coronavirus

[gingerjon]

6 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823

Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures

Prof Chris Whitty told the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing on that 92 homes in the UK reported outbreaks in one day.

The Department of Health and Social Care later confirmed 2,099 care homes in England have so far had cases of the virus.

The figures prompted the charity Age UK to claim coronavirus is "running wild" in care homes for elderly people.

"The current figures are airbrushing older people out like they don't matter," Caroline Abrahams, the charity's director, said

It's absolutely worth stressing here that we're not simply talking about people who would have 'died anyway' or who are sitting around in chairs waiting to die having had their good innings. For starters, not all older people in care homes fit that description - some are simply there because they can't really live on their own any more but are otherwise absolutely fine. And, for seconds, care homes includes plenty of people whose disabilities or other issues mean they require warden support or similar but otherwise can go out and work, socialise, etc etc.

[redjonn]

Just now, SSoutherner said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823

Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures

yeah... although given the ons publish figures include all related deaths of any age plus the hospital deaths include all ages... I don't understand the headline or should say accusation.. as if trying to hide the numbers.

Personally I did't think it stands up to scrutiny, expect if want care home deaths reported separately as they are included in ONS/hospital deaths. 

I understand trying to put pressure on with regard care homes I think... but for me it was not hopefully as having somebody in a care home... just increased anxiety. Although personally the care home has all PPE needed and says no cause for alarm when I speak to them... but now it adds to worries and i wonder if I trust what say to me... so is that what spokesperson wanted.

I guess they could publish the hospital deaths by demographic but then the ONS figures normally do if drill down I think.

[SSoutherner]

2 minutes ago, redjonn said:

yeah... although given the ons publish figures include all related deaths of any age plus the hospital deaths include all ages... I don't understand the headline or should say accusation.. as if trying to hide the numbers.

Personally I did't think it stands up to scrutiny, expect if want care home deaths reported separately as they are included in ONS/hospital deaths. 

I understand trying to put pressure on with regard care homes I think... but for me it was not hopefully as having somebody in a care home... just increased anxiety. Although personally the care home has all PPE needed and says no cause for alarm when I speak to them... but now it adds to worries and i wonder if I trust what say to me... so is that what spokesperson wanted.

I guess they could publish the hospital deaths by demographic but then the ONS figures normally do if drill down I think.

i think it is lazy reporting.

 

It has never been hidden that the daily figures are NHS hospital figures and the ONS ones then add in the the figures from other sauces and sort out the NHS ones into a consistent format over time

[gazza77]

39 minutes ago, ckn said:

 

I currently have 3 statutory ONS submissions on my desk, waiting to be completed in the next week or so. All of them involve completing the return on paper, and have to be either faxed or posted back to them. I hope that the data capture techniques they're using for this are a little more timely and technologically advanced. 

 

Edit: for clarity, the submissions I have are not Covid 19 related. 

[SSoutherner]

1 minute ago, gazza77 said:

I currently have 3 statutory ONS submissions on my desk, waiting to be completed in the next week or so. All of them involve completing the return on paper, and have to be either faxed or posted back to them. I hope that the data capture techniques they're using for this are a little more timely and technologically advanced. 

 

Edit: for clarity, the submissions I have are not Covid 19 related. 

The ones i do for the labour market are faxed/emailed ot industry body then passed to KPMG who format etc before sending to ONS so I doubt it

[Damien]

Aw fax machines, how 90s 

[Wolford6]

Have we had the flu figures?

[SSoutherner]

6 minutes ago, Damien said:

Aw fax machines, how 90s 

well we email it to a fax number

[SSoutherner]

5 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

Have we had the flu figures?

Here is the place to look

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

[redjonn]

15 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

i think it is lazy reporting.

 

It has never been hidden that the daily figures are NHS hospital figures and the ONS ones then add in the the figures from other sauces and sort out the NHS ones into a consistent format over time

The  stats from ONS figures are quite comprehensive... as per normal

"Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes."

Of course these figures only go up to 3rd April. I think that tallies with a comment a few weeks ago from Vallance/Whitty that he thought the numbers would be 10% to 15% higher than hospital...

I just not sure that the journalist actually listen to whats said. As distinct from just thinking about their own question and agenda. Thus one wouldn't be surprised by the additional numbers.

It isn't lack of transparency for sure.

 

[Wolford6]

37 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Here is the place to look

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

Not presented in laymans terms. Seems like 10,000 flu deaths in the flu season Sept 2019 to April 2020.

[SSoutherner]

3 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

Not presented in laymans terms. Seems like 10,000 flu deaths in the flu season Sept 2019 to April 2020.

i took this as the main point of all of it - basically normal Flu is vanishingly small compared to Covid-19

• USISS Severe Respiratory Failure Centre (SRF) confirmed influenza admissions, UK No new admissions for laboratory confirmed influenza were reported in week 13 2020 among the six reporting Severe Respiratory Failure centres in the UK. Since week 40 2019 a total of 37 confirmed influenza admissions (13 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 7 influenza A(H3N2), 14 influenza A(unknown subtype) and 3 influenza B) were reported among ECMO centres.

[Damien]

Its very sad to read articles like this and its hard not to think our frontline staff have been badly let down:

Coronavirus: Anger over lack of PPE for nurse Gareth Roberts

A nurse who died after contracting coronavirus "paid the ultimate price" due to a lack of personal protective equipment, a friend has claimed.

Gareth Roberts, 65, worked as a nurse across the Cardiff and Vale health board area for over 40 years.

The husband, father and grandfather died in hospital in Merthyr Tydfil in the early hours of Saturday morning.

His friend said he had little to no protection against the virus. The health board has been asked to comment.

"He didn't have PPE. In the beginning he said he didn't have anything," his childhood friend Janette Leonard said.

