the pants off... I don't think any thinking person would be surprised by the real numbers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.