"He had a paper mask, plastic gloves and a pinny, that's alright if you are making sandwiches but not when you are going to nurse people with the disease."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52272369

[Bedfordshire Bronco]

On 13/04/2020 at 06:39, Robin Evans said:

It may not be a palatable concept.... BUT, if your brother was doing 30mph or less he wouldn't have got collared.

The research is there with regards to the consequences of speeding and the rise in death rates from collisions as speed increases.

That is fair enough however.... 

If he had to wait 3 days to be interviewed around an assault then this suggests manpower / resources are scarce for the police 

If resources / manpower are scarce then there is a need to prioritise 

For me an unprovoked assault is something that can (and in fact did) have long reaching physical and mental consequences. At this time you need the police to be immediate in their time and concern.... It reassures people 

Therefore I suggest until a more rapid response to high impact violence crime can be effected then we should prioritise those at the expense of tackling 'minor' traffic issues

I agree there needs to be traffic police but it should be reserved for tackling serious traffic issues like drink driving / reckless driving / excessive speeding (more than say 20% above the limit) 

[Robin Evans]

13 minutes ago, Bedfordshire Bronco said:

That is fair enough however.... 

If he had to wait 3 days to be interviewed around an assault then this suggests manpower / resources are scarce for the police 

If resources / manpower are scarce then there is a need to prioritise 

For me an unprovoked assault is something that can (and in fact did) have long reaching physical and mental consequences. At this time you need the police to be immediate in their time and concern.... It reassures people 

Therefore I suggest until a more rapid response to high impact violence crime can be effected then we should prioritise those at the expense of tackling 'minor' traffic issues

I agree there needs to be traffic police but it should be reserved for tackling serious traffic issues like drink driving / reckless driving / excessive speeding (more than say 20% above the limit) 

Speed kills. Speed kills many many people. It is a priority.

Topic Derailment... start another thread on this. I'll happily contribute.

[fevtom]

"The UK's ONS has reported 16,387 deaths in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 - the highest weekly count since records began" - New Scientist

[gingerjon]

9 minutes ago, fevtom said:

"The UK's ONS has reported 16,387 deaths in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 - the highest weekly count since records began" - New Scientist

And this is what a journalist on Twitter has done with the data, to make that point:

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

43 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

Speed kills. Speed kills many many people. It is a priority.

Topic Derailment... start another thread on this. I'll happily contribute.

Tell that to the boy racers around where I live who think the current lack of traffic on the roads is a green light to race around our streets at crazy speeds. It used to be the Golf GTI mob, now it's Audi S-3's that are their weapon of choice.

[Bedford Roughyed]

1 hour ago, Wolford6 said:

Not presented in laymans terms. Seems like 10,000 flu deaths in the flu season Sept 2019 to April 2020.

But do 10,000 flu deaths equal the same in resource terms to 10,000 Covid? By that I mean the need for isolation wards, ventilation, staff, PPE.

Add on those who survive, but now have lasting lung damage.

I think comparing them could lead to false equivalence.

[SSoutherner]

2 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Tell that to the boy racers around where I live who think the current lack of traffic on the roads is a green light to race around our streets at crazy speeds. It used to be the Golf GTI mob, now it's Audi S-3's that are their weapon of choice.

I did see a newsitem the other day saying as trffic levels have dropped Mr Plod has been giving out more speeding tickets as people make use of empty roads. As a biker i can recognise the speed of the late night riders going passed on the motorway within hearing distance of my house

 

Best excuse though was Surrey plod apparently pulled someone on the m25 doing 135mph who tried to say they were driving that fast to reduce chance of catching coronavrus

[Padge]

1 minute ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

But do 10,000 flu deaths equal the same in resource terms to 10,000 Covid? By that I mean the need for isolation wards, ventilation, staff, PPE.

Add on those who survive, but now have lasting lung damage.

I think comparing them could lead to false equivalence.

A large number of vulnerable, health workers and others, have a flu jab each year which provides immunity.

 

[SSoutherner]

3 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

But do 10,000 flu deaths equal the same in resource terms to 10,000 Covid? By that I mean the need for isolation wards, ventilation, staff, PPE.

Add on those who survive, but now have lasting lung damage.

I think comparing them could lead to false equivalence.

all the info i can find says an average of 17k influenza deaths per year in the UK ranging from 1700 in 18/19 to 28k in 14/15 - so we are close on that annual average in a month as well as all the extra long term effects of this one on the lungs

[fevtom]

7 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

And this is what a journalist on Twitter has done with the data, to make that point:

These stats are really interesting because they'll also take into account an increase in deaths due to cardiac or cancer surgery being cancelled as well as presumably a decrease in deaths from traffic accidents and bar fights etc. Obviously there's always a bit of natural fluctuation but surely no one can think this is no different to the flu now.

I would be interested in seeing a comparison with a particularly bad flu season such as 2009 but I'm not sure if the ONS website has that information.

[MattSantos]

Singapore update.

100+ cases a day is now not astonishing. 300 odd last 2 days. Mega clusters in the dorms that house the foreign labourers etc

As of tomorrow, youre not allowed out without a mask. 300 dollar fine and the possibility of my visa being revoked! Woof!

They keep ramping up the guidelines, makes me wonder why not implement them all straight off the bat.

This is not ending any time soon. Anywhere.

[ckn]

18 minutes ago, Padge said:

A large number of vulnerable, health workers and others, have a flu jab each year which provides immunity.

 

It's also been a VERY mild winter with a far milder flu spike than normal. Add to that the recent social distancing and home isolating, the flu has just not had the environment to spread as it usually does.

There'll be a multi-year knock-on effect if people genuinely do keep up the handwashing and better hygiene on these stats